动态拨备规则的西班牙经验及其在中国实施的可行性分析

文章基于预期损失模型分析了动态贷款损失拨备规则的作用机制,并总结了西班牙实施动态拨备规则的模式和实施效果。研究表明,动态拨备规则能提高银行体系的风险缓冲能力和增强其稳健性,并可作为危机后抑制银行顺周期行为的逆周期资本监管措施的重要补充工具。文章认为我国短期内全面推行动态拨备规则的条件和时机并不具备,但我们应借鉴西班牙动态拨备经验,与《新巴塞尔资本协议》的国内实施时间表相结合,适时改革和推出符合中国国情的银行业前瞻性拨备制度,提高国内银行的风险管理和抵御冲击能力。     

Globalization and the decline in labor shares: Exploring the relationship beyond trade and financial flows

We employ data from up to 125 countries during the 1970–2009 period to explore the relationship between globalization and labor share. Existing studies report a negative relationship between trade and investment flows and labor shares. While we also find that economic flows are often negatively related to labor shares, measures of social globalization tend to be positively related to labor shares. While greater mobility of goods and capital may be associated with increases in capital's bargaining power, all else equal, greater flows of information, ideas, and people may increase the bargaining power of workers.     

Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries

This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top 1 percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares.     

Human appropriation of aboveground net primary production in Spain, 1955-2003: An empirical analysis of the industrialization of land use

The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is an indicator of the human domination of ecosystems that measures to which extent human activities alter the amount of biomass available each year in ecosystems. This paper analyses the development of aboveground HANPP (aHANPP) in Spain for the period from 1955 to 2003. During this period, Spain's agriculture underwent a transition from a largely pre-industrial to a highly intensified production system. Changes in land use patterns include a reduction of cropland area and an expansion of forest area. Results show that aHANPP declined from 67% of potential aNPP in 1955 to 61% in 2003. Biomass harvest strongly increased from 68 million tons dry matter biomass per year (Mt/yr) to 106 Mt/yr, with nearly all of this increase occurring on cropland. Productivity losses due to human-induced land conversions dropped significantly from 112 Mt/yr to 63 Mt/yr, mainly as a result of the surge in cropland productivity and the increase in forest area. Despite its decrease during the last decades, aHANPP in Spain is still at a remarkably high level in comparison with the global average or other industrialized countries.     

上市公司股权激励存在的问题与对策

2014年伊始,A股上市公司就掀起股权激励的热潮,截至3月份,已有益生股份、东华能源、鸿利光电等27家上市公司推出股权激励预案。在我国,股权激励在A股市场已经历了四个阶段,从最开始的萌芽期到股改时的冲动期,再到股权激励的相关办法相继出台后的规范期;随着中小企业板及创业板的长足发展及民营企业的大量上市,目前已经进入了快速发展期。随着股权激励计划在我国上市公司的普遍推行,大量问题涌现出来,严重影响实施股权激励的效用。     

Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications

The almost ideal demand system is used as a representation of long run demands in discrete time and continuous time error correction models to produce forecasts of budget shares beyond the sample period. The estimated models are subjected to a battery of tests, and an analysis of the forecasts indicates that continuous time adjustment mechanisms, based around fully modified estimates of the long run preference parameters, provide a remarkably accurate method of forecasting budget shares.     

中国制造业空间结构变动及其对区域分工的影响

本文针对空间经济学所关注的区位锁定效应,提出了产业空间结构变动"过程"和"结果"的度量方法;应用制造业数据计算发现,1996—2005年期间,中国制造业空间结构变动过程和结果都同时表现出聚集和扩散两类特征,其中聚集占绝对优势。另外,在改进产业结构相似系数的基础上,重新计算了1996—2005年区域产业结构冲突指标,以及各行业对该指标贡献率,发现扩散过程对于区域产业结构冲突的贡献远大于聚集过程,接受扩散且被聚集的地区产业结构冲突性最强。     

Reversal in the relative performance of state- and legal person-owned companies during the Chinese split share structure reform

The split share structure reform was started in 2005 with the object of re-designating state-related, nontradable shares into tradable shares. The article compares the two major forms of state ownership in China (direct or indirect ownership) showing that, close to the reform period, companies directly held by the state experience a significant increase in market performance relative to indirectly held companies. Results suggest that investors’ perception about the worth of these two forms of state ownership may have suffered a reversal, thus bringing to light value-related consequences ensuing from protective schemes usual in China and elsewhere. The article also addresses a recurrent pitfall relating to the use in empirical models of fractions of the same total and shows that U-shaped patterns found in the relationship between ownership and performance are transient rather than stable.     

Fuel Prices,Sales Taxes and Passenger Car Market Shares in New Zealand, 1963–1978*

This paper estimates a set of market share equations for new passenger cars in New Zealand over the period 1963 to 1978. These equations are then used to determine the effects on market shares of the fuel price increases and tax rate changes that occurred in the 1970s. The results indicate that the fuel price increases had a major impact on market shares, but that the tax changes probably did not.     

The innovation effect of dual-class shares: New evidence from US firms

The proliferation of dual-class structures in the US stock market presents a controversial trend since such shares are traditionally deemed to damage governance quality. We study the relationship between 362 firms with dual-class shares and their innovativeness using patent citations from Google Patents over the 1976 through 2006 period. We find dual-class shares have significant innovation effect in high-tech sectors, hard-to-innovate industries, firms with higher external takeover threat and firms heavily dependent on external equity financing. We also document a positive causality relationship between dual-class structures and the quality of innovation. The channel for this causal relationship is the protection mechanism by which managers can take a long-term view. From a policy perspective, regulators should promote a corporate governance system that protects corporate long-term interest for shareholders.     

Fixed investment and economic growth: new results on causality

This study re-examines the issue of causality between investment shares and economic growth. A methodology is applied based on Arellano and Bond (1991), and Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen (1988) to quinquennial panel data on growth and investment shares for the post war period and shows that, contrary to previous results in the literature, causality between fixed investment and growth runs in both directions. Investment shares Granger-cause growth rates and growth rates Granger-cause investment shares. Granger causality from investment shares to growth rates is found to be negative. The result is in contrast with a capital fundamentalist view which sees fixed investment as the key to long run growth, but is fully consistent with the predictions of Solow-type growth models.     

第一大股东对公司治理、企业业绩的影响分析

本文以 1 997年以前在中国上市的 50 8个上市公司 1 997— 2 0 0 0年 4年间的2 0 3 2个观察值为样本 ,研究了第一大股东的所有权性质、第一大股东的变更对公司治理效力和企业业绩的影响。本文的研究发现 ,上市公司第一大股东的所有权性质不同 ,其公司业绩、股权结构和治理效力也不同。第一大股东为非国家股股东的公司有着更高的企业价值和更强的盈利能力 ,在经营上更具灵活性 ,公司治理的效力更高 ,其高级管理层也面临着更多的来自企业内部和市场的监督和激励。另外 ,本文的研究还发现 ,对于不同性质的公司 ,第一大股东的变更带来的影响也有所不同 ,但基本上都是正面的。第一大股东的变更有利于公司治理效力的提高 ,有利于公司规模的扩大和管理的更加专业化。本文的研究为国有股减持和股权多元化提供了经验证据 ,论证了控制权转移市场对深化改革和完善公司治理的重要性     

An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy

Summary In 1985–86 the authors were members of a team that constructed a static applied general equilibrium model that was used to analyze the impact on the Spanish economy of the 1986 fiscal reform, which accompanied Spain's entry into the European Community. This paper compares the results obtained to recently published data for 1985–87; we find that the model performed well in predicting the changes in relative prices and resource allocation that actually occurred, particularly if we incorporate exogenous shocks that affected the Spanish economy in 1986. We also analyze the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications of the labor market and macroeconomic closure rules; we find that the central results are robust.We gratefully acknowledge financial support from NSF Grant SES 89-22036 (Kehoe) and CICYT Grant PB 89 + 0309 (Polo and Sancho). We thank participants in the IIASA Applied General Equilibrium Conference, Laxenburg, Austria, August 1991; the International Trade Workshop at UCLA, March 1992; the Graduate Public Finance Course at the University of Minnesota, Winter 1993; Antonio Gomez Gomez-Plana; and Betsy Caucutt for helpful suggestions. Above all, we wish to thank our colleagues who have worked with us on the MEGA (Model d'Equilibri General Aplicat) Project at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Antonio Manresa, Pedro Javier Noyola, Jaime Serra-Puche, Cristina Echevarria, Walter Garcia, Ana Laborda, and Xavier Ramirez. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

股权分置改革市场效应的实证分析

目前中国股市问题的症结,不在于人们经常批评的新兴加转轨市场的种种不规范和不成熟,而是另有一股更强大的力量推动股市的重心持续下移。由于特殊的历史原因,我国证券市场形成了非流通股和流通股两种不同性质的股票,造成同一上市公司的股票同股不同价、同股不同权的股权分置现象。在借鉴国内外研究文献的基础上,结合目前我国证券市场的现状,检验和分析了股权分置改革给我国证券市场带来的影响。     

Investment and the soft budget constraint in China

This paper examines the incentive effects of the soft budget constraint on the investment behavior of firms in general and on the investment-cash flow sensitivity in particular. To this end, we develop a simple model of moral hazard that takes the soft budget constraint into account. Within this moral hazard environment, we show that investment is positively related to the amount of internal funds. We further show that the presence of the soft budget constraint deteriorates the moral hazard problem, thereby making the investment level less sensitive to the amount of internal funds. This is the case irrespective of whether the soft budget constraint renders the firm more or less liquidity constrained. To test the model's empirical implications, we employ data of China's listed companies for the period from 1997 to 2003. We use the share of state ownership as a proxy for the severity of the soft budget constraint. We find strong evidence that firms with larger shares of state ownership exhibit lower investment-cash flow sensitivities than firms with smaller shares of state ownership.     

The Effect of Labor's Bargaining Power on Wealth Inequality in the UK,USA, And France

This paper analyses the determinants of wealth inequality, measured as the share of wealth owned by the top 1 percent wealthiest individuals. We find that labor's bargaining power is a significant and important determinant of top wealth shares. Using a semi-structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for the period 1970–2019, we estimate that shocks to labor's bargaining power explain 32 percent, 8 percent and 32 percent of the variation around the long-term trend in wealth inequality in the UK, USA and France, respectively.     

Disentangling managerial incentives from a dynamic perspective: The role of stock grants

We analyse the optimal contract between a risk‐averse manager and the initial shareholders in a two‐period model where the manager's investment effort, carried out in period 1, and his or her current effort, carried out in period 2, both impact the second‐period profit, so that it may be difficult to disentangle the incentives for these two types of effort. We show that stock grants play different roles according to whether the signal of investment effort is less noisy, or noisier, than that of current effort. We determine simultaneously the optimal stock grants and the optimal restrictions on sales of shares.     

Relative Demand for Skills in Swedish Manufacturing: Technology or Trade?

The rate of change in the share of skilled labor has increased steadily over the past 35 years in Swedish manufacturing. A closer inspection of the period after 1970 indicates that, while relative supply changes of skilled labor seem to have been the main driving force behind the growing skill shares in manufacturing industries over the period 1970–85, an acceleration in the relative demand for skills appears to have propelled higher skill shares during the late 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s. Consistent with such a development is the finding of an increasing degree of complementarity between knowledge capital and skilled labor, and that Swedish manufacturing firms, in recent years, have invested heavily in R&D. There is also some support for the belief that intensified competition from the South has increased the relative demand for skilled labor. However, the impact appears to be small and essentially driven by the textile industry.