Integration in European coal markets, 1833–1913†

This article analyses coal market integration in Europe over the long nineteenth century. The market integration of coal, a key commodity associated with the industrial revolution, is an aspect of European economic history that has received little attention. The literature on the evolution of markets has concentrated on agricultural products, mostly cereals. This article examines intra- and international market integration in the principal coal-producing countries, Britain, Germany, France, and Belgium; and adds three main consuming southern European countries to the analysis of the international market. It provides new evidence on prices, as well as trade, and uses a straightforward approach to address coal price behaviour. Despite shocks, clear trends toward integration in both domestic and international markets can be observed, even if by one of our measures the latter started at a later date. Processes of market integration, however, seemed to slow from the end of the nineteenth century. Explanations are offered as to the causes of the extent and timing of integrations: reductions, mainly, in transportation costs, but also in information costs, and, in the international market, protectionism. The influence of cartels, on the other hand, may have been limited, particularly in the international market.     

国际工程项目投标商务报价探讨

近几年来,随着国内经济的快速发展,全球经济一体化的国际市场,国内与国际市场快速接轨,许多国内享有一定声誉的大公司,在稳定国内市场业务的同时,逐步跻身国际市场,开拓新的市场领域,期望在国际市场占有一席之地。本文通过参与"塔吉克斯坦金矿采选工程"投标项目,针对国际工程投标模式进行系统的分析,具体阐述国际工程投标项目商务报价直接费用构成,及投标商务报价中应注意的几点问题,为类似国际工程提供一些参考。     

后金融危机时期中国股市的国际地位——基于非线性视角的股市联动网络分析

后金融危机时期全球股市一体化程度不断提高,全面认识中国股市的国际地位对于揭示国际股市一体化联动中的传导机制,防范和应对国际金融风险冲击具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。文章应用非线性格兰杰因果检验方法和社会网络分析方法,对金砖国家和七国集团股市收益率和波动率的联动关系及其联动网络结构进行分析,揭示出中国在国际股市联动中的地位对传导关系的控制方式,定量分析出事件冲击下中国股市与国际股市之间的交互影响。研究发现：（1）国际股市收益率和波动率联动网络呈现出稳定的非线性联动关系网络结构,受其影响各国股市收益之间存在互惠性,而波动之间则存在传染性;（2）在收益率联动网络中,中国股市的作用和地位已与英国相当,远高于其他金砖国家,正逐渐由"从属地位"转向"中心地位";（3）在波动率联动网络中,中国股市是造成国际股市风险交叉影响的重要"桥梁"。综上而言,当前中国股市表现出"高风险低收益"的市场特征;（4）中国对国际股市的影响具有典型的"地缘特征",将网络中心国家股市的利好传递给地缘临近国家股市;（5）波动率联动网络中初始冲击强度较大的国家,往往是对中国股市持续大规模产生冲击的国家;（6）相比较国际股市调整波动冲击的时间而言,中国股市调整时间较短,这表明后金融危机时代中国致力于股市的一系列改革举措取得了显著成效。     

Why floating exchange rates fall: A reconsideration of the liquidity trap

In the international capital market, interest rates would seem to be natural shock absorbers for balancing currency risk associated with expected inflation or differential taxation. Under a floating exchange rate, however, short-term interest rates in each national money market behave as if caught in a liquidity trap. The problem arises because the domains for national monetary circulation remain somewhat disjoint even though the bond market is fully integrated internationally. The national rate of interest is ncapable of equilibriating the domestic money market on the one hand and the international bond market on the other. The result is excessively high exchange-rate volatility that distorts the flow of international commodity trade and causes cycles of inflation and deflation in open economies.     

Efficiency vs. equity as China's national carbon market meets provincial electricity markets

Emissions reduction in the electricity sector is critical in achieving China's carbon neutrality target. While a national carbon trading market that covers the electricity sector has been established, its effectiveness depends on how this sector evolves into being a more integrated market. This study evaluated the impact of China's electricity market integration on the cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing. An integrated (regional electricity market) and a segmented (provincial electricity market) market scenario were used to identify possible reform paths going forward. Using high-frequency datasets of the five southern provinces in 2018, we assessed the impact of electricity market integration on the abatement potential and cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing. We found that carbon prices need to be as high as 200 yuan/ton to begin achieving overall carbon reduction. In this context, the regional market is more cost-effective in reducing emissions than the provincial one, as the abatement costs are saved by around 60% compared to the latter under the same emission reduction targets. However, the regional market may also raise potential equity issues. The provincial-level distribution of carbon emission reductions, as well as the withdrawal of coal power, are more concentrated in the regional market than in the provincial one, which indicates an inequitable social-economic-environmental impacts of market integration. Our research findings would help to improve policymakers' understanding of the interaction between carbon pricing and electricity market reforms. This would then assist them in coordinating an effective design of both the carbon and electricity markets, in addition to supporting China's carbon neutrality target.     

欧洲干涉主义的多角度透视

在国际关系里,欧洲和美国代表着西方资本主义国家的主要力量,多数国际干涉行为均由它们发动和实施。但与美国比较,欧洲人的干涉主义更加复杂也更难辨识。作者由世界近代史出发,着重当代国际政治现实,从六个侧面剖析了欧洲人在国际事务中采取强势干涉主义的内在原因。欧洲干涉主义不是单一层面的现象,也无法简单用对、错、好、坏加以判别;作为一种立体影像,欧洲的干涉主义表达着一种有广泛社会基础的利益、方式和共识,它同时隐含着军事-政治强权、工业和市场能量、现代文明传播、国际规范制定、全球话语创新、地区整合示范等方面的内涵。这些方面既有所区别,又相互增强,构成不可分离的整体。作者不仅提示了看待欧洲人国际角色的必要与难度,同时探索了自己的研究路径,用层层递进的分析框架和大量有说服力的事实,廓清了对欧洲干涉主义研究的一种新的综合视角。     

Feeding the British: convergence and market efficiency in the nineteenth-century grain trade

This paper traces the evolution of the international market for wheat, from an emerging market structure after the repeal of the corn laws to a mature market characterized by efficient arbitrage after the introduction of the transatlantic telegraph and the growth of trade. Efficiency is documented using traditional price gap accounting as well as error correction modelling. Markets which traded directly with each other as well as markets which did not trade with each other were integrated. The traditional bilateral focus in market integration studies has been extended to a multivariate approach, which generates new insights into the pattern of diffusion of price shocks in the international economy. Shocks in the major importing nation, Britain, dominated in the emerging market phase, while shocks in the major exporting economy, the United States, dominated international price movements at the end of the nineteenth century.     

The Link between Institutional and Economic Integration: Insights for Latin America from the European Experience

The European experience illustrates that institutional integration interacts with economic integration at the regional level. In this paper we ask how economic and institutional integration are linked and whether there is a causal link between the two. We present an original indicator of institutional integration and study how it developed vis-à-vis diverse measures of economic integration. In particular, we ask what insights can be drawn from the European process of regional integration, which started in the 1950s, for regional integration in Latin America today. We find that Latin America is currently less economically integrated not only than the European Union today, but for certain economic variables even than the European Union in the 1960s. A VAR analysis illustrates that the link between institutional and economic integration has worked both ways throughout the European experience. There is also evidence that stronger institutional integration has indeed led to deeper economic integration.     

新疆国际入境旅游客源市场的SSM分析

本文选取新疆国际入境旅游客源市场2002年至2006年的数据,以全国国际入境旅游市场为参照系,运用区域经济分析中的偏离一份额分析法,对新疆国际入境旅游客源市场进行了分析。结果表明：与全国比较,新疆国际入境旅游客源市场总体发展缓慢,竞争力弱化趋势明显,但市场结构相对合理,效果较好。2006年的客源市场比重与2002年相比,俄罗斯、美国、日本、澳大利亚等客源市场重要程度有所下降,但饿罗斯市场仍然占据榜首;而韩国、德国、法国、加拿大等客源市场重要程度有所上升,其中,韩国市场上升最快,不仅是主要的客源市场,而且是新疆国际旅游经济的增长点,发展前景广阔;其余客源市场则相对变化不大,趋于相对稳定状态。     

全球化语境下的欧洲化移民治理困境

全球化造就了大批国际移民并加剧了移民问题。欧洲一体化过程作为经济全球化的微缩样本,展示了移民问题在超国家治理方面的经验和智慧,进一步显示了非政府组织和公民社会参与的必要性。欧盟移民问题已经成为涉及政治、经济、文化、民族、宗教和社会的复杂问题。由移民所引发的混乱正在打破民族地域界限向全球扩散,形成了非传统安全对传统主权的拆解,需要一种崭新的跨国主义治理模式以强化其有效性。     

Lead markets, innovation differentials and growth

This article suggests that the specialization of countries in international trade is determined by the lead-lag market pattern of national markets. Many internationally successful innovations have been adopted first in one country while other countries initially either preferred other designs or an established product. A model for the international diffusion of innovations is presented in which nationally preferred innovation designs compete to become a globally dominant design. In this model, there are country-specific market attributes that increase the likelihood that the choice a country makes among alternative technologies is followed around the world. It is argued that technological knowledge gaps are not the origin of an international competitive advantage. Instead, a country gains a competitive advantage because a specific innovation design was adopted earlier than in any other country. This gives local firms a head start in producing, gathering marketing intelligence and securing the property rights of a globally successful innovation. In countries with lag market characteristics, domestic innovations are less likely to get adopted worldwide. Lag markets often switch from a domestic innovation design to a foreign innovation design, which increases imports. The lead-lag market explanation of trade specialization has implications for national policies. In this model domestic innovations do not always foster exports; idiosyncratic innovations induced by lag market contexts can hamper the export chances of local firms and in the end lead to an increase in imports. It is suggested that in order to increase exports, national policies have to distinguish between a domestic lead and lag market context in each industry. While in a lead market context, traditional policy instruments that enhance the rate of innovations are effective, in a lag market situation national follower strategies are more appropriate.     

The Role of Small Towns in the Local Economy and Some Implications for Development Policy

Over recent years, socio-economic restructuring has tended to undermine the traditional functions of small rural towns. Empirical evidence also suggests that significant proportions of economic transactions are carried out through the regional, national and international economy. Establishing the degree to which a settlement is integrated into its locality provides an indication of its contemporary functions and potential role in rural development. In this paper, reliable measures of economic linkages are developed, and it is shown that the strength of local integration is a function of the existing economic structure of the town as well as its proximity to metropolitan centres.     

Private transnational governance in the heyday of the nation‐state: the Council of European Industrial Federations (CEIF)1

This article examines an example of private transnational governance in the first decades after the Second World War: the Council of European Industrial Federations (CEIF), created in 1949 by the peak‐level trade associations in western Europe. Based on this case, the article takes issue with two predominant views in the current literature: a view that sees the European integration process, at least in its early stages, as driven largely by nation‐states and political agendas; and another view, widespread among business and economic historians, that contacts between business associations at that time served the main purpose of re‐establishing international cartels. The CEIF actually performed a wide variety of functions: it represented organized business at international events and in organizations, acted as a multilateral arena for the exchange of information and for building trust among the businesspeople of various European countries, and, from 1958 onwards, helped bridge the divide between those inside and those outside the Common Market. On occasions, for example, in the case of export incentives, it even managed to forge a consensus for policy action when national governments were unable to agree.     

A Comparison of Market Integration in Nineteenth‐Century China and Japan

This paper performs a cointegration analysis using an Error Correction Model (ECM) on annual rice prices to measure and compare market integration in China and Japan during the nineteenth century. We find markets in Japan were more integrated than in China at both the regional and national levels during the period. Moreover, market integration in Japan improved during industrialisation. These findings support the view that a well‐integrated market is a cause as well as a result of economic growth.     

Wages and prices in England in the later Middle Ages

Abstract

In recent years the economic development of the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries has been the subject of much attention in international historical research. The results of local and of national studies are now for the first time being discussed within their European framework.¹     

Economic Integration and Union Power

The standard utility-maximizing model of the trade union in a closed economy is reformulated for an environment where economic integration is under way or expected to occur soon. In the (European) realistic setting of union-dominated labor markets, domestic wages are shown to be affected by labor market developments abroad. This article provides an explanation of the international transmission of inflation and disinflation     

Are “new” and “old” EU members becoming more financially integrated? A threshold cointegration analysis

We assess the degree of financial integration for a selected number of “new” EU member states with Germany. The analysis is performed using a threshold vector error-correction (TVECM) model with fixed rolling window. By employing this methodology we are able to evaluate the degree and dynamics of transaction costs resulting from various market imperfections. TVECM model is applied on interest rate data from different segments of financial markets covering the 1994–2006 period. The hypothesis we test is to what extent European integration tendencies resulted in a more efficient and integrated financial markets. Our findings support the gradual integration hypothesis.     

欧盟债券市场的发展与一体化进程——基于结构性VAR模型的实证分析

欧洲经济货币联盟建立以来,欧盟债券市场发展迅猛,其一体化进程也取得了令人瞩目的成就。本文通过结构性VAR模型对欧盟债券市场的一体化进行实证分析,在肯定其成果的同时,发现各成员国的债券市场在一体化的进程中存在着较为明显的失衡现象。这种现象与各成员国在相关法律环境、制度安排及基础设施建设等方面存在差异是密切相关的。     

International spillover effects of sectoral tax differentiation in unionized economies

Sectoral tax differentiation has in recent years appeared onthe agenda in European policy discussions concerning unemployment.The member countries of the European Union are allowed to reducethe value added tax rates on goods and services that are particularlylabour intensive and price elastic. This paper provides a theoreticalanalysis of the international repercussions of such policies.We develop a two-country and two-sector model with monopolisticcompetition in the goods market and wage bargaining in the labourmarket. Policy externalities operate through the endogenouslydetermined terms of trade. We examine how national and supranationalcommodity tax policies affect sectoral and total employmentand characterize optimal commodity taxes with and without internationalpolicy cooperation. Some rough estimates of the welfare gainsfrom policy coordination are also presented, using a calibratedversion of the model.     

欧盟能源一体化战略探析

欧盟的能源一体化战略着力于对内完善欧洲能源内部市场和统一内部标准,对外进行对外能源对话与发展战略合作伙伴关系,并采取了一些前瞻性的措施,以便通过"缓慢的能源市场一体化",逐步建立一个以欧盟为中心的跨国能源大市场。虽然能源一体化取得了巨大成就,但也存在许多阻碍,例如欧盟各成员国在电力和天然气市场的竞争政策差异以及欧盟制度因素对能源市场一体化的阻碍。