Corporate Governance and Financial Performance of Companies in Poland

The research presented in the paper is aimed at examining the relationship between the level of corporate governance and the financial performance of listed companies in Poland. The corporate governance degree is expressed by the outcomes of a rating of 2003 performed by Polish Corporate Governance Forum. The attempted models are of ordered multinomial type. Endogenous variable represents the rating outcome (A−, B+, B, B−, and C+), while the exogenous variables include various financial indicators evaluated on the basis of the 2002 financial statements. The estimated ordered logit models show that the level of corporate governance of companies in Poland is associated with their ability to cope with the financial distress, as expressed by the degree of liquidity, profitability and the financial leverage variables.     

我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象 ,选取了 70家处于财务困境的公司和 70家财务正常的公司为样本 ,首先应用剖面分析和单变量判定分析 ,研究财务困境出现前 5年内各年这二类公司 2 1个财务指标的差异 ,最后选定 6个为预测指标 ,应用Fisher线性判定分析、多元线性回归分析和Logistic回归分析三种方法 ,分别建立三种预测财务困境的模型。研究结果表明 :(1 )在财务困境发生前 2年或 1年 ,有 1 6个财务指标的信息时效性较强 ,其中净资产报酬率的判别成功率较高 ;(2 )三种模型均能在财务困境发生前做出相对准确的预测 ,在财务困境发生前 4年的误判率在 2 8%以内 ;(3)相对同一信息集而言 ,Logistic预测模型的误判率最低 ,财务困境发生前 1年的误判率仅为 6 .47%     

The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Polish Companies

The main objective of this paper is to investigate which of the two competing capital structure theories – the pecking order of financing choices or the traditional static trade-off model – better describes the financing decisions in Polish companies traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The data come from financial statements of the companies and cover a 5-year period, 2000–2004. First, a correlation is run in order to separate a set of significant factors influencing the capital structure from the list of the following independent variables: assets structure, profitability, growth opportunities, liquidity, firm size, product uniqueness, earnings volatility, non-debt tax shields, dividend policy, and the effective tax rate. Next, in order to test the relationship between capital structure and its potential determinants, multiple regression is run. The evidence generally suggests the relevance of the pecking order hypothesis in explaining the financing choices of Polish firms.

财务困境对CEO薪酬影响的实证分析——基于中国信息行业上市公司的研究

以资产负债率作为财务困境的替代变量,考察了中国信息行业上市公司财务困境与CEO薪酬变动之间的关系。研究表明,陷入财务困境的公司比未陷入财务困境的公司更易影响CEO薪酬变动。为此,探讨了陷入财务困境企业的CEO薪酬激励制度。     

基于价值创造和公司治理的财务状态分析与预测模型研究

我国约70%的上市公司处于价值损害状态。考虑到公司在对债权人违约之前,必先经历损害股东价值的阶段。因此,本文根据“价值创造观”(Value-Creation)来考察“价值损害型公司”的动态变化及其影响因素,并收集我国1998—2003年540家价值损害型上市公司的有关财务变量,首次引入公司内外部治理变量,应用“排序因变量模型”分析财务状态变化的影响因素,并采用“人工神经网络技术”,预测价值损害型企业的五种变化趋势:财务康复、财务转好、财务维持、财务转差或财务困境。结果表明:(1)总资产收益率等财务指标的改善,公司治理水平的提升或投资者保护程度的增强都有助于公司财务康复,反之则将导致公司陷入财务困境。(2)若公司在T年被界定为价值损害型公司,当采用T年和T+1年的数据分别构造“LMBP神经网络模型”来预测企业T+2年的财务状况的五种态势时,则预测准确率分别为55.1%和77.8%。(3)除财务指标外,股票超额收益率、本文构造的公司治理指数和投资者利益保护指数有助于预测价值损害型企业未来财务状态的变化趋势。     

Conditional correlations in the returns on oil companies stock prices and their determinants

The identification of the forces that drive stock returns and the dynamics of their associated volatilities is a major concern in empirical economics and finance. This analysis is extremely important for determining optimal hedging strategies. This paper investigates the stock prices’ returns and their financial risk factors for several integrated oil companies, namely Bp (BP), Chevron-Texaco (CVX), Eni (ENI), Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch (RD) and Total-Fina Elf (TFE). We measure the actual co-risk in stock returns and their determinants “within” and “between” the different oil companies, using multivariate cointegration techniques in modelling the conditional mean, as well as multivariate GARCH models for the conditional variances. The distinguishing features of this paper are: (i) focus on the determinants of the market value of each company using the cointegrated VAR/VECM methodology; (ii) specification of the conditional variances of VECM residuals with the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) multivariate GARCH model of Bollerslev [(1990) Review of Economics and Statistics 72:498–505] and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model of Engle [(2002) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20:339–350]; (iii) discussion of the performance of optimal hedge ratios calculated with the DCC estimates. The “within” and “between” DCC indicate time-varying interdependence between stock return volatilities and their determinants. Moreover, DCC models are shown to produce more accurate hedging strategies.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Does performance explain mutual fund flows in small markets? The case of Portugal

We study the performance reaction of investors in a specific small market context. Our sample includes all Portuguese open-end equity funds that invested in stocks issued by Portuguese companies in the period December 1993–June 2009. Instead of the convex flow–performance relationship usually documented for the US, we find an absence of reaction to past performance. We find no evidence to support the “smart money effect”, given that capital flows do not favour next period performance winners. We also document persistence of fund flows. Our results are consistent with the idea that large financial intermediaries have the capacity “to drive” their customers to funds with larger fees.     

Prediction of financial distress for multinational corporations: Panel estimations across countries

This research predicts ex-ante financial distress and analyses the link between financial distress, performance, employment, `and research and development (R&D) investment in the case of multinational companies (MNCs). The conditional logit and hazard models are employed to predict financial distress, while a conditional mixed process model is employed to obtain consistent and efficient estimates. Financial distress generates contractions in performance, employment, and R&D investment. Hedging against risk mitigates the effect of financial distress on R&D. Our findings vary across countries, for example, we find MNCs in Canada, Israel and the U.S. benefit from hedging against risk. The findings also indicate that ex-ante financial distress is detrimental to employment for Canada, the U.K., the Netherlands and the U.S. The findings indicate the MNCs play different roles across countries in contributing jobs, investment in R&D during the distress period.     

European country heterogeneity in financial distress prediction: An empirical analysis with macroeconomic and regulatory factors

This study tried to improve the understanding of the impact of context variables on the risk of financial difficulties from an European companies experience. To this end, a multilevel logistic model is developed to exploit the benefits of transnational analysis and to examine the effects of contextual factors in countries and the individual impacts of companies within each country. The resulting estimates and the post-estimation analysis based on non-parametric techniques demonstrated that country effects vary randomly but that significant variance exists in the level of financial distress within and between countries. The results also corroborate that companies’ financial variables provide extremely important information. However, the macroeconomic and regulatory factors of the environments in which these companies operate help to explain, to a large extent, the existing heterogeneity among countries.     

Generalized method of moments and present value tests of the consumption-capital asset pricing model under transactions costs: evidence from the UK stock market

In this paper we test for the inclusion of the bid–ask spread in the consumption CAPM, in the UK stock market over the time period of 1980–2000. Two econometric models are used: first, Fisher’s (in J Appl Econometrics 9:S71–S94, 1994) asset pricing model is estimated by GMM. We obtain plausible values of all the structural parameters and transactions costs. We subsequently test the robustness of our results by extending the VAR approach proposed by Campbell and Shiller (in Rev Financ Stud 1:195–228, 1988). This is achieved with the inclusion of the normalised bid–ask spread as an independent variable in the pricing equation. Overall, the statistical tests are unable to reject the bid–ask spread as an independent explanatory variable in the C-CAPM. In addition, in the VAR specification we find that both the normalised and the absolute bid–ask spread is a significant predictor of the dividend to price ratio. The paper’s main conclusion is that transaction costs should be included in asset pricing models, as they possess independent explanatory power.      

Reporting Effects of SFAS 143 on Nuclear Decommissioning Costs

SFAS 143, Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations, has the potential to cause significant economic consequences to firms impacted by its provisions. BK&L (Boatsman, J. R.; Khurana, I. K.; Loudder, M. L. “The Economic Implications of Proposed Changes in the Accounting for Nuclear Decommissioning Costs,” Accounting Horizons, 14 (2), June 2000, pp. 211–233) suggests that companies would be required to record materially increased assets, liabilities, and expenses which may subsequently cause a significant impact to commonly used financial ratios. BK&L developed predictions of the pro forma effect on assets, liabilities, and expenses due to SFAS 143 adoption by nuclear power utilities. This study examines the actual financial statement effect on BK&L's sample firms due to the adoption of SFAS 143. Results indicate that concern voiced over the standard's requirement to capitalize asset retirement obligations and the related asset, and to record additional expenses by nuclear power companies may have been unfounded.     

上市公司财务困境成本与股权结构

本文以沪深两市2004～2006年因财务困境而被ST的上市公司为样本,计量了其财务困境成本,并进一步分析股权结构对财务困境成本的影响。结果表明,我国上市公司的财务困境成本平均为17.27%,且各公司间差异较大。公司的控股股权性质显著影响财务困境成本,国有控股公司的财务困境成本较小,而股权集中度和股权制衡度对财务困境成本不具有显著影响。     

基于技术效率和市场信息的财务危机预警研究

本文应用随机前沿生产函数和Merton期权模型对2001～2003年ST公司和相应配对公司危机发生之前的技术效率和违约距离进行了研究。技术效率和违约距离的logistic危机预警模型能更明显提高模型的危机判断正确率。危机发生前第3个年份,财务比率没有发生明显变化,而考虑技术效率和违约距离后,危机公司的区别正确率为76．8％,提高了378％。     

Does financial development promote International trade?

Using China’s panel data of 30 provinces during 1990–2003, this paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China’s foreign trade. Four indicators are used to identify the role of financial development, which capture both the scale and efficiency feature of China’s regional financial development. The effects of other variables are also investigated, including traditional factor endowments, foreign direct investment, infrastructure and institutional quality, etc. In general, the estimation results suggest that financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China’s manufactured goods trade, among which the financial efficiency indicators play a more significant role in promoting manufactured goods trade than those scale indicators. Sensitivity estimations show that the effect of financial development on China’s total trade essentially differs from that on trade in manufactured goods.      

中国货币政策的二元传导机制——"两中介目标、两调控对象"模式研究

The research, using VAR model and economic and financial data starting from January 1998 and expiring by June 2006, by econometric methods and theoretical analysis, examines the intermediate target and transmission channel of China’s monetary policy. The results are as followings: (1) Monetary supply M2 is a good indicator for China’s monetary policy, its prediction ability to economic variables is far above other monetary variables; (2) M2 is China’s monetary intermediate target because M2 reacts systematically to the industrial added value and CPI, and M2 innovation is made by the People’s Bank of China (PBC); (3) Monetary transmission channel does not exist in China basically, the main transmission channel is bank loans, credit quota is a de facto intermediate target, which regulates macroeconomy directly and induces the changes in M2, so there are two intermediate targets—credit quota and M2, which is fundamentally the same as the situation before 1998; (4) The two intermediate targets function in different fields—credit quota for real economy and M2 for the financial market, which is a realistic choice and PBC has successfully coordinated them. These conclusions are meaningful for the practices of China’s monetary policy, which indicates that we should pay more attention to the credit quota and take it as the core variable to regulate macroeconomy. Of course, this monetary transmission mode is only effective temporarily because there are many limitations in it. In the future, it is necessary to adopt the interest rate, which is more informative, as the intermediate target, which takes the marketization of the interest rate and exchange rate as the preconditions. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (10): 37–51     

审计师变更的原因:意见分歧

本文选取2002至2005年间我国A股市场发生自愿性审计师变更的公司为研究样本,主要运用Logistic回归模型,对我国上市公司审计师变更的原因进行实证研究。结果发现,异地审计、控股股东或董事长变更、非标意见、盈余管理是影响审计师变更的显著因素,而财务困境变量对模型并没有显著的解释能力。本文将审计师变更的原因分为意见分歧和非意见分歧,并发现,与非意见分歧相比,意见分歧是审计师变更的更为主要的原因。本文还发现,公司披露的审计师变更原因并不可靠,而更可能是为了掩盖意见分歧的借口。     

上市公司财务报表粉饰识别

上市公司财务报表粉饰现象是一个世界性难题。有必要借助一定的技术手段,对上市公司的财务报表粉饰行为进行识别,以便更好地对上市公司进行监管。相比传统的财务分析方法,关联挖掘技术在识别上市公司财务报表粉饰行为方面具有更好的效果。文章以特定期间微利企业的财务报表为研究对象,从沪深两市选取50家微利公司作为样本,利用关联挖掘技术中的Apriori算法,对其财务报表中的八大指标进行逐层搜索和迭代,找出具有强相关性的财务指标并对其关联规则进行分析和测试,从而识别出标识报表粉饰行为的关联特征指标值。分析表明：与良性发展的企业相比,那些连续亏损的企业具有更强的报表粉饰动机和可能性,这些企业往往通过关联交易等线下项目途径达到微利的目的。文章最后提出了更为有效地利用关联挖掘技术对这种行为进行识别的建议。     

Evaluation of Selected Methods of Classification for the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The portfolio analysis allows a complex analysis of all the securities and it is connected with diversification of the portfolios risk. The problem that arises before the portfolios will be constructed and is connected with database of securities—what generally simplifies selection securities to portfolios. In a way of building database can be useful a taxonomic methods. The main aim of the paper is researching stability classifications for proposing methods and verification how different or similar they are. Such an approach in analysis of classification stability gives more information about researching companies and their financial or economic stability. It also gives information about the Polish capital market. In addition, such analyses are useful in making investment decisions, particularly in selection companies to portfolio. Presented at the Fifty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 10–14, 2004, Lisbon, Portugal.     

基于可持续增长率的杜邦分析体系的研究

在经济全球化大环境下，企业具有更加多样化的会计信息，也就更需要能全面反映企业业绩的财务分析体系。多年来传统杜邦分析法虽因能系统、全面、直观地反映企业财务状况，提高对财务报表的分析效率，提升经营管理能力而得到企业的广泛应用，但它本身存在着诸多缺陷。针对其局限性，本文引入可持续增长率来改进传统的杜邦分析体系以更加符合现代企业的要求。