THE PROPERTIES OF CYCLES IN SOUTH AFRICAN FINANCIAL VARIABLES AND THEIR RELATION TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE

The paper describes cyclicality in a range of local and international financial variables and their relation to cyclical behaviour in the South African real economy. Cycles are derived using a dating algorithm similar to that used to determine business cycle turning points and falls within the Burns‐Mitchell tradition of business cycle analysis. Co‐movement between phases in financial variables and similar phases in the business cycle are described using the concordance statistic, instead of the correlation statistic (which requires stationarity). This is a preliminary step in identifying financial variables that can act as leading indicators of economic activity.     

Financial intermediaries and economic development: The Belgian case

Abstract

The role of financial intermediaries in economic development has been highlighted, most recently, by John Gurley and Edward Shaw, who contend that most economists consider only real variables in their analyses of economic development while neglecting those which are strictly financial in nature.¹ To remedy this neglect Gurley and Shaw have constructed a model which stresses the developmental aspects of financial intermediaries. This paper is an application of that model to Belgium in the 1830s. It first presents the model in skeletal form and then briefly describes the state of the Belgian economy during the 1830's. The focal point of the paper is an analysis of the activities of the Société Générale de Belgique and the Banque de Belgique, the first large-scale financial intermediaries to engage in development finance.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.     

Racial differences in intersegment mobility

This article is an exploration of racial differences in the intersegment mobility process in a segmented labor market. To this end, a series of qualitative response models describing mobility of prime-age white and nonwhite males through a tripartite segmented labor market is constructed. It is found that demand variables representing labor market conditions, as well as traditional human capital variables are important predictors of intersegment mobility. It is also evident that there are striking racial differences in intersegment mobility patterns. This paper was written with financial support from the Marriner S. Eccles Grant for research in political economy. Also, partial support was received from First Interstate Bank.     

上海国际金融中心建设与长三角一体化：基于实体经济与金融业协同发展的思考

上海国际金融中心建设与长江三角洲区域一体化发展都是国家战略,两者的发展具有十分重要的战略意义和示范作用。金融本身不创造价值,其收益来自实体经济,其作用在于提高资源配置效率,实体经济与金融业协同发展,能够将实体经济与金融业相互争夺利益的"零和"游戏局面,转变为互利共赢关系。扎实的实体经济是金融中心建设的基础,实体经济的发展可以完善金融中心的功能,由实体经济带动的金融中心更加持久稳定,在长三角一体化过程中,实体经济与金融业协同发展能更好发挥规模经济,能构建更加完善稳定的产业链,发挥产业间的互利效应,发挥产业内的集聚效应。建议在上海国际金融中心建设以及长三角一体化过程中,以实体经济与金融业协同发展为本,以制造业与金融业协同为先,肩负起产业和区域经济稳定器功能,成立长三角基础设施投资银行。     

金融业国际化发展与经济竞争力——基于浙江视角的实证研究

浙江省金融业国际化通过多种效应对经济产生重要的拉动作用。本文利用2006年1月至2009年12月的月度时间序列数据,对变量进行了Granger因果关系检验,建立了基于VEC模型的脉冲响应函数,对浙江经济竞争力对金融业国际化发展的动态响应结果进行了分析。检验结果表明,浙江省金融业的国际化发展有利于浙江省经济竞争力的提高。基于上述结论,本文提出了浙江金融业国际化发展的对策建议。     

Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle

Borio et al. show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. They show that incorporating information on the financial cycle yields measures of potential output and output gaps for the United States, United Kingdom and Spain that are estimated more precisely and are more robust in real time. With its well‐developed financial markets and relatively open capital markets, the South African economy is potentially susceptible to the build‐up of the sort of financial imbalances that characterised the recent financial crisis. Using the framework developed in Borio et al., a finance‐neutral measure of the output gap is estimated for South Africa. The traditional Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended to incorporate information on credit and property prices. Including financial cycle proxies result in output gaps that are estimated more precisely and are more robust to data revisions and the arrival of new data points (i.e. estimated output gaps are more robust in real time), while also reflecting the impact of financial variables on economic activity. As such, the estimated finance‐neutral output gap seems to represent a more appropriate measure on which to base monetary policy decisions.     

The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Stock Prices: In Search of State Dependence

Federal bureaus make regularly scheduled public announcements of macroeconomic variables such as employment, the price level, and the money stock. Recently, several studies claim to establish an empirical relationship between the impact of these announcements on financial markets and the state of the business cycle. The present article estimates the impact of several announcement variables on daily closing values of the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500. Contrary to previous studies, this study finds no significant evidence that the marginal effects of announcements vary with the state of the economy.     

基于三阶段DEA模型的高新技术企业创新效率研究

在总结已有研究成果基础上,构建适用于高新技术企业的效率指标体系.选取5个环境变量,运用三阶段DEA模型对2017年中国30个地区的高新技术企业的创新效率进行实证研究.再分为东北部地区、东部地区、中部地区、西部地区,研究高新技术企业技术创新效率的空间分布特征.结果表明,在剔除了环境变量和随机干扰之后,各地区高新技术企业效率值较之前明显下降;企业数量、科技孵化器支持和政府财政支持对高新技术企业的效率有显著的促进作用,而高学历人员和宏观经济却起着相反的作用;四大区域之间创新效率也有所差异,具体表现为东>中>西>东北.在此基础上提出相应的政策建议以促进高新技术企业效率的提升.     

金融集聚促进了企业数字化转型吗 ——基于企业年报文本大数据分析的经验证据

企业数字化转型作为中国数字经济的最小微观构成,其发展离不开高质量的金融供给支撑。文章利用2007—2019年中国A股上市企业数据集,分析金融集聚对企业数字化转型的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,金融集聚能够显著促进企业数字化转型,特别是对于非国有企业、战略性新兴产业及位于初创期、成熟期的企业驱动效果更加明显。机制研究发现,金融集聚能够通过缓解融资约束、改善企业预期和促进企业创新能力提升等三种传导路径助力企业开展数字化转型。特别地,金融监管是金融集聚更好释放效力的重要外部基础条件,在金融监管强度大的地区中,金融集聚能够有效助力企业数字化转型活动。本项研究从新的视角为理解金融发展与企业创新转型提供了经验证据。     

The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland

The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.     

Financial Management, Bargaining and Efficiency within the Household; an Empirical Analysis

This paper analyzes data from the British Household Panel Survey on households' financial management and financial decision-making. Direct subjective information was collected by asking questions like ‘Who has the final say in big financial decisions?’. All questions were answered separately by both partners. We consider two competing models explaining how finances are organized. The first model is based on a household production approach, in which behaviour is determined by an efficient allocation of both partners' time to market work, financial management, and leisure. In the second model, which is game-theoretic in nature, financial management is a reflection of bargaining power. The two models have different implications for the effect of explanatory variables, in particular wages, on the dependent variables. Empirical results indicate that financial management is primarily determined by bargaining considerations.     

数字经济助力农业现代化发展现状及对策

在分析了数字经济赋能农业现代化作用机制的基础上，构建数字经济和农业现代化的综合评价体系，通过熵权法得出17个省份的综合得分，对各省市的综合得分进行固定效应回归得出结果：数字经济发展指数对农业现代化具有积极的促进作用；此外，还发现财政教育支出和农业生产设备投入对农业现代化的促进作用很小，即财政教育支出和农业生产设备投入对农业现代化的转化效率不足，并简单分析其转化率不足的原因。     

中国宏观经济走势及其对策

当前国际经济形势不容乐观，国际金融动荡加剧之势尚未缓和，全球经济增速已经明显放缓，经济发展的不确定性、不稳定性因素还在增加；世界经济格局正在发生变化，中国在世界经济中的地位更显重要并将发挥更大的作用。受国际经济影响，中国经济也出现很多难以解决的问题，主要表现为出口明显萎缩、增长势头减弱、企业尤其是中小企业资金周转困难、企业经营成本上升。促进国家的整体经济发展，救急的措施是：减轻税收，投资拉动，降低贷款利率和实行金融创新，加大出口退税力度，扩大就业和增加居民尤其是农村居民收入：长远的考虑是：宏观经济应由“出口导向型”转为“内需主导型”，调整产业结构以促进产业结构的优化和升级，以技术创新和节能环保为重点推进经济发展方式的转变，进一步推进体制创新为发展提供体制保障。     

论新经济形势下企业财务战略管理及对策

改革开放以来,我国经济市场从计划经济时代转变为市场经济时代,并且形成了全方位竞争局面;加入世贸以后,我国经济市场不断热化,企业和企业之间竞争的宽度和深度不断增加。企业如何准确定位财务战略管理,成了当时企业深入研究的问题;随着全球经济一体化的逐渐演变,这对我国企业财务战略管理产生了巨大的冲击和影响,企业正从树立质量理念和品牌理念的角逐市场环境的变化、竞争格局的形成、高新技术的应用、消费观念的更新,要求企业财务管理的观念到方式,从企业的经营理念到市场定位,都要作出相应的变革,才能适应发展的需要。然而,由于我国企业对于财务战略定位的认识尚存偏差和不足,使企业管理层在工作中走入一些误区,影响了财务战略的制定和有效实施。本文作者通过对企业财务战略管理的瞻前顾后,尝试着提出一系列新的建议与方案。     

改革开放以来金融风险的本质特征及防控启示——兼论中国共产党领导下的防控金融风险探索与实践

改革开放以来,立足于"新兴+转轨"的基本经济特征,中国的金融风险既表现出转轨经济条件下特有的风险特征,又表现出新兴市场经济的典型风险特征。中国防范化解金融风险始终与自身经济增长、金融发展之间进行统筹兼顾,先后经历了社会主义市场经济培育探索、快速成长、加速开放以及高质量发展四个阶段。历史地看,各个阶段的防控实践留下重要启示：（1）坚守底线、理性务实的风险思维是防控金融风险的重要法宝;（2）维护中央金融集权主导与地方适当分权的辩证统一;（3）尊重实体经济以及金融业的客观发展规律,严防脱实向虚;（4）金融监管体系须在平衡金融创新与金融风险之间与时俱进;（5）坚持中国共产党的全面领导,不断推进马克思主义的中国化时代化,是实现上述四点的根本政治保障。     

The Categorization of Small Open Economies and the Response to Foreign Interest Rate Shocks: Based on Financial Integration and Net External Credit

To analyze precisely effects of foreign interest rate hike shocks, this paper categorizes small open economies into four kinds of types based on the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level. The empirical result shows that responses of macroeconomic variables tend to differ substantially depending on the type of a small open economy. These findings imply that we need to consider the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level of a small open economy when we predict the effect of a foreign interest rate hike shock.     

ASSESSING MONETARY POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA IN A DATA‐RICH ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines the efficacy of monetary policy in the South African economy using a data‐rich framework. We use the Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) methodology, which contains 110 monthly variables for the period 1985:02‐2007:11. The results, based on impulse‐response functions, provide no evidence of the price puzzle observed in traditional Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis and confirm that monetary policy in South Africa is effective in stabilising prices. Unlike the traditional vector autoregressive approach, the FAVAR methodology allows further analysis of a large number of variables. Variables from real and financial variables react negatively to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Finally, we find evidence of the importance of a confidence channel transmission following a monetary policy shock.     

建设节约型社会的金融视角

转变经济增长方式,提高经济增长的质量,重在提高资源配置效率。金融资源配置是经济资源配置的关键,金融效率的高低在很大程度上决定着整个经济效率的高低。金融业:一方面,面临着如何抓住机遇、提高自身金融资源运用效率的问题;另一方面,金融的一项重要职能就是通过对资金资源的配置,引导其他生产要素的合理配置和优化。从这个意义上来讲,金融又是建立资源节约型经济的一个主要切入点。本文通过重新审视节约型社会的涵义,深入剖析了金融在促进经济社会发展、支持节约型社会建设中的作用,并对如何实现金融资源最优配置以支持建立节约型社会问题进行了探讨。     

China's Economic Transition Syndrome

Following 30 years of high economic growth, China's economy is in the midst of a classic transition from an industrial to a post‐industrial economy. In this transition period, the mismatch between supply and demand is growing, while the country's economic growth engine is weakening. Stimulus policies have aimed to maintain the country's economic growth momentum but they have come at the price of sharply increased financial fragility and resource misallocation, both of which are harmful to economic growth. China's “economic transition syndrome” refers to the vicious cycle of slowing GDP growth, combined with increasing demand for stimulus policies, and increasing financial fragility and resource misallocation.