THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TRADE POLICY ON DEVELOPING COUNTRY AGRICULTURE*

The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations has attracted much attention in the developing countries. It promises to weaken moves towards bilateral trade agreements, break open trade in temperate agricultural products, and should remove the last vestiges of protection against tropical products – although tariff escalation will remain. Overall, the main gains for the developing world will probably accrue to exporters of temperate products, above all those in Latin America; whilst for some of the poorer countries, losses may occur as the benefits of special and favoured access to the industrialised countries' markets will be eroded.     

ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR WATER IN COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE*

The foundation of the demand for water in agriculture is the water response functions of the various crops grown. As the productivity of water is largely determined by the lime at which a crop is irrigated, both intra-seasonal and seasonal demand schedules for water exist for the firm and so for the region. The efficient interregional allocation and pricing of water between users may be assessed using spatial equilibrium models. While a profit maximising objective may be valid for the firm, as the level of an analysis moves to the regional or the inter-regional complex, increasing attention must be paid to non-economic goals which must be incorporated within societies' objective. La demande ?eau dans ?agriculture se base sur les fonctions du besoin ?eau des récolies différents. Tandis que la productivité de ?eau est déterminé en grande parlie selon la saison pendant laquelle une récolle est irriguée, des programmes de demande intra-saisonnier et saisonnier pour ?eau existe pour ?exploitation, ainsi que pour la région. ?allocation efficace au niveau inter-régional et ?établissement ?un prix pour ?eau parmi les utilisateurs peuvent être évalués en se servant de modèles ?equilibre spatial. Tandis qu'un but de maximisation de profit peut être valide pour ?exploitation. au moment ou une analyse comprend le systems régional ou inter-regional, il faut aussi considérer les buts non-économiques qui doivent etre incorporés dans les objectifs sociaux.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE*

This paper is an outline only of a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham. The paper proposes a socio-economic model of farm production with special emphasis placed on the role of management: formulates an econometric model, to represent the socio-economic model, in which the degree of managerial efficiency appears as a variable, and suggests means of interpretation of the econometric model to aid farm planning at the individual farm level.     

寻求我国农业产业化的新道路

建设社会主义新农村是构建和谐社会最为重要的内容。而解决"三农"问题的核心在于解决农业"怎样生产"的问题,即必须摆脱目前仍以家庭为作业单位、以土地的分散经营和农户自营的市场销售为主的农业生产方式,走农业产业化的道路。该文从国际经验的对比分析出发,论述了我国农业产业化发展的约束条件和积极因素,指出了当前我国农业产业化发展的重点和基本路径。     

THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PAPUA AND NEW GUINEA

Primary production including subsistence production, accounts for about 60 per cent of the national income of Papua and New Guinea. The bulk of the indigenous people are subsistence farmers, or have contact with the cash economy through agriculture, and the agricultural industries provide virtually the sole source of export earnings. The position is nevertheless changing rapidly.     

THE PATTERN OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FARM MACHINERY*

This paper is a detailed comparison of the actual 1967 world trade patterns in tractors, harvesting machinery, and cultivating machinery and the ideal least-cost trade patterns in these three commodities. This comparison gives a measure of the opportunity costs the world pays for having the actual trade patterns instead of the least-cost trade patterns. It also helps one identify the production centres that are best located to serve world demands. The model used enables one to measure the way in which customs duties influence the cost advantages of different production centres. It also measures the significance of transportation costs as a natural barrier protecting the domestic farm machinery industry in different countries. The year 1967 was selected for study because the Canadian Royal Commission on Farm Machinery provided some cost data relevant for that time period. Cet article comprend une comparaison détaitée des caractéristiques réels du commerce mondial (en 1967) en tracteurs el machines agricoles avec les caractéristiques idéales de commerce au moindre coût pour ces mêmes produits. Cette comparaison donne une mesure des coûts d'opportunité que le monde paie pour avoir les caractéristiques réel les au lieu des caractéristiques de commerce au moindre coût. Ceci nous aide également à identifier les centres de production qui sont le mieux placer pour servier la demande mondiale. Ce modèle nous permet de mesurer dans quelle manière les tarifs douaniers influencent les avantages, en matière de coût, de differents centres de production. 11 nous permet également de mesurer la signification des coûts de transport comme obstacle natural protectant I'industrie de machines agricoles dans different pays. Nous avons choisi pour notre étude l'annié 1967 parce que la Commission Royale D'Enquête Relative Aux Machine Agricoles a mis à notre disposition des données concernant les coûts se rapportant à ladite période.     

黄土高原丘陵沟壑区农业结构调整的思考

阐述了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区农业结构调整的5个重大问题：一是大力提高基本农田的综合生产能力;二是生态效益与经济效益相结合;三是坡地综合治理与合理利用;四是发展小城镇建设;五是发展具有当地资源优势的特色经济。     

AGRICULTURE IN THE NEW RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The causes of the present crisis are sought in the historical origins of the role of agriculture in the forced march to industrialisation by the USSR and in the impact of the recent, post-Soviet reforms on agriculture. The collapse is compared with the damage inflicted on farming in the Second World War but it is also noted that the recent decline in farming is not so severe as that in industry. Some of the essential preconditions for recovery are briefly considered.     

新常态下农业可持续发展的 新问题及对策研究

新常态下,中国的农业发展面临着机遇与挑战,文章试图通过分析这些挑战和机遇,提出在新常态下农业持续发展的相应对策。加入世贸组织以来,我国的农业发展面临着价格上升难和成本增加快的双重压力,并且近年来由于世贸框架下"黄箱补贴"可利用空间越来越小,我国自然资源承载力超高负荷,因此我国农业发展的问题愈来愈多。不仅如此,长期以来我国经济的高速运行为农业发展带来了强劲的需求拉动力,然而,由于社会经济发展已经进入新常态的现实,但由于经营组织方式的影响,农民农业经营收入偏低,大部分农民失去了持续经营土地的动力。此外,我国的农业发展面临着结构转型、技术升级、组织形式更新以及实现农业可持续发展的多重挑战。我国农业发展如何从资源过度开发、面源污染加重以及低科技水平转变为资源节约、环境友好的可持续发展的现代农业,是目前我国新常态下国际农产品市场竞争背景下亟需解决的现实问题。文章通过分析新常态下我国农业发展遇到的问题,试图开辟出多产业结合、多种组织形式并存、高科技、高度产业化的农业可持续发展道路。     

新疆农业发展新模式:中介组织主导型市场农业

文章从近年来新疆农业产量增长,而农民收入增长缓慢这一背景出发,在全面分析中介组织主导型市场农业的基本架构及运行模式的基础上,指出新疆应转换“强调生产,忽视市场”的以生产为主导的农业增长模式,将中介组织主导型市场农业确立为新疆农业的增长模式。并对政府如何构建中介组织主导型市场农业提出了政策建议。     

青海高原生态环境与农业可持续发展

从青海高原生态环境特征出发,具体地阐述了该地区生态的脆弱性,认为该地区生态环境恶化主要是人类不合理开发利用资源的缥果,在新的市场经济条件下,应注意保持资源开发利用和保护增殖的平衡,走开发与保护并举的道路,提出了建立生态农业,以可持续发展去协调人地关系的初步对策,力求做到农业资源永续利用,保持生态的良性循环。     

TESTING FOR CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN AUSTRALIA

Quarterly data from 1962 to 1983 for beef, lamb, mutton, pig meat and poultry were used to test for constancy in the structure of meat demand in Australia. The cumulative sum, cumulative sum of squares and Farley-Hinich tests were applied to a range of models to ensure that any rejection of stability was not due to an inappropriate functional form or omitted dynamics. Little evidence was found of a marked swing away from consumption of any meat, with the exception of mutton. The results suggest that changes in prices and in total consumer expenditure are far more important than changes in tastes as determinants of meat consumption.