金融危机背景下再论金融发展与经济增长——基于发达经济体与新兴市场国家的实证检验

20世纪90年代以来,全球金融危机频发,引发对金融发展、政策与经济增长关系的重新思考。本文收集了39个国家和地区1994～2007年间的年度数据,利用面板数据计量经济分析方法,针对发达经济体与新兴市场和发展中国家的不同,通过面板数据的单位根检验、协整分析和构建误差修正模型,检验金融发展、政策与经济增长的长期均衡关系及短期因果关系。     

Stock Markets,Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these three variables for 5 developing countries. In addition, we test the direction of potential causality between financial and economic development. Our results conclude to the existence of a single cointegrating vector between financial development and growth and of causality going from financial development to economic growth. We find little evidence of reverse causation as well as bi-directional causality. We interpret this as evidence supporting the significance of financial development for economic development although banks and stock markets may have different effects depending on the level of economic development.     

Financial Development, Economic Growth and Adaptive Efficiency： A Comparison between China and Pakistan

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China＇s financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China＇s high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan.     

REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF EQUITY MARKETS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Equity markets in developing and emerging economies have grown in number and importance as a result of financial market globalisation. However, their role in economic growth and development is enhanced if nascent markets are integrated with well‐established ones. Market integration, measured by the transmission of returns volatility, is identified across a sample of SSA countries, using a unique dataset. Evidence for potential integration between financial markets in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is found. Spillovers are found across markets, some unidirectional and others bi‐directional. However, continued illiquidity and incomplete institutions indicate that an integrated financial community remains premature, and considerable regulatory reform and harmonisation will be necessary for this to succeed.     

Corruption and Economic Efficiency: Panel Data Evidence

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the effect of corruption on countries' economic efficiency. By using a sample of 79 countries for the time period 2000–2006 the paper applies DEA window analysis and econometric panel data techniques. The results reveal that there is a U-shaped relationship between countries' corruption perception levels and economic efficiency. Furthermore, it appears that corruption has a negative effect on countries' economic efficiency. For the first time the turning points of such a relationship are being produced indicating that on average terms and regardless of countries' economic structure, Corruption Perception Index (CPI) above five initiate a positive effect on a countries' economic efficiency.     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

A survey of the determinants of financial development

The positive effects of financial development on economic growth have encouraged researchers to study the determinants of financial development. Based on the theoretical and empirical studies undertaken, institutions, openness of trade and financial markets, legal tradition, and political economy are identified as factors promoting the financial system. Of these, political economy factors, which can have both direct and indirect effects through other determinants, could be considered the most influential factors in financial development. Variations in the political economy of countries could well explain variations in their financial development. Although all studies show the significant effects of these determinants on financial development, further research is needed to assess the impact of each determinant and the policies that could best promote financial development.     

Financial System and Economic Growth: The Korean Experience

This paper examines the relationship between the development of financial systems and economic growth using Korea as a case study. In particular, we focus on the relative development of financial intermediaries and capital markets, and their impact on the portfolio behavior of the household and business sectors. Causality and non-nested model selection tests show that financial development in general leads economic growth and that financial intermediaries are more important than capital markets in this relationship.     

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected African Countries

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of stock market development on economic growth in 14 African countries in a dynamic panel data modelling setting. Results largely show a positive relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Further analyses, based on the level of economic development and stock market capitalization, are also conducted. The results reveal that the positive influence of stock market development on economic growth is significant for countries classified as upper middle income economies. On the basis of market capitalization groupings, stock market developments play a significant role in growth only for moderately capitalized markets. The general trend in results shows that low income African countries and less developed stock markets need to grow more and develop their markets to elicit economic gains from stock markets.     

大湄公河区域国家经济金融一体化实证研究

大湄公河区域是东亚经济一体化速度最快的次区域之一。区域内国家经济增长的谐动性呈现出总体上升的态势;次区域经济一体化的贸易创造效应显著;各国经济金融开放度不断提高,多数国家金融一体化进程加快;各国金融市场波动联系显著。中国应为取得合作中的主导地位制定行动计划,并重视沿边省份作用的发挥。     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

Financial Liberalization Policies and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: The paper conducts an empirical investigation into the effects of financial liberalization policies on the growth of 19 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Two indexes are constructed which measure the gradual progression and institutional changes involved in financial liberalization. Because these indexes track specific financial liberalization policies, they provide better measures of financial liberalization than the indicators of financial development often used in the literature. Panel data estimates show a significant positive relationship between economic growth and financial liberalization policies. Our results are robust to alternative specifications of the model, and also across slow‐ and fast‐growing countries.     

Who determines Chinese firms' engagement in corruption: Themselves or neighbors?

We investigate the determinants of firm corruption and highlight contagious diffusion of firm corruption under mutual influences of firms' past corrupt history and between peers. The analysis finds that firms' decision-making on engagement in corruption can be affected vertically by their own past experience of bribing bureaucrats and horizontally by the contagion effects of neighbors' observed malfeasance, while there is substantial regional heterogeneity. Moreover, these horizontal contagion effects are nonlinear depending on the distance between neighbors. We also identify three channels underlying “osmosis” of corruption: firms' geographic networks, information exposure, and local marketization. The strongest contagion effect appears in the eastern region, indicating that petty firm corruption can develop into a systematic phenomenon. More practical anti-corruption policies call for cooperation in design and implementation across administrative areas.     

The Finance–Growth Link in Latin America

This paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Latin America with a Granger causality test and impulse response functions in a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model. With annual observations from a sample of 18 countries from 1962 to 2005, it is shown that while economic growth causes financial development, financial development does not cause economic growth. This finding is robust to different model specifications and different financial indicators. Interestingly, when the sample is divided according to different income levels and institutional quality, there is two‐way causality between financial development and economic growth only for the middle income group and for countries with stronger rule of law and creditor rights. The impulse response functions show that a shock to financial development has a positive impact on economic growth only for these subsamples, but the net effect of financial development on growth is relatively small.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

Regional stock markets and the economic development of Southeast Asia

The paper examines the contribution made by the establishment and operation of a local stock exchange to the economic development of Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. The paper informs investors and policymakers about the current status of SEA stock market development and the associated positive and negative effects of such initiatives. Policymakers have placed a clear focus on SEA stock markets as a primary driver of regional economic growth. However, it is questionable whether SEA is ready for such an ambitious economic initiative, particularly given the reported negative effects of lesser developed stock markets. Despite these negative implications, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs for SEA stock markets. It is perceived that SEA stock markets will drive further economic reform, financial liberalisation, and market integration, promising tremendous benefits for both the region and the international investment community. The paper concludes with questions regarding the efficiency of stock markets in SEA and offers recommendations for further empirical research.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub‐Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Abstract: This paper seeks to empirically explore the causal link between the level of financial development and economic growth in 13 sub‐Saharan African countries. The empirical investigation is carried out in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error‐correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of the existence of a long‐run relationship between financial development and economic growth in almost all (12 out of 13) of the countries. With respect to the direction of long‐term causality, the results show that financial development plays a causal role on economic growth, again in eight of the countries. At the same time, evidence of bidirectional causal relationships is found in six countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems.     

An introduction to problems of economic development in the CMEA countries

Through the Asian financial crisis, many key international economic issues have come to the forefront the stability of the international financial system under the IMF, “Asian values”, the universal validity of the Asian Economic Development Model, China's leadership in the regional world economy, Japan's role in the region, and the immunity of Greater China from the current financial crisis. Currently, most Asian countries seem eager to redress structural problems involving the government sector, banking, and corporate governance. In the process of this full scale restructuring, Korea must reevaluate its economic relationship with Central Asia. This paper argues that Korean financial crisis stems basically from the system failure. Furthermore, since a small open economy carries with it intrinsic vulnerabilities, the government should be more careful in securing optimal foreign exchange, opening capital markets based on the economy's absorption capacity. In this respect, the banking industry should be run based on the profitability of capital. Once banking industries are distorted by the practice of government‐led policy loans, it is more difficult to correct those customized distortions. The banking industry should play a larger role as the “brain of the economy”, sensing abnormalities of the economy. Moreover, in today's increasingly interdependent global economic system, no single country can solve its problems without close coordination of its policy with the outside world. An early warning system to signal financial instability would help developing economies in modernizing and strengthening their domestic financial institutions and would also work as a supplement to the IMF standby fund. Also, human resource management has proven too important to be neglected. Central Asia could derive lessons from the above Asian “failure”, not the Asian “miracle”, to avoid inappropriate policies and to deepen its economic development.