A minimal characterization of the covariance matrix

Summary LetX be ak-dimensional random vector with mean vectorμ and non-singular covariance matrix Σ. We show that among all pairs (a, Δ),a ∈ IR ^k , Δ ∈ IR ^k×k positive definite and symmetric andE(X−a)′ Δ⁻¹(X−a)=k, (μ, Σ) is the unique pair which minimizes det Δ. This motivates certain robust estimators of location and scale. Research supported by the Nuffield Foundation.     

A characterization of the normal distribution by sufficiency of the least squares estimation

Summary For a linear modelY =ϑ + Z,ϑ ∈V,V ⊂ ℝ ⁿ a linear space, the following theorem is proved under simple conditions on the subspaceV: The projection onV (i.e. the least squares estimate forϑ) is a sufficient statistic iffZ is normally distributed. Further, this result is extended to the case of a multivariate linear model.     

Characterization of the multivariate normal distribution by conditional normal distributions

Summary LetX andY be two random vectors with values in ℝ ^k and ℝ∝, respectively. IfZ=(X ^T,Y ^T) ^T is multivariate normal thenX givenY=y andY givenX=x are (multivariate) normal; the converse is wrong. In this paper simple additional conditions are stated such that the converse is true, too. Furthermore, the case is treated that the random vectorZ=(X ₁ ^T , …,X _t ^T ) ^T is splitted intot≥3 partsX ₁, …,X _t.     

Consistent estimation in the presence of incidental parameters

Summary Let (X,A) be a measurable space andP _ϑη |A (ϑη) ∈ Θ x H, ∥A, (θ, η) ∈ Θ×H, a parametrized family of probability measures (for short:p-measures). This paper is concerned with the problem of consistently estimatingθ from realizations governed by , where η^u ∈ H, v ∈ ℕ, are unknown.     

Multivariate L1 mean

The center of a univariate data set {x ₁,…,x _n} can be defined as the point μ that minimizes the norm of the vector of distances y′=(|x ₁−μ|,…,|x _n−μ|). As the median and the mean are the minimizers of respectively the L ₁- and the L ₂-norm of y, they are two alternatives to describe the center of a univariate data set. The center μ of a multivariate data set {x ₁,…,x _n} can also be defined as minimizer of the norm of a vector of distances. In multivariate situations however, there are several kinds of distances. In this note, we consider the vector of L ₁-distances y′₁=(∥x ₁- μ∥₁,…,∥x _n- μ∥₁) and the vector of L ₂-distances y′₂=(∥x ₁- μ∥₂,…,∥x _n-μ∥₂). We define the L ₁-median and the L ₁-mean as the minimizers of respectively the L ₁- and the L ₂-norm of y ₁; and then the L ₂-median and the L ₂-mean as the minimizers of respectively the L ₁- and the L ₂-norm of y ₂. In doing so, we obtain four alternatives to describe the center of a multivariate data set. While three of them have been already investigated in the statistical literature, the L ₁-mean appears to be a new concept. Received January 1999     

Tests und Konfidenzintervalle für exponentielle Verteilungen und deren Anwendung auf einige diskrete Verteilungen

Zusammenfassung Es werden Verteilungen betrachtet, die (bezüglich irgendeines Ma?es) eine Dichte der GestaltC(ϑ) exp [ϑ x] besitzen. Für solche Verteilungen werden (ein- und zweiseitige) Tests und Konfidenzintervalle mit gewissen Optimalit?tseigenschaften entwickelt, und zwar fürϑ, für die Differenzϑ ₁ −ϑ ₂, sowie für einige Versionen desk-Stichproben Problems. Sodann werden einige Hilfss?tze über den bedingten Erwartungswert und die bedingte Varianz von zweiparametrigen Verteilungen abgeleitet, die bezüglich des einen Parameters reproduktiv sind und eine bezüglich des zweiten Parameters ersch?pfende und vollst?ndige Funktion besitzen. Schlie?lich werden die allgemeinen Ergebnisse auf einige diskrete Verteilungen (Binomial, Poisson, negativ Binomial, Pascal) angewendet und der Zusammenhang mit verschiedenen bekannten Tests diskutiert.

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Summary Probability distributions are considered which (with respect to any measure) possess a density function of the typeC(ϑ) exp [ϑ x]. For distributions of this type (one and twosided) tests and confidence intervals with some optimal properties are given, namely forϑ, for the differenceϑ ₁ −ϑ ₂, and for several versions of thek-sample problem. Furthermore, some lemmas concerning the conditional expectation and the conditional variance are proved for two-parameter families of distributions which are reproductive in one parameter and possess a complete statistic, sufficient for the second parameter. Finally the general results are applied to some discrete distributions (binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, Pascal) and the relationship to several fairly known tests is discussed.

     

Minimax estimation under convex loss when the parameter interval is bounded

In the present paper families of truncated distributions with a Lebesgue density forx=(x ₁,...,x _n ) ε ℝ ⁿ are considered, wheref ₀:ℝ → (0, ∞) is a known continuous function andC _n (ϑ) denotes a normalization constant. The unknown truncation parameterϑ which is assumed to belong to a bounded parameter intervalΘ=[0,d] is to be estimated under a convex loss function. It is studied whether a two point prior and a corresponding Bayes estimator form a saddle point when the parameter interval is sufficiently small.     

A generalized maximum likelihood characterization of the normal distribution

LetP be a probability measure on ℝ andI _x be the set of alln-dimensional rectangles containingx. If for allx ∈ ℝⁿ and θ ∈ ℝ the inequality holds,P is a normal distributioin with mean 0 or the unit mass at 0. The result generalizes Teicher’s (1961) maximum likelihood characterization of the normal density to a characterization ofN(0, σ²) amongall distributions (including those without density). The m.l. principle used is that of Scholz (1980).     

On kalman filtering,posterior mode estimation and fisher scoring in dynamic exponential family regression

Summary Dynamic exponential family regression provides a framework for nonlinear regression analysis with time dependent parametersβ ₀,β ₁, …,β _t, …, dimβ _t=p. In addition to the familiar conditionally Gaussian model, it covers e.g. models for categorical or counted responses. Parameters can be estimated by extended Kalman filtering and smoothing. In this paper, further algorithms are presented. They are derived from posterior mode estimation of the whole parameter vector (β′₀, …,β′_t) by Gauss-Newton resp. Fisher scoring iterations. Factorizing the information matrix into block-bidiagonal matrices, algorithms can be given in a forward-backward recursive form where only inverses of “small”p×p-matrices occur. Approximate error covariance matrices are obtained by an inversion formula for the information matrix, which is explicit up top×p-matrices. Heinz Leo Kaufmann, my friend and coauthor for many years, died in a tragical rock climbing accident in August 1989. This paper is dedicated to his memory.     

Multi-stage point and interval estimation of the largest mean ofK normal populations and the associated second-order properties

Summary We havek independent normal populations with unknown meansμ ₁, …,μ _k and a common unknown varianceσ ². Both point and interval estimation procedures for the largest mean are proposed by means of sequential and three-stage procedures. For the point estimation problem, we require that the maximal risk be at mostW, a preassigned positive number. For the other problem, we wish to construct a fixed-width confidence interval having the confidence coefficient at least 1-α, a preassigned number between zero and one. Asymptotic second order expansions are provided for various characteristics, such as average sample size, associated risks etc., for the suggested multi-stage estimation procedures.     

On maximum likelihood prediction based on Type II doubly censored exponential data

In this paper, the maximum likelihood predictor (MLP) of the kth ordered observation, t _k, in a sample of size n from a two-parameter exponential distribution as well as the predictive maximum likelihood estimators (PMLE's) of the location and scale parameters, θ and β, based on the observed values t _r, …, t _s (1≤r≤s<k≤n), are obtained in closed forms, contrary to the belief they cannot be so expressed. When θ is known, however, the PMLE of β and MLP of t _k do not admit explicit expressions. It is shown here that they exist and are unique; sharp lower and upper bounds are also provided. The derived predictors and estimators are reasonable and also have good asymptotic properties. As applications, the total duration time in a life test and the failure time of a k-out-of-n system may be predicted. Finally, an illustrative example is included. Received: August 1999     

$${\phi_p}$$-optimal designs for a linear log contrast model for experiments with mixtures

A mixture experiment is an experiment in which the k ingredients are nonnegative and subject to the simplex restriction on the (k − 1)-dimensional probability simplex S ^k-1. In this work, an essentially complete class of designs under the Kiefer ordering for a linear log contrast model with a mixture experiment is presented. Based on the completeness result, -optimal designs for all p,−∞ ≤ p ≤ 1 including D- and A-optimal are obtained, where the eigenvalues of the design moment matrix are used. By using the approach presented here, we gain insight on how these -optimal designs behave. Mong-Na Lo Huang was supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, ROC under grant NSC 93-2118-M-110-001.     

On the power function of the exact test for ther×c contingency table

Summary LetN=[n _ij ] (i=1, …,r;j=1, …,c) be the matrix of observed frequencies in anr×c contingency table fromr possibly different multinomial populations with respective probabilitiesp _i =(p _i1, …,p _ic ).Freeman andHalton have proposed an exact conditional test for the hypothesisH ₀ :p _i =(p ₁, …p _c ) of the exact test is derived. Numerical values forβ(p) were previously computed for the special case:r=3,c=2 [Bennett andNakamura, 1964].     

Comparison of test vs. control treatments using distance optimality criterion

We consider the problem of comparison of one test treatment (τ₀) with a set of v control treatments (τ₁, τ₂, …, τ_v) using distance optimality [DS-optimality] criterion introduced by Sinha (1970) in some treatment-connected design settings. It turns out that the nature of DS-optimal designs is quite similar to that for the usual A−, D− and E− optimality criteria. However, the optimality problem is quite complicated in most situations. First we deal with the CRD model and derive DS-optimal allocations for a given set of treatments. The results are almost identical to the A-optimal allocations for such problems. Then we consider a block design set-up and examine the nature of DS-optimal designs. In the process, we introduce the method of weighted coverage probability and maximize the resulting expression to obtain an optimal design. Received: December 1999     

Asymptotic results and tests for the choice of approximative models in nonlinear two-phases regression models, heteroscedatic case

This paper is devoted to the study of the least squares estimator of f for the classical, fixed design, nonlinear model X (t _i)=f(t _i)+ε(t _i), i=1,2,…,n, where the (ε(t _i))_i=1,…,n are independent second order r.v.. The estimation of f is based upon a given parametric form. In Brodeau (1993) this subject has been studied in the homoscedastic case. This time we assume that the ε(t _i) have non constant and unknown variances σ²(t _i). Our main goal is to develop two statistical tests, one for testing that f belongs to a given class of functions possibly discontinuous in their first derivative, and another for comparing two such classes. The fundamental tool is an approximation of the elements of these classes by more regular functions, which leads to asymptotic properties of estimators based on the least squares estimator of the unknown parameters. We point out that Neubauer and Zwanzig (1995) have obtained interesting results for connected subjects by using the same technique of approximation. Received: February 1996     

Estimating process capability index C′′pmk for asymmetric tolerances: Distributional properties

Pearn et al. (1999) considered a capability index C ^′′ _pmk, a new generalization of C _pmk, for processes with asymmetric tolerances. In this paper, we provide a comparison between C ^′′ _pmk and other existing generalizations of C _pmk on the accuracy of measuring process performance for processes with asymmetric tolerances. We show that the new generalization C ^′′ _pmk is superior to other existing generalizations of C _pmk. Under the assumption of normality, we derive explicit forms of the cumulative distribution function and the probability density function of the estimated index . We show that the cumulative distribution function and the probability density function of the estimated index can be expressed in terms of a mixture of the chi-square distribution and the normal distribution. The explicit forms of the cumulative distribution function and the probability density function considerably simplify the complexity for analyzing the statistical properties of the estimated index . Received April 2000     

Notes and Comments: Sup-convolutions of HARA utilities in the affine term structure

Abstract In the financial literature, the problem of maximizing the expected utility of the terminal wealth has been investigated extensively (for a survey, see, e.g., Karatzas and Shreve (1998), p. 153, and references therein) by using different approaches. In this paper, we extend the existing literature in two directions. First, we let the utility function U(.) of the financial agent (who is a price taker) be implicitly defined through I(.)=(U ^′ (.))^–1, which is assumed to be additively separable, i.e., I(.)=∑ _k=1 ^N I _k (.). Second, we solve the investment problem in the general affine term structure model proposed by Duffie and Kan (1996) in which the functions I _k (.), k=1,...,N are associated to HARA utility functions (with possibly different risk aversion parameters), and we show that the utility maximization problem leads to a Riccati ODE. Moreover, we extend to the multi-factor framework the stability result proved in Grasselli (2003), namely, the almost-sure convergence of the solution with respect to the parameters of the utility function. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G11     

Criterion-robust optimal product designs for discrimination between nested response surface models

Consider the problem of discriminating between two rival response surface models and estimating parameters in the identified model. To construct designs serving for both model discrimination and parameter estimation, the M _γ-optimality criterion, which puts weight γ (0≤γ≤1) for model discrimination and 1 − γ for parameter estimation, is adopted. The corresponding M _γ-optimal product design is explicitly derived in terms of canonical moments. With the application of the maximin principle on the M _γ-efficiency of any M _γ'-optimal product design, a criterion-robust optimal product design is proposed.     

Two-sample rank tests with truncated populations

LetX ₁,…,X _m andY ₁,…,Y _n be two independent samples from continuous distributionsF andG respectively. Using a Hoeffding (1951) type theorem, we obtain the distributions of the vector S=(S ₍₁₎,…,S _(n)), whereS _(j)=# (X _i ’s≤Y _(j)) andY _(j) is thej-th order statistic ofY sample, under three truncation models: (a)G is a left truncation ofF orG is a right truncation ofF, (b)F is a right truncation ofH andG is a left truncation ofH, whereH is some continuous distribution function, (c)G is a two tail truncation ofF. Exploiting the relation between S and the vectorR of the ranks of the order statistics of theY-sample in the pooled sample, we can obtain exact distributions of many rank tests. We use these to compare powers of the Hajek test (Hajek 1967), the Sidak Vondracek test (1957) and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test. We derive some order relations between the values of the probagility-functions under each model. Hence find that the tests based onS ₍₁₎ andS _(n) are the UMP rank tests for the alternative (a). We also find LMP rank tests under the alternatives (b) and (c).     

Minimax estimators andΓ-minimax estimators for a bounded normal mean under the lossl p (θ, d)=|θ-d|p

Summary Let the random variableX be normal distributed with known varianceσ ²>0. It is supposed that the unknown meanθ is an element of a bounded intervalΘ. The problem of estimatingθ under the loss functionl _p (θ, d)=|θ-d| ^p p≥2 is considered. In case the length of the intervalθ is sufficiently small the minimax estimator and theΓ(β, τ)-minimax estimator, whereΓ(β, τ) represents special vague prior information, are given.