Economic policy uncertainty,credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lendin...     

Basel III capital buffers and Canadian credit unions lending: Impact of the credit cycle and the business cycle

We take advantage of the long-standing regulation of the risk-based capital and the leverage ratio in Canada to provide empirical evidence on the relation between the credit unions' capital buffers and loans to members. Based on a unique sample of the 100 Canadian largest credit unions from 1996 to 2014, we find that both the risk-based capital buffer and the leverage buffer are positively related to changes in loans and loan growth. However, changes in these two types of buffers are negatively related to changes in the loans to assets ratios. This finding suggests that to adjust their capital buffers, Canadian credit unions curtail their loans and underscores the importance of the Basel III conservation and the countercyclical buffer requirements in fostering credit. Further, we show that the risk-based capital buffer is positively related to the credit cycle. However, a mechanical application of the rule based on the credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) gap to activate the countercyclical buffer, would have misguided Canadian credit unions.     

Bank regulatory capital and liquidity: Evidence from US and European publicly traded banks

The theory of financial intermediation highlights various channels through which capital and liquidity are interrelated. Using a simultaneous equations framework, we investigate the relationship between bank regulatory capital and bank liquidity measured from on-balance sheet positions for European and US publicly traded commercial banks. Previous research studying the determinants of bank capital buffer has neglected the role of liquidity. On the whole, we find that banks decrease their regulatory capital ratios when they face higher illiquidity as defined in the Basel III accords or when they create more liquidity as measured by Berger and Bouwman (2009). However, considering other measures of illiquidity that focus more closely on core deposits in the United States, our results show that small banks strengthen their solvency standards when they are exposed to higher illiquidity. Our empirical investigation supports the need to implement minimum liquidity ratios concomitant to capital ratios, as stressed by the Basel Committee; however, our findings also shed light on the need to further clarify how to define and measure illiquidity and also on how to regulate large banking institutions, which behave differently than smaller ones.     

Bank capital (requirements) and credit supply: Evidence from pillar 2 decisions

We analyze how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect bank lending to the non-financial corporate sector as well as banks' balance sheet adjustments. To do so, we relate Pillar 2 capital requirements to a comprehensive corporate credit register coupled with bank and firm balance sheet data. Our analysis consists of three components. First, we investigate how capital requirements affect the supply of bank credit to the corporate sector, both on the intensive and extensive margin, as well as for different types of credit. Subsequently, we document how bank and firm characteristics as well as the monetary policy stance impact the relationship between bank capital requirements and the supply of credit. Finally, we examine how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect banks' balance sheet composition.     

Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample

This study extends the research of Bordo, Duca, and Koch (2016) and Hu and Gong (2018) by examining the influences of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) at domestic and global levels on aggregate bank credit growth. The empirical analysis is conducted through both supply and demand side factors of bank credit growth in 22 economies over the period 2001–2015. This study employs different measures of EPU and applies panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), which are suitable for unbalanced panel data models. Three principal findings are follows. First, higher level of EPU has negative impact on bank credit growth, which is significant for domestic EPU measures. Second, the positive change in EPU appears to have favorable effects on bank credit growth. The effects in both cases are different for the credit demand and supply sides. The findings suggest the need for appropriate measures to tackle bank credit risk-taking activities in uncertain conditions. Third, the impacts of EPU in emerging economies are negative and somewhat stronger than in advanced economies.     

Deflation,bank credit growth,and non-performing loans: Evidence from Japan

In this paper, I examine the link between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in an economy with deflationary pressures. Using panel OLS regressions and two-step GMM regressions, I find evidence for the time-varying relationship between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in a sample of 82 publicly listed commercial banks in Japan during the period 1993–2013. I show that bank credit growth positively correlates with non-performing loans prior to the onset of the global financial crisis of 2007 but negatively correlates with non-performing loans afterwards. I find evidence to support the notion that large banks drive the observed effects of credit growth on non-performing loans. In addition, credit growth and non-performing loans have no effect on profitability. Overall, the findings suggest that while the increase in the supply of bank loans increases the level of non-performing loans, it does not lead to higher profitability.     

Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps

This study examines the intra-industry information transfer effect of credit events, as captured in the credit default swaps (CDS) and stock markets. Positive correlations across CDS spreads imply that contagion effects dominate, whereas negative correlations indicate competition effects. We find strong evidence of contagion effects for Chapter 11 bankruptcies and competition effects for Chapter 7 bankruptcies. We also introduce a purely unanticipated event, in the form of a large jump in a company's CDS spread, and find that this leads to the strongest evidence of credit contagion across the industry. These results have important implications for the construction of portfolios with credit-sensitive instruments.     

Trade credit and bank credit: Evidence from recent financial crises

This paper studies the effect of financial crises on trade credit for a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. Although the provision of trade credit increases right after a crisis, it contracts in the following months and years. Firms that are financially more vulnerable to crises extend less trade credit to their customers. We argue that the decline in aggregate trade credit ratios is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit that follows a bank credit crunch, consistent with the “redistribution view” of trade credit provision, whereby bank credit is redistributed via trade credit from financially stronger firms to weaker firms.     

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks

This paper investigates the relationship between the two major sources of bank default risk: liquidity risk and credit risk. We use a sample of virtually all US commercial banks during the period 1998–2010 to analyze the relationship between these two risk sources on the bank institutional-level and how this relationship influences banks’ probabilities of default (PD). Our results show that both risk categories do not have an economically meaningful reciprocal contemporaneous or time-lagged relationship. However, they do influence banks’ probability of default. This effect is twofold: whereas both risks separately increase the PD, the influence of their interaction depends on the overall level of bank risk and can either aggravate or mitigate default risk. These results provide new insights into the understanding of bank risk and serve as an underpinning for recent regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening banks (joint) risk management of liquidity and credit risks.     

Political influence and banks: Evidence from mortgage lending

We show that banks expand mortgage lending in the home states of Senate Banking Committee chairs, and the effect is more pronounced in counties where the incumbent senator faces a competitive re-election race. Banks strategically target politically active borrowers. Consequently, banks’ profitability increases after favoring the incumbent politicians’ constituents, but they suffer a deterioration in mortgage asset quality in the long run. Our findings imply that political power could distort private capital allocation beyond conventional political contribution channels.     

FDI versus exports: Evidence from German banks

We use a new bank-level dataset to study the FDI-versus-exports decision for German banks. We extend the literature on multinational firms in two directions. First, we simultaneously study FDI and the export of cross-border financial services. Second, we test recent theories on multinational firms which show the importance of firm heterogeneity [Helpman, E., Melitz, M.J., Yeaple, S.R., 2004. Export versus FDI. American Economic Review 94 (1), 300–316]. Our results show that FDI and cross-border services are complements rather than substitutes. Heterogeneity of banks has a significant impact on the internationalization decision. More profitable and larger banks are more likely to expand internationally than smaller banks. They have more extensive foreign activities, and they are more likely to engage in FDI in addition to cross-border financial services.     

Max headroom: Discretionary capital buffers and bank risk

This paper examines the association between discretionary capital buffers, capital requirements, and risk for the 99 largest European banks from 2013 to 2020. Discretionary buffers are banks’ own buffers, or headroom: the difference between reported and required capital. Against the backdrop of steadily increasing capital requirements over the sample period, I exploit unique and detailed Pillar 2 data that banks disclose since the release of a 2015 European Banking Authority opinion. I show that less headroom is associated with increased bank risk, even for well-capitalized banks. An additional examination of banks’ responses to the 2016 and 2018 EBA stress tests reveals that banks supervised by the ECB struggled to improve headroom. Overall, I document limitations of the effectiveness of bank capital requirements.     

Foreign banks and credit in Mexico

The role that foreign banks play in developing countries has been arduously debated. Foreign banks can improve the efficiency of the banking sector in the host country but they can also undermine local banks by selecting only the most trustworthy borrowers. In this paper, I analyze the period between 2005 and 2014 and compare the differences between foreign and domestic banks in Mexico and Colombia. Analyzing Mexico is of great importance given that foreign banks control more than 80% of the banking assets. Also, given the difference in institutional development between Mexico and Colombia, I can control for regulatory environment. After controlling for size, institutional development, and country of origin, I find that foreign banks have not stimulated growth in Mexico through commercial loans. Previous studies suggest that this lack of credit to companies may be due to a weak enforcement of contracts rather than to foreign ownership. However, Colombia has a weaker enforcement of contracts environments and foreign banks also do not provide as many commercial loans as domestic banks. This paper is of particular interest to regulators in developing countries that need foreign capital and those that want to intensify the allocation of commercial credit.     

The financing and growth of firms in China and India: Evidence from capital markets

This paper studies the extent to which firms in China and India use capital markets to obtain financing and grow. Using new data on domestic and international capital raising and firm performance, it finds that financial market activity has expanded less since the 1990s than aggregate figures suggest. Relatively few firms raise capital and even fewer attract most of the financing. Moreover, firms that issue equity or bonds are different and behave differently from other publicly listed firms. Among other things, they are typically larger and grow faster. The differences between users and nonusers exist before the capital raising, are associated with the probability of raising capital, and become more pronounced afterward. The size distribution of issuing firms shifts more over time than the distribution of those that do not issue, suggesting little convergence in size among listed firms.     

The impact of bank regulation on the cost of credit: Evidence from a discontinuity in capital requirements

We study the effect on credit relationships of the Small and Medium Enterprises Supporting Factor (SME-SF), a regulatory risk weight reduction on small loans to SMEs. Employing a regression discontinuity design and matched bank-firm data from Italy, we find that a 1 percent drop in capital requirements causes an average 13 basis points reduction in the cost of credit. Moreover, with a novel measure of bank regulatory capital scarcity, we show that the drop is larger for banks facing tighter constraints. Furthermore, the drop is larger for firms with low switching costs, while the sharp assignment rule may have led to the rationing of marginal borrowers. Such findings indicate that the entire distribution of firms and banks’ characteristics plays a crucial role in determining the impact of regulatory capital changes.     

Tournament incentives and firm credit risk: Evidence from credit default swap referenced firms

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of managerial tournament incentives on firm credit risk in credit default swap (CDS) referenced firms. We find that intra‐firm tournament incentives are negatively related to credit risk. Our results suggest that tournament incentives reduce credit risk by alleviating the potential for underinvestment when managers are concerned about exacting empty creditors. Further, we find that tournament incentives decrease credit risk when internal governance is strong or product market competition is intense. Taken together, our results suggest that creditors perceive senior manager tournament incentives (SMTI) as a critical determinant of a firm's credit risk, particularly in settings where managerial risk aversion is high.     

The effects of government capital and liquidity support programs on bank lending: Evidence from the syndicated corporate credit market

This study jointly evaluates the effects of the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Federal Reserve's Discount Window (DW), and Term Auction Facility (TAF) on bank syndicated lending during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, using a unique data set that tracks the exposure of each lender in each syndicated credit facility in each year. By comparing lending changes within a group of banks that lend to the same facility of the same firm in the same year, it eliminates the impacts of demand-side factors that often bias the results of empirical studies on bank credit supply. Overall, I find that TARP, DW, and TAF played only a marginal role in increasing bank syndicated lending. By examining lending changes at the facility-lender and firm-lender levels, this study is less prone to the reverse causality problem that is inherent in studies using bank-level data. Therefore, this study complements studies using bank-level data and provides policymakers with a balanced view on the effects of these programs.     

"国家信用"阻碍银行改革步伐

笔者一直对于其改革的有效性持十分怀疑态度,其中一个基本的观点是内地银行体制内生于整体经济环境及政治社会环境.如果这些前提性的宏观决定因素没有较大的改进,目前局限于银行业内部改革和有关资本层面的改革措施,将注定只能影响国有银行的表层结构;在制约国有银行改革的诸多因素中,一个无法回避的基本命题,就是长期存在"国家信用"问题,也就是对于国有银行的隐性担保及其能否退出,以及如何退出的问题.     

Informed finance and technological change: Evidence from credit relationships

This paper empirically investigates the effect of “informed finance” on technological change. The theoretical literature offers conflicting predictions on whether the information of financiers fosters or inhibits firms’ innovation. Using data from a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, we find that the information of firms’ main banks, proxied by the duration of credit relationships, promotes innovation. This positive effect is economically and statistically more significant for product than for process innovations. Nonetheless, the role of relationship banks in innovation is quite unsophisticated: they do not foster internal research but rather fund the relevant investments that the introduction and acquisition of new technologies entails.     

Beyond state-owned banks: Evidence from Shanghai bank customers

In light of a reformed and liberalized banking sector in China, this article sets out to examine the role of socio-demographic factors and customers’ banking experiences and priorities in customers’ selection of banks. As state-owned banks have long dominated the banking industry, the article also investigates the receptiveness of the Shanghai Chinese towards newer commercial banks, such as the joint-stock banks, and the penetration of foreign banks into China's banking industry. Comparing customers who use state-owned banks only and those who patronize joint-stock banks, it is found that education, income, age, occupation sector and location of hometown affects customers of state-owned banks only. Further, it is also found that state-owned banks remain dominant despite the opening up of the banking sector, and perception towards state-owned banks remains favourable.