Exchange rate exposure and foreign exchange derivatives: do ineffective hedgers modify future derivatives use?

Recent studies examining the relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes have provided evidence that the exchange rate exposure of non-financial companies is reduced by the use of foreign exchange derivatives. Building on such research, this study investigates whether past ineffective derivative hedging contributes to explaining future derivatives use. To the extent that companies monitor the effectiveness of their currency risk management practices, past ineffective hedgers can be expected to modify their future use of foreign exchange derivatives accordingly. In our study of 94 non-financial US multinationals, we provide evidence that the change in derivatives use from 1996–1998 to 1998–2000 can be explained in part by the ineffective hedging of currency risk in 1996–1998, controlling for variables associated with theories of optimal hedging. Additional analyses confirm that such primary results are robust to firm size, the level of foreign operations, and the use of derivatives to partially hedge currency risk. Our results imply that as exchange markets and risk management practices change, the use of derivatives to manage exchange rate risk also changes. Our contribution to this field of study is that we find evidence that past ineffective hedgers tend to increase their future use of FXDs.     

Exchange rate exposure, foreign involvement and currency hedging of firms: some Swedish evidence

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on a firm's value, the so-called exchange rate exposure, for a sample of Swedish firms. In contrast to previous results, using U.S. data, the values of Swedish firms, as reflected in the stock price, seem quite sensitive to movements in the exchange rate. Studying the cross sectional differences in exposure, the estimated exposure is positively and significantly related to the fractional of total sales made abroad and negatively related to the use of currency derivatives.
F30, G10     

An analysis of asymmetry in foreign currency exposure of the Australian equities market

Using both daily and monthly data, the authors: (a) analyse the extra-market component of foreign exchange exposure of the Australian equities market using the Australian/US exchange rate factor return in an augmented market model; and (b) use a dummy variable specification to model the potential asymmetric effect induced by non-linear hedging strategies, such as using currency options, for the period 1988–1996. Overall, the results are mixed. The following are found: (i) stronger evidence of foreign exchange exposure in the analysis employing daily data; (ii) when using daily data, a stronger lagged response than a contemporaneous response is observed; (iii) some evidence of asymmetry; and (iv) evidence of significant exchange rate exposures of the predicted sign in several industries. Further, the findings using monthly data are less significant than those using daily data.     

The use of foreign currency derivatives and firm market value

This article examines the use of foreign currency derivatives(FCDs) in a sample of 720 large U.S. nonfinancial firms between1990 and 1995 and its potential impact on firm value. UsingTobin's Q as a proxy for firm value, we find a positive relationbetween firm value and the use of FCDs. The hedging premiumis statistically and economically significant for firms withexposure to exchange rates and is on average 4.87% of firm value.We also find some evidence consistent with the hypothesis thathedging causes an increase in firm value.     

Exchange traded currency derivatives markets in India: the road ahead

Indian exchanges have recently been permitted to offer currency futures on their platforms to the market participants. The paper outlines the contract, and charts the development and growth of currency futures in India since their inception in 2008. It emphasizes the existing close connectivity between commodity and currency markets. It highlights the increased exchange rate volatility of Indian exchange rate against US dollar (INRUSD) during conventional and non conventional trading hours and argues for the ability of the market to quickly adapt to extended trading hours. The paper recommends some new products and an alternative mechanism to settle the contracts.     

Exchange rate regimes, banking and the non-tradable sector

This paper presents a small-open-economy, two-good version of the Diamond and Dybvig model with cash constraints to analyze the implications on banking of different exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. I show that fixed exchange rates with a Central Bank providing liquidity in local currency imply Pareto efficiency, with conditions for a run equilibrium stronger than in the literature. In a flexible exchange rate regime, multiple equilibria may not be eliminated. In particular, for very a expansive monetary policy there exists an equilibrium where a fraction of patient consumers purchases dollars in the interim period, which constitutes a partial currency run. A dollarized banking system without international short-run credit may also implement the efficient allocation under certain conditions.     

Exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange rate change on stock returns in the Asian emerging markets. The asymmetric exchange exposure framework and real exchange rates are used in this paper to capture the different exposures between currency appreciation and depreciation and the high inflation effect in the emerging markets. My empirical results show that there did exist extensive exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets from 1997 to 2010. Moreover, foreign exchange exposure became more significant or greater during the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis periods, despite the frequent central banks’ interventions during these periods. The greater exchange exposure during the crisis periods can be attributable to net exporters or firms with dollar assets, implying that firms can reduce exchange exposures by decreasing their export ratio or dollar assets holding during times of crisis.     

Volatility in the foreign currency futures market

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreignexchange trading with transaction data on futures contractsfrom the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London InternationalFinancial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European andU.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. tradinghours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during Europeantrading hours. While the disclosure of private information throughtrading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we concludethat the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomicnews announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday dataalso reveals that volatility increases at times that coincidewith the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.     

The effects of SFAS 133 on foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations

This study examines the change in foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations (MNCs) upon implementation of SFAS 133—Disclosure of Derivative Instruments. We attempt to answer the question of whether this accounting requirement, which seeks to eliminate earnings surprises associated with derivatives, actually impacts earnings volatility and hedging strategies of exporting firms. Our results indicate that firms who were hedged prior to SFAS 133, i.e., those which managed their exposure using operational hedges, derivatives, or both, were able to decrease exposure to exchange rates following SFAS 133. However, those that were hedged prior to SFAS 133 and remained hedged following SFAS 133 did so without significantly changing their imbalances, i.e., without using operational hedges. These firms also experienced an increase in earnings volatility and a decrease in earnings predictability, as predicted by critics of the regulation. However, market value does not change following SFAS 133, implying that investors do not equate accounting regulation changes and EPS volatility with changes in cash flow.     

Exchange rate risk exposure and the value of European firms

This paper presents a new assessment of the exposure of European firms to exchange rate fluctuations which takes into account the potential common drivers of exchange rates and equity market conditions. Using monthly data for European firms from 1999 to 2011, we assess the impact of unexpected fluctuations in the USD, JPY, GBP and CHF against the Euro, and show that the proportion of firms subject to exchange rate risk is considerably larger when estimation accounts for potential common drivers and firm-specific factors than otherwise. Firm exposure to exchange rate risk is affected by the level of international involvement, industry, firm size and country of origin. European firms with largely domestic operations reveal the greatest vulnerability to unexpected exchange rate movements, suggesting an opportunity to improve risk management for these companies.     

Efficiency of the foreign currency options market

This paper provides a new test of the efficiency of the currency option markets for four major currencies — British Pound, Euro, Swiss Frank and Japanese Yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. The approach is to simulate trading strategies to see if the well-accepted no-arbitrage condition of put–call parity (PCP) holds in a trading environment. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests are used to check for the presence of unit roots in the data, followed by a formal econometric analysis. The results indicate that the most currency option prices do not violate the PCP conditions, when transaction costs are allowed for.     

No puzzle: The foreign exchange exposure of Australian firms

In this paper we analyze the constant and time-varying influence of currency movements on the value of Australian firms listed on the S&P/ASX 100 index for a period from 1980 to 2010 using daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly returns. Whilst the constant exposure model provides only weak evidence over the full sample period the time-varying exposure analysis reveals that most firms are exposed to currency movements in some periods. The exchange rate exposure of Australian firms is dependent on the appreciation or depreciation trajectory of the Australian dollar and on the sample frequencies used. The positive average FX exposure is consistent with the structure of the Australian economy, the size of the mining sector and the role of the Australian dollar as a commodity currency. Finally, we argue that our findings are fully consistent with financial theory and do not constitute a puzzle.     

The use of undisclosed limit orders on the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the use of undisclosed limit orders on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). Our findings suggest that undisclosed limit orders are used to reduce the option value of limit orders. We find no evidence that undisclosed limit orders are more frequently used by informed traders than disclosed limit orders. The effects of recent changes in undisclosed order regulation are also examined. We find that the enhancement in pre-trade transparency, through tightening the undisclosed order regulation in October 1994, resulted in a significant decline in trading volume. The impact of the second regulation change in October 1996, which further tightened undisclosed order regulation, resulted in a less significant trading volume reduction.     

Exchange rate exposure in the pre- and post-Euro periods: evidence from Finland

This paper investigates asymmetric as well as first- and second-moment exchange rate exposure of the Finnish stock exchange (FSE) during the pre- and post-Euro periods. There is evidence of significant market-level and residual exchange rate exposure in the pre-Euro period. In the period, following the introduction of the Euro, however, exchange rate exposure becomes insignificant both at the market level and at the individual portfolio level with minor exceptions. Obviously, the introduction of the Euro has had a profound impact on the exchange rate exposure of the FSE.     

Evidence of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets

Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examinedfor evidence of risk premium. Covariance risks are measuredwith respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfoliosfor consumption and wealth. When the parameters representingthe prices of the covariance risks are held constant, no riskpremiums are detected. However, when these prices are allowedto vary with the conditional expected returns and variancesof the benchmark portfolios, possibly reflecting changing investmentopportunities, strong evidence of risk premiums is obtained.     

On the pricing of European and American foreign currency call options

This study uses Cox-Ross analysis and dynamic programming techniques to price foreign currency call options. We show that, under certain conditions, the American call price will exceed its European counterpart, while under other conditions the two prices will be identical. We find that the American premium is a complex function of the degree to which an option is in or out of the money, and that this premium is greatest when an option is near in or out. We present empirical evidence which shows that the American model significantly improves upon a European model; however, significant pricing errors associated with the American model remain.     

Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets

This study investigates the relation between trading activities and the price discovery efficacy of the futures markets for EUR–USD and JPY–USD. According to data pertaining to weekly positions, collected from the Commitments of Traders reports distributed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the information share of currency futures markets declines with hedgers’ positions but increases with speculators’ positions. In addition, both hedgers’ expected and unexpected positions have negative impacts on the contribution of the futures market; the futures market’s information share relates positively to speculators’ expected positions but is uncorrelated with speculators’ unexpected positions.     

Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe

Foreign currency loans represent an important feature of recent financial developments in CEECs. This might pose a serious challenge for macroeconomic stability. Against this background, we study the determinants of foreign currency loans of households, using data on the behavior of households in nine CEECs. Our results reveal that foreign currency loans are driven by households’ lack of trust in the stability of the local currency and in domestic financial institutions. Moreover, special factors including remittances and expectations of euro adoption play an important role in selected regions. The financial crisis reduced foreign currency borrowing, but there is some indication this effect might be only temporary.     

Arbitrage tests of the efficiency of the foreign currency options market

In this paper the lower boundary, excercise price, and put-call parity conditions for foreign currency options are subjected to empirical testing. The tests are directed towards the examination of the hypothesis that the foreign currency option market is efficient. The evidence in the ex-post tests is inconsistent with this hypothesis since a large number of violations of theoretical conditions are found in the data.     

Google Internet search activity and volatility prediction in the market for foreign currency

I study whether evolution in the number of Google Internet searches for particular keywords can predict volatility in the market for foreign currency. I find that data on Google searches for the keywords economic crisis + financial crisis and recession has incremental predictive power beyond the GARCH(1,1). These results support the mixture of distributions hypothesis in that volatility is linked to the stochastic rate at which information flows into the marketplace. These results also demonstrate the potential for Google to become a storehouse of information for financial markets.