地方财政支出对区域经济增长收敛性的影响分析

地区经济差距问题是我国目前所面临的重要问题,研究发现从长期趋势和整体上来看,我国各省之间经济增长不存在绝对收敛的特征。在中国省际区域间经济增长的条件收敛中,地方财政支出作为控制变量并没有促进经济增长的收敛,加速了区域经济增长的发散。本文在此基础上继续采用β-收敛法来测算地方财政支出的具体支出项目对我国区域经济增长收敛性的影响。     

数字经济对我国区域协调发展的影响研究——基于经济增长收敛视角的分析

经济增长收敛是协调区域发展、助力共同富裕的重要条件。基于经济增长收敛分析框架,使用全国267个地级市2011—2020年的面板数据,探析数字经济对我国区域经济增长收敛性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,数字经济能够显著促进我国城市经济增长并加速促进地区经济增长收敛,缩小地区间经济发展差距。机制分析表明,数字经济可以通过提高创新发展能力、改善资本要素错配情况来促进落后地区经济增长,助力区域协调发展。同时,数字经济在促进区域经济增长收敛时呈现明显的地理空间差异和政府财政能力差异,对西部、北方、非沿海城市和财政自给率较低的城市经济增长收敛效应更加显著。应继续推进数字基础设施建设,大力发展数字经济,以促进区域经济协调增长助力全国统一大市场构建。     

从欧债危机救助机制看中欧区域经济政策的差异

我国是一个发展中的大国,区域经济发展的差异性一直十分突出。尽管改革开放政策促进了各地区经济的普遍增长,但与此同时,地区间的经济差距也在不断扩大。本文拟以欧盟面对部分成员国发生的主权债务危机在救助机制方面的创新为切入点,对中欧区域经济政策上的差异进行比较,并从中得到启示。     

中国-东盟经济自由贸易区的贸易效应与经济效应研究——一种政府绩效评估的模式

中国与东盟于2010年建立《中国-东盟经济自由贸易区》,以促进中国与东盟国家之间双边贸易,增进中国与东盟国家的经济发展。文章在借鉴Balassa(1978)及Ribeiro Ramos(2001)研究的基础上,利用1993-2014年之年度数据,展开中国-东盟CAFTA的贸易效应及经济效应的实证分析。研究发现,中国-东盟CAFTA期间,中国GDP增长与中国从东盟国家进口值存在着贸易转移效应;中国対东盟国家进出口值与中国GDP增长存在协整关系:其中,中国对东盟国家出口值对中国GDP增长有正向影响,中国从东盟国家进口值对中国GDP增长有负向影响。中国-东盟CAFTA的发展重点在于:一是应致力于调节出口产品结构,提高出口产品质量;二是加大直接投资贸易,以带动投资发展效应;三是促进信息制造业的发展。     

北美自贸区与欧盟经济效应的实证分析

区域经济一体化是经济全球化深化发展的新趋势,考察经济一体化对促进区域内经济增长和改善社会福利的影响,是当前学界研究的重点。文章开头介绍了北美自贸区与欧盟的发展现状,中间部分采用ADF检验、协整回归、误差修正模型（ECM）,从实证角度分析了北美自贸区与欧盟的经济增长效应,结论显示欧盟的经济增长效应的显著性高于北美自贸区。     

解读《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》

2022年1月1日,涵盖中国、日本、东盟等15个成员国,全球经济体量和发展潜力最大的自由贸易协定——区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)正式生效。在当前经济全球化遭遇逆流、贸易保护主义抬头的环境下,高举贸易投资自由化便利化大旗的RCEP达成和生效显得弥足珍贵。中国作为RCEP的关键成员,为谈判的顺利完成作出了重要贡献,有力推动了亚太区域经济一体化。     

东盟国家对外贸易与经济增长的理论分析

对外贸易是经济增长的发动机,不同区域对外贸易与经济增长之间的数量关系不尽相同,本文首先对对外贸易与经济增长理论进行了基本回顾,以东盟为样本,论证了这些理论对东盟国家对外贸易与经济增长的知道作用和具体体现,验证了他们的相互促进关系。     

产业结构优化与区域经济收敛的门槛效应研究

以经济开放度作为门槛变量,采用1997-2014年省级面板数据,通过面板门槛模型实证检验了产业结构优化和区域经济收敛之间的门槛效应。结果表明,中国省域经济在产业结构优化过程中存在收敛现象;产业结构优化与区域经济收敛之间存在显著的双重门槛效应,经济开放水平的变动对二者关系的影响呈现出一定的阶段性特征;在任意门槛区间下,产业结构优化对区域经济收敛都存在显著的促进作用,但随着经济开放水平的提高,其影响程度会稍有下降。     

东盟华商与广西区域经济信息系统的构建

在经济全球化和区域一体化的浪潮中，东亚区域经济一体化迅速兴起，华商成为东亚区域经济整合的重要力量。信息化是当今世界经济发展的一个基本特征，信息化与区域经济发展相互促进。因此，构建东盟华商与广西区域经济信息系统，能够发挥东盟华商网络对整个东南亚国家的经贸信息辐射与联动作用，能够发挥广西在中国与东盟中的经贸信息引领作用，以点带面，从而实现中国一东盟自由贸易区的快速发展。     

区域一体化促进了经济增长吗？——基于长三角城市经济协调会的准自然实验

在当下，我国经济发展空间结构正发生深刻转变，区域一体化成为我国城市空间结构发展的重要方向，区域一体化能否对经济增长带来促进作用值得关注。论文基于长三角城市经济协调会这一准自然实验，研究了区域一体化与经济增长之间的关系，研究发现：第一，区域一体化对于经济增长具有显著的促进作用，且这一促进作用随区域一体化的不断深入而逐渐增强；第二，区域一体化对于经济增长的促进作用在个体层面上具有异质性，这一促进作用与城市规模正向相关；第三，通过中介效应检验发现，区域一体化能够从产业结构升级、产业生产率提升和要素分配效率提升三个维度促进经济增长。     

The effect of European integration on trade with the APEC countries: 1981–2000

This study examines whether the European Union (EU) integration has resulted in significant trade decrease with the three Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) sub-groups during 1981–2000: NAFTA, ASEAN, and NIC. To include all the trade data including those with zero data values, this study estimates the modified gravity model using the scaled ordinary least squares method. First, as expected, the EU countries have reduced trade with all three sub-groups, especially during 1996–2000. However, the ASEAN countries maintain a stable level of trade growth with the EU countries. Second, the results indicate that the EU, ASEAN, and NIC countries trade significantly more among themselves due to their respective integration schemes. (JEL F20, F100)     

TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

Economic Integration: Systemic Measures in an Input–Output Framework

Countries are linked through trade and for their mutual benefits they often group together. Consequently, trade blocs are formed in some form or another, examples of which are the EU, EFTA, ASEAN, NAFTA, and SAARC. Depending upon the form and the nature of the grouping, trade relations among countries obviously vary across the trade blocs. The pattern and the volume of trade of the participating countries are different and thus cause different impacts on the growth and development of the countries concerned. Also, the nature of integration changes over time. To examine the strength of integration within trade blocs, systemic measures of integration hitherto not available are formulated in an input–output framework. The measures are used, as a case study, to assess the inter-temporal variations in the degree of integration of SAARC.     

European integration,productivity growth and real convergence: Evidence from the new member states

We estimate the determinants of labor productivity growth in 8 new European Union (EU) member states that joined the Union in 2004. Our focus is on the impact of globalization and EU integration efforts on labor productivity growth. Previous studies test the impact of trade using either exports or trade openness. We also test the impact of imports separately on labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 1995–2006 period, we find that globalization has mixed effects. FDI and exports improve productivity, but imports hurt it. Regarding domestic variables, we find that human capital is the most important source of labor productivity growth in the new member states. There is also considerable adjustment of labor productivity towards EU15 levels, indicating significant “catching up” and hence real convergence. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Evaluating Productivity Growth Measures in the EU

In this paper we evaluate the productivity growth of the member countries in the European Union (EU) before and after the enforcement of the Maastricht convergence criteria in 1992. Total factor productivity was measured by employing the growth-accounting approach and Tornqvist indices. The evaluation of productivity growth was performed by employing the non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in particular years and within three time periods. DEA was also used to evaluate the relative efficiency of EU members with respect to the convergence criteria with important implications for their economic integration. TFP growth was found to have contributed the most in the EU, while its share in the latest recessions was the smallest as compared to labor and capital share.     

以中国—东盟自由贸易区建成为契机,提升德宏沿边开放水平

中国—东盟自贸区通过扩大市场准入、消除贸易投资壁垒,实现双方经济一体化效益的共享。德宏位于连接东亚经济圈、东南亚经济圈、南亚经济圈的结合部,主要面对的是东盟成员缅甸。在中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中具有不可替代的地缘优势。中国—东盟自贸区的制度设计,为提升德宏沿边开放水平提供了机遇,为德宏地缘优势转化为贸易优势,贸易优势转化经济优势搭建了平台。     

基于“单国模式”引力模型的区域贸易协定效应分析——以中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应为例

区域贸易协定的成员国效应分析是国际贸易学的重要研究主题。本文在系统梳理广西与东盟间贸易状况的基础上,依托"单国模式"引力模型就中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应进行了实证分析,得出了贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应、广西参与自由贸易区建设尚有较大空间和潜力的结论。结合广西实际,本文提出了调整与东盟的贸易互补性和竞争性以扩大贸易创造效应、改善外贸结构以降低贸易转移效应、推进市场整合、扩大境外投资等政策建议。     

广西与缅甸货物贸易发展浅析——紧紧抓住中国-东盟自由贸易区即将全面建成的机遇

自中国-东盟自由贸易区开始建设以来，我国与缅甸的货物贸易取得了长足发展。相对于东盟老6国关税减让时间表，与其他新东盟3国一样，缅甸关税减让时间后延性与降幅窄小性特征明显，这种特征伴生于中国-东盟自由贸易区的建设过程，给广西的货物贸易发展带来诸多机遇与挑战。     

Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis

Motivated by the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, we examine saving-investment relationship in various subgroups of ASEAN to assess their capital market integration. The results from second generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence as well as estimates of long-run saving-retention rate provide some evidence of market integration in ASEAN. The analysis of short-run dynamics suggests that capital mobility in ASEAN during 1980–2014 appears similar to that in OECD countries during 1970–1999. More importantly, across different panel estimators and subgroups of membership, there is considerable heterogeneity among the member countries. The saving-investment association is very weak, thereby implying very high capital mobility, in more developed members such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei; the association is very strong, implying very low capital mobility, for much less developed members such as Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The results call for renewed effort to develop capital markets in less developed nations and integrate them with the rest of the membership in ASEAN. In this paper, we also address several major shortcomings of the original Feldstein-Horioka framework.     

运输服务贸易促进我国经济增长的实证研究

文章以当前我国运输服务贸易持续逆差这一现象为切入口。借助计量经济学的分析软件构建运输服务贸易与经济增长的计量模型,定量分析运输服务贸易与经济增长(GDP)的关系,实证结果表明运输服务贸易与经济增长有着长期的均衡关系与因果关系。