On forecasting interest rates: An efficient markets perspective

Efficient markets do not preclude economic agents from successfully forecasting movements in short-term interest rates. For brief forecast intervals, however, ex ante changes in long-term rates are sufficiently close to zero that economic agents are not likely to improve upon the no-change prediction of the martingale model. Economic agents, in effect, are not likely to succeed in forecasting short-term movements in long-term interest rates. This paper illustrates the closeness of the martingale approximation for two sets of Canadian interest rates data, emphasizing the importance of the forecast interval. The paper then examines three sets of recorded forecasts of Canadian interest rates and finds results consistent with the theoretical discussion.     

Monetary policy transparency and pass-through of retail interest rates

This paper examines the degree of pass-through and adjustment speed of retail interest rates in response to changes in benchmark market rates in New Zealand during the period 1994–2004. We consider the effects of policy transparency and financial structure of the monetary transmission mechanism. New Zealand is the first OECD country to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime with specific accountability and transparency provisions. Policy transparency was further enhanced by a shift from quantity (settlement cash) to price (interest rate) operating targets in 1999. Using Phillips–Loretan estimates of cointegrating regressions we find complete long-term pass-through for some but not all retail rates. Our results also show that the introduction of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased the pass-through of floating and deposit rates but not fixed mortgage rates. In line with previous studies we find the immediate pass-through of market interest rates to bank retail rates to be incomplete. Although we find no statistical evidence for asymmetric response of retail rates to changes in market rates other than for business lending rates in the pre OCR period, differences in the magnitude of mean adjustment lags indicate that banks appear to pass on decreases to fixed mortgage rates faster. Overall, our results confirm that monetary policy rate has more influence on short-term interest rates and that increased transparency has lowered instrument volatility and enhanced the efficacy of policy.     

Modelling the term structure of interest rates: An efficient nonparametric approach

We propose a new approach for estimating the coefficients of the term structure equation by means of the volatility of the interest rates and the slope of the yield curve. One advantage of this approach consists in the fact that the drift and the market price of risk are jointly estimated and need not be individually specified. We then generate trajectories in a test problem to investigate the finite properties of this approach. Our simulation results show that this new approach outperforms the classic nonparametric models in the literature. Finally, an application to USA Treasury Bill data is also illustrated.     

Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets

We examine the impact and spillover effects of monetary policy surprises on international bond returns. Within the framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose international bond returns into news regarding future returns, real interest rates and future inflation for Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. We examine how excess bond returns in these three countries are affected by surprise changes in monetary policy in each country. Our measure of the unanticipated element of monetary policy is based on futures markets rather than the more traditional vector autoregression. Our results indicate that excess bond returns primarily react to domestic as compared to foreign monetary policy surprises. We also find there is a strong divergence between the effects of domestic monetary policy on excess bond returns in Germany relative to the U.K. A surprise monetary tightening in Germany (U.K.) leads to a rise (fall) in the excess holding period return. We trace this effect to news about lower (higher) inflation expectations and could be potentially rationalized by differences in the credibility of the monetary policy authority in each country.     

Monetary policy under dual exchange rates

This paper finds that the introduction of dual exchange rates gives the monetary authority greater independence from external constraints than it would otherwise enjoy. The monetary authority is able to influence the level of aggregate demand in the short run and to sterilize the effects of temporary foreign disturbances. In addition, the paper finds that dual rates insulate the domestic economy fully from foreign interest rate changes but do not provide insulation from speculative disturbances.     

OPEC in world financial markets: Oil prices and interest rates

This article examines the relationship between the real rate of interest in world financial markets and the price of oil. If OPEC cannot be viewed as a ‘small’ participant in world financial markets, and should its savings and portfolio behavior differ from that of the rest of the world, then wealth shifts to or from OPEC would affect world interest rates. Subsequently, this paper examines the magnitude of oil price changes required to elicit a significant interest rate change. Our empirical results shed light on OPEC's behavior, which at times may differ from a pure profit maximizing cartel. The short-run price elasticity of the world demand for oil is -0.04 and the long-run elasticity is -0.10. OPEC itself, as expected, faces higher elasticities of -0.08 and -0.36, respectively. The demand elasticity of oil with respect to ‘world’ GNP is 0.8. A major objective of this paper has been to determine the effect of changes in oil prices on world interest rates, and vice versa. Our results imply that only very large oil price increases will have a significant impact on world interest rates. However, oil prices show a non-negligible sensitivity to changes in world interest rates.     

Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets

Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among weekly real interest rates for G-10 countries are examined using a variety of time-series tests. These tests give special attention to the time-series properties of nominal interest rates, ex-ante expected rates of inflation and real interest rates. Term structure information is used to recover a theoretically consistent measure of ex-ante expected inflation. In-sample and out-of-sample Granger causality tests are also examined to evaluate lead/lag relationships among real interest rates. The results provide strong support for well-integrated markets, particularly in the long run. The results imply leadership roles for the US in international asset markets.     

Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets

We examine asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy surprises on stock returns between bull and bear markets in the period 1994 to 2005. We ask how these impacts respond to the relative ability of firms to obtain external finance. We find that the impact of a surprise monetary policy in a bear market is large, negative, and statistically significant, and this holds across size decile portfolios. The impact of a surprise policy action in a bear market for most industries is significantly greater than the impact of surprise monetary policy in a bull market. Controlling for the capacity for external finance, stock returns of firms in bear states respond more than firms in bull states. Capacity for external finance is more important in a bear market, as it partially mitigates the larger impact of monetary policy in a bear market.     

Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?

In emerging markets, external debt is denominated almost entirely in large, developed country currencies such as the U.S. dollar. This liability dollarization offers a channel through which exchange rate variation can lead to business cycle instability. When firms' assets are denominated in domestic currency and liabilities are denominated in foreign currency, an exchange rate depreciation worsens firms' balance sheets, which leads to higher capital costs and contractions in capital spending. To illustrate this, I construct a quantitative, sticky price, small open economy model in which a monetary policy induced devaluation leads to a persistent contraction in output. In this model, fixed exchange rates offer greater stability than an interest rule that targets inflation.     

Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration

The paper reconsiders the role of money and banking in monetary policy analysis by including a banking sector and money in an optimizing model otherwise of a standard type. The model is implemented quantitatively, with a calibration based on US data. It is reasonably successful in providing an endogenous explanation for substantial steady-state differentials between the interbank policy rate and (i) the collateralized loan rate, (ii) the uncollateralized loan rate, (iii) the T-bill rate, (iv) the net marginal product of capital, and (v) a pure intertemporal rate. We find a differential of over 3% p.a. between (iii) and (iv), thereby contributing to resolution of the equity premium puzzle. Dynamic impulse response functions imply pro- or counter-cyclical movements in an external finance premium that can be of quantitative significance. In addition, they suggest that a central bank that fails to recognize the distinction between interbank and other short rates could miss its appropriate settings by as much as 4% p.a. Also, shocks to banking productivity or collateral effectiveness call for large responses in the policy rate.     

Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance

This paper presents a systematic empirical relationship between money and subsequent prices and output, using US, euro area and Swiss data since the 1960-1970s. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent inflation. The usefulness of monetary analysis is contrasted to weaknesses in modeling monetary policy and inflation with respectively short-term interest rates and real activity measures. The analysis sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening, and reveals drawbacks in pursuing a low inflation target without considering monetary aggregates.     

Money supply announcements and interest rates: Does monetary policy matter?

Most current explanations of the effect of money supply announcements on the rate of interest center on central bank policy. This paper analyzes a flexible price macroeconomic model where present and future monetary policy have no influence on either interest rates or real output, but monetary data signal information about real economic activity which influences both short- and long-term real rates of interest. The magnitude of the interest rate response is shown to depend on the difference in the income elasticities of currency and deposit demand and the relative size of monetary and real disturbances to the economy.     

Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro–macro approach

Evidence on central banks’ twin objective, monetary and financial stability, is scarce. We suggest an integrated micro–macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure financial stability directly at the bank level as the probability of distress. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard model for bank distress and a standard macroeconomic model. The advantage of this approach is to incorporate micro information, to allow for non-linearities and to permit general feedback effects between financial distress and the real economy. We base the analysis on German bank and macro data between 1995 and 2004. Our results confirm the existence of a trade-off between monetary and financial stability. An unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases the probability of distress. This effect disappears when neglecting microeffects and non-linearities, underlining their importance. Distress responses are largest for small cooperative banks, weak distress events, and at times when capitalization is low. An important policy implication is that the separation of financial supervision and monetary policy requires close collaboration among members in the European System of Central Banks and national bank supervisors.     

On the term structure of interest rates and the risk of default: An analytical approach

Students of the term structure of interest rates commonly assume the absence of the risk of default. This assumption severely limits the applicability of the results of the term structure theory in the field of corporate finance. In this paper it is explained how the risk of default could be incorporated into the well known unbiased expectations theory and how the resulting model is of direct use for a better understanding of interest rate risk differentials.     

关于货币政策长期利率目标制研究

央行直接调节长期利率是救助此次国际金融危机的重要手段。文章综合实务界和理论界观点,分析常规货币政策框架和非常规货币政策框架下,中央银行调节长期利率的不同机制和效果;在此基础上,对央行能否将长期利率调节作为常规货币政策工具的相关研究进展进行综述和评析。     

New measures of monetary policy surprises and jumps in interest rates

We propose new surprise measures to characterise two important dimensions of monetary policy. Our measures outperform the traditional monetary shocks in explaining variation of interest rates in the event-study framework. We also study the extent to which the ECB caused jumps in euro area interest rates. The new surprises still prevail upon the traditional ones. Jumps play a great role in the variation of interest rates and the ECB induced several jumps with its decisions, but its predictability has improved over time. We find that, although the surprise measures become somewhat distorted due to money market tensions during the financial turmoil, our model still provides an interesting insight into interest rate behaviour throughout the crisis.     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

Monetary policy transmission,interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries

In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was 57%, 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it was everywhere below 8%. We set up a small structural macro model of these three economies to account for the process of disinflation. We show that a simple macro model, with forward-looking inflation and exchange rate expectations, can adequately characterize the relationship between the output gap, inflation, the real interest rate and the exchange rate during this period. This model allows us to assess the relative importance of the interest rate and exchange rate channels in determining the path of disinflation.