Spatial spillovers of regional wages: Evidence from Chinese provinces

This study investigates the effects of spatial interactions on local wages based on a panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2001 and 2010. Using the Global Moran's I statistic, we provide empirical evidence for the presence of spatial dependencies in provincial wages. Then, we estimate the provincial wage equation using a spatial panel model that controls for spatial heterogeneity and spatial interdependence as well as other regional characteristics. The empirical results show that spatial wage spillover plays an important role in the determination of local wages. Furthermore, we find that human capital and economic growth are two underlying forces strengthening wage spillovers across provinces.     

Education expenditure in China: potential strategic behavior among regional governments

In this study, we examine whether significant strategic interaction exists among Chinese provincial governments in determining the levels of their expenditures on education. The presence of such spatial interaction may be either due to spatial spillovers or due to spatial resource flows between provinces. We derive our basic regression specification based on the theoretical models in the literature. By applying a panel data generalized method of moments (GMM) method, we show that under a ‘smooth-distance-decay’ assumption in constructing the weighting scheme for the relevance of interaction between two provinces, our regression results provide evidence that supports the claim that there exists significant inter-provincial strategic interaction in public expenditure for education among the Chinese provinces.     

环境规制推动了产业结构转型升级吗?——基于地方政府环境规制执行的策略互动视角

通过产业结构转型和升级打破资源和环境的诅咒,是保持中国经济高质量增长的必要条件。现有对环境规制如何影响经济结构转型的研究往往忽略了财政分权下的地方政府间经济增长竞争引致的环境规制互动行为,进而导致研究结论存在较大差异。文章基于政府竞争视角,借助两区制空间Durbin模型对地方政府环境规制执行的策略互动行为进行检验,随后构建空间杜宾模型分析环境规制对产业结构转型升级的影响,并进行了稳健性检验与传导机制分析。研究发现:标尺竞争机制下,地方政府环境规制执行存在相互模仿行为,即邻近地区降低环境规制强度,本地区亦会相应降低环境规制强度,彰显出环境规制的非完全执行特征;环境规制未能促进本地产业结构合理化,地方政府环境规制执行互动行为不利于邻近地区产业结构合理的均衡化发展;环境规制有效推动本地产业高度化进程,且地区间环境规制互动的正向空间溢出效应显著促进产业高度化发展;机制分析结果显示,地方政府环境规制策略互动行为削弱了要素配置效率,不利于产业结构合理化,同时,环境规制激发创新补偿效应促进产业结构高度化进程。因此,引导地方政府环境规制执行良性竞争,有效发挥环境规制对产业转型升级积极作用,有助于中国经...     

环境规制对工业绿色创新的本地影响及空间溢出效应

对2008—2019年30个省区市的环境规制强度及工业绿色创新绩效的空间相关性检验表明,地方政府间存在环境规制竞争行为且绿色创新在省区间具有空间关联性。利用动态空间杜宾模型并结合偏微分方程的实证研究表明,从全国范围考察,命令型环境规制对工业绿色创新的本地影响多数情况下表现为正向且影响系数较强,说明其明显发挥了创新倒逼效应,而公众参与型环境规制的倒逼效应相对较弱,规制效果存在明显的政策差异。因一部分地区环境标准的提高促使污染企业或项目向环境标准宽松的地区转移,从而阻碍了承接转移地区的工业绿色创新进程,致使环境规制对其他地区绿色创新的负向溢出效应显现。     

Local Governance: Impacts of Fiscal Decentralization on Government Size and Spending Composition in Vietnam*

The study provides an understanding of the impacts of fiscal decentralization and local governance on government size and spending composition. We use a balanced panel data set of 63 provinces of Vietnam over the 2006–2015 period. By estimating the spatial Durbin model, we find that local public spending and government size grow over time and have spatial spillovers. Fiscal decentralization significantly reduces public spending and government size, which supports the Leviathan hypothesis. More interestingly, combining local governance, the marginal spatial spillover effects of the fiscal decentralization on public spending and government size are intensified. Our findings imply that local governments should enhance interregional collaboration in fiscal management to limit duplicate public spending and promote regional sustainable development.     

Spatial externalities in China regional economic growth

Using spatial econometric techniques, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the growth performances of Chinese prefectures over 1991 to 2007 period. Based on the Solow growth theory with technology spillovers, a Spatial Durbin growth model recently developed is employed to capture the spatial externalities. We find strong evidence of positive spatial dependence between Chinese prefectures after 1991. Apart from the usual divergence conclusions, we find evidence for significant conditional convergence force when the spatial spillover effects are controlled. Our results also indicate the competition effect of capital accumulation and urbanization growth among neighboring regions. Moreover, spatial convergence clubs are detected and the spatial interactions and growth behavior varies.     

地方政府投资与区域经济协调发展问题研究——基于大中原经济区视角

在国务院《促进中部地区崛起规划》的基础上,河南省制订了“大中原经济区”规划,该规划对我国区域协调发展具有重要的战略意义。文章通过实证分析指出,地方政府投资有利于缩小省间经济增长差距,促进区域协调发展。文章在此基础上结合国家的战略意图及大中原经济区的比较优势,提出了指导性、预测性的中长期地方政府区域投资发展规划,希冀为解决“中国难题”提供思路和样本。     

地方政府债务支出效率评估 ——基于DEA-Malmquist模型的分析

选取2016—2018年中国省级行政单位整年的相关数据作为研究样本,通过传统DEA-BCC模型和DEA-Malmquist模型测算观察期内各省份政府债务资金支出效率。从模型实证研究的结果来看,大部分省份债务支出效率处于提升的阶段,且不同地区的不同省份之间的债务支出情况和效率情况存在异质性,即不同省份债务支出效率不相同。在此基础上,结合得出的实证结果和经济意义的解释,提出有关优化地方政府债务结构和提升地方政府债务支出效率的建议。     

基于政府间博弈竞争的越界流域水污染治理困境分析

论文基于政府间博弈竞争的分析框架,分析中央和地方政府间、同级地方政府间博弈竞争在越界流域水污染治理中的策略性行为,通过对双重博弈竞争模型均衡结果的分析,发现地方政府对辖区流域水污染治理的概率取决于中央政府的监管成本和处罚力度,而在缺乏有效监督和处罚的情况下,地方政府的"理性"选择是不治理,地方政府间的"囚徒困境"导致流域水污染越来越严重。首先,要构建强有力的流域组织协调机构;其次,要建立科学的地方政府绩效评估体系;第三,要构建流域水污染治理生态补偿机制。     

地方官员、捕蝇纸效应与公共服务支出的关系——一项有关公共服务型政府建设的研究

在我国,地方政府是公共服务提供的主导者,而地万官员在公共服务中扮演重要角色.文章构建了1997-2010年我国省级领导与其省份公共服务提供相匹配的数据,从个人微观层面考察这些官员群体(尤其是政府行政首长)对公共服务提供的情况.研究结果表明:省级官员建设公共服务型政府的愿望并不强烈,并且存在“捕蝇纸效应”;官员的公共服务支出与他们的晋升相关性低;东部地区公共服务支出比例明显低于广大的中西部地区;官员的流动有利于公共服务的提供.因此,创造公共服务的“竞争性市场”,并增强政策的可信承诺;进行税制改革,增加地方财力;增强社会问责,强化地方官员的约束.     

中国地方政府债务违约风险评估——基于债务可持续性分析框架

结合中国地方政府财政反应特征,文章在债务可持续性分析框架中,首次识别了基础盈余主动调整的有效性条件作为分析前提,进而完善了债务不可持续性的定义内涵和度量方法,最终建立了地方政府债务违约风险评估模型。凭借此模型,对中国地方政府债务违约风险进行了评估,主要结论如下:在经济增速不稳定背景下,施行顺周期财政政策的中国地方政府,容易落入基础盈余主动调整无效的境况,因而在对地方政府债务可持续性进行分析时,有必要考虑基础盈余主动调整的有效性;通过检验发现,新构造的债务不可持续概率和条件期望债务空间指标,均能较好反映地方政府债务违约风险,而单纯的债务率指标对地方政府债务违约风险无解释力;在2019年,天津、贵州和青海等地已处于财政疲劳引起的债务不可持续状态,内蒙古等六省的条件期望债务空间不足20%,其余省份的条件期望债务空间仍相对充裕;最后,通过考察债务可持续性的改善渠道又进一步发现,财政透明度的提高可有效降低地方政府债务违约风险。     

Local Intergovernmental Competition and the Law of 1/n

This article proposes an empirical framework based on a synthesis of the seminal “Law of 1/n” and “Leviathan” theories, which models the relationship between government spending and the number of jurisdictions in a federal system as determined by the interplay of the costs related to centralized government (which fall as the number of jurisdictions increases) and the costs of distributive politics (which rise as the number of jurisdictions increases). Using a panel of U.S. state and local government spending data, empirical tests based on this combined framework show that the effect of intergovernmental competition predicted by the Leviathan model is partially offset by the Law of 1/n. This result helps explain the inconsistent findings in the previous empirical literature.     

长三角地区公共服务与经济增长的实证研究

近年来长三角地区经济增长引人注目,然而,公共服务却不能与之匹配。文章从经济增长与公共服务一般理论出发,分析该地区在一体化中两者动态关系,建立公共服务供给、政府竞争与经济增长的实证模型,并进行检验。研究首次发现,该地区公共服务供给增加初期会扩大地区间经济差距,但之后却有利于缩小差距,公共服务与经济差距呈现倒U型关系;且经济增长有利于公共服务供给增加;而地方政府间竞争则与公共服务供给呈负相关关系。     

China＇s Energy Reduction Policy System： Outcomes and Responses of Local Governments

The paper examines the outcomes of and responses to the policy system （the ＂obligatory indicator system＂） used by the Chinese central government to induce provincial governments to meet energy-saving targets during the llth Five Year Plan. The institutional mechanisms underlying the policy system that promotes implementation of energy saving are identified. An analytical framework is developed to identify the strategic responses of provincial governments and the factors shaping their responses. Comprehensive sets of provincial data on economic and energy performance are collected and analyzed. The findings indicate that the central government ＇s credible commitment to implement the policy system drove the initially disparate attitudes of provinces to a converged outcome. However, the outcome is significantly constrained by provinces ＇ initial energy intensity. In particular, provincial governments have applied strategies of ceremonial implementation, efficiency-oriented efforts and effectiveness-focused efforts to attain specific targets. This paper discusses the implications in comparison with the modified obligatory indicator system in the 12th Five Year Plan and offers policy suggestions accordingly.     

Efficiency measurement and decomposition for the Chinese state-owned commercial banks at the provincial level

This study adopts a bank production function approach to the measurement of efficiency of the Chinese state-owned commercial banking groups at the provincial level from 1998 to 2003. Applying Data Envelopment Analysis and efficiency decomposition analysis, this paper for the first time presents detailed empirical evidence on the technical efficiencies of the Chinese state-owned commercial banks across both the provinces and banking groups. The empirical evidence has revealed limited effects of the banking reform programmes and highlighted the need to encourage spatial competition and corporate governance reform across Chinese provinces and to take differential strategies to further improve operational efficiency at the provincial branch level.     

Implementation of socially optimal outcomes in the liquidation of public enterprises in China

The authors study an optimal cost-sharing scheme between the central and local governments in China's current process of dissolving public firms through mergers and bankruptcies. They first define the social choice rule that minimizes social costs, then design a mechanism that both implements this rule truthfully under imperfect information and minimizes the central government's payment. Collusion between the local government and local firms as well as competition among local firms are explored. The findings show that writing off the bad loans and hardening the budget constraint are two necessary conditions to provide right incentives for truthful revelation. This result is consistent with the predictions of other theories and some recent proposals of revitalizing the banking system and the state sector in China.     

基于复杂网络分析的区域战略性新兴产业创新能力评价

为科学合理地评价我国30个省市地区战略性新兴产业创新能力,立足复杂网络视角,提出基于余弦相似度-灰色模糊综合评价模型。首先对区域战略性新兴产业创新能力影响因素进行归纳分析,构建区域战略性新兴产业创新能力评价指标体系;其次基于余弦相似度与网络分析法建立复杂网络节点重要性评价模型以确定各指标权重;最后运用灰色模糊综合评价方法对区域战略性新兴产业创新能力进行评价。实证结果表明,2017年度我国东部、中部与西部三个区域中6个省市地区战略性新兴产业创新能力较好,其余24个省市地区则次之。     

地方官员涉农经历对农产品质量安全水平的空间溢出效应研究——来自中国地级市的证据

在农产品质量安全属地管理的背景下,从第一责任人地方官员视角研究农产品质量安全具有现实意义。文章基于2008-2018年中国地级市数据样本,结合烙印理论,从地区间策略互动视角研究了地方官员涉农经历对农产品质量安全水平的影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现:第一,使用零膨胀泊松模型检验显示,有涉农经历的地方官员对本地区的农产品质量安全水平的提升存在显著的正向影响,且这种正向影响具有持续性,并随着地方官员涉农程度的增加影响更加明显;第二,使用空间杜宾模型实证表明,地方官员涉农经历对邻近地区的农产品质量安全水平也具有正向的空间溢出效应;第三,进一步研究发现,在不同的经济规模、农业发展和农产品质量安全水平下,地方官员涉农经历对邻近地区的农产品质量安全水平空间溢出效应存在异质性,不同类型的涉农经历中乡镇工作经历的空间溢出影响最为显著。研究结果从地方官员的角度对提升区域农产品质量安全水平提供了理论支持和经验依据,可以通过涉农经历官员的交流任职或加强对官员涉农经历的培养,以期提升区域农产品质量安全水平。     

Biased data revisions: Unintended consequences of China's energy-saving mandates

In China energy-saving mandates issued by the central government can trigger a trade-off between faithful implementation and kinds of strategic responses at the local level. This paper examines the biased data revision pattern of Chinese provinces under incentives created by energy-saving mandates. The data revisions conducted by provinces in the treatment group are evaluated against those carried out by their counterparts in the control group. Empirical evidence is provided that some provinces in the treatment group conducted biased data revisions by taking advantage of benchmark revisions of historical data following the 2008 Economic Census. These provinces adjusted their base-year energy consumption figure upward in seeking to reach the 2010 energy intensity reduction targets numerically. In institutional terms, strong political incentives are formed by assigning energy-saving indicators a veto power in cadre performance assessment. In a self-reported statistical regime, checks and balances are particularly weak regarding benchmark revisions of historical data. The findings of this paper suggest that the data quality of associated official statistics at the local level is undermined by energy-saving mandates. To improve the data quality of the official statistics, new checks and balances should be installed for local statistics.     

The regional effects of macroeconomic shocks in China

The extent and persistence of the inequality of regional output is an important policy issue in China and its sources have been the subject of considerable empirical research. Yet we have relatively little empirical knowledge of the effects on the regional distribution of output of shocks to national macroeconomic variables such as GDP and investment. This is an important gap in the empirical literature since much government macroeconomic policy seeks to influence GDP using instruments such as investment expenditure. It is likely that such national shocks will have differential regional impacts and so affect the regional output distribution. Policy-makers need to know the sign, size and timing of such effects before making policy decisions at the national level. We simulate the effects of aggregate shocks on individual provinces' GDP within the framework of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model restricted in a manner following Lastrapes (Economics Letters, 2005). We use annual data from 1980 to 2012 to estimate the model which includes 28 of China's provinces and simulate the effects on provincial outputs of shocks to aggregate output and investment. We find great diversity of effects across the provinces with discernible geographic patterns. There is evidence that output shocks benefit coastal provinces with developed industrial structure, export-exposure and less reliance on SOEs; the opposite is found for the effects of an investment shock and we conjecture that this is likely to have been the result of the strong bias in central government investment policy in favour of the interior provinces during a substantial part of our sample period.