Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.     

Health and the evolution of welfare across Brazilian municipalities

This paper describes the pattern of reductions in mortality across Brazilian municipalities between 1970 and 2000, and analyzes its causes and consequences. It shows that, as in the international context, the relationship between income and life expectancy has shifted consistently in the recent past. But reductions in mortality within Brazil have been more homogeneously distributed than across countries. We use a compensating differentials approach to estimate the value of the observed reductions in mortality. The results suggest that gains in life expectancy had a welfare value equivalent to 39% of the growth in income per capita, being therefore responsible for 28% of the overall improvement in welfare. We then use a dynamic panel to conduct a preliminary assessment of the potential determinants of these gains. We show that improvements in education, access to water, and sanitation seem to be important determinants of the dimension of changes in life expectancy not correlated with income.     

Health and the evolution of welfare across Brazilian municipalities

This paper describes the pattern of reductions in mortality across Brazilian municipalities between 1970 and 2000, and analyzes its causes and consequences. It shows that, as in the international context, the relationship between income and life expectancy has shifted consistently in the recent past. But reductions in mortality within Brazil have been more homogeneously distributed than across countries. We use a compensating differentials approach to estimate the value of the observed reductions in mortality. The results suggest that gains in life expectancy had a welfare value equivalent to 39% of the growth in income per capita, being therefore responsible for 28% of the overall improvement in welfare. We then use a dynamic panel to conduct a preliminary assessment of the potential determinants of these gains. We show that improvements in education, access to water, and sanitation seem to be important determinants of the dimension of changes in life expectancy not correlated with income.     

Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

The effect of health improvements due to tobacco control on earnings in the United States

There is minimal evidence causally estimating the relationship between tobacco tax policy, population health and earnings. This article uses state tobacco taxes as an instrument for life expectancy to estimate the effect on earnings per capita in a panel of almost 3000 counties in the United States over the period 1970 to 2000. In the first stage of the model, we find that a one dollar increase in state tobacco taxes significantly increases life expectancy between 1.9% and 2.1%. Despite showing that tobacco tax is correlated with higher life expectancy and that, theoretically, improvements in health from reductions in smoking should lead to increased earnings, we find an insignificant impact of the induced gains in life expectancy from tobacco policy on county level earnings per capita over the period 1970 to 2000. The lack of significance is explained through local average treatment effects and the smaller economic impact of certain policies that impact health later in life. These results provide further evidence that the most effective interventions for improving income later in life are policy interventions with a direct impact on the health of younger cohorts rather than older cohorts.     

Spatial and economic patterns in life expectancy among US States

This study investigates the determinants of gender-specific life expectancy across US states over the period 1995–2007. We employ a production function specification where life expectancy depends on health expenditure, income, education and lifestyle variables, allowing for spatial effects. Empirical results suggest that education attainment and health expenditure are the main factors behind improving longevity, whereas smoking bears a strong negative influence. For robustness purposes, we also use health spending as well as education criteria, apart from geographical ones to model interstate spillovers. In the former case, states with similar health expenditure are ‘neighbors’ and affect positively the life expectancy process. If education is applied instead of health spending together with geographic proximity, the spatial correlation is insignificant, i.e. education ‘neighbors’ do not affect life expectancy. Our findings do not imply significant gender differences regarding health production. The results suggest that health care policy will have to focus on wider economic and social considerations, like education and lifestyle changes, except medical care provision in order to exploit the full potential for life expectancy improvements of the US population.     

Life expectancy, human capital, social security and growth

We analyze the effects of changes in the mortality rate upon life expectancy, education, retirement age, human capital and growth in the presence of social security. We build a vintage growth, overlapping generations model in which individuals choose the length of education and the age of retirement, and where unfunded social security pensions depend on workers' past contributions. Social security has a positive effect on education, but pension benefits favor reductions in retirement age. The net effect is that starting from a benchmark case, higher life expectancies give rise to lower per capita GDP growth in the presence of social security as the share of the active population is reduced. In addition, higher social security contribution rates reduce the growth rate of per capita GDP.     

二十世纪中国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的两次显著变化

利用我国1930—2000年不同时期的生命表资料,分析了20世纪30年代以来我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的变化,探讨了我国生殖健康政策在变化中的作用。20世纪我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险有两次显著变化。第一次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险处在较高水平上发生的。在上个世纪50年代之前,育龄女性的死亡风险高于育龄男性,到50年代育龄女性死亡风险从高于育龄男性向低于育龄男性转变。第二次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险已下降到一个相对较低的水平上发生的。从上个世纪70年代开始到上个世纪末,育龄女性死亡风险的下降速度显著高于育龄男性,随着时间的推移育龄人群死亡水平的性别差异呈现扩大趋势。     

The increase in death and disease under "katstroika"

The author describes recent trends in mortality and morbidity in the successor states to the former Soviet Union. Separate consideration is given to mortality under late perestroika (1987-1991) and subsequent mortality trends. The author concludes that "the collapse of the USSR and the problems of the successor states have had severe adverse affects not only on macroeconomic indices but also on the mortality and morbidity of the population.... Since the collapse of the USSR, the mortality situation in the successor states has rapidly and significantly worsened. Between 1991 and 1993 the crude death rate in Russia rose by 26%. As a result, by 1993 the life expectancy at birth of Russian men had fallen to about 59, which is about 6 years below the level of 1987.... By 1993, male life expectancy at birth in Russia had fallen below the level of the medium income countries and had probably fallen to a level about that of Indonesia in the second half of the 1980s. Ukraine has also experienced an increase in mortality since the collapse of the USSR. In other successor states, experiencing serious military conflicts, such as Tadjikstan and Armenia, the proportionate increase in mortality was even larger than in Russia."     

Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects

"In this paper, [the authors] examine the effects of likely demographic changes on medical spending for the elderly. Standard forecasts highlight the potential for greater life expectancy to increase costs: medical costs generally increase with age, and greater life expectancy means that more of the elderly will be in the older age groups. Two factors work in the other direction, however. First, increases in life expectancy mean that a smaller share of the elderly will be in the last year of life, when medical costs generally are very high.... Second, disability rates among the surviving population have been declining in recent years by 0.5 to 1.5 percent annually.... Thus, changes in disability and mortality should, on net, reduce average medical spending on the elderly. However, these effects are not as large as the projected increase in medical spending stemming from increases in overall medical costs."     

The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

We study the consequences of later marriage on subsequent life outcomes. China’s family planning policies in the early 1970s – before the One-Child Policy – regulated not only childbirth but also marriage. The recommended minimum marriage age of 25 years for men and 23 years for women was effectively relaxed when the government formally introduced the One-Child Policy and put greater emphasis on directly controlling fertility rather than marriage. Subsequently, we find that the marriage age, which had been increasing steadily since 1970, suddenly started to decline in the early 1980s. This policy shift provides us with an opportunity to apply a regression probability jump and kink design for the purpose of identification. Using data from the 2000 census, we establish that later-married men have fewer children and that later-married women are more likely to participate in the labor market. We find no consistent evidence that later marriage improves education, probably because most Chinese people marry after completing their education.     

使用人类发展指数对中国城乡差距的一种估计

本文在收集整理反映我国城乡收入、教育和出生时预期寿命差别数据的基础上 ,利用UNDP的人类发展指数法计算了按城乡分的收入指数、教育指数和出生时预期寿命指数 ,并进一步构建了按城乡分的人类发展指数。基本结论是 ,自 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,城乡收入差距始终是最大的 ,而且呈现出整体扩大的趋势 ;城乡教育差距要小于收入的差距 ,城乡教育上的差距呈现出整体缩小的趋势 ,差距扩大主要表现在义务教育以后的阶段 ;城乡人口出生时预期寿命指数间的差距始终是最小的 ,然而这个差距却在扩大。     

Women's education and economic well-being

Evidence across regions in the world reveals patterns in school enrollment ratios and literacy that are divided along gender lines. In the developing world, apart from most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, enrollment ratios of girls lag behind those for boys at all levels of education. Worldwide literacy rates for adult men far exceed those for women. While educational progress has been enjoyed by both sexes, these advances have failed to eradicate the gender gap. Education enhances labor market productivity and income growth for all, yet educating women has beneficial effects on social well-being not always measured by the market. Rising levels of education improve women's productivity in the home which in turn can increase family health, child survival, and the investment in children's human capital. The social benefits from women's education range from fostering economic growth to extending the average life expectancy in the population, to improving the functioning of political processes. This paper reviews recent empirical research that analyzes the benefits of women's education, describes the importance of women's education for country-level measures of economic development, and examines the implications of a gender gap in education for aggregate social well-being.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.     

The role of public health in the reproduction of labor resources

The decline in mortality that occurred in the USSR up to 1960 is first described. The reasons why this decline has not continued in recent years and why mortality has even increased in certain age groups are then considered. The solution to the problem of increasing mortality is sought in an improvement in Soviet health services in order to increase life expectancy in general and the length of economically active life in particular.     

50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging

Workers in the US and other developed countries retire no later than a century ago and spend a significantly longer part of their life in school, implying that they stay less years in the work force. The facts of longer schooling and simultaneously shorter working life are seemingly hard to square with the rationality of the standard economic life cycle model. In this paper we propose a novel theory, based on health and aging, that explains these long-run trends. Workers optimally respond to a longer stay in a healthy state of high productivity by obtaining more education and supplying less labor. Better health increases productivity and amplifies the return on education. The health accelerator allows workers to finance educational efforts with less forgone labor supply than in the previous state of shorter healthy life expectancy. When both life-span and healthy life expectancy increase, the health effect is dominating and the working life gets shorter if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure is sufficiently small or the return on education is sufficiently large. We calibrate the model and show that it is able to predict the historical trends of schooling and retirement.     

Existence and stability of overconsumption equilibria

Growth models with endogenous mortality assume generally that life expectancy is increasing with output per capita and, thus, with individual consumption, whatever its level is. However, empirical evidence supports a U-shaped relationship between consumption and mortality, implying that the monotonicity of that relation is local but not global. This paper develops a two-period OLG model where life expectancy is a non-monotone function of consumption, and where agents form myopic anticipations about life expectancy. The existence, uniqueness and stability of steady-state equilibria are studied. It is shown that overconsumption equilibria — i.e. equilibria at which consumption exceeds the level maximizing life expectancy — exist in highly productive economies with a low impatience. We identify also conditions under which there exist long-run cycles in output and longevity around overconsumption equilibria.     

Examining the long-term mortality effects of early health shocks

A growing literature in economics and other disciplines has tied exposure to early health shocks, particularly in utero influenza, to reductions in a variety of socioeconomic and health outcomes over the life course. However, less evidence exists that examines this health shock on mortality because of lack of available data. This paper uses recently released restricted-access files from the large, representative National Longitudinal Mortality Study in the United States to explore the mortality effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic for those in utero. While the results on socioeconomic outcomes mimic those in the literature, showing reductions in completed schooling and income fifty years following influenza exposure, the findings also suggest no effect on overall mortality or by categories of cause-of-death. These results are unexpected in their contrast with the many reported effects of in utero insults on later cardiovascular health as well as the literature linking education with later mortality.     

Years of life lost to revolution and war in Iran

How was life expectancy in Iran affected by the Islamic Revolution and subsequent war with Iraq? This study examines the joint effect of regime change and the war against Iraq on life expectancy in Iran between 1978 and 1988. If there had been no revolution and war in Iran, how would the life expectancy of Iranians have developed? To answer this question, we use a synthetic control model to construct a counterfactual Iran based on a weighted average of other comparable countries, which reproduces the situation of pre-revolution Iran but does not experience the revolution and war. We then compare the life expectancies of the counterfactual and actual Iran that underwent a regime change and war with Iraq. Our results indicate that an average Iranian's total life expectancy would have been approximately five years longer without the revolution and war. The revolution had a moderate long-term impact on total life expectancy at birth, with the most significant influence being attributed to the war itself, particularly on male life expectancy. Our main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. We investigate possible reasons that may explain the impact on longevity.     

The non-linear effects of life expectancy on economic growth

This paper shows that improvements in life expectancy (LE) had a non-linear effect on income per capita over the 1940-1980 period as this effect was conditional on each country’s initial level of LE. Whereas higher LE had an initial statistically significant negative impact on income per capita in countries with LE under 43 years in 1940, the opposite is true in countries with initial LE over 53 years.