The theory of monetary integration

Research dealing with the theory of monetary integration is reviewed. After briefly describing the genesis of the theory as foreshadowed in work on optimum currency areas, the paper assesses two main areas of recent research — the analysis of the effects of disturbances on participating countries in a currency area, and reputational considerations. With regard to disturbances, the paper finds that it is difficult to draw clear-out inferences from theoretical work on the optimal degree of exchange rate management and from empirical studies on the effects of shocks. Work on reputational issues is found to suffer from conceptual problems and has generated empirical results that have not supported the hypothesis that participation in a currency area is a sufficient condition to enhance reputation.     

Keynes' monetary theory and bank reserves in Britain

Conclusions The key institutional peculiarity of Britain that caused the economics of Keynes is that bank reserves on all types of deposits were traditionally the same. This meant that decisions of savers and speculators to increase holdings of Savings-deposits (which are the alternative to securities) did not increase bank lending ability. The key mechanism of flexible interest rates was disabled, and arbitrage between different types of investments caused the fixing of the bank rate and the deposit rate to be transmitted to all short-term rates, and with inelastic expectations, to long rates. Higher interest rates increase the quantity of the medium of exchange in circulation. The quantity of the medium of exchange is endogenous in Keynes' system. Such interest-rate raising events as decreased savings, an increase in the marginal efficiency of capital, and deficit financing all increase the quantity of the medium of exchange in circulation. The monetarist distinction between deficit financing by money creation and debt is not meaningful in Britain where all deficit financing expands the money supply.     

弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论探析

本文对弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论进行了研究,主要内容包含弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论,弗里德曼对货币中性与非中性的实证检验,弗里德曼基于货币中性与非中性理论的政策等内容。     

IS-LM: The Hicksian journey

Summary In the economics profession John Hicks is mainly known for his work during the 1930s. This paper is aimed at tracing the further development of Hicks' thinking, focussing on his IS-LM apparatus. During the 1950s Hicks used IS-LM to elucidate several issues, as in his Trade Cycle book and his review of Don Patinkin's Money, Interest and Prices. In the ensuing exchange Patinkin showed several weaknesses of IS-LM and pointed to new directions for research: the development of more elaborate models of the transmission mechanism and disequilibrium theory. But Hicks did not really participate in these developments, since, owing to methodological considerations, his thinking diverged more and more from mainstream economics.I would like to thank Jürgen Backhaus, Peter de Gijsel, Jan Snippe, Vic Van Rompuy, Arjen van Witteloostuijn and an anonymous referee for their comments on a former draft. Naturally, only the author is responsible for the opinions here expressed, as well as for any remaining shortcomings.     

Monetary theory and monetary policy a central banker's view

Summary In this article attention is paid to monetary theory, the relationship between the instruments of monetary policy and other important macro-economic policy instruments, and finally to the real possibilities of pursuing an effective monetary policy. The conclusion from the theoretical analysis is that the total money supply must be considered one of the most important macro-economic policy instruments. An excessive supply of money will sooner or later lead to inflation, to the debasement of money. Therefore the volume of money should be controlled. The use and effectiveness of monetary policy should always be seen in the context of other policy instruments, especially fiscal policy and, under circumstances, wage- and price policy. The possibilities to pursue an effective monetary policy are not unlimited. The effectiveness of such a policy can,e.g., be hampered by external factors. It is vital for a central bank to have the widest possible range of instruments at its disposal.     

The “monetarist revolution” in monetary theory

Zusammenfassung Die ?monetaristische Revolution? in der Geldtheorie. — Vier Hauptgedanken konstituieren die monetaristische Hypothese: (a) die preistheoretische Erkl?rung des Transmissionsmechanismus, (b) die dynamische Stabilit?t des privaten Sektors, (c) das Vorherrschen der monet?ren Impulse im Bereich der Impulsfaktoren und (d) eine ungef?hre Trennung zwischen Bestimmungsgr?\en mit allokativen und aggregativen Auswirkungen. Diese Konzeption beeinflu\t entscheidend die Beurteilung des geldund finanzpolitischen Instrumentariums. Vor allem verschwindet die zentrale Rolle der Finanzpolitik. Es verschwindet auch die Rechtfertigung für prononcierte Variationen der Geldpolitik. Es erweist sich auch, da\ angelaufene inflatorische Prozesse nur sehr allm?hlich oder nur mit sehr hohen Sozialkosten beendet werden k?nnen. Eine rasche Beendigung von inflatorischen Prozessen wird im allgemeinen hohe Sozialkosten erfordern. Versuche zur raschen Beendigung sind deshalb mit gro\er Wahrscheinlichkeit zum Scheitern verurteilt.

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Résumé La révolution monétariste dans la théorie de l’argent. —Quatre propositions cardinales constituent l’hypothèse monétariste: a. l’explication du mécanisme de transmission au moyen de la théorie du prix, b. la stabilité dynamique du secteur privé, c. la dominance parmi les forces impulsives des impulsions monétaires, d. une séparation approximative des quantités déterminantes aux effets allocatifs de celles aux effets agrégatifs. Cette conception est d’une importance décisive dès qu’on veut juger des instruments de politique monétaire et financière. Surtout n’existe plus le r?le central de la politique financière. De même, n’existe plus de justification pour des variations prononcées de politique monétaire. Il appara?t en outre qu’un processus inflationniste une fois commencé ne peut être arrêté que très graduellement, ou bien avec des co?ts sociaux très élevés. Pour arrêter vite un tel processus il faudra en général des co?ts sociaux élevés. Il est donc extrêmement probable que tout effort de couper court à ces processus ne réussira pas.

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Resumen La ?revolution monetarista? en la teoria monetaria. —Cuatro son los pilares de la hipótesis monetarista, a saber: (a) la explicatión en conceptos de la teoría de precios del mecanismo de transmisión; (b) la estabilidad dinámica del sector privado; (c) la preponderancia de los impulsos monetarios en una economía dinámica; (d) una identificación aproximada de las variables déterminantes con efectos alocativos y agregativos. Este concepto influye de una manera tajante en la apreciaci?n del instrumentario monetario y fiscal. Más que nada, desaparece el papel central desempe∼nado por la politica fiscal. Y desaparece también la justificación para alteraciones pronunciadas en la polftica monetaria. Queda evidenciado que con un proceso de inflaci?n prolongado puede acabarse o bien paulatinamente o bien adoptando un procedimiento drástico que sin embargo entra∼naría un costo económico y social muy elevado. Debido a ello, cabe esperar que todo intento de poner fin rápidamente a la inflaci?n fracasará.

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Riassunto La ?rivoluzione monetaria? nella teoria délia moneta. —Quattro idee principali costituiscono l’ipotesi monetaria: a) la spiegazione teorica dei prezzi del meccanismo di trasmissione, b) la stabilità dinamica del settore privato, c) il predominare degli impulsi monetari nell’ambito dei fattori d’impulso e d) una separazione approssimativa tra grandezze determinant con ripercussioni allocative e aggregative. Questa concezione influenza decisamente il giudizio dell’istrumentario monetario e politico finanziario. Soprattutto scompare il ruolo centrale délia politica finanziaria. Scompare anche la giustificazione per variazioni pronunciate delia politica monetaria. Risulta anche ehe ad avviati processi inflazionistici può essere posto termine soltanto assai gradualmente o solamente con altissimi costi sociali. Una rapida fine di processi inflazionistici richiederà in générale alti costi sociali. Tentativi per la rapida fine sono condannati perciò con grande probabilità all’insuccesso.

     

Unresolved questions in monetary theory: A critical review

Summary The basic questions of monetary theory remain unanswered. There is little agreement on a definition of money or what assets serve as money, much less on the nature of the private and social costs and benefits of a money economy. Controversy over these questions is reviewed critically. It is concluded that the extensive literature on these matters is not in fact very illuminating. Some new avenues of enquiry are suggested. Generalisation of Clower's exchange matrix suggests that money is only one of a hierarchy of budget restraints, and that money's contribution to efficient price-setting goes beyond its role as numeraire. Finally, questions of control of the money supply are considered.She wishes to thank the participants in the Economic Anthropology Seminar on Means of Payment at University College London for their comments and suggestions, especially Mary Douglas (UCL), Gerald Cohen (UCL), Morris Perlman (LSE) and Charles Goodhart (Bank of England). The comments of Yoram Barzel (University of Washington), Thomas Rymes (Carleton University), and members of the Money Study Group are also gratefully acknowledged. Resposibility for the outcome is entirely the author's.     

Open economy measures of wealth and Hicksian national income

This paper argues that a total approach to macroeconomic stock estimation is necessary when assessing the overall significance of a nation's foreign debt level. In an increasingly integrated global economy, changes in national wealth—the difference between the value of internationally tradable assets and external liabilities—not only help gauge creditworthiness, but may be used to complement the traditional flow measures of gross national product and national income. Moreover, following Hicks (1946), changes in open economy measures of wealth yield a new measure of national income. Prototypical estimates of wealth and Hicksian income are presented for Australia by way of example.     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

Purchasing power parity theory and the monetary approach to the balance of payments

Summary In this article the monetary approach to the balance of payments is discussed as a theory and as a guide to balance of payments policy. It is argued that the monetary approach to the balance of payments is strongly connected with the assumption of complete arbitrage in commodities and financial assets. Recent research leads to the conclusion that no such complete arbitrage generally exist. Therefore, the monetary approach gives only an incomplete theory of the balance of payments. The other existing theories have to be used also, especially as guides to balance of payments policies.He is grateful to Dr. W.J.B. Smits and P.H. Hilbers for their helpful comments.     

从货币供给理论看我国当前货币政策的有效性

文章回顾了西方货币供给理论,结合我国当前宏观经济及货币信贷投放情况的新特点,指出货币供给内生性不断增强的趋势,并提出进一步发挥货币政策效用的对策。     

Relevance of recent developments in monetary theory for developing economies: A sceptical note

Recent contributions to the theory of money claim derivation from Keynes' General Theory, but come to conclusions different from the latter. This paper analyses how their claim to Keynesian lineage is wrong in substance, for the essence of the Keynesian contribution on money lies in the special position which money occupies vis-à-vis goods, and the uncertainty elements in the functioning of a money economy. It then analyses how equilibrium analysis (which Keynes sought to unseat), has reasserted itself, due partly to the neoclassical methodology of analysis through comparative statics and the concept of thriftiness cast in personal rather than corporate terms.Following on from this, this paper refers to the great deficiency of the Keynesian approach as being reliance on analysis confined to the level of the market and inadequately linked with the institutional features of the capitalist system, which the Kaleckian version of the General Theory of Employment emphasizes. This aspect is then used by the author to analyse the political economy of a developing economy.     

Uncertainty and monetary policy

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environmenthas encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty,that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particulardifficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept inorder to yield definitive policy recommendations. If this typeof uncertainty is unquantifiable, then a policy rule determinedby a single model may not in fact be the best approach; pluralismof method and the exercise of judgement offer a potential solution.A rigorous foundation for such an approach is available in Keynes'sphilosophical analysis of decision making under uncertainty.It is concluded that more analytical attention needs to be devotedto agents’ own model uncertainty, and to judgement. Butultimately the scope for synthesis between the model uncertaintyand Keynes uncertainty approaches rests on whether or not thesubject matter is such that knowledge of it is best representedby one formal model.     

Market discipline and monetary policy

The effects of forward looking expectations of future inflationon equilibrium inflation and interest rates are examined withinan imperfect information framework. Expectations of future inflationaffect equilibrium in a manner similar to an increase in thecentral bank's weight on future social welfare, making it morelikely an opportunistic central bank will actually deliver onits announced inflation targets, and output expansions can ariseeven if the central banker is revealed to be a low inflationtype. The model also illustrates the channels through whichinflation scares raise current real interest rates.     

Bank competition and monetary policy

There is an apparent theoretical discrepancy between the effects of monetary policy shocks on economies with differently competitive banking sectors. We employ cross-country data to investigate this hypothesis with two different approaches. First, using aggregate data we analyze the correlation between two indices: (i) a cumulative impulse response function providing an index of the effect of monetary policy shocks; and (ii) Panzar and Rosse's H-statistic as an index of the state of bank competition. Second, using disaggregated data we regress bank lending on the interaction of bank competition and monetary policy shocks. The first approach does not provide any evidence of a relationship between monetary policy shocks and bank competition. However, the second approach suggests that competition in the banking industry leads to smaller monetary policy effects on bank lending.