温柔西厢

西厢,初听这个名字,不自觉地会与古典四大名剧的《西厢记》联系起来,关于她的美,她的故事,有段时间网上炒作的更是如火如荼。于是,西厢成了一个幽幽的梦。每逢春秋佳日,便为她害了相思。适逢友人相遨,在一个“白云红叶两悠悠”的午后,我踏上了圆梦之旅。     

首席叶檀

叶檀,一个女人,央视财经人物专访对象,《南方周末》、《新京报》高产财经评论员,全国知名财经评论专家。频繁活跃于全国知名媒体之间,迄今为止已在《每日经济新闻》、《中国青年报》、《中国经济时报》、《上海证券报》、《南方都市报》、《新京报》、《中国企业家》等报刊发表过百万的文字。     

错字小议

夜读胡洪侠《书情书色》,有一则说陈望道翻译的《共产党宣言》,1920年的初版本竟然将书名印错了,印成“共党产宣言”.据说此版本存世量不过三四册而已,这个印错的书名大概也成为其版本价值的重要因素之一.     

浙江小百花越剧团越剧《梁山伯与祝英台》

简介：《梁山伯与祝英台》是浙江小百花越剧团的经典剧目，已上演了二、三十年。在众多艺术形式演绎了诸多版本之后，小百花以她独特的演艺视角为观众重新诠释了一次非同一般的《梁祝》。此次，小百花带来的新版《梁祝》在剧情、服装配饰、舞美设计上都力求创新。在剧情方面，强化了戏剧冲突和人物剖析，使演出更加紧凑，     

浅论李白诗《长干行》的英译

《长干行》是李白以商妇的爱情和离别为题材的诗作。全诗层次分明，用语独具个性，形象鲜明可感，在历代思妇诗中别具一格。《长干行》被译成的英文有多种版本流传于世，但译诗出现回译与原文不符的问题较为普遍，不能真实再现原作意象，影响了艺术的感召力。     

负心人（歌名趣味小小说）

《阿福》是《黄土高坡》上的《笨小孩》。《阿福》《长大以后》有了自己的《追求》,他《坚信》,《男儿当自强》《打拼才会赢》。于是《阿福》哼着《好汉歌》,《风雨无阻》地四处《奋斗》打《拼》。     

对三版电视剧《西游记》的思考

早在上世纪80年代，央视女导演杨洁拍摄了第一版电视连续剧《西游记》，这是迄今为止最为内地观众喜闻乐见的版本。     

贾跃进

贾跃进,1963年生,河北省东光县人,现在沧州银行工作。 自1985年以来,其先后在《人民日报》、《经济日报》、《中国青年报》、《市场报》、《中国财经报》、《中国信息报》、《金融早报》、《金融时报》、《人民公安报》、《解放军报》、     

人行张掖中支计量经济学应用初见成效

一、领导重视，率先垂范。支行领导带头参加了研究生班，并结合《区域经济学》、《西方经济学》、《计量经济学》等课程的学习，运用SPSS、Eviews等计量软件建立数学模型，亲自撰写《西部县域经济发展差异定量研究》、《甘肃省居民储蓄消费行为研究》，为实现辖区调查研究方法由定性分析向定性分析紧密结合定量分析的转变带了个好头。     

考试问答---资产评估

为帮助广大考生更好地理解和掌握考试内容，继上期刊发的《财务会计》、《经济法》之后，本期继续刊发《资产评估》、《建筑工程评估基础》两个科目的模拟题。     

西部地区农民收入差距的比较研究分析

目前，西部地区的农民收入最低，增收最困难。与全国和东部农民的收入水平相比，西部地区农民收入的差距主要表现为：在农民收入水平上存在着重大差距；在农民收入增长速度上存在着不稳定差距；在农民收入结构上存在着明显差距；在西部地区的城乡收入上存在着严重差距；在西部地区内部农民收入上存在着巨大差距。     

对外开放要坚持"引进来"和"走出去"的有机结合

党的十六大提出,要“坚持‘引进来’和‘走出去’相结合,全面提高对外开放水平”。如何正确理解这句话的内涵,对于新时期我国的对外开放工作意义重大。为此,应把握三点：一要积极合理地“引进来”,这是全面提高对外开放水平的前提和基础;二要主动高效地“走出去”,这是全面提高对外开放水平的关键点和着力点;三要在“引进来”和“走出去”的有机结合中维护国家经济安全,这是全面提高对外开放水平的根本保障。     

金融制度创新与西部市场化融资体制

成功地开发西部 ,解决资金问题是关键。而在今后相当长的一段历史时期内 ,我国中央政府和地方政府用于西部建设的政策性资金虽然会不断扩大规模 ,但就其在西部开发过程中的作用而言 ,则只能是在一定程度和范围内起到引导社会投资尤其是商业资金市场化运行的作用。因此 ,要从根本上解决西部资本生成困难 ,遏制西部资金外流以及更好地吸引国外和东部商业性资金加速西移等问题 ,则必须通过西部金融制度的深化 ,在西部金融创新的基础上 ,加速西部市场化融资体制的建立。本文就西部金融制度创新、西部市场化融资体制的框架及其二者的关系问题进行了初步探讨     

Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?

Index-based derivatives markets are fast developing in Europe, the US and Asia. Both valuation based and transactions based indices are used as bases for these derivatives contracts. This paper addresses the issue of revision effects on key index parameters, and their implications for derivatives pricing and questions whether these indices may be suitable for derivatives. More specifically, we address the issue of the robustness of the price level, mean, and volatility estimates for two repeat sales real estate price indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) method and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) factorial method, as elaborated in Baroni et al. (J Real Estate Res, 29(2):137–158, 2007). Our work is an extension of Clapham et al. (Real Estate Econ, 34(2):275–302, 2006), with the aim of helping judge the efficiency of such indices in designing real estate derivatives. We use an extensive repeat sales database for the Paris (France) residential market. We describe the dataset used and compute the parameters (index price level, trend and volatility) of the indices produced over the period 1982–2005. We then test the sensitivity of these two indices to revisions due to additional repeat-sales transactions information. Our analysis is conducted on the overall Paris market as well as on sub-markets. Our main conclusion is that even if the revision problem may cause substantial concern for the stability of key parameters that are used as inputs in the pricing of derivatives contracts, the order of magnitude of revision on derivatives pricing is not sufficient to deter market participants when it comes to products such a swap contract or insurance contracts against severe losses. We also show that WRS and PCA react differently to revision. The impact of index revision is non negligible in estimating the index price level for both indices. This result is consistent with existing literature for the US and Swedish markets. Price level revision causes moderate concern when trading products such as index futures or price insurance contracts, but could deter option like products. We show that managing this price level revision risk is similar to delta hedging in standard option pricing theory. We also find that although revision impact on index trend can be important, the WRS method seems more robust than PCA. However, the trend revision impact order of magnitude for contracts such as total return swaps is low. Finally, revision influence on volatility estimates seems to have a modest impact on derivatives, and according to the robustness of the volatility estimate, the PCA factorial index seems to fare relatively better than the WRS index. Hence, our findings show that the factorial index could better sustain volatility based derivatives. We also show that whatever the index, managing this volatility revision risk is similar to vega hedging in option pricing theory.

The index revision party

This paper examines the annual revision of the AEX index in the Netherlands. This particular index is interesting because the revision rules enable investors to anticipate changes in both constituents and index weights long in advance. Our results suggest that attention and temporary price pressure play a role in the observed revision effect. A portfolio containing those stocks expected to benefit from the index revision is showing an outperformance of up to 7% in the weeks before the revision, while losers are unaffected. Around the revision day, we find indications of temporary price pressure for winners as well as losers.     

东北老工业基地经济发展中的金融视角分析

要实现东北老工业基地的振兴成为中国经济增长的第四极地战略目标,金融发展的扶持作用不容忽视。与东部沿海经济发达地区相比,东北的金融发展无论是从量的扩张上,还是在质的提高上都明显落后了。向量自回归模型(VAR)的研究表明东北金融发展与经济发展之间存在着相互的因果关系,金融发展有助于促进经济发展。基于这样的结论,我们提出了有效化解历史包袱,实现金融机构的多元化发展、建立多层次的资本市场和建设以大连为核心的区域金融中心的老工业基地金融发展对策。     

Output spillovers from changes in sovereign credit ratings

This research examines how a sovereign rating revision of one country influences the economic growth rates of other countries. Rating revisions have significant output spillover effects: A one-notch upgrade (downgrade) prompts on average a significant downward revision of about 0.03% (0.07%) in the consensus forecast of annual economic growth rates of other countries in the two-month period after the event. The spillovers are transmitted through direct and indirect trade and financial linkages between event and non-event countries. The evidence indicates that a predominance of differential (common) spillovers leads upgrades (downgrades) to produce adverse output effects for other countries.     

法律语境下“中国造”问题分析

“中国造”问题源出中国粗放式消耗型经济,农村廉价劳动力和资本、资源的低值大量投入换来经济的高增长和快速增长,却伴生了“中国造”与生俱来的营养不良症。对照WTO规则我们仍在完善法律制度和政策规范,也在做相应的跟进和修改。关键是我们要扭转思维,实现“中国造”向现代技术型标准型转轨。中国法律人应对全面解决“中国造”问题做出一份实在贡献。     

The Impact of Analysts' Forecast Errors and Forecast Revisions on Stock Prices

Abstract:  We present a comprehensive analysis of the association between stock returns, quarterly earnings forecast errors, and quarter-ahead and year-ahead earnings forecast revisions. We find that forecast errors and the two forecast revisions have significant effects on stock prices, indicating each conveys information content. Findings also show that the fourth quarter differs from other quarters—the relative importance of the forecast error (quarter-ahead forecast revision) is lower (higher). We also find a marked upward shift over time in the forecast error and forecast revision coefficients, consistent with the I/B/E/S database reflecting an improved quality of both earnings forecasts and actual earnings.