移动支付对中国家庭储蓄率的影响

中国的高储蓄问题由来已久,降低家庭储蓄率、提高消费有助于形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。本文基于2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了移动支付对中国家庭储蓄率的影响。结果表明,移动支付显著降低了家庭储蓄率。进一步研究发现,缓解流动性约束、信贷约束和扩大社会网络是移动支付降低家庭储蓄率的主要途径。此外,移动支付显著降低家庭为应对健康风险、医疗风险、失业风险、收入风险等不确定性而进行的预防性储蓄。地区异质性分析显示,移动支付对家庭储蓄率的影响在西部地区、四五线城市、农村地区更大。家庭特征异质性分析显示,移动支付对家庭储蓄率的影响在农业户口家庭、中低收入家庭、低受教育水平家庭中效果更加突出。本文研究为理解中国高储蓄问题提供了新的视角,可为制定相关政策提供参考依据。     

移动互联网可及性、金融排斥与商业健康保险参与——来自CHFS数据的证据

基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,使用Probit和Tobit模型,研究了移动互联网可及性对商业健康保险参与的影响。研究发现：移动互联网可及性能显著提高商业健康保险的参与概率和程度,对城镇、户主受教育程度高和成员有创业经历的家庭的影响更大。采用所在小区智能手机平均数量作为工具变量进行内生性处理,使用移动支付替换关键变量,结论均稳健成立。机制分析表明移动互联网可及性可通过缓解金融排斥促进家庭参与商业健康保险。     

Supporting Communities in Transition: The Impact of the Armenian Social Investment Fund

The Armenian Social Investment Fund supports communities' effortsto improve local infrastructure during Armenia's economic transitionaway from central planning, financing community-designed and-implemented projects to rehabilitate primary schools, watersystems, and other infrastructure. This article considers thetargeting, household impact, and community effects of the socialfund's activities. It relies on a nationally representativehousehold survey, oversampled in areas where the social fundwas active. Using propensity and pipeline matching techniquesto control for community self-selection into the social fund,it evaluates the household effects of rehabilitating schoolsand water systems. The results show that the social fund reachedpoor households, particularly in rural areas. Education projectsincreased households' spending on education significantly andhad mild effects on school attendance. Potable water projectsincreased household access to water and had mild positive effectson health. Communities that completed a social fund projectwere less likely than the comparison group to complete otherlocal infrastructure projects, suggesting that social capitalwas expended in these early projects. By contrast, communitiesthat joined the social fund later and had not yet completedtheir projects took more initiatives not supported by the socialfund.     

子女照料、家庭负债与已婚女性就业——基于Becker家庭决策模型的微观实证

子女照料与家庭负债对已婚女性的就业选择具有重要影响。为此,在Becker家庭决策模型基础上,建立资产负债约束下已婚女性“子女照料—闲暇—就业”效用最大化决策模型,利用2016年CFPS数据分析发现：子女照料对已婚女性就业概率及周工作时间存在负向影响,且家庭的银行负债对子女照料与已婚女性就业的关系存在负向调节效应。因此,在鼓励女性生育的政策背景下,政府需要综合考虑子女照料负担与家庭负债约束,制定更加有效的已婚女性就业保障政策。     

An Impact Evaluation of Education, Health, and Water Supply Investments by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund

This article reviews the results of an impact evaluation ofsmall-scale rural infrastructure projects in health, water,and education financed by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund.The impact evaluation used panel data on project beneficiariesand control or comparison groups and applied several evaluationmethodologies. An experimental design based on randomizationof the offer to participate in a social fund project was successfulin estimating impact when combined with bounds estimates toaddress noncompliance issues. Propensity score matching wasapplied to baseline data to reduce observable preprogram differencesbetween treatment and comparison groups. Results for educationprojects suggest that although they improved school infrastructure,they had little impact on education outcomes. In contrast, interventionsin health clinics, perhaps because they went beyond simply improvinginfrastructure, raised utilization rates and were associatedwith substantial declines in under-age-five mortality. Investmentsin small community water systems had no major impact on waterquality until combined with community-level training, thoughthey did increase the access to and the quantity of water. Thisincrease in quantity appears to have been sufficient to generatedeclines in under-age-five mortality similar in size to thoseassociated with the health interventions.     

移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查的微观证据

本文运用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,基于鲍莫尔—托宾模型研究了移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响。为了克服移动支付的内生性,本文选取工具变量,用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了估计。研究发现,相较于没有移动支付的家庭,拥有移动支付的家庭现金在金融资产的占比下降25%,对其他层次的货币需求也有显著的负向影响,表明移动支付的使用减少了家庭不同层次的货币需求。机制分析表明,交易成本变化是导致移动支付影响现金需求的重要渠道。进一步,本文用分位数回归发现,移动支付对预防性货币需求的影响大于交易性货币需求。移动支付对货币需求的影响在不同的年龄水平、教育水平、城乡地区、东中西部地区和不同城市之间也存在显著差异。本文的研究为理解中国家庭货币需求的变化提供了新的证据,可为相关政策的制定提供参考。     

Women in development: Kenya's experience

In Kenya, the government has promoted economic policies, development programs, and a legal system geared to increase incentives and productive capacity for women. Economic strength, family health and population growth can be greatly effected by programs in women's education, health care, family planning and agriculture extension. There are 10 million women in Kenya and 60% are below 20 years of age. Women's groups have been successful in improving health and family planning practice. Women manage most small farms: 75% of the labor on the farms is provided by women. Kenya has introduced an extension system nationally focusing on women farmers as well as men. Women's demand for credit is strong and the government is considering helping expand credit through women's groups. Water is obtained by women and 9 of 10 spend more than an hour getting water each day for the family. By providing better access to water, more time can be spent on farming, family and other more important pursuits. There are many projects to improve community water supplies sponsored by both governmental and non- governmental organizations. About 1/3 girls and 2/5 boys complete primary school. Women that have more than 5 years of education have less than 3 children. There have been difficulties getting girls into later primary and secondary education, because fewer spots are allocated for girls in government-aided schools. The government it trying to improve this, but many girls drop out because of pregnancy. A third of the deaths of women between 15-35 is caused by maternal mortality. This high rate can be reduced with better prenatal care, better family planning, and more effective care at child birth. There are now about 100,000 new family planning acceptors each year. The World Bank and many international organizations have given support to the women's needs in the development process.     

金融市场参与、风险异质性与家庭幸福

本文研究了金融市场参与对家庭幸福的影响。理论分析显示,金融市场参与通过风险和收益对家庭幸福产生影响。本文运用2015年中国家庭金融调查数据,实证研究了金融市场参与对家庭幸福的影响。为克服内生性,本文选取工具变量,运用极大似然估计发现,家庭参与金融市场会显著提高家庭幸福的可能性。从投资风险的角度进一步研究发现,金融投资的风险异质性对家庭幸福有显著影响:家庭参与低风险金融投资会显著提高家庭幸福,参与高风险金融投资会显著降低家庭幸福。从民间借贷参与中,本文发现家庭参与民间借出款会显著提高家庭幸福的可能性。民间借贷投资风险对家庭幸福的异质性影响也是存在的,高风险借出款对家庭幸福有显著的负向影响。本文为理解家庭金融投资行为与幸福的关系提供了新的证据,可为构建和谐社会提供有益参考。     

The Impact and Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments: Lessons from the Nicaraguan Social Fund

The benefit incidence and impact of projects financed by theNicaraguan Emergency Social Investment Fund are investigatedusing a sample of beneficiaries, a national household survey,and two distinct comparison groups. The first group is constructedon the basis of geographic proximity between similar facilitiesand their corresponding communities; the second is drawn fromthe national Living Standards Measurement Study survey sampleusing propensity score matching techniques. The analysis findsthat the social fund investments in latrines, schools, and healthposts are targeted to poor communities and households, whereasthose in sewerage are targeted to the better-off. Investmentsin water systems are poverty-neutral. Education investmentshave a positive, significant impact on school outcomes regardlessof the comparison group used. The results of health investmentsare less clear. Using one comparison group, the analysis findsthat use of health clinics increased as a result of the investments;using both, it finds higher use of clinics for children underage six with diarrhea. With neither comparison group does itfind improvements in health outcomes. Social fund investmentsin water and sanitation improve access to services but haveno effect on health outcomes.     

金融素养与家庭储蓄率——基于理财规划与借贷约束的解释

金融科技的发展使得人们参与金融市场的门槛与成本迅速降低,金融产品也不断丰富,金融市场参与者的异质性增加,金融素养对家庭金融决策的影响越来越明显。本文研究发现:(1)家庭在安排储蓄与消费时,金融素养有显著影响,金融素养与家庭储蓄率呈倒U型关系。(2)理财规划和借贷约束是影响家庭储蓄率上升的两个渠道。(3)金融素养由低逐渐升高时,家庭的理财规划意识增强,通过提高储蓄率来保障资金充足。当金融素养增加到一定程度,理财规划意识优化资产配置的作用增强,抑制消费的作用减弱,同时借贷约束缓解会帮助家庭增加消费。本文的发现有助于厘清家庭储蓄率差异的成因,对提升居民福利,增强金融教育政策的针对性,有积极意义。     

Do bankers on the board reduce crash risk?

Commercial banker‐directors (CBDs) bring both financial expertise in risk management and conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders. The burgeoning literature on stock price crash risk generates important questions of whether CBDs reduce crash risk. Using BoardEx data from 1999 to 2009, we find supporting evidence that the firms with CBDs experience lower stock price crash risk. Moreover, the reduction of crash risk is more pronounced for high‐risk firms under the monitoring of affiliated banker‐directors. The results of this study are robust to the Heckman selection model, propensity score matching, and alternative measures of crash risk.     

Gender-based and couple-based taxation

In this paper, I explore the optimal taxation of singles and couples in an economy with bargaining couples. The government is concerned with the redistribution of income from individuals with high utility to individuals with low utility, recognizing that some individuals live in couple households where resources are unevenly distributed. I analyze how redistributive linear income taxes, which depend on either gender or household composition (or both) impact the distribution of utility within and across households. An interesting implication arising from the interaction between the model elements is that even though between-group lump-sum transfers always favor women, when the bargaining power of men is high, women are subject to a higher tax rate; this in contrast to previous analyses of gender-based taxation. My quantitative analysis demonstrates that the welfare effects of gender-based taxation are sizable and even larger when taxes depend on the composition of the household.     

人口老龄化与区域创业水平——基于启信宝创业大数据的研究

本文首次基于启信宝大数据获得我国各城市创业数据,同时利用人口推演模型获得各城市人口老龄化数据,利用计划生育政策作为工具变量建立起二者之间的因果识别。本文发现,老年人口抚养比每上升1%,城市创业企业数量将下降10%左右,具有显著的经济意义。本文在宏观和微观两个层面进行了丰富的机制检验,发现同时存在家庭内部的“养老压力”机制和家庭外部的“等级效应”机制,这两条机制分别揭示家庭内部人口老龄化和家庭外部人口老龄化对个体创业行为的影响。整体而言,本文工作补充了人口老龄化与创业的相关研究,也为制定创业和人口政策提供参考。     

Visualizing the negative space: Making feminine accounting practices visible by reference to Japanese women's household accounting practices

This study explores the nature of feminine accounting practices by examining the household accounting practices of Japanese women in the second half of the twentieth century. Household accounting in Japan provides an excellent research site to understand the nature of feminine accounting practices. The social significance of the Japanese household and the country's cultural emphasis on interdependence mean that accounting has a different meaning in the life of Japanese women, compared to what has been identified in Anglo-Saxon-based studies. The study finds that their accounting practice is characterized by the integration of masculine and feminine qualities, as illustrated by Dillard and Reynolds (2008), and is more enabling in nature. Women use ‘hard’, objective accounting figures both to foster the long-term development of the family and to contribute to Japanese society. Accounting has been a vehicle for women to express their motherhood and construct their identity as women. The distinctive nature of Japanese women's accounting practice and the role this practice plays in facilitating feminine values highlight how important it is to further investigate feminine accounting practice in different social and cultural contexts in order to develop gender research in accounting.     

Family planning and health: the Narangwal experiment

The findings of a 7-year field experiment conducted in the Indian Punjab show that integrating family planning with health services is more effective and efficient than providing family planning separately. The field experiment was conducted between 1968 and 1974 at Narangwal in the Indian State of Punjab. It involved 26 villages, with a total population of 35,000 in 1971-72. The demographic characteristics of the villages were found to be typical of the area. 5 groups of villages were provided with different combinations of services for health, nutrition and family planning. A control group received no project services. A population study was made of the effects of integrating family planning with maternal and child health services. A nutritional study looked at the results of integrating nutritional care and health services. The effectiveness of integration was evaluated by identifying it both with increased use of family planning and improved health. Efficiency was judged by relating effectiveness to input costs. Distribution of the benefits was also examined. The effectiveness of these different combinations of services on the use of family planning was measured: 1) by all changes in the use of modern methods of family planning, 2) by the number of new acceptors, 3) by the changes in the proportion of eligible women using contraceptives, and 4) by how many people started to use the more effective methods. Results showed the use of family planning increased substantially in the experimental groups, whereas the control group remained constant. It was also found that, though the services combining family planning with maternal health care stimulated more use of family planning, they were more costly than the more integrated srevices. The Narangwal experiment provides significant evidence in favor of combining the provision of family planning and health services, but its potential for replication on a large scale needs to be studied.     

Land Acquisition,Labor Allocation,and Income Growth of Farm Households

This article investigates how land acquisition during urbanization affects labor allocation decisions of farm households in China. We develop an agricultural household model by including land acquisition to examine its impacts on nonfarm labor participation and income. Two data sets (self-designed household surveys at Xingwen County in 2012 and the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data covering 29 provinces in 2013) are adopted for empirical analysis. The results find that land reduction has significantly positive effects on the probability and the share of family nonfarm labor allocation from both data sets. We also find that land acquisition increases the household income of the land acquisition group in CHFS data.     

Population and the World Bank

The World Bank Group regards excessive population growth as the single greatest obstacle to economic and social advance in the underdeveloped world. Since 1969 the Bank and the International Development Agency have provided countries with technical assistance through education, fact-finding, and analysis and given 65.7 million dollars for population projects. These projects, in India, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, and Malaysia provide training centers, population education, research, and evaluation as well as actual construction of clinics and mobile units. Because population planning touches sensitive areas of religion, caste, race, morality, and politics, the involved nation's political commitment to plan population growth is critical to the success of any program.     

乐观预期、保障能力与商业保险购买——来自中国家庭的微观证据

本文基于中国家庭微观调查数据,在考虑商业保险“保障”和“投资”双重属性的前提下,实证研究了乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买的影响。结果发现,乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买存在显著的积极影响,即户主乐观预期程度越高,家庭购买商业保险的意愿越强。进一步区分保障型商业保险和投资型商业保险,发现乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响主要来自对投资型商业保险的需求,对保障型商业保险购买的影响则不显著。更重要地,不同风险保障能力下乐观预期对商业保险购买存在异质性影响,家庭储蓄较多、社会保障覆盖较好以及社会资本水平较高的家庭,乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响更大。本研究不仅有助于从预期视角理解商业保险市场的“有限参与”之谜,也为提升家庭风险保障和财富增值能力提供了借鉴。     

债务杠杆、财务脆弱性与家庭异质性消费行为

本文通过引入财务脆弱性来描述家庭无法及时或完全履行偿债义务而发生的财务困境,实证分析了债务杠杆对家庭消费的异质性影响。理论机制分析和基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证研究表明,家庭债务杠杆会提升财务脆弱性,从而弱化跨期消费平滑能力,强化消费预算约束,导致家庭落入“高边际消费倾向、低消费支出水平”的低层次消费路径上。进一步分析发现,对于通过负债投资多套房的家庭而言,高债务杠杆会明显增加不确定冲击下的财务脆弱性,进而对消费产生更大的抑制效应;亲友民间借贷的履约机制相对灵活,可以缓解财务脆弱性对家庭消费的抑制效应;债务杠杆上升引致的财务脆弱性,对耐用消费品支出的压缩效应大于非耐用消费品,对农村家庭消费支出的挤占效应大于城镇家庭。本文的研究为我国“不宜依赖消费金融扩大消费”“规范发展消费信贷”等提供了理论解释,对金融服务促进消费发展具有一定政策启示。