Deficits,money and inflation: Comment

This paper re-examines the fiscal policy-money growth linkage analysed by Hamburger-Zwick (1981) in this Journal. Newly revised national income accounts data are employed. Unlike Hamburger-Zwick we do not find any strong evidence of a positive Federal budget deficit-money growth relationship over the period 1961–1974. When the estimation period is extended to 1976 and then to 1978, the results suggest no relationship between deficits and money growth.     

Tight money and inflation

In a recent paper Sargent and Wallace present an example where tightening of monetary policy over a specified time interval, in conjunction with a constant deficit, leads to an increase in the rate of inflation not only beyond this interval but even from the outset. In the present paper I show how the latter result can be derived from a standard monetary-growth model of the Sidrauski-Brock type. This enables a relatively simple interpretation of the apparent paradox.     

Tight money and inflation: Further Results

The Sargent-Wallace results on inflationary effects of monetary restraint are considered in a Sidrauski money growth model when the utility function is unrestricted except for separability. Temporary monetary tightening will eventually lead to higher inflation when the deficit is fixed only if the elasticity of money demand with respect to the money growth rate is less than unity. It is also shown that for inflation to rise immediately further requires the elasticity with respect to the nominal interest rate to be no less than unity.     

World money or domestic money: Which predicts US inflation best?

In this paper I demonstrate that McKinnon and Tan's result that world money outperforms US money in explaining US inflation is sensitive to their choice of price index. When inflation is measured by the US CPI or GNP Deflator, US money outperforms world money in explaining US inflation.     

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

Deficits and money growth in the United States 1872–1983

This paper reports empirical evidence on the relation between government budget deficits and the growth of high-powered money in the United States. High-powered money growth appears to be positively related to war spending during periods when such spending is a substantial fraction of GNP. There is little evidence that the growth of high-powered money is related to the non-war government deficit, measured either in cash or in real terms, after controlling for the level of overall economic activity.     

经济扩张、温和通胀与外生货币供给背景下的债市交易策略

2010年宏观经济基本面将面临经济增长由复苏走向扩张、物价预期由通缩走向通胀、货币供给由内生走向外生的三大转变。由此,货币政策可能在适度宽松基调下有所收紧。在此背景下,2010年的债市机会与风险并存,投资者需要在债券品种、期限和等级方面做出谨慎选择,以应对宏观经济基本面和货币政策的变化。     

对货币供应，产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究

随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。     

Commodity money inflation: theory and evidence from France in 1350–1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the 14th and 15th centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. However, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money.     

Aggregate uncertainty, money and banking

This paper addresses the problem of monitoring the monitor in a model of money and banking with private information and aggregate uncertainty. There is no need to monitor a bank if it requires loans to be repaid partly with money. A market arises at the repayment stage and generates information-revealing prices that perfectly discipline the bank. This mechanism also applies when there exist multiple banks. With multiple banks, competition of private monies improves welfare. A prohibition on private money issue not only eliminates money competition but also triggers free-rider problems among banks, which is detrimental to welfare.     

Banks, private money, and government regulation

We study competition between inside and outside money in economies with trading frictions and financial intermediation. Claims on banks circulate if the redemption rate is low. When the quantity of fiat money is scarce, coexistence of inside and outside money dominates equilibria with a unique medium of exchange. If outside money is ample, banks choose to redeem claims in outside money, which increases welfare. Under binding reserve requirements, tightening monetary policy leads to credit rationing. Our results support recent trends toward lower reserve requirements. However, we also identify situations where restrictions on note issue are beneficial.     

Saving money, saving lives

In 1996, Duke Children's Hospital was in serious trouble. Its $11 million annual operating loss had forced administrators to make cutbacks. As a result, some caregivers felt that the quality of care had deteriorated. Parents' complaints were on the rise. Frustrated staff members were quitting. In this article, Jon Meliones, DCH's chief medical director, candidly describes how his debt-ridden hospital transformed itself into a vibrant and profitable one. The problem, he realized, was that each group in DCH was focusing only on its individual mission. Doctors and nurses wanted to restore their patients to health; they didn't want to have to think about costs. Hospital administrators, for their part, were focused only on controlling wildly escalating health care costs. To keep DCH afloat, clinicians and administrators needed to work together. By listening to staff concerns, turning reams of confusing data into useful information, taking a fresh approach to teamwork, and using the balanced scorecard method, Meliones and his colleagues brought DCH back to life. Developing and implementing the balanced scorecard approach wasn't easy: it took a pilot project, a top-down reorganization, development of a customized information system, and systematic work redesign. But their efforts paid off. Customer satisfaction ratings jumped 18%. Improvements to internal business processes reduced the average length of stay 21% while the readmission rate fell from 7% to 3%. The cost per patient dropped nearly $5,000. And DCH recorded profits of $4 million in 2000. This first-person account is required reading for any executive seeking to revitalize a sagging organization. Meliones shares the operating principles DCH followed to become a thriving business.     

痛点、情怀与赚钱

这是一场投资人和企业家之间的有趣对话,发生在2016（第七届）清洁发展国际融资论坛第二场专题论坛,论坛的主题是：造能降耗与互联网+。主持人是国际融资“十大绿色创新企业”评选活动50评委专家团评委、中能国投投资管理有限公司创始人郭东军。参加对话的投资人都是创投界对清洁技术领域投资有着丰富经验的资深专家,而参与对话的绿色创新企业都是本届以及往届绿色创新企业的代表。     

Devaluation, Fiscal Deficits, and the Real Exchange Rate

This article examines the use of fiscal policies to sustainthe effects of a nominal devaluation on the real exchange rate.It is shown that the magnitude of the change in the real exchangerate depends not only on the size of the devaluation and thedegree of fiscal adjustment but also on the means by which thefiscal deficit is reduced. The change in the nominal exchangerate necessary to maintain the depreciation of the real exchangerate will depend on whether the fiscal deficit is eliminatedby increasing taxes or by reducing government expenditures ontraded and nontraded goods. The required depreciation of thedomestic currency will be larger if the fiscal deficit is reducedby increasing taxes than it will be if the deficit is cut bylowering government expenditures. Further, the depreciationwould be smaller if the cuts in expenditure fell on traded ratherthan nontraded goods. This result implies that the authoritiesmust ensure consistency between exchange rate action and policiesto reduce fiscal imbalances in order to achieve a desired levelof the real exchange rate necessary to attain balance of paymentsequilibrium.     

Uncertain inflation,exchange rates,and bond yields

The yields on international bonds are affected by exchange rate risk and country risk, in addition to factors such as default and duration that are relevant in the pricing of domestic bonds. This paper constructs a theory of bond yields in a single period framework, with the risk of nominal bonds being endogenous to the model. The behaviour of the monetary authority is modelled explicitly and is shown to be a crucial determinant of the risk of nominal bonds. A distinction is made between the risk of default in the usual sense, and the risk of being paid in currency which is worth less in real terms, with the type of risk that is relevant in a particular case depending on the monetary policy followed. The implications of results for exchange rate risk are also explored in a world where Purchasing Power Parity holds.     

Money,interest, inflation and growth in Turkey

This paper estimates a two equation model of inflation and growth in Turkey over the period 1950–1977. Inflation is determined by the difference between the rates of change in nominal money supply and real money demand. The short-run growth function consists of an expectations augmented Phillips curve, to which a credit availability effect is added. Under Turkey's disequilibrium institutional interest rate and exchange control systems, the real supply of domestic credit is determined, in large part, by real money demand which is, in turn, influenced by the real deposit rate of interest. The central bank can use both the nominal money supply and the nominal deposit rate of interest as policy instruments for stabilisation purposes.     

Share values, inflation, and escalating tax rates

The interaction of inflation with a progressive tax system has been known to cause tax rates, and thus tax liabilities, to escalate with nominal income. Often blamed for having undesirable effects on investment and wealth, this feature of modern tax systems has not received formal treatment in the literature. The present study examines the impact of this inflation-related phenomenon upon the value of corporate equity within the framework of partial equilibrium. It is shown that the combination of moderate inflation and a mildly progressive rate structure may have a substantial adverse effect on share values, an effect sharply increasing with the firm's real growth rate. These results provide a partial explanation for the apparent conflict between the Fisherian hypothesis and the commonly observed inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the deflated value of stock price indices. To the extent that occasional adjustment of tax schedules does not prevent taxpayers from being pushed toward higher tax brackets, these results suggest a sizable potential benefit from full indexation of tax rates in an economy suffering from chronic inflation. They also confirm the belief that failure to do so is expecially harmful to economic growth.