A neighborhood-level view of riots, property values, and population loss: Cleveland 1950-1980

We undertake a case study of riots in the context of Cleveland’s economic decline between 1950 and 1980. Our empirical perspective emphasizes differential changes in property values and population levels across census tracts depending on their proximity to the riots’ epicenter. We find patterns that are consistent with concentrated, negative, and long-lasting effects from the 1960s riots. The negative relationship between riots and property value trends is not merely a reflection of the pre-existing trend in value, the pre-riot racial composition of the neighborhoods, the pre-riot proportion of neighborhood residents holding manufacturing jobs, the neighborhood crime rate, nor changes in the observable characteristics of the housing stock. We suggest that the impact of the riots was compounded by long-run forces that were already eroding Cleveland’s economic base.     

A simple American option pricing model

Binomial tree model was published in 1979, but it is impossible for hands to value American options with the model, and the result is imprecise. Using properties of continuous-time Martingale and Ito＇s theorem, the paper advances a concise model for valuing American option. The model is more simple and reliable than binomial tree model.     

A simultaneous probit model of crime and employment for black and white teenage males

This study examines the relationships between the employability and criminality of white and black male teenagers. A disequilibrium model of employment and crime is formulated and estimated as a simultaneous probit equation system. Our results show that black teenagers who are employed engage in fewer criminal activities. Thus, it appears that blacks view employment and crime as alternative income-generating activities. On the other hand, the criminal behavior of white male teenagers is unaffected by their employment status. The evidence that we provide indicates that whites tend to use employment as a cover for crime or to moonlight in crime. The differences in the behaviors of whites and blacks can be explained, in part, by different legitimate opportunity structures for whites and blacks. One of the more important policy implications is that job opportunities targeted to high risk, black teenage populations will have the additional beneficial effect of reducing crime rates.     

A simple model of the theory of money prices

Conclusion The goal of this paper is not to present a comprehensive restatement of the theory of money prices as it developed in the Austrian tradition from Menger to Mises and Rothbard. Rather it is to formulate a heuristic device that facilitates a concise delineation of the theory’s main points and helps in illustrating a few of its major implications. This endeavor is crucial to disseminating the theory to a broader audience and stimulating further interest in refining and advancing it. editor of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics     

Education and growth: A simple model with complicated dynamics

We construct a simple model of education and growth in which children spend a fraction of their time and parents spend a fraction of their income on education. Both a strategic complementarity and an intergenerational externality are present. The interactions between each pair of consecutive generations lead to rich dynamics. We show that multiple growth equilibria arise, some of them periodic and some aperiodic. We also find a negative correlation between volatility and growth, without a one‐way causal relationship between the two being, necessarily, present. Rather, this negative correlation is driven by the structural characteristics of the economy.     

A simple Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment under rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Ein einfaches keynesianisches Modell der Inflation und der Arbeitslosigkeit bei rationalen Erwartungen. — Dieser Aufsatz entwickelt ein einfaches makro?konomisches Modell keynesianischer Struktur, in dem eine lang-same Anpassung der Nominall?hne das gleichzeitige Bestehen von Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit zul?βt. Die Preise der Fertigwaren sind vollst?ndig flexibel, und die Erwartungen hinsichtlich der zukünftigen Preisbewegungen werden rational ge-bildet, so daβ sie alle Informationen über institutionelle Beschr?nkungen des Arbeits-marktes und über die w?hrungs- und fiskalpolitischen Regeln der Regierung ent-halten. Es wird gezeigt, daβ es trotz kurzfristiger Starrheit der L?hne m?glich ist, die Volkswirtschaft sofort bei Zielgr?βen für Inflation und Besch?ftigung zu stabili-sieren, wenn man die Maβnahmen so kombiniert, wie R. Mundell (1971) vorgeschla-gen hat, d.h. die Rate der monet?ren Expansion sollte sich nach der angestrebten Inflationsrate richten und die Fiskalpolitik dem Besch?ftigungsziel dienen.

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Résumé Un simple modèle Keynesien d’inflation et de ch?mage sous des expectatives rationelles. — Ce papier développe un simple modèle macroéconomique de la structure Keynesienne où l’ajustement lent des rémunérations nominales permet la coexistence de l’inflation et du ch?mage. Les prix des biens finaux sont complètement flexibles et les expectatives concernant les mouvements futurs des prix sont formées rationellement en manière qu’elles incorporent toutes les informations regardant les restrictions institutionelles sur le marché du travail aussi bien que les règles de la politique monétaire et fiscale du gouvernement. Nous démontrons que, malgré de la rigidité salariale à court terme il est possible de stabiliser immédiatement l’économie sur le niveau des buts d’inflation et de ch?mage supposé que la combinaison des politiques recommandée par R. Mundell ({dy1971}) soit pour-suivie, c’est-à-dire que le taux de l’expansión monétaire devrait être lié au but d’inflation et la politique fiscale au but de ch?mage.

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Resumen Un modelo keynesiano simple de inflación y desempleo bajo expec-tativas racionales. — En este artículo se desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico simple de una estrutura keynesiana, donde un ajuste lento de los salarios nominales permite la coexistencia de inflación y desempleo. Los precios de los bienes finales son completamente flexibles y las expectativas referentes a movimientos futuros de precios se forman racionalmente, de tal manera que ellas incorporan toda la información referente a limitaciones institucionales en el mercado del trabajo, como también las reglas gubernamentales de las políticas monetaria y fiscal. Se muestra, que a pesar de la rigidez de corto plazo de los salarios, es posible estabilizar instan-tàneamente la economia a niveles establecidos como metas para la inflación y el desempleo, siempre que se aplique la mezcla de politicas recomendada por R. Mundell (1971), p.ej.: la tasa de expansión monetaria debe ser ajustada a la tasa de inflación asignada como meta y la política fiscal a la tasa de desempleo asignada como meta.

     

A formulation and test of a simple model of world bank behavior

Zusammenfassung Formulierung und Test eines einfachen Modells für das Verhalten der Weltbank. -Um das Verhalten der Weltbank zu analysieren, wird ein einfacher theoretischer Ansatz entwickelt, indem angenommen wird, da? die Weltbank wie eine einzige Person ihren Nutzen maximiert. Die Argumente der Nutzenfunktion sind die Summe der Kredite an die Empf?ngerl?nder, die Einkommen dieser L?nder und der gesamte erwartete Zahlungsausfall beim Schuldendienst. Die Beschr?nkung der Funktion liegt im Gesamtbudget der Bank. Auf dieser Grundlage werden mehrere Hypothesen bezüglich der Kreditpolitik der Weltbank abgeleitet und getestet. Es zeigt sich, da? das Einkommen und Ausfallrisiko zu 37–40 vH die Varianz der Weltbankdarlehen, die 1981 und 1982 gew?hrt worden sind, erkl?ren k?nnen.

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Résumé Une formulation et teste d'un simple modèle du comportement de la Banque Mondiale. -Les auteurs présentent un simple cadre théorique pour analyser le comportement de la Banque Mondiale en utilisant une approche d'acteur-unifié qui maximise son utilité. Les arguments de la fonction d'utilité sont les montants des crédits accordés aux pays destinataires, le revenue de ces pays et la suspension de paiements totale attendue. La contrainte de la fonction est le budget total de la Banque. Les auteurs dérivent et testent plusieurs hypothèses regardant les crédits accordés aux pays développants. Ils démontrent que le revenue et la risque des créances douteuses peuvent expliquer 37–40 pourcent de la variance des crédits de la Banque Mondiale accordés en 1981-1982.

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Resumen Formulatión y test de un modelo simple del comportamiento del Banco Mundial. -En este trabajo se presenta un marco teórico simple para analizar el comportamiento del Banco Mundial, utilizando un modelo individual de maximización de utilidad. La función de utilidad contiene como argumentos el volumen de crédite otorgado a los países receptores, el ingreso de estes países, y el total esperado de crédites vencidos. El presupuesto total del banco constituye la única restrictión. Varias hipótesis sobre el otorgamiento de préstamos a países en desarrollo son derivadas y analizadas empíricamente. Se concluye que el ingreso y el riesgo de que un crédite venza pueden explicar del 37 al 40 por ciento de la varianza de los crédites otorgados en los a?os 1981 y 1982.

     

Cyclically oscillating product quality: A simple model of the product life cycle

This paper presents a dynamic model of the firm, where the firm can exert influence on demand by setting the price and by controlling the quality index. Assuming profit maximization, it is shown by means of the Hopf Bifurcation theorem that persistent oscillations of the variables may occur if there is positive growth at the steady state together with a high discount rate. Oscillations may also occur if the influence of an additional unit of the quality index on demand and price is sufficiently large, thus yielding a special version of the product life cycle. A numerical example is used in order to illustrate the results derived in the general framework. Valuable comments from an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Weather shocks,poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy

Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities’ resources, as well as temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven this relationship.     

Long waves,depression and innovation

Summary Schumpeter's (1939) proposition concerning long economic cycles which are given impetus by waves of radical innovations has been strongly criticized by Kuznets (1940). It is argued that in view of more recent research. Schumpeter's proposition appears to be highly realistic: First, there is evidence in recent history of a long wave pattern in indicators of general economic activity of various countries; secondly, innovation data on various definitions independently confirm that radical innovations are not distributed randomly over time but tend to cluster in the late depression and early upswing period of the long waves; thirdly, arguments are brought forward to explain the waves of innovations as an endogenous element of the long wave process.My research was supported by grants from the Dutch Ministry of Science Policy and by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.     

A simple macro model of Original Sin based on optimal price setting under incomplete information

This paper analyses the consequences of “original sin” (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot be used to borrow abroad) for macroeconomic stability. The approach is based on third-generation models of currency crises, but differs from alternative versions by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and there is incomplete information about the future exchange rate. It is shown that a small depreciation is beneficial, but a large one is detrimental.     

A simple multisector model with six sectors of production estimation and simulation results for the 1950–1968 period

Summary In this article a simple multisector model for the Netherlands is presented with six sectors of production. Estimation and simulation results are based on input-output data for the period 1950–1968. Simple log-linear equations (containing both relative price factors and scale factors) are used to describe the demand for (intermediary and primary) factors of production and the demand for final output (including private investment). Sectoral product prices and wage rates are determined within the model. This applies to the generation of disposable income of households as well. Using this simple multisector model, actual economic developments during the 1955–1968 period can be simulated in a reasonably satisfactory way.I am indebted to Professor S.K. Kuipers of the University of Groningen, Professor J. Muysken of the University of Limburg and an anonymous referee for their advice and their critical remarks. The Netherlands Organisation for the Advancement of Pure Scientific Research subsidized the multisector modelling project, of which this article summarizes the results (grant number 46–73).     

Valuing school quality, better transport, and lower crime: evidence from house prices

Housing prices within urban areas exhibit highly localized variationthat cannot be explained solely by differences in the physicalattributes of dwellings. We consider the role of local amenitiesand disamenities in generating price variation within urbanareas, focusing on three highly policy-relevant urban issues–transportaccessibility, school quality, and crime. Our survey of therecent empirical literature highlights what is known and whatis not known on these issues, and considers the relevance andreliability of this evidence for policy design and evaluation.Although there are serious empirical challenges, we argue thatresearch on housing values based on careful research designscan offer credible estimates of the social value of place-specificattributes and amenities.