Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

通货膨胀幻觉对中国股市的影响分析

上海A股市价格波动无法用红利与无风险利率的变化来解释。通过实证分析发现,跟传统理论相反,中国股价跟通货膨胀呈现反向关系。其原因在于Fed模型的拥护者将E/P跟名义利率进行比较来判断股市估值是否合理。中国投资者中存在通货膨胀幻觉。通货膨胀幻觉假设在一定程度上能够解释上海A股市场价格变化,特别是该假设能解释1996-2001年的大牛市。     

Trends in international business thought and literature: One country,two currencies? Hong Kong's exchange-rate regime after 1997

A key factor in assessing the future of the Hong Kong dollar is whether China would, after 1997, take the drastic step of abolishing the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the Renminbi (RMB) as legal tender. While this possibility should not be discounted, our view is that a merger of the two currencies would only occur in the distant future when the RMB becomes fully convertible. This study argues that the status quo of the HK$-US$ link would be preserved at least until the turn of the century. A combination of factors, including the overriding need to maintain confidence and stability in Hong Kong, which is crucial for a smooth transition of sovereignty; the weak relationship between either imported or domestic-generated inflation and the exchange rate link; and the misconception that Hong Kong's export competitiveness has been undermined by an overvalued Hong Kong dollar would help to support the argument that other alternative regimes for the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate would not be feasible in the short run. These alternative regimes include changing to a floating rate     

Risks of deflation versus risks of excessive inflation in Europe

Economists are currently divided over the question of what represents a more immediate threat to the global economy — deflation or excessive inflation. Using stochastic simulations, this article extrapolates the likely inflation rates in individual European countries and the euro area as a whole. The results indicate that as the financial crisis continues to subside, policymakers should be vigilant about expeditiously rolling back the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented during the crisis.     

我国通货膨胀的国际影响因素分析——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证研究

全球金融危机爆发以来,美元持续贬值引起国际原材料价格上涨和国际资本流动扩大.在全球流动性泛滥的背景下,我国通货膨胀屡创新高.文章从美元贬值导致的国际原材料价格波动、国内外利率因素、人民币预期升值三个角度,分别结合国内经济增长,探讨了国际因素对我国通货膨胀的影响.研究发现,国内经济的过热增长是我国通货膨胀的主导因素,但外部冲击特别是国际原油价格对我国通货膨胀的影响也不容忽视.我国不完善的汇率和利率机制,推动了外部因素对我国通货膨胀的冲击,国际因素对我国工业领域通货膨胀的影响相对消费领域而言偏高.     

Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979

The good macroeconomic performance of the US economy since the early 1980s has sparked interest in determining how the Fed has conducted the monetary policy. One widely shared view is that actual policy has broadly been consistent empirically with Taylor-type policy rules in which the funds rate responds to actual or expected inflation and the level of the output gap. In particular, as shown in Mehra (2001), a policy rule in which the funds rate responds to expected inflation, the bond rate, and the level of the output gap predicts actual policy well. It is shown here that the growth version of this rule in which the funds rate responds to the growth rate of the output gap instead of its level predicts actual policy almost as well. Hence, uncertainty that exists in measuring the current level of the output gap may not have mattered much in the conduct of policy, in contrast to the view focused on level policy rules.     

Government Lending and Monetary Policy

The financial dimension of the current contraction has brought a historic expansion in government lending to financial market participants, mostly through an expanding array of Federal Reserve (Fed) initiatives. This contrasts with the Fed's typical response to recent recessions that has been limited to adjustments of the target Fed funds rate. Restrictions on credit supply and declines of creditworthiness have both contributed to the contraction in lending, although the latter cause has probably been underestimated relative to the former. Fed and other government lending programs have targeted particular sectors, altering the allocation of credit across markets. Also, targeted credit programs contribute to the moral hazard problem inherent in the provision of government-funded credit or guarantees. An alternative approach to monetary policy where the Fed funds target is essentially zero is purchasing Treasuries, which is likely to have little effect on the relative credit spreads on different financial instruments. However, given that targeted lending has taken place, it is critical that regulatory mechanisms be installed so that government regulation matches the scope of government support. Also, targeted lending by the Fed is in effect fiscal policy. Is this a legitimate role for a central bank, or should such lending be subject to legislative approval, with the Fed's role limited to monetary stability?     

Renminbi Undervaluation·China＇s Surplus. the US Trade Deficit

Introduction
On June 2I, 2010, in the run-up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, China announced that it would shift to a more flexible exchange rate policy. From mid- June to july 30 the yuan rose 0.8 percent against the dollar.     

From dollarisation to euroisation

In the past the dollar has been so dominant as an international currency that the term ‘dollarisation’ has become a synonym for currency substitution, i.e. the voluntary use of a foreign currency instead of the respective country's own legal tender. This article addresses the question as to whether the euro may be expected to partly replace the US currency in this function, focusing on the former's use as a substitution currency in countries on the periphery of the euro zone. Some policy conclusions are drawn for both the ‘euroised’ economies and Euroland.     

美元周期性波动对我国跨境资本流动的非对称效应研究

有效应对和防范跨境资本流动冲击，维护外汇市场稳定是贯彻落实习总书记“打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战”的重要举措。目前，美元已进入强周期，我国正面临着由强势美元引发的货币贬值、资本外流等风险，当前背景下研究美元周期性波动特征、区制划分及其对跨境资本流动的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于2006年10月至2018年6月的月度数据，运用理论模型和MSVAR模型分析美元周期性波动对我国跨境资本流动的非对称效应。研究表明，中美利差对跨境资本流动的影响存在非对称效应，当投资者不存在恐慌避险情绪时，利差的变化将不会引起大规模的跨国资本流动。美元指数对跨境资本流动的冲击效应具有一定的时滞性，美元升值将引发跨境资本流出，且冲击效应持续时间明显长于利差冲击。VIX指数和人民币汇率对跨境资本流动影响较弱，但呈现非对称性特征。加息和缩表后美元升值对资本外流的推动作用明显强于加息和缩表前，表明第三轮强周期下美元升值对我国跨境资本流动的影响更大。     

Minding our Ps and Qs: Exchange rates and foreign trade

Since early 1985, the dollar has been declining in the foreign exchange markets. An examination of interest rate patterns internationally suggests that the dollar's decline is not inflation induced. Taking the analysis one step further it is clear that Europe and Japan have had supply-side revolutions of their own. Therefore, the fall in the U.S. dollar appears to be the consequence of improved foreign economies. As such, the lower valued dollar will lead to improvements in the U.S. economy, especially in the tradable goods area. These improvements will not be made at the expense of the less tradable goods, however. The rich will get richer and so will the poor.     

The US Dollar and the Euro as International Currencies

For many decades the US dollar has remained unchallenged as the world’s dominant international currency. What is behind its persistent pre-eminence in the international monetary system and can this be expected to last? Could the euro rival or even surpass the dollar as the leading currency? If it did, what would be the consequences for Euroland?      

The case against price-level targeting

As the Fed begins to wrestle with how to stimulate growth in the next economic downturn in an environment of low interest rates, a number of possible changes in its policy framework are being entertained. One in particular that has gained considerable support is price-level targeting, based on the view that this approach would tend to move inflation and nominal interest rates up late in the business cycle, yielding more room for rate cuts when the downturn ensues. We outline the inherent difficulties involved in controlling the level of inflation under the current inflation-targeting regime. We then argue that requiring the Fed to meet the more stringent objective of a price-level target could introduce significantly greater volatility into output growth—potentially worsening economic downturns—than is the case under the current policy framework. We also consider a preferred course of action that adds a bit more flexibility to the current framework, at least for the near to the medium term, and how the Fed might deal with the next recession.     

Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability

Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of UK euro entry on macroeconomic stability. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the euro's instability against the dollar; by adopting a regional currency the UK imports this source of shocks, as well as losing its control of interest rates. The results are not highly sensitive to changes in assumptions about the degree of labour market flexibility, the use of fiscal policy, and increased convergence of monetary transmission.     

Canada’s Stem Cell Corporation: Aggregate Concerns and the Question of Public Trust

This paper examines one nascent entrepreneurial endeavour intended by Canada’s Stem Cell Network to catalyze the commercialization of stem cell research: the creation of a company called “Aggregate Therapeutics”. We argue that this initiative, in its current configuration, is likely to result in a breach of public trust owing to three inter-related concerns: conflicts of interest; corporate influence on the university research agenda; and the failure to provide some form of direct return for the public’s substantial tax dollar investment. These concerns are common to many efforts to commercialize academic science but are rendered particularly acute in this case given the therapeutic promise of stem cell research and the considerable number of resources related to stem cell research in Canada, which Aggregate Therapeutics is expected to pool. We do, however, believe that the company can be altered to guard against a violation of the public’s trust, and so we present concrete modifications to its structure, which we contend should be given immediate consideration. Matthew Herder is a candidate for the Master of the Science of Law (JSM) degree at Stanford University. Prior to undertaking his studies at Stanford, Matthew completed LLM and LLB degrees at Dalhousie University, clerked at the Federal Court of Canada and articled at McCarthy Tetrault LLP in Toronto, Ontario. Matthew is also a member of the Novel Tech Ethics research team at Dalhousie University. Jennifer Dyck Brian is a Ph.D. student in the Bioethics, Policy, and Law program at the Center for Biology & Society at Arizona State University. Previously, Jennifer worked as research assistant at the Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes at ASU, Wellesley College, and with the Novel Tech Ethics research team at Dalhousie University. Jennifer completed her undergraduate degree at the University of Western Ontario.     

The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap

Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today.     

Inequality,Inflation, and their Impact on China's Investment Environment in the 1990s and beyond

Inequality, inflation, and unemployment have become increasingly explosive problems in today's China. In conjunction with an analysis of the spatial pattern of inflation, this paper examines the current trend of China's spatial disparities, in terms of economic output, real consumption, and real income, within inter-provincial, inter-regional and urban-rural framework. This paper also investigates the combined effect of the current high rate of inflation and spatial disparity on China's investment and business environment in the 1990s. Findings of this paper suggest that inter-regional inequalities in economic development and income distribution, especially since 1990, have been accelerated/exacerbated by high inflation, which appears to hit the poorer areas disproportionally. Given the reinforcement of disparity and inflation and the current upsurges of rampant localism, the investment and business environment of China in the 1990s, in terms of political and social unrest and economic profitability, will be severely undermined and will, therefore, become increasing uncertain. It is likely that this trend will extend beyond the millenium and last at least until the early 2000s.     

Monetary policy and commodity price shocks

Against the background of the dramatic changes in the prices of oil and other raw materials in the recent past, this paper analyses the effects of commodity price shocks in a New Keynesian model. The focus is on the central bank’s choice of inflation target and the degree of real wage rigidity. It turns out that using core inflation rather than headline inflation is the superior strategy. Targeting expected headline inflation, as practised by most central banks, is a viable practical alternative to the core inflation target.     

‘New economics’?

The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called ‘New Economics’, whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth and inflation has fundamentally changed. The following article tests this thesis against current data for the USA.     

The Changing Dynamics of Inflation

Inflation in the United States and elsewhere has become lower and more stable over the past two decades. It is likely that monetary policy has played an important role in this change in inflation dynamics by creating expectations of stability. This paper traces the evolution of the role of expectations in thinking about inflation, the supporting evidence over the past two decades, and role of central banks in influencing expectations. Increased global integration has magnified these effects. However, the importance of factors other than monetary policy implies that policymakers must consider a wide range of information before acting. Moreover, expectations of inflation stability cannot be taken for granted; and policymakers must be vigilant against complacency. JEL Classification E31, E58