Core Import Price Inflation in the United States

The cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or traditional measures of core import price inflation. We examine whether limited influence estimators of core import price inflation help forecast overall import price inflation. They do not. However, limited influence estimators of core import price inflation do seem to have some predictive power for headline consumer price inflation in the medium term.     

利用结构VAR模型估计中国的核心通货膨胀率

本文将Quah and Vahey(1995)的SVAR拓展为三变量模型,并以垂直的菲利普斯曲线为理论基础,施加三个长期约束条件,以识别三变量SVAR模型.从缩减式VAR的估计残差中还原出结构冲击,从脉冲响应函数中还原出结构冲击对各变量的影响.依据Quah andVahey的核心通货膨胀定义从受限制的SVAR模型中估计出我国的核心通货膨胀率.从估计效果来看,首先是能够完全反应我国通货膨胀演化的历史过程;其次是具有较高的预测未来通货膨胀变动的能力.因此对于货币当局的决策具有一定的指导意义.     

货币供应、通胀预期管理与物价调控手段

基于VAR模型的物价波动成因的实证分析显示,1992年以来货币因素对CPI的贡献率为70.03%,货币始终是影响我国物价的主要因素;但2003年以来,影响物价的因素变得更为复杂,物价上涨主要由劳动力成本、通胀预期和货币因素共同拉动,其对CPI的贡献率分别为39.97%、26.73%和25.19%,输入性通胀因素对CPI的贡献率为8.11%。现阶段稳定物价水平不仅要注重控制货币供应,更应注重劳动生产率的提高和通胀预期的管理。     

中国通货膨胀率与其不确定性之间的非线性动态关系

通货膨胀率和通货膨胀不确定性之间相互影响,二者之间的内在关系对政府运用货币政策具有重要的现实意义。本文采用1990年1月以来居民消费价格指数(CPI)的月度数据,结合随机域回归模型、系列随机域的非线性检验方法、最大似然估计及贝叶斯估计方法,对我国通货膨胀率与通货膨胀不确定性的关系进行了实证分析。实证研究发现,通货膨胀率引起了通货膨胀不确定性,两者呈现非线性的U型关系,支持了Friedman假说;大的通货膨胀不确性引起通货膨胀率先升后降,呈现非线性倒U曲线关系,Cukierman-Meltzer假说在U型左侧范围内成立,于U型右侧Holland结论成立。     

Goods Inflation,Asset Inflation,and the Greatest Peacetime Inflation in the US

In every episode of global monetary inflation originating in the Federal Reserve, we find both asset price inflation and goods inflation. The interrelationship between these two types of inflation depends both on cycle-specific factors and more general factors which transcend the cycle and stem from essential aspects of monetary disorder. The purpose of this article is to analyse the nature of this interrelationship and elaborate on the concepts of monetary disorder, goods inflation, and asset inflation. In today’s world of monetary systems where there is no stable demand for high-powered money (which itself is no longer a highly distinct asset) monetary disorder can be hard to recognize until quite late in the inflationary process. Asset price inflation now has a popular meaning quite different from the original found in Austrian business cycle theory. Two decades of widespread inflation targeting at around 2% per annum have encouraged us to ignore an old lesson. In a well-functioning capitalist economy under a sound money order, prices would fluctuate considerably upwards and downwards with a tendency to revert to the mean over the very long run. Finally the principles and hypotheses developed here are analysed in the laboratory of history, specifically for the greatest peacetime inflation in the U.S. (1963–80).     

研判高通胀成因

尽快改革强制结售汇制度,转变为意愿结售汇;加快资本账户的开放步伐、人民币的自由兑换步伐;切实加强国家储备制度的建设,提速发展新能源. 质疑结构性通货膨胀观点 2007年5月份以来,我国届民消费价格呈逐月上涨态势,特别自8月份开始,连续5个月同比涨幅均突破6%,全年平均上涨4.8%,明显高于年初提出的价格涨幅3%的预期目标,为1997年以来近10年的最高涨幅.     

知识转移对供应链中核心企业绩效的影响

本文在效率型和响应型供应链背景下,以供应商和顾客之间的核心企业为分析对象,在对相关研究文献梳理总结的基础上,提出了结构性知识和程序性知识的顺向知识流入(来自供应商一侧的知识转移)、逆向知识流入(来自顾客一侧的知识转移)以及垂直知识流入(来自集成化供应链的知识转移)对核心企业绩效影响理论框架。     

通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与中国实际产出增长

基于中国1993年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,本文采用双变量GARCH模型测量了中国通货膨胀不确定性,并借助于传统的Granger因果检验以及基于马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型下Granger因果检验等方法对通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与中国实际产出增长进行了实证研究.本文研究发现:中国通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性之间存在着Granger意义上的双向因果性,在作用机制上支持了Okun-Friedman理论假说以及Holland论断;传统的Granger因果检验表明中国通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性对中国实际产出增长之间存在Granger意义上的因果性,但是基于MS-VAR模型的Granger因果检验研究则表明上述因果性仅存在于特定的机制下.     

The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand*

We explore the impact of inflation uncertainty on output growth in Thailand, an emerging market economy with moderate inflation. Inflation and output uncertainty are modeled in a bivariate constant conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR(p)‐cccGARCH(1,1)) specification. We include the exchange rate in the mean equations, and use the headline and core inflation rates and industrial production to generate inflation and output uncertainty series. These series are then used in Granger causality tests to make inferences about the effect of monetary policy‐induced inflation uncertainty. Causality tests show a positive relation from inflation to inflation uncertainty. Additionally, increased inflation uncertainty decreases output. These results are consistent with real costs associated with moderate inflation. Finally, we find no evidence that monetary policy reduced these costs.     

New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials

What determines the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials? The answer has strong implications for monetary policy and in Europe for the Stability and Growth Pact. In the United States, inflation rates move pro-cyclically, and across the Euro Area, inflation differentials are positively correlated with growth differentials. This suggests that demand shocks are the primary determinants of the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials. In this paper, we discuss New Keynesian explanations of these correlations, and we argue that demand shocks are either missing or inadequately modeled in the in typical New Keynesian model.     

Accuracy of Relative Weights on Multiple Leading Performance Measures: Effects on Managerial Performance and Knowledge

Many firms that use multiple lead measures in their performance measurement systems do not validate the causal model linking these measures to future financial outcomes, and the cause‐and‐effect relationships in the model are often left to subjective estimates that may be prone to errors. Using an experiment, this study examines how the accuracy of assumptions about the relative importance of lead measures in a causal model affects managerial performance and knowledge, when managers are given the opportunity to learn over multiple periods. The results show that having inaccurate relative weights on lead measures improves performance, reduces performance variability, and enhances knowledge, relative to not having any weights. Furthermore, performance is similar under accurate versus inaccurate relative weights, whereas knowledge is better under inaccurate than accurate relative weights, providing no support for the biasing effects of inaccurate relative weights. The findings suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, managers benefit even if they are given inaccurate relative weights on lead measures, and they are able to correct those inaccuracies to reach a comparable level of performance and knowledge as if they had been given accurate relative weights.     

社会主义核心价值观与我国政府绩效管理价值取向发展

“富强、民主、文明、和谐”与“人本”是建设有中国特色社会主义社会的核心价值观,也是我国政府绩效管理应当坚持和贯彻的价值取向。     

货币投放不控制 通胀存隐忧

从长期来看,不得不关注可能发生通货膨胀的隐忧。由于当前宽松的货币政策,货币当局放出了巨大流动性,如果没有适度调控,在未来就不得不面对通胀的可能     

Inflation in developing Asia

Inflation emerged as the single biggest macroeconomic challenge confronting developing Asia during 2007–2008, although inflationary pressures have abated since the second half of 2008 due to the global crisis. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of different sources of inflation in developing Asia. In particular, it tests the widely held view that the region's inflationary surge during 2007–2008 was primarily the result of external price factors such as oil and food shocks. Our central empirical result is that, contrary to popular misconception, Asia's inflation is largely homegrown and has arisen due to excess aggregate demand and inflationary expectations, rather than external price shocks. This suggests monetary policy will remain a powerful tool in fighting inflation in Asia, as well as in defusing the risks of deflation.     

The Use and Usefulness of Performance Measures in the Public Sector

The paper focuses on the empirical evidence on the use and usefulnessof performance measures in the public sector. It begins withconsideration of the features of the public sector which makethe use of performance measures complex: the issues of multipleprincipals and multiple tasks. It discusses the form that performancemeasures may take, the use made of these measures, and the responsesthat individuals may make to them. Empirical examples from thefields of education and health, with a focus on the USA andUK, are examined. There is clear evidence of responses to suchmeasures. Some of these responses improve efficiency, but othersdo not and fall into the category of ‘gaming’. Generally,there has been little assessment of whether performance measuresbring about improvements in service. The paper ends with considerationof how such measures should be used and what measures are usefulto collect.     

不同服务企业的核心能力与绩效改进探析

随着企业竞争的白热化和竞争焦点向服务竞争的转移,有关服务管理的研究正日益引起理论界和实业界的高度重视。因此,本文测试图立足于 角度,在对服务企业进行科举安类的基础上,从构建服务企业的竞争优势和增加服务企业的竞争能力的角度出发,探讨了不同类型服务企业的核心 能力和绩 效改进问题。     

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. Inflation expectations do not converge significantly faster than actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size following the introduction of the euro. This suggests that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy. JEL no.  D84, E31, E58