The price and volume response to earnings announcements in the corporate bond market

We examine abnormal returns and trading activity in bond markets around earnings announcements. Previous work provides mixed evidence on the relative impact of positive and negative surprises and the degree of response in investment-grade and speculative-grade bonds. We find that these announcements convey value-relevant information for both positive and negative earnings surprises in both investment and speculative-grade bonds. We also document significant heterogeneity in the response across industries, with muted responses in both abnormal returns and trading activity for bonds of firms in the financial and utilities industries.     

The effect of option transaction costs on informed trading in the options market around earnings announcements

We investigate the effect of option market transaction costs (a form of market imperfection) on the ability of option implied volatility-based measures to predict future stock returns and volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. We find that the predictability is significantly stronger for firms with lower option relative bid-ask spreads. The effect is more pronounced around positive rather than negative earnings news. We find no significant effect of option transaction costs around randomly chosen dates when there is no clustering of major information events. Trading strategies based on option market predictors and transaction costs earn monthly abnormal returns of 1.39% to 1.91%.     

Evolution of market uncertainty around earnings announcements

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the dynamics of the implied volatility or implied standard deviation (ISD) around earnings announcements dates. The volatility implied by option prices can be interpreted as the level of volatility expected by the market over the remaining life of the option. We propose a theoretical framework for the evolution of the ISD that takes into account two well-known features of the instantaneous volatility: volatility clustering and the leverage effect. In this context, the ISD should decrease after an earnings announcement but the post-announcement ISD path depends on the content of the earnings announcement: good news or bad news. An empirical investigation is conducted on the Swiss market over the period 1989–1998.     

Increased market response to earnings announcements in the 21st century: An Empirical Investigation

We examine the role of concurrent information in the striking increase in investor response to earnings announcements from 2001 to 2016, as measured by return variability and volume following Beaver (1968). We find management guidance, analyst forecasts, and disaggregated financial statement line items are more frequently bundled with earnings announcements, and each of these items explains part of the increase in market response. Furthermore, collectively, these concurrent information releases explain a substantial fraction of the increase in market response to earnings announcements since 2001. This is in contrast to the decline in market response to management guidance issued separately from earnings and the much smaller increase in market response to analyst forecasts issued separately from earnings over this time. The findings indicate that information arrival at earnings announcement dates has increased significantly over the past two decades, and that key components of this are increased disclosures by management of guidance and financial statement line items and forecasts by analysts.     

The effect of the summer doldrums on the market reaction to earnings announcements

Hong and Yu (2009) document a significant decrease in trading volume and returns during the summer months. Given the tendency of noise traders to buy shares following both positive and negative earnings surprises (Lee, 1992), we hypothesize that reduced trading activity by noise-traders results in less of an earnings announcement premium during the summer. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find lower abnormal returns surrounding summer earnings announcements compared to non-summer announcements. We also find lower abnormal returns in the ten days prior to the announcement, consistent with less front-running by sophisticated investors. Finally, we show that these summer effects are stronger in recent years characterized by more online trading and greater noise trader participation.     

Options trading volume and stock price response to earnings announcements

We examine the effect of options trading volume on the stock price response to earnings announcements over the period 1996–2007. Contrary to previous studies, we find no significant difference in the immediate stock price response to earnings information announcements in samples split between firms with listed options and firms without listed options. However, within the sample of firms with listed options stratified by options volume, we find that higher options trading volume reduces the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements. This conforms with evidence that stock prices of high options trading volume firms have anticipated and pre-empted some earnings information in the pre-announcement period. We also find that higher abnormal options trading volume around earnings announcements hastens the stock price adjustment to earnings news and reduces post-earnings announcement drift.     

The fading stock market response to announcements of bank bailouts

We analyze the effects on bank valuation of government policies aimed at shoring up banks’ financial conditions during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Governments injected into troubled institutions massive amounts of fresh capital and/or guaranteed bank assets and liabilities. We employ event study methodology to estimate the impact of government-intervention announcements on bank valuation. Using traditional approaches, announcements directed at the banking system as a whole were associated with positive cumulative abnormal returns, whereas announcements directed at specific banks with negative ones. Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that individual institutions were reluctant to seek public assistance. However, when we correct standard errors for bank-and-time effects, virtually all announcement impacts vanish in Europe, whereas they weaken in the United States. The policy implication is that the large public commitments were either not credible or deemed inadequate relative to the underlying financial difficulties of banks.     

Trading volume in options and common stock around quarterly earnings announcements

This study examines trading in call and put options around quarterly earnings announcements and investigates whether the existence of these options affects the common stock trading volume response to these announcements. We find that the options trading volume reaction to earnings announcements is larger than the corresponding reaction in common stock. Consistent with the idea that options provide an alternative vehicle for trading on information, the existence of these options lowers the level of trading in common stock. Options also appear to offer investors an alternative method of taking short positions, as shown by the symmetric stock market trading volume reaction to good versus bad news for firms with listed options. In contrast, firms without listed options exhibit a larger trading volume response to good news than to bad news of similar magnitude.     

International market response to announcements of US macroeconomic data

This paper presents empirical evidence relating the announcement effects of US money supply and inflation (CPI and PPI) to Eurocurrency interest rates and the foreign currency markets (both spot and forward) for seven industrial countries over the period 1977–1982. The results indicate that unanticipated components of announced changes in money supply have a significant positive effect on Eurocurrency interest rates and a negative effect (implying dollar appreciation) on the spot exchange rates. Unanticipated changes in PPI have a positive significant effect on interest rates, a small surprisingly negative impact on spot exchange rates, and a positive effect on gold prices. The CPI has no effect on either market.     

Anticipation of quarterly earnings announcements: A test of option market efficiency

This study tests Chicago Board Options Exchange efficiency by examining option price behavior in the weeks surrounding a firm's quarterly earnings announcement. The evidence presented here suggests that a first-order autoregressive seasonal process describes quarterly earnings behavior and demonstrates that the information content of an earnings announcement is fully incorporated in option prices by the end of the announcement week.     

Informed local trading prior to earnings announcements

Do individual investors have better information about local stocks? Our results demonstrate that they do. Large trading imbalances by investors living close to a firm's headquarters predict the stock's earnings announcement return. Stocks with the most net buying by local investors average significantly higher market-adjusted announcement returns than stocks with the most net selling by local investors. This return difference is pronounced for small and medium-sized firms, but absent among large firms, which have significant analyst coverage. Local investors' information advantage comes at the expense of nonlocal traders.     

Strategic timing of annual earnings announcements: evidence from an order-driven market

Using Spanish data, this paper examines, for the first time, the differences in the intraday response of an order-driven market to earnings announcements made during trading and non-trading hours. We show that the speed of reaction depends on timing of the announcement: for overnight (daytime) announcements, the improvement in liquidity is (not) immediate. This finding could explain why Spanish firms prefer to release the bad (good) earnings announcement in trading (non-trading) hours. This strategic timing differs from the traditional disclosure policy in American markets, suggesting that different microstructures may react differently to news releases and, consequently, drive the strategic timing of corporate disclosures.

The CDS market reaction to restatement announcements

I investigate the credit market's reaction to restatement announcements through changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. I document an overall positive association between CDS returns and restatement announcements. Specifically, I find that more positive CDS returns are associated with restatements (1) involving fraud and (2) affecting more accounts. Moreover, these reactions are sensitive to the underlying entities’ credit ratings and the market‐wide investor sentiment. Next, I compare CDS and stock market reactions and find that more negative stock returns are associated with restatements (1) involving fraud and (2) decreasing reported income.     

Insider trading and response to earnings announcements: the impact of accelerated disclosure requirements

This paper contributes to the debate on the consequences of increased disclosure regulation by investigating the effects of expedited reporting requirements of Form 4 filings, mandated by the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX), on the market response to earnings announcements. We first confirm that SOX reduces opportunistic insider trading without deterring insider trading due to diversification needs, and that post-SOX, opportunistic insider trades more strongly reveal upcoming earnings surprises. We then document that, at the earnings announcement date, earnings response coefficients (ERCs) are lower when earnings are preceded by opportunistic insider trades. We conclude that accelerated disclosures of insider transactions mandated by SOX lend to more informationally efficient prices prior to earnings announcements. Our findings stand as one piece of evidence suggesting positive externalities from recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosure regulation and add to the scarce evidence on the consequences of changes in Form 4 filing requirements.     

Short sales constraints and price adjustments to earnings announcements: Evidence from the Hong Kong market

This study examines how short sales constraints affect the stock price adjustment to the release of public information in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Using a unique feature of this market that allows us to directly investigate the impact of short sales restriction, we find the following. First, non-shortable stocks react more strongly to the publication of negative information than shortable stocks do. Second, non-shortable stocks are overpriced before negative earnings announcements. Hence, part of the strong market reaction of non-shortable stocks on announcement day could be due to the correction of such overpricing. Third, the prices of non-shortable stocks reverse following the announcement of negative information, suggesting that investors overreact to negative information on announcement day. Fourth, it takes longer for the prices of non-shortable stocks to adjust to negative earnings information. On the whole, our results support the research that finds short sales restrictions reduce the efficiency of stock markets.     

The effect of restatements on trading volume reactions to earnings announcements

This paper examines whether restatements affect trading volume reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. It closely follows the theoretical model developed by Kim and Verrecchia (J Account Econ 24:395–419, 1997) that decomposes the trading volume reactions around earnings announcements into the effects of pre-disclosure and event-period private information, and examines whether restatements change the trading volume reactions to earnings announcements in the post-restatement period. We find that restatements increase the degree of differential event-period information, leading to more divergent interpretation of earnings announcements subsequent to restatements. We also find that investors have less differential pre-disclosure private information in the post-restatement period, consistent with the view that investors’ beliefs converge when facing higher uncertainty in the information environment. Finally, focusing on irregularity restatement firms, we document that the effect of restatements on trading volume is more pronounced for firms announcing restatements after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act and after dismissing auditors and experiencing executive turnover. Overall, these results indicate that restatements affect investors’ behavior in forming judgments regarding earnings announcements.     

Detecting news in aggregate accounting earnings: implications for stock market valuation

How much news is there in aggregate accounting earnings? I provide evidence that earnings changes at the stock market level are correlated with new information about not only expected future cash flows but also discount rates. A comprehensive investigation of the link to discount rates reveals that aggregate earnings changes are tied to news about all components of the expected future stock market return, i.e., the real riskless rate, expected inflation, and the expected equity risk premium. Over the sample period studied, cash flow news and discount rate news in aggregate earnings changes covary positively and have offsetting impacts on stock market prices. As a result, stock market prices appear to be insensitive to aggregate earnings changes. The findings highlight the importance of separating cash flow news from discount rate news when evaluating the information content of accounting earnings at the stock market level. Overall, my study sheds new light on the informativeness and relevance of accounting earnings for valuation at the stock market level.     

Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?

We use a residual income valuation framework to compare equity valuation implications of four approaches to employee stock options (ESOs) accounting: APB 25 “recognize nothing”, SFAS 123 (revised) “recognize ESO expense”, FASB Exposure Draft “recognize and expense ESO asset” and “recognize ESO asset and liability”. Theoretical analysis shows only grant date recognition of an asset and liability, and subsequent marking-to-market of the liability, results in accounting numbers that capture the dilution effects of ESOs on current shareholder value. Out-of-sample equity market value prediction tests and in-sample comparisons of model explanatory power also support the “recognize ESO asset and liability” method.     

Volatility of accounting earnings

The theoretical derivation of the volatility of accounting earnings is an important topic. Not only does it concern the uncertainty in earnings measurement, but it also allows for an objective comparison between different accounting allocation procedures. An accounting allocation that yields a lower volatility of earnings can be desirable because it makes periodic earnings better estimates of underlying long-term earnings of a firm over time. Based on this information, accounting professionals can make more rational judgements of the most appropriate accounting method to be used in preparing financial reports. This paper shows how to calculate the volatility of earnings under uncertainty across a range of different scenarios.     

Under-or-overreaction: Market responses to announcements of earnings surprises

We test whether the well-documented market reaction to the announcements of earnings surprises is a manifestation of an investor underreaction or overreaction to extremely good or bad earnings news. Using the market reaction in the three-day period surrounding the announcements of extreme earnings surprises (i.e., SUE) in quarter Q_t as a reference point, we show that firms reporting a high (low) SUE in subsequent quarter Q_t + 1 that confirms their initial quarter Q_t SUE ranking in the same highest or lowest SUE quintiles generate an incremental price run that moves in the same direction as that of the initial SUE. However, the price impact of the confirming SUE signal is weaker than that of its initial SUE. Our findings are robust to the Fama-French three-factor daily regression extended by the momentum factor and a number of other robustness tests. Our result is not consistent with the prevalent view that investors underreact to earnings news. To the contrary, the evidence suggests an initial investor overreaction to extreme SUE signals.