全流通背景下A股IPO抑价研究

中国A股IPO抑价率远远高于国外成熟市场平均水平,也大大高于其他新兴市场的IPO抑价水平。本文以2005年6月至2008年8月中国A股市场发行的259家新股为研究对象,实证分析了"赢者诅咒"假说和"投资者情绪假说"解释A股IPO抑价的适用性。本文研究发现,经典文献中关于IPO抑价的"赢者诅咒"假说基本上不能解释中国A股IPO抑价现象,而二级市场的乐观情绪和新股投机是决定IPO抑价的重要因素。     

我国股市IPO抑价构成研究北大核心CSSCI

本文基于适应性市场假说理论,根据新股上市后三年之内相对于市场基准指数的表现数据,估算IPO抑价中二级市场溢价水平,由此探索一种新的IPO抑价构成分解方法,并运用2009—2017年间我国A股市场1883只股票发行及交易数据进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)A股市场IPO高抑价既包含一级市场抑价,也包含二级市场溢价。(2)2009—2012年,新股二级市场平均溢价为12.21%,对IPO抑价的贡献约为34%,其余为一级市场抑价的贡献。(3)2014—2017年,新股二级市场平均溢价为67.62%,对IPO抑价的贡献约为21%,一级市场平均抑价为254.82%,对IPO抑价的贡献约为79%。总体来看,除2009—2012年间上证主板市场或该期间市场处于熊市状态外,一级市场抑价是我国A股IPO高抑价的主要原因,特别是2014—2017年,一级市场抑价的程度更加明显。     

新股投资模式探究——基于新股长期市场表现的实证研究

本文选取2007年、2008年、2010年沪深两市527个A股IPO样本,计算不同时期IPO的等权平均、流通市值加权平均超常收益率,评价IPO的长期市场表现,从而对新股的投资决策给予建议。     

A股、H股新股初始收益率比较研究

本文借鉴IPO已有的研究成果，分别对上海A股、香港H股的新股初始收益率进行了实证研究，探讨了企业选择A股或H股发行上市所导致的两个市场的不同反应及其真正动因。实证结果表明，上海A股市场较香港H股市场具有更高的新股初始收益率，但呈逐年递减趋势；A股市场的新股初始收益率与中签率、发行价、上市首日开盘价、上市首日换手率显著相关，而H股市场的新股初始收益率则与净利润增长率、香港恒生指数显著相关。     

A股与B股跨市场羊群效应:基于CCK模型的实证检验

各金融市场之间关联度越来越大,我国A股、B股市场的羊群效应亦可能相互传导。在学者们对金融市场羊群效应的研究基础上,进一步说明A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的产生机理,构建跨市场CCK模型以检验A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的存在性和不同市场条件下跨市场羊群效应的非对称性。实证检验发现,短期内跨市场羊群效应普遍存在;并且在市场收益率高、交易量大、波动性强时,跨市场羊群效应更加显著。     

“双重上市”公司A、H股价格差异的因素研究

本文基于动态面板数据模型,全面检验了影响双重上市公司A、H股价格差异的因素,并实证检验了股权分置改革后QDII、“港股直通车”等政策对A、H股价差的影响。实证结果表明：双重上市公司A、H股价格比在样本考察期内虽然存在波动,但总体上呈上升趋势。需求差异假说和流动性假说对A、H股价差具有较强的解释能力,香港市场超额收益水平的变化会对A、H股价差产生重要影响。股权分置改革后出台的相关政策中,“港股直通车”对A、H股价差有显著影响,但QDII政策的影响并不显著。     

普华永道预测：2014年A股IPO数量有望接近历史最高水平

2014年1月2日，普华永道举行2014年IPO市场展望新闻发布会。预计2014年A股IPO市场相比2012年将再现生机，蓬勃发展，全年A股IPO数量有望接近历史最高水平，超过300宗．融资规模可达2500亿人民币     

A股IPO高抑价的成因及改革建议

新股IPO抑价问题普遍存在于各国市场,而A股市场上IPO抑价率历史上远高于其他国家,本文通过对中国新股发行定价机制的回顾解释历史上IPO高抑价的成因,其分别来自于一级市场和二级市场的定价偏差。并且在分析A股IPO抑价独特性的前提下,提出了针对中国现实情况的政策改革建议,以使我国证券市场在未来能够健康发展。     

我国IPO长期市场表现的实证研究——基于超常收益率不同测度方法的比较分析

本文选取1995年1月至2000年12月沪深两市774个A股IPO样本,计算IPO的等权平均、流通市值加权平均和总市值加权平均收益率,并使用不同的市场指数及配比股票组合的收益率加以调整来评价IPO的长期市场表现。经过事件时间和日历时间的实证研究发现:(1)我国IPO在上市后3年内总体上表现出长期强势。(2)IPO长期超常收益率对使用何种参照指标的收益率来调整以及使用何种加权平均方法很敏感。CAR和日历时间研究的结果更明显地表明我国IPO存在长期强势特征,而且使用市值加权平均方法计算的正超常收益率更为显著。(3)Fama-French三因素模型和CAPM模型回归的截距项都表明我国IPO存在正的长期超常收益率。     

A股IPO高抑价的成因及改革建议

新股IPO抑价问题普遍存在于各国市场,而A股市场上IPO抑价率历史上远高于其他国家,本文通过对中国新股发行定价机制的回顾解释历史上IPO高抑价的成因,其分别来自于一级市场和二级市场的定价偏差.并且在分析A股IPO抑价独特性的前提下,提出了针对中国现实情况的政策改革建议,以使我国证券市场在未来能够健康发展.     

Narcissistic managers and IPO underpricing

Using hand-collected data on the signature size of managers in Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) from 2007 to 2019 as a proxy for managerial narcissism, we examine how IPOs with narcissistic managers (narcissistic IPOs) affect IPO underpricing. The findings suggest that narcissistic IPOs have higher underpricing than non-narcissistic IPOs. Specifically, we find that on average, a narcissistic IPO exhibits approximately 11.3% higher underpricing than a median IPO firm. Our results are robust to alternative metrics of narcissism and underpricing after controlling for endogeneity. Additional analyses suggest that narcissistic IPOs are more likely to engage in earnings management than non-narcissistic IPOs. The former exhibits excessive risk-taking behavior, gauged by earnings volatility pre-IPO and a higher beta post-IPO. In the cross-sectional analyses, we document that the impact of managerial narcissism on IPO underpricing is more salient for IPOs facing unsophisticated investors, high market sentiment, or poor corporate governance.     

IPO first‐day returns: Skewness preference,investor sentiment and uncertainty underlying factors

In this paper, we investigate the initial public offering (IPO) first-day returns. Our focus is to examine the irrational component of the agent behavior towards IPO lotteries. Based on 234 French IPOs performed between 2002 and 2012, we find that IPOs with high initial returns have higher idiosyncratic skewness, turnover and momentum. This finding provides empirical evidence for investors' preference for stocks with lottery-like features and investor sentiment. In addition, we show that the skewness preference and the investor sentiment effect are stronger during periods of favorable market conditions. Our results are robust to the integration of uncertainty underlying factors.     

The world cup in football and the US IPO market

We document that US IPOs that take place during a world cup in football (soccer), compared to IPOs before or after, exhibit 9% lower underpricing and 6% lower price adjustment. IPOs during world cups receive less attention from foreign investors and exhibit significantly higher long-run returns. Our results are robust to excluding the IPO bubble period of 1999 and 2000, including only listings during summer months, controlling for overall market sentiment and market conditions, and to using various matched samples of non-world cup IPOs. Firm characteristics of world cup IPOs are indistinguishable from those of non-world cup IPOs, suggesting that selection is not driving the results. Consistent with prior studies showing that world cups affect market sentiment, we show that this extends to US IPOs, where lower sentiment, driven by foreign investors, leads to reduced investor attention and lower valuations.     

Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?

By IPO market regime, I decompose the effect of revealed private information on the initial return of IPOs (initial public offerings) into adjusted and unadjusted private information and find (i) investment banks partially adjust the offer price in return for revealed private information in all but the non‐hot IPO market; (ii) the economic importance of private information associated with IPOs (and hence agency costs) is procyclical; and (iii) industry information spillovers between IPOs occur only in the hot and very‐hot IPO markets.     

IPO Market Timing

I develop a model of information spillovers in initial publicofferings (IPOs). The outcomes of pioneers’ IPOs reflectparticipating investors’ private information on commonvaluation factors. This makes the pricing of subsequent issuesrelatively easier and attracts more firms to the IPO market.I show that IPO market timing by the followers emerges as anequilibrium clustering pattern. High offer price realizationsfor pioneers’ IPOs better reflect investors’ privateinformation and trigger a larger number of subsequent IPOs thanlow offer price realizations do. This asymmetry in the spillovereffect is more pronounced early on in a hot market. The modelprovides an explanation for recent empirical findings that illustratethe high sensitivity of going public decision to IPO marketconditions.     

The Wealth Effect of Demutualization: Evidence From the U.S. Property-Liability and Life Insurance Industries

This study examines the wealth effect of demutualization initial public offerings (IPOs) by investigating underpricing and postconversion long‐run stock performance. Our results suggest that there is more “money left on the table” for demutualized insurers than for non‐demutualized insurers. We show that higher underpricing for demutualized firms can be explained by greater market demand, market sentiment, and the size of the offering. Further, contrary to previous research reporting an average underperformance of industrial IPOs, we show that demutualization IPOs outperform non‐IPO firms with comparable size and book‐to‐market ratios and non‐demutualized insurers. We present evidence that the outperformance in stock returns is mainly attributable to improvement in post‐demutualization operating performance and demand at the time of the IPOs. The combined results of underpricing and long‐term performance suggest that the wealth of policyholders who choose stock rather than cash or policy credits is not harmed by demutualization. Stockholders who purchase demutualized company shares either during or after the IPO have earned superior returns. Our findings are consistent with the efficiency improvement hypothesis.     

IPO Pricing in “Hot” Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?

This paper explores the impact of investor sentiment on IPO pricing. Using a model in which the aftermarket price of IPO shares depends on the information about the intrinsic value of the company and investor sentiment, I show that IPOs can be overpriced and still exhibit positive initial return. A sample of recent French offerings with a fraction of the shares reserved for individual investors supports the predictions of the model. Individual investors' demand is positively related to market conditions. Moreover, large individual investors' demand leads to high IPO prices, large initial returns, and poor long‐run performance.     

The determinants of market-wide issue cycles for initial public offerings

This paper identifies the determinants of market-wide issue cycles for initial public offerings (IPOs) using an autoregressive conditional count model. We consider whether IPO volume is related to business conditions, investor sentiment, and time variation in adverse selection costs caused by asymmetric information between managers and investors. We provide evidence indicating that time variation in business conditions and investor sentiment are important determinants of monthly issue activity. By contrast, time variation in adverse selection costs does not significantly affect IPO volume.     

Management of the IPO performance in Thailand

This research aims to explore the relationships between six major IPO elements in Thailand: underwriter reputation, ownership concentration, book-building, IPO allocation, the length of the lock up period, and investor interest and underpricing. The sample comprises 153 IPOs listed between 2001 and 2011. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that IPO allocation appears to be the strongest factor with a negative relation to underpricing. The length of the lock up period, issue size, industry, and hot issue market show significant and positive relationships with underpricing. Underwriter reputation is not associated with underpricing as the choice of underwriter is restricted by the Thai regulator's requirements. Book-building does not explain underpricing. Institutional investors play very limited roles in Thai IPOs. A small change in ownership concentration does not affect underpricing. Nevertheless, a longer lock up period can yield a higher initial return. Such a provision can restrain insider dealing.