实物期权与公共项目外部价值

公共项目的衍生投资机会可视为平台型增值期权,该期权能使社会资产增值,确定其价值的过程实质是将公共项目的"效益计算"转换为"资产价值计量"过程,这一转化可在一定程度上解决困扰的公共项目外部效益评价问题.     

人力资本价值的实物期权分析

实物期权是在不确定条件下。与金融期权类似的实物资产投资的选择权。实物期权理论是管理不确定性与风险的重要工具，它是关于实物资产的合约，期权所有者能延迟选择是否对这些资产进一步投资，使资产贬值的风险最小化和资产升值的机会最大化，并因此保持实物资产收益的稳定。实物期权方法适合于投资周期长、投资成本高、投资风险大的投资决策。根据实物期权定价模型，可以较为准确地估算决策时所面临的机会或灵活性（期权），而且还可以根据这些机会或灵活性的因素（或杠杆）来主动调节、控制或增加机会或灵活性的价值，以尽可能降低风险，改善投资的战略决策。     

并式复合实物期权定价方法研究

本文提出新的复合实物期权分类方法,认为复合实物期权是并式复合实物期权和串式复合实物期权的集合,而或式复合实物期权和和式复合实物期权又是并式复合实物期权的元素,同时它们又都是由单个实物期权构成的.并对其中的并式复合实物期权定价方法进行了详细的阐述,最后还用实例对这种方法进行了说明.     

油气开发项目停启灵活性实物期权价值评估研究

通过对油气勘探项目开发阶段具有的停启期权性质的研究,在现有定价模型基础上,提出了与实际结合更紧密,操作更可行的方法,获得类似于经典欧式看涨期权定价偏微分方程,从而解决了油气开发项目中所具有的停启期权的灵活性价值评估问题。     

基于实物期权PPP养老机构项目投资价值评估

政府和社会资本通过PPP模式合作养老项目建设,是我国机构养老建设的一种主要模式。对社会资本而言,科学有效地评估项目的投资价值是首要解决的问题。本文基于实物期权理论,考虑了PPP养老项目建设运营期间的延迟期权和扩张期权,建立二叉树期权模型计算项目的投资价值。结合案例分析,表明该模型具有较好的适用性和有效性,可为PPP养老机构项目的投资价值评估提供参考。     

投资项目决策实物期权方法研究进展

针对项目决策的特点和NPV的缺陷,追溯期权理论的演进,分析了期权理论的核心思想和理论基础,回顾了国内外的研究现状,总结了实物期权的基本假设、分类和建模方法,比较了实物期权分析与其他传统工具,本文阐述了实物期权与投资项目决策的关系,对实物期权的特性和定价问题进行了探讨,指出实物期权的适用性;重点讨论实物期权的特点、用途和实物期权在投资项目决策中的实际应用;最后综述实物期权的理论与应用研究进展,评述与展望研究现状和进一步的研究方向,并指出未来研究前景.     

基于实物期权方法的煤层气项目延迟投资决策研究

煤层气项目开发的过程中伴随着大量的随机因素,导致了项目开发的高度风险性和不确定性,而传统的投资决策方法(例DcF法)却忽略了项目所处环境的不确定性和管理灵活性所带来的投资机会价值.本文通过引入实物期权方法对煤层气项目的期权特性进行了分析,构建了基于延迟策略的煤层气项目投资决策模型,并通过案例分析说明了模型的应用,从而为煤层气项目开发的投资决策提供新的思路和方法.     

基于实物期权的亏损企业股权价值评估方法

对于亏损企业股权价值的评估是处置这些不良资产的重要前提。传统股权评估方法在评估亏损企业股权时存在诸多局限。因此有必要寻找一个更为合理的评估方法。本文用期权方法来看待和评估亏损企业的股权价值,希望能有助于对亏损企业股权价值的评估。     

模糊实物期权方法在PPP项目价值评估中的应用

在投资、建设、运营和移交的过程中,PPP项目价值是利益各方关注的首要问题.在PPP项目全寿命期周期内,市场环境、政策以及决策者本身带来的不确定性都可能影响项目的价值,此类价值很难通过传统的评价方法计算,而需要借助实物期权的思想来获得.本文在相关研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊实物期权的PPP项目价值评估一般步骤:资料收集与整理、项目价值分析、实物期权界定与分析、项目价值计算、敏感性分析、得出结论.然后,推导出模糊实物期权价值计算模型,并应用于香港迪斯尼乐园二期项目实物期权价值评估,得出项目价值范围.最后对模型进行讨论,结果分析表明该项目价值受资产现值影响最大,建设、运营成本和建设时间次之.     

实物期权在房地产投资决策中应用研究

房地产项目投资具有不可逆性、高度不确定性和管理的灵活性,运用传统的净现值法不能挖掘出项目投资的这些性质所带来的价值,而应用实物期权方法进行房地产投资决策研究,不仅考虑到了房地产投资的不确定性,还体现了投资决策者的柔性管理和战略投资的价值.文章分析了传统净现值法的一些不足,介绍了实物期权的基本理论,并采用了B-S期权定价模型对房地产投资决策过程中蕴含的增长期权进行了案例分析,使得房地产投资决策更加科学合理.     

油气资源勘探开发项目的期权特征及决策方法

石油价格的波动、油气资源储量资产的变化等不确定性赋予了油气勘探开发项目典型的实物期权特征,从而为石油公司带来了相机抉择的期权价值。油气勘控开发项目可有两种期权决策方法,一是对于勘探项目,将B-S期权定价模型中的五个变量提炼为两个,作寿勘探项目投资决策的二维空间的期权准则;二是对于开发项目,采甩风险中性定价方法的二叉树分析方法进行开发时机的决策分析。     

Demand Uncertainty,Development Timing and Leasehold Land Valuation: Empirical Testing of Real Options in Residential Real Estate Development

This article develops and tests a long‐dated American call option pricing model for valuing development land under leasehold. We analyze and test option values in ten detailed Hong Kong cases involving purchase, holding, converting and developing land. We also test for optimal exercise of long‐dated American calls using processes based on the optimal trigger ratio feature of the perpetual American call option model. Generally, the empirical results confirm presence of a positive and nontrivial option premium (mean +5.274%) in the cases, and that developers appear to delay exercise to the point predicted by the real options model.     

基于中国市场的房地产期权研究

面对日渐繁荣的中国房地产市场,房价涨幅过快、过高已经是一个不容回避的问题。房地产期权作为一种创新型投资理财工具,在欧美和亚洲金融衍生品市场几乎完全空白,能够有效对冲房价过快上涨的风险,改变中国购房者传统购房观念,间接缓解房地产价格过快上涨的压力。本文基于中国市场对以房地产价格为标的物的期权产品进行研究,以西安市房地产市场为例进行模拟分析,结果表明,房地产期权可以满足普通购房者对冲房价过快上涨的避险需求,转变传统购房观念,缓解短期购房压力,降低房地产市场的整体风险,在一定程度上促进房地产市场平稳有序的发展,具有十分显著的现实应用价值。     

Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets

This article derives a closed-form solution for an equilibrium real options exercise model with stochastic revenues and costs for monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly and competitive markets. Our model also allows one option holder to have a greater production capacity than others. Under a monopolistic environment we find that the optimal option exercise strategy in real estate markets is dramatically opposite to that in a financial (warrant) market, indicating the importance of paying attention to the institutional details of the underlying market when analyzing option exercise strategies. Our model can be generalized to the pricing of convertible securities and capital investment decisions involving both stochastic revenues and costs under different types of market structures.     

基于消费力角度的商业地产项目规模定位研究

在商业地产项目定位中,项目规模的定位直接关系到资本的运作效率和开发商与投资商的利润率。文章在商圈理论的基础上,立足消费者的消费力角度,通过一个具体的定量模型来确定商业地产项目的规模。模型的创新之处在于加进了关系消费得以实现的渗透率概念并提出了其计算公式,这大大提高了模型计算结果的实用性和科学性。提出了确定商业地产项目规模的步骤,并在商圈理论的背景下,提出了商业地产项目规模定位区间的新观点。     

Capital Asset Pricing and Real Estate Valuation*

This paper examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model with respect to its implications for real estate investment analysis and appraisal. The derivation of the CAPM, and theoretical problems with it, are discussed, along with its empirical validation. The similarities and differences between real estate and securities markets are evaluated. Alternative models to the CAPM are presented, followed by the conclusions.     

Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation

This paper formalizes certain aspects of the sales comparison approach to valuation that heretofore have been quite ad hoc. Specifically, it applies statistical theory to decisions about how many comparables to select, what the criteria for comparable selection should be, and how the proper weights for each adjusted value estimate can be determined such that the final value estimate is both unbiased and of minimum variance. Several results are derived that run counter to conventional practice; for example, it may not always be optimal to consider first the "best" comparables because of a lack of independence among their adjusted value estimates. Furthermore, it is always desirable to consider more comparables (regardless of how "bad") so long as their adjusted value estimates are optimally weighted in the final value estimate. Finally, weights usually selected for "inferior" comparables are typically too small. A final exercise empirically applies the methodology to a sample of sales.     

战略投资决策中实物期权与情景分析的整合研究

随着市场经济的发展,企业面临着愈来愈多的不确定性,如何利用这些不确定性进行战略投资,就成为企业成败的关键。文章针对实物期权、情景分析两种方法的特点,将他们整合在一起来分析投资决策,形成一个可以指导企业进行战略投资决策的总体方法。     

Valuation of Learning Options in Software Development Under Private and Market Risk

Commercial software development is an inherently uncertain activity. Private risk is high, schedule and cost overruns are common, and market success is elusive. Such circumstances call for a disciplined project evaluation approach. This paper addresses the use of market and earned value management data in assessing the economic value of commercial software development projects that are simultaneously subject to schedule, development cost, and market risk. The assessment is based on real options analysis, a financial valuation technique that can tackle dynamic investment decisions under uncertainty. The paper demonstrates the application of real options analysis to a development scenario that consists of two consecutive stages: a mandatory prototyping stage and an optional full-development stage. The full-development stage is undertaken only if the prototype is successful and the market outlook is sufficiently positive at the end of the prototyping stage, thus giving the full-development stage the flavor of an option. The project's staged design increases its value. Real options analyses capture the extra value due to optionality.