Velocity variance comparisons under alternative policy regimes

Conclusion This paper has shown that it is dangerous to make recommendations, concerning which money supply to control, based on a comparison of velocity variances which occurred during one historical policy regime. The policy recommendation could be sensitive to what the historical policy regime was, and in a wide variety of circumstances the policy recommendation could be wrong.An additional point should be made. Since interest rates were excluded from the model, it has not been analyzed for whether mistaken policy advice could be drawn from a velocity variance comparison on data observed during a regime of targeting short-term interest rates rather thanM1 orM2 (such as the pre-1970 period). Cagan [1982], Fellner [1982], and Kopcke [1983], for instance, make such comparisons. Given the results of this paper, however, it seems very likely that such an analysis would reinforce the strong cautionary point of this paper. Furthermore, if the historical regime did not involve an exclusive focus on one tool, but rather was a hybrid regime involving an ill-defined mixture of concern withM1,M2, and a short-term interest rate, then the cautionary point is further reinforced.Given the essentially negative result of this paper, that one cannot make a regime choice based on a simple velocity variance comparison, how can one choose the appropriate money supply to control? It would seem that there is no substitute for the use of a complete structural empirical model.     

中国土地市场化辨析

土地要素的特性决定了土地通过市场配置能实现土地收益的最大化,但同时也容易形成土地的垄断高价,产生财富转移,无法自发实现土地及附着其上住房对国民的基本生存保障功能。政府应在土地收益和居住用地之间科学决策,防止土地垄断对社会的冲击。     

Political economy of rent-seeking under alternative trade regimes

Zusammenfassung Die politische ?konomie des “Rent-seeking” unter alternativen Au\enwirtschaftssystemen. — Mit Hilfe eines berechenbaren Modells des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts zeichnen die Autoren den Typ einer Volkswirtschaft, in dem pr?ferenzmaximierende (rationale) Produzentenhaushalte einen Teil ihres nominalen Einkommens für „rent-seeking”-Aktivit?ten (Bestechungen) aufwenden, um die Beh?rden bei der Wahl der exportf?rdernden Instrumente zu beeinflussen. Die Autoren benutzen Daten über die türkische Volkswirtschaft, um die Folgen alternativer Ma\nahmen einer au\enwirtschaftlichen Abschottung auf die „rent-seeking”-Aktivit?ten zu analysieren. Dabei stellt sich heraus, da\ die Instrumentenwahl der Beh?rden sowohl von den zugrundeliegenden Au\enwirtschaftssystemen als auch von den privaten “rent-seeking”-Aktivit?ten beeinflu\t wird und da\ das Ph?nomen des „rent-seeking” nicht notwendigerweise ein „geschlossenes” ?konomisches Umfeld verlangt, sondern auch mit den sogenannten „offenen” Strategien des exportinduzierten Wachstums verbunden werden kann.

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Résumé Economie politique de ?rent-seeking? sous des régimes de commerce alternatifs. — A l’aide d’un modèle computable de l’équilibre général, les auteurs décrivent un modèle d’une économie dans laquelle les ménages à entrepreneurs, maximisant leur préférence, donnent une partie de leurs revenus nominaux aux activités de ?rentseeking? (c’est-à-dire à la corruption) pour influencer le gouvernement qui doit choisir les instruments pour inciter l’exportation. En utilisant des données de l’économie turque, les auteurs analysent les conséquences des régimes de commerce alternatifs sur l’activité de?rent seeking?. Les auteurs trouvent que le choix du gouvernement parmi des instruments dépend de tous les deux, des régimes de commerce et des agents privés avec leurs activités de ?rent seeking?; et que le phénomène de?rent seeking? ne demande pas nécessairement un environment économique fermé, mais il peut être aussi associé avec des stratégies soi-disant ouvertes qui incitent un accroissement des exportations.

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Resumen La economia politicadel “rent-seeking” bajo regimenes de comercio alternativos. — Con la ayuda de un modelo de equilibrio general computado (CGE) se representa una economia arquetipo en la cual productores-hogares con maximización de preferencias asignan una proporción de sus ingresos nominales a actividades “rentseeking” (soborno) con el fin de influenciar políticamente la elección de instrumentos para incentivar las exportaciones por parte del gobierno. Utilizando datos sobre la economia turca se analizan las consecuencias de grados alternativos de apertura de la economia sobre la actividad de “rent-seeking”. Se encuentra que la elección de instrumentos del gobierno es sensible tanto al régimen comercial existente como a las actividades de “rent-seeking” por parte de los agentes privados, y que el fenómeno de “rentseeking” no necesariamente implica presiones en favor de una economia cerrada, sino que también se lo puede asociar con estrategias de crecimiento por exportaciones en el marco de un economía abierta.

     

对我国当前土地改革政策的思考

在中国13亿人口中,农民占了2/3以上,因而我们可以说中国问题就是农民问题。"土地流转问题"是十七届三中全会的一大亮点,新的土地改革政策必将成为解决我国"三农问题"的重大突破口。     

Centralized wage setting under alternative monetary policy rules

Sumary This paper characterizes the wage setting behavior in a totally unionized economy under different monetary policy strategies. The wage formation strategy of the union can be either aggressive or cooperative. As long as the union is fully cooperative and in the absence of shocks, the government can completely attain its macroeconomic targets: full employment and price stability. If, however, the union becomes unexpectedly aggressive, a constant money supply rule has a nominal wage inflation bias under certain plausible assumptions. By changing the rules of the game,e.g. following a nominal GNP or price level (inflation) rule, wage demands would be lower and the economy better off.I thank an anonymous referee for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

中国封建社会的土地市场

本文论证了中国封建社会土地市场的三个阶段：初级阶段、外延扩大阶段、内涵扩大阶段。并对土地经营权商品化、土地交易形式多样化、土地价格和土地地市场性质等问题作了探讨。     

抢占中国农村物流市场新高地

激烈的市场竞争,金融风暴的持续冲击,面对业务量严重下滑的物流企业正在开辟新的市场、寻找新的利润增长点。中国农村物流市场具有巨大的发展前景,谁要是能先行一步抢占这个重要的物流市场新高地,很有可能会在空前激烈的物流市场竞争中大大提升自己的核心竞争力,并获得长远的发展。     

Trade policy in Mexico

This paper provides an evaluation of the trade policies applied in Mexico in the last quarter century (1956–1982). It examines the policies in three well-defined periods: (1) 1956–1971, considered to be a period of relative stability following the rapid inflation and devaluations of the first post-war decade, though characterized by increasing overvaluation of the peso; (2) March 1972–December 1976, beginning with the acceleration of government spending under President Echeverria and ending with the devaluations of the peso; (3) December 1976–December 1982, covering the Presidency of José López Portillo. For each period, the author discusses macroeconomic policy, trade policy developments and changes in Mexican exports and imports and their contribution to industrial growth. Having demonstrated the interdependence of macroeconomic and trade policies, the paper concludes with recommendations for policy reform, e.g. for remedying macroeconomic disequilibria, reducing price distortions and reforming trade policy, with a view to moving towards an outward-oriented development strategy in Mexico.     

Efficiency and distribution of rural construction land marketization in contemporary China

Since 2015, a national trial on rural construction land marketization has been conducted in 15 counties in China; this trial is regarded as the most significant step taken to date to reform the extant rural-urban dual land governance system. The trial aims to investigate the performance of an integrated rural-urban construction land market in facilitating land resource allocation efficiency and land revenue distribution equality. The objective of this paper is to understand the ongoing rural construction land marketization in China, with a particular focus on its efficiency and distribution effects. To this end, the theoretical model for rural construction land marketization is extended based on Tan, Qu, Heerink, and Mettepenningen (2011), a partial equilibrium model is developed for the empirical analysis, and recent rural construction land marketization practices in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province, are examined for empirical evidence. The study concludes that 1) rural construction land marketization indeed improves land allocation efficiency, and 2) rural construction land marketization also leads to a welfare gain for the rural sector, in particular by inducing redistribution effects from the urban to the rural sector.     

Trade,technology, and the labour market: impacts on wage inequality within countries

This paper focuses on the widening wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers within countries and discusses whether trade and technology have contributed to this trend. The paper develops an analytical framework for wage inequality that traces the determinants and their relative roles in wage inequality in different stages of the development of trade theory, especially those considering new evidence after 2011. We find that technology plays a key role in the rise of wage inequality in most countries, while trade plays an increasingly crucial and more complex role in recent years. Skill supply institutions, such as education systems supplying skilled labour or unions participating in wage‐setting processes, suppress the rise of wage inequality in some countries. The paper further outlines the mechanisms through which trade affects wage inequality, including offshoring, firm heterogeneity, labour market frictions and global value chains. We find that trade has indirect effects on technology, which further enlarges the wage inequality among skills. The paper also discusses the policy implications of the impacts of trade and technology on wage inequality.     

国土空间背景下的乡村建设规划研究

在规划转型的关键时刻,我国力推国土空间规划,促进村庄多规融合,引导空间落实。文章以乡村建设规划为例,探讨乡村建设规划的实施路径以及新思路下传统乡村建设规划应对策略。     

试论政策瑕疵与中国房地产市场走向

当前房地产市场呈现一片混沌状态,下至普通消费者上至专家皆是雾里看花、莫衷一是。这里面有中央政府的原因,有消费者自身的原因,当然更离不开银行系统和地方政府的推波助澜。本文试图就当前形式理一个脉络,以期对政策制定者有所裨益。并在此基础上对今后市场运行情况加以大胆预测。     

新型城镇化协调发展下韶关市差别化土地政策研究

由于区域资源禀赋、经济发展状况不同,需要在城镇化进程中制定差别化的土地政策。以韶关市作为研究对象,全面分析了市域土地综合分区的差异性。以主体功能定位为导向,提出了分区差别化土地利用策略。在此基础上,详细分析了差别化的城镇建设用地政策和农业用地政策。研究成果有利于推动区域城镇化持续协调发展。     

Trade policy under imperfect competition: The economics of Russian roulette

Summary Neo-classical economic theory shows that managed trade or protectionism is (almost) always welfare decreasing. However, measurements of the welfare costs of protectionism based on neo-classical models seem to suggest that these costs are quite small. We discuss general new insights and developments in the theory, policy and empiricism of international trade. The observation that intra-industry trade and the services sector are important has led to a shift in theory away from constant returns to scale and perfect competition towards economies of scale and scope, externalities, market imperfections, and imperfect competition. Although this, in principle, opens the door to beneficial government intervention in the economic process, we emphasize that the true costs of protection can potentially be much higher than is generally acknowledged as a result of the above mentioned shift.We would like to thank, without implicating, Martin Fase, Harry Garretsen, Catrinus Jepma, Simon Kuipers, Ger Lanjouw, Tenn Schmidt, Albert de Vaal, and Jean-Marie Viaene for stimulating conversations and useful suggestions. We thank Thijs Knaap for excellent research assistance.     

房贷利率新政出笼，“锚”变之下市场表现亮了！

<正>10月8日,央行房贷利率新政正式实施,央行原有的基准利率标准正式退出房贷市场,改由贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为基础标准,新发放商业性个人住房贷款利率以最近一个月相应期限的贷款市场报价利率为定价基准加点形成。自8月25日央行发布关于房贷利率新政公告,到10月8日正式实施新政这一个多月时间里,房地产市场上一直议论纷纷,很多人担心新政基于房住不炒的国家政策走向,会加重居民住房贷款压力。10月8日新政发布后,各地的实际执行利率都出来了,各地市场的表现是:基本稳定,有升有降,微幅波动。可以用一个词来形容:平稳如常!这说明了什么呢?说明房贷利率新政是完全符合房住不炒     

WTO框架下的贸易救济制度及中国的实践

中国加入世贸组织意味着中国这个最大的发展中国家要遵循世贸组织的规则,同时要在世贸组织规则不断地完善中发挥中国的作用,要运用世贸的规则首先要学习和掌握世贸的规则,在这个基础上才能谈得上参与世贸规则的修改和完善.所以,结合我自己的工作,我想在这里就世界贸易组织的贸易救济体制和中国在这方面所做的探索谈两点看法.     

Perceived land tenure security in rural Xinjiang,China: The role of official land documents and trust

The role of formal tenure institutions in reducing land tenure insecurity has been long debated in the development economics literature. This study examines and compares the key determinants of perceptions of security of tenure over contract land and wasteland, two types of land that are characterized by tenure being formally and informally ascribed. The material is drawn from the Chinese region of Xinjiang, an ethnically heterogeneous region which has more complex tenure systems than elsewhere in China. Empirical estimations based on a survey of 352 households, complemented by interviews with key informants, demonstrate that formal institutions (measured by official land documents) do not significantly contribute to households' perceptions of tenure security on either type of land, and that both interpersonal trust and political trust significantly enhance perceived tenure security on either land type in our research area. The empirical evidence further shows that perceptions of tenure security on both types of land are more sensitive to trust towards village cadres than trust in villagers.     

The impacts of market power on power grid efficiency: Evidence from China

Since 1980s, China has experienced a series of reforms to support the development of electricity industry, and the latest one is in 2015. The essence of this new reform is to improve efficiency and lower energy cost. However, China's electricity market has its particularity. The “provinces as entities” is the main regulation frame in China's electricity sector. The operation of the electricity industry can be seen as a game result and interest compromise between the local government and grid companies, and this “win-win exchange” regulation failure leads to grid market power. The profit mode of the grid enterprises will be gradually changed with the deepening of new electricity reform. How to regulate electricity transmission and distribution sector and improve grid efficiency becomes a crucial problem to address. This paper aims to examine the relationship between market power and power grid efficiency. We calculate the unconditional and conditional efficiency of grid companies by applying a conditional slack-based measure (SBM) model. The empirical results show that grid efficiency is at a low level and the indicators differ among provinces and regions. Moreover, market power indeed has significant negative effects on power grid efficiency. These findings provide some insightful references for the future development of China's power industry and electricity reform.     

金融市场开放条件下中国金融监管体制改革构想

置身于世纪之交全球经济一体化的滚滚潮流,面对金融市场全面开放的机遇和挑战,怎样建立和完善适应开放经济条件下的中国金融监管体制,向国际金融监管原则和发展方向靠拢,以确保中国经济、金融与国际接轨,实现健康快速发展,就成为中国金融改革不可回避的重要现实问题。而金融监管并没有一个标准统一的模式,也不存在一个普遍使用的通用模式,一个合理的金融监管体制应在既尊重传统与现实,又在考虑未来金融发展趋势的基础上,结合各国的历史、文化、经济金融运行状况等实际情况,选择最适合自己国情的监管模式。     

不确定性市场环境下供应链两级生产商订购决策分析

在实际生产中,大多数供应链具有两级不确定性,即原产品生产的不确定性和产成品生产的不确定性;总体再利用线性规划的相关性列出两个线性方程,以及对其加入相应的限制条件,求解出供应链中二级生产商的最优订购量和一级生产商的最优计划产量。