中加菜籽油期货市场波动溢出实证研究

利用误差修正模型、BEKK-GARCH模型和格兰杰因果关系实证研究了加拿大和中国菜籽油期货市场之间的信息传导、波动溢出和价格引导关系。实证结果显示：这两个市场之间存在一定的信息传导关系;加拿大菜籽油期货市场对中国菜籽油期货市场存在显著的波动溢出效应,而中国菜籽油期货市场对加拿大菜籽油期货市场的波动溢出不显著;短期内加拿大菜籽油期货市场对中国菜籽油期货市场的价格引导作用更强些,这与加拿大菜籽油期货市场是全球菜籽油定价中心的实际相吻合,而中国菜籽油期货市场的竞争力有待进一步提升。     

Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China

The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen's cointegration approach for three different cash markets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from 1 week to 4 months. The results suggest a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by over-speculation and government intervention.     

Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study

Futures markets, where they exist, can play a crucial role in determining the storage decision in the underlying spot (physical) market. The futures market acts as a conduit for market information and is a gatherer of agents' expectations about the future prospects for the spot market. As such, it is able to provide both price insurance and price discovery roles, the latter of which generates information for spot market traders and allows them to make rational storage decisions. If this were to be the case, then the efficiency of storage is improved which can potentially lead to a reduction in the volatility of spot prices over the marketing season. The existing literature is ambiguous as to whether futures markets can help spot markets price more efficiently. This paper seeks to examine whether this is the case in the British maincrop potato market by evaluating the volatility of spot prices over the period 1969–96 in a “before-after” analysis of the impact of the introduction of futures trading in 1980. The results suggest that the introduction of the futures market has led to a reduction in price volatility, despite some problems in the operation of the futures market itself.     

New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets

Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features that differ from those of traditional commodity futures. This makes them an effective and efficient tool for managing price risk. The implications of these findings will be illustrated for milk quotas in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands. Prior conditions which might make a futures market for milk quotas successful in both countries will be deduced.     

Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants.     

ON THE HIDDEN REVENUE EFFECTS OF WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA: INITIAL RESULTS

A preliminary analysis of demand in eight major OECD wool-consuming countries is used to provide up-to-date estimates of price elasticities of demand for wool. Those elasticities are employed to calculate ex ante market prices, assuming no wool price stabilisation in Australia. The computed ex ante prices are used in a dynamic simulation to estimate demand and, hence, revenue from wool sales to the eight countries in the absence of reserve price operations in Australia. Based on the preferred semi-log demand curve, the variability of wool prices is estimated to have been reduced by 44 per cent, due to Australian intervention in the market up to 1977/78. However, price stabilisation is estimated to have lowered the revenue from Australian wool sales to the eight countries by S139m, or by 2 per cent, in the period up to 1977/78.     

Causality and Efficiency in the Coffee Futures Market

Tests for causality and rationality in the coffee futures market were carried out using data from the New York Market. Tests of causality indicated that futures prices strongly influence variations in spot price eight weeks or more to maturity. However, beginning seven weeks to maturity there seems to be a strong causal relationship going from futures to spot and from spot to futures. Risk constancy or neutrality, equality of risk premium and spot price, and efficiency were rejected for the period 18, 51, and 33 weeks or more to maturity. However, simultaneity of risk neutrality and efficiency was accepted for contracts with 55-77 weeks to maturity. The general conclusion from this study is that coffee futures market can be used as an indicator of spot market prices for contracts with 55-77 weeks to maturity. While benefits can be obtained through short term adjustment of available stock and making use of quality storage facilities, planning longer term planting and marketing decisions (e.g., ≥ 77 weeks) on the basis of futures market price can result in misallocation of resources and welfare loss.     

中国农产品期货市场功能发挥的现货市场条件探讨

本文在对期货市场功能发挥和现货市场关系探讨的基础上，从期货市场发现价格和回避风险功能角度，指出农产品期货市场功能发挥所需具备的现货市场条件是：现货市场发达完善和接近完全竞争；进而实证分析影响中国农产品期货市场功能发挥的现货市场条件的因素。主要结论是中国农产品期货市场是在现货市场发育还不充分的情况下产生并发展起来的，不完善的现货市场争件是影响和制约农产品期货市场功能充分发挥的关键因素。     

价格支持、政策调整及粮食市场波动

目的 为了估计价格支持政策对不同粮食品种期现货价格波动的直接影响,实证分析和比较了政策及其调整对粮食期现货价格波动实施效果的影响,为深化粮食价格形成机制改革提供一定的理论参考和实证支撑。方法 文章利用稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆的现货与期货价格日数据,将政策以虚拟变量的形式引入GARCH模型实证分析最低收购价政策、临时收储政策及其调整对平抑粮食期现货市场波动的作用。结果 价格支持政策对粮食价格波动产生了显著影响,最低收购价政策能够明显降低稻谷和小麦现货市场的波动程度,但对期货市场波动的作用则相反;玉米和大豆临时收储政策的取消导致现货市场波动性提高,而对期货市场波动的影响存在差异。结论 价格支持政策具有降低价格波动的作用效果,政策调控效果与实施品种的国内供求及市场形势、国内外市场的联系程度密切相关,政策的完善还需关注对期货市场波动的影响。     

发展水产品期货市场的几点思考

目前我国还尚未建立水产品期货市场,水产企业及渔民缺乏从事期货交易的环境和经营机制。我国水产品市场具有建立期货市场的内在需求,同时也具备开展期货市场交易的条件。因此,为促进水产市场的稳定发展,健全水产市场体系,完善水产品价格机制,我国有必要培育和发展水产期货市场。本文还提出了完善水产品现货市场、培育期货市场套期保值交易主体、建立健全期货市场监督管理机制等进一步促进水产品期货市场发展的措施建议。     

Information-rich wheat markets in the early days of COVID-19

This paper uses the information implicit in commodity futures and options prices to infer market beliefs about the impact of early-stages COVID-19 on commodity market fundamentals. The particular commodity examined is soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and the timeframe is early February to late March 2020. The analysis highlights various adjustments in the cash and futures price of SRW wheat in light of surging short-run demand from consumer hoarding of staple food products, and a weakening long-run market from growing wheat stocks and an emerging global recession. This split is causing the forward curve to flatten and basis levels to invert. The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts. Similarly, changes in the skewness of the option's volatility smile illustrate a shift in traders’ perception about risk in the right versus left tail of the price distribution.     

A Marketing Approach to Commodity Futures Exchanges: A Case Study of the Dutch Hog Industry

This paper proposes a marketing strategic approach to commodity futures exchanges to optimise the (hedging) services offered. First, the environment of commodity futures exchanges is examined. Second, the threats and opportunities of commodity futures exchanges are analysed. Our analysis demonstrates that market orientation is an important element in the market strategies of commodity futures exchanges. Our market strategic framework is applied to the Dutch hog futures market. It is concluded that market penetration is an appropriate strategy. Consequently, to identify the variables that distinguish between farmers who initiate futures positions and farmers who do not, we conducted a discriminant analysis on data gathered from 418 Dutch hog farmers. The discriminant analysis shows that latent variables, such as farmers' perceived performance, farmers' reference price and farmers' market orientation, are important discriminating variables. Furthermore, farmers' cash market behaviour (in terms of the frequency of selling in the spot market) is an important discriminating variable as well. The usefulness of these results as input for a penetration policy is demonstrated.     

Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange

Co-movement between futures prices can arise when commodities are substitutes. Counterintuitively, Dawson and White fail to find a significant long-run link between feed barley and wheat prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. This relationship is re-examined using  Johansen, Mosconi, and Nielsen's co-integration procedure that permits structural breaks. Results show evidence of co-integration and hence price discovery. There is a significant break in October 2000 following Common Agricultural Policy intervention price reductions, the barley–wheat futures market is perfectly integrated, and the barley price Granger-causes the wheat price. Modeling structural breaks in price relationships appears important.     

Could packers manipulate spot markets by tying contracts to futures prices? And do they?

Some producers, policy makers, and researchers claim that packers influence cash prices through contracts tied to futures prices. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical study on the price effects of contract-pricing terms linked to futures price and the related formula pricing terms linked to a cash price. We show that contract-pricing terms tied to a cattle futures price can theoretically be used to reduce the cash price. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that such tied-to-a-futures-price contract-pricing clauses and the related tied-to-a-cash-price formula pricing clauses can be substitutable tools for packers to depress the cash cattle price. Nevertheless, although empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model they show that while such manipulations may occur, their market power impact appears quite small.     

Destabilizing role of futures markets on North American hard red spring wheat spot prices

The objective of the paper is to determine if the futures prices of hard red spring wheat (HRSW) have stabilizing or destabilizing impact on spot HRSW price in North America. Several important results emerge from thorough empirical analysis. First, both Granger causality tests and directed acyclic graph algorithms (DAGs) point to two-way causality between futures and spot HRSW prices and thus endogeneity in both prices formation. To the contrary, both procedures suggest that ending stocks are exogenous to spot and futures HRSW prices. Both vector error correction model and impulse response functions point to a large and long-lasting impact of a shock to futures price on spot price level. Finally, variance decomposition analysis indicates that futures prices are responsible for the bulk of spot price volatility in both short and long run. Our result is consistent with those of theoretical models suggesting that when production (supply side) is the dominant disturbance, spot price is destabilized in both the short and the long run by futures prices. An important implication of this research is the need for alternative market mechanisms or alternative farm policy measures that would mitigate price risk and ensure sustainable farming of American HRSW farmers.     

Finding optimal price risk management instruments: the case of the Spanish potato sector

This article offers a comprehensive analysis of the problem of choosing between alternative market risk management instruments. We model farmers' behavior to optimize the certainty equivalent, formulated by a mean–variance model, by combining instruments with and without basis risk. Results are expressed as the demands for hedging with futures, forward contracts and insurance. Theoretical results are applied to a selection of Spanish producers of fresh potatoes, a sector that is exposed to significant market risks. Amsterdam's Euronext provides potato futures prices, and the recently launched revenue insurance in Spain provides the example for price insurance. Three conclusions summarize the article's main findings. First, we show that Spanish potato revenue insurance subsidies are a factor that determines the instrument rankings and choice. Second, the efficiency of insurance subsidies is generally low. Finally, the Amsterdam potato futures market does not provide a cost‐effective means to manage price risks for Spanish fresh potato growers.     

Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options

Evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices is time-dependent both as a function of calendar-time (seasonal effect) and time to maturity (maturity effect). This article extends Bates' (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in the volatility specification. Both in-sample and out-of-sample procedures to fit market option prices on wheat futures show that the suggested model outperforms previous published models. A numerical example shows the magnitude of pricing errors for option valuation.     

Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing commodity price risk in many industries. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The US lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2×4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead–lag relationships between the 3-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber, representative spot prices, and lumber futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Results suggest that at least for 2×4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Block Lumber lead both the spot price and futures price, suggesting that this private cash forward market provides some level of price discovery in the lumber markets.     

Out‐of‐sample testing price discovery in commodity markets: the case of soybeans

Price discovery, a central function of futures markets, has been usually tested in‐sample by studying the common stochastic trend between spot and futures prices. Instead, to evaluate futures as anticipatory prices, we develop a forecast approach to out‐of‐sample test price discovery in a multivariate framework. We apply it to the soybeans market. Results indicate futures prices as the best available “predictors” of future spot prices, although this finding holds only on average and for certain periods, other models show forecasting gains.     

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.