Prospect for China-Korea Economic Relations

This paper briefly reviews the economic performance of China's economic reform starting in 1978, and which it presents personal views on the experiences of Korea's economic development and lessons for China's economic reform. The paper reviews the China‐Korea economic relationship, and explores both the opportunities of China's economic development for Korea and the prospects for Bilateral Economic cooperation. It is estimated that the Chinese economy will maintain dynamic growth for the coming decade. The 2008 Olympic Games and the 2010 World Expo in China will provide further impetuses for Chinese economic development. China's huge market and its rapid economic growth can help the further recovery and development of the Korean economy. At the same time, the further development of the Chinese economy can benefit from financial, technical and managerial support from Korea. The complementarities between the industrial structures of China and Korea will surely push their future economic cooperation into a broader and deeper stage. Bilateral trade will enhance the competitiveness of both nations in the global market and help them achieve mutual prosperity and development. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

双循环新发展格局视域下区际经济高质量协调发展研究

面对国际国内政治格局发生的复杂变化以及全球供应链不确定性增强,中国的经济增长动力向内需和消费方向发展,优化国内市场供需双侧格局,发挥中国市场规模优势和市场容量,构建双循环新发展格局势在必行.通过对中国三大区际经济发展水平对比研究认为东、中、西三大区际经济发展存在较大差异,城镇化水平有助于提升经济发展层次,中、西两大区际具有较大市场空间和发展潜力,是经济协调发展的重要改革重心,高质量协调发展须从促进区际协同机制、产业优化布局、构建消费体系等方面展开,快速整合资源,加快双循环发展布局,共促区域经济繁荣发展.     

China： Between Social Stability and Market Integration

I. IntroductionOver the past two and a half decades the Chinese leadership has succeeded in ensuring96 Giovanni B. Andornino, Russell G. Wilcox / 95 – 108, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2006 ?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic growth while implementing policies engineered to allow gradual integration into the world economy in a more or less managed fashion.1 Starting from a position of isolation and suppo…     

How will China shape the world economy?

We will provide an outlook for China's role in the world economy over the coming decades, an exercise which would not be possible without an analysis of the prospects for China's continued economic growth. Based on international and historical comparisons, we argue that today's China meets all three key conditions for continued economic growth, including a stable government that is supportive of a market economy; high and increasing quality of human capital, and openness to developed economies. Dependent on China's continued growth, we explore how China will impact many other economies through trade and investment, creating winners and losers in the world economy. Moreover, we argue that China will become a more active player in changing global economic governance not only through participating in reforms of existing institutions but also by leading efforts to establish new ones.     

Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

Political institutions,entrenchments, and the sustainability of economic development – A lesson from rural finance

This paper provides insights on the sustainability of economic development from a historical and political economy perspective. We demonstrate that China's rural financial policy in the 1980s was quite liberal in employing market mechanisms, supporting entrepreneurship, and encouraging competition. These policies were abandoned in the early 1990s and replaced by ubiquitous government interferences that shifted resource and policy priorities to benefit political incumbents. A large panel of survey data confirms that rural household access to finance decreased dramatically in the 1990s and that the statistical significance of economic entrepreneurial factors in determining credit allocation also fell. Further empirical analyses show that market economic conditions are not sufficient to explain these changes and the evidence is consistent with a political entrenchment motive during the political regime after the turmoil in the year 1989. Given the connection between entrenchment and underdevelopment, our findings raise the concern that China's political institutions' insufficient limits on the government could be a challenge for China to sustain its economic success.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective

This paper examines post-crisis export performance in Indonesia against the backdrop of pre-crisis experience and the comparative export performance of other Southeast Asian countries. It surveys trends and patterns of export performance, focusing on comparative experience in major commodity categories and changing revealed comparative advantage. It also examines the implications for Indonesia's export performance of China's emergence as a major competitor in world trade, considers market prospects for textile and garment exports following the demise of the Multi-fibre Arrangement, and explores the factors contributing to the post-crisis export slowdown. The findings support the view that Indonesia's poor export performance in the post-crisis era is largely supply driven. They strengthen the case for reversal of recent backsliding in macroeconomic policy reform, and for speedy implementation of the unfinished reform agenda. Prudent macroeconomic management, while necessary, is not sufficient to achieve rapid and sustained export growth in an era of rapid economic globalisation.     

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES: CHINA AND INDONESIA COMPARED

China's and Indonesia's development strategies have been compared with others, but rarely with each other. Radically different political contexts have produced both similar and distinctly different development patterns. Each using formal planning, Indonesia spurred radical reforms to promote growth, whereas China opted for incremental reforms to ‘grow out of the Plan’, as a political device and to discover what policies and institutions worked. Both strategies produced environments largely conducive to rapid development. Indonesia relied on a few economic technocrats to oversee development; China used decentralisation and party reforms to create a credible environment for non-state investment. Both shared concern for agricultural reform and food security; both opted to open up for trade—China gradually, Indonesia radically. Both did well in growth and poverty reduction following reform. China's growth performance is in a league of its own, especially since Indonesia's Asian crisis setback, but Indonesia had more equitable growth and survived a difficult political transition with, in hindsight, modest costs.     

How revolving-door recruitment makes firms stand out in land market: Evidence from China

The fact that firms seek political connections through revolving-door recruitment is widely acknowledged around the world. Using an original database including the information of listed firms' board members and parcel-level land transaction records, this paper documents how revolving-door recruitment makes firms stand out in China's land market. We show that firms with revolving-door recruitment receive special deals in land transactions, which are simultaneously reflected in the quantity and price of land. Specifically, connected firms buy more parcels and larger areas of land in the primary land market. Due to the particularity of industrial land, price discounts are only identified for commercial and residential land, while not for industrial land. Measuring economic activity by night light intensity, we find no evidence that land transaction under the influence of political connections has a negative impact on economic activity on land. Our research advances the understanding that the state-business relationship is an essential factor in resource allocation in an emerging market with government intervention.     

Does the Domestic Value Added Induced by China＇s Exports Really Belong to China？

Since 2001, the exports of foreign‐invested enterprises (FIEs) have accounted for more than 50 percent of China's total exports. As foreign capital occupies a high proportion of the total capital of FIEs, most FIEs' capital gains are foreign factor income. Although these gains are calculated as a part of China's GDP, they do not belong to China's national income. To determine the real contribution of exports to China's welfare, the present paper analyses the impact of exports on China's national income using a non‐competitive input–output model capturing processing trade. The results show that every US$1000 of China's exports generates US$506.8 of national income. The real contribution of exports to China's welfare is much smaller than what we expected. This suggests that China should endeavor to improve the gains from international markets or find another engine to maintain its economic growth.     

Promoting Private Entrepreneurship for Deepening Market Reform in China: A Resource Allocation Perspective

After more than three decades of rapid growth, China's economy is going through an important turning point, where structural imbalances in both supply and demand sides must be addressed for a more moderate and sustainable growth path. By focusing on the structural changes to its ownership, a central element in China's economic transformation under market reform, the present paper highlights the importance of private entrepreneurship in deepening market reform and, thereby, in driving economic growth in a more efficient and sustainable way. Based on a perspective of resource allocation and a conceptual framework of entrepreneurship, the paper elaborates on the evolution of the private sector and its performance in the context of ownership reform, making comparisons with the performance of the state sector. The analysis suggests that there is further room for more productive use of economic resources, especially capital, land and natural resources, by increasing the participation of private entrepreneurs in industries with high entry barriers in favor of state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, more competitive and equal access to productive resources through reform is needed to promote more productive entrepreneurship and to reduce rent‐seeking activities.     

Thirty years of legal and economic reform in China: growth,institutions, and laws

China's impressive economic growth over three decades has seemingly occurred in the absence of a strong legal system. This paper views China's reform process over the past three decades as one that has entailed a gradual introduction of market forces into areas of the economy, which requires both dismantling the structure of the centrally planned economy and developing market-oriented institutions. This paper argues that China's transition is premised on a set of informal, and increasingly formal, institutions that provided incentives during the process of gradual liberalization. Therefore, institutional developments were not absent. The exploration of the interplay between growth and institutions leads to the conclusion that continued economic growth in China will depend on implementing legal reforms better suited to the nature of the decentralized economy, hastened by the introduction of international economic laws and rules with greater global integration.     

非公有企业促进绿色经济发展战略研究

经过多年的改革,非公有企业已成为我国社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分并且给中国的经济发展带来了蓬勃的动力。绿色经济是符合可持续性发展目标的产业经济,绿色经济的发展与非公有企业之间的关系密不可分。基于我国非公有企业的发展现状以及我国的资源条件、经济环境,研究了非公有企业对我国绿色经济发展的积极作用及促进方式——发展绿色产业的产业链、帮助培养绿色科技人才并提供发展机遇与渠道、提升技术创新能力促进环境技术进步、吸引投资者对绿色项目进行投资、助力政府的绿色政策制度。通过对于促进作用的分析找出仍需加强的内容并给出相关建议——区域绿色经济发展协调性需加强、科技人才的管理方式需要创新、非公有企业监管存在漏洞、绿色创新质量及创新氛围尚待加强。     

The Role of Planning in China's Market Economy

This paper addresses issues raised in ‘The Background of China's Planning Institutional Reform’ circulated in advance of the International Conference on China's Planning System Reform, held on 24–25 March 2004 in Beijing. The discussion is structured around four topics: (1) the scope of planning; (2) the administration of the planning system; (3) methods of planning; and (4) the coordination of planning with market activities. A critical issue is whether the Chinese government is doing too much or too little in planning the broad range of activities in a market economy, and various policy options are examined in relation to this issue. A central conclusion is that as China's economic and political system evolves within the framework of the Five-Year Plan, the scope of planning will naturally reduce as the market sector replaces a number of activities formerly undertaken by government.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China

This paper designs a quasi-natural experiment for the identification of causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment-financing decisions using China's supply-side structural reform in 2015. We construct measures of asset reversibility across industries using China's national input–output flow table and match them with nonfinancial firms listed in China's A-share stock market from 2013 to 2017. We then use the difference-in-difference estimation strategy to investigate two-dimensional variations in periods (i.e., before and after 2015) and asset reversibility (i.e., high- and low-reversibility industries). The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty significantly impedes real investment and reduces net debt issuance for private firms, whereas no such effects exist in state-owned firms. Interestingly, however, economic policy uncertainty has no significant impact on firms' cash-holding decisions.     

Japanese Enterprises＇ Investment in China＇s Software Industry

I. Overall Conditions of Investment by Japanese Enterprises in China Starting from the 1980s, investment by Japanese enterprises in China has been growing continuously. In 2004, Japanese investors established 3454 firms in China, 6.15 percent more than in 2003. Contractual foreign investment amounted to US$9.162bn, 15.17 percent up from 2003, whereas the foreign investment actually used was US$5.452bn, up by 7.86 percent from 2003. In 2004, the number of newly established Japanese enterp…     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

Beyond privatization: Institutional innovation and growth in China's large state-owned enterprises

This article demonstrates that China's large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not stagnant fossils waiting to die. Under economic reform policies this sector has undergone large change due to enhanced enterprise autonomy, the impact of market forces, rapid growth of domestic demand for upstream products, strategic integration with the world economy and the state's policy to promote large businesses. China's large SOEs are developing new institutional forms that do not neatly fit into existing patterns. China is experimentally changing its institutions through a combination of central policy, local initiative and interaction with international investment. This presents a challenge to the “transitional orthodoxy” and to ideas concerning property rights in development economics. There is not a universal model of property rights and government action that works best in all circumstances. China's experience with the reform of large SOEs shows the diverse possibilities for effective industrial institutions.