Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models

The paper studies the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of 13 oil-exporting countries. The purpose of the study is to examine the possibility of Dutch disease in these countries. Tests of cointegration using threshold and momentum-threshold autoregressive (TAR and M-TAR) models suggest the possibility of the disease in 3-out-of 13 countries??Bolivia, Mexico and Norway. For these countries, we also find that (a) oil prices have a long-run effect on the exchange rates; and (b) exchange rates adjust faster to positive deviations from the equilibrium; and (c) there is no evidence of short-run causality between real exchange rates and real oil prices in either direction. Over all, these findings suggest a weak link between oil prices and real exchange rates and thus limited evidence in favor of the Dutch disease.     

人民币汇率:缓解升值压力,加快制度改革

近一段时间人民币汇率在内外因的共同作用下升值压力巨大,盯住美元的固定汇率制度已经不符合当前中国的经济形势,但是完全放开人民币汇率让其自由浮动在现有条件下也是行不通的,以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度才是目前的最佳选择。     

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues*

Abstract. In this paper, we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa–Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings, differences in the econometric estimation techniques, and differences relating to the time‐series and cross‐sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three‐dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.     

Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.     

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.     

经济学中一般均衡存在性问题理论述评

本文对经济学中一般均衡理论进行了概述。文中主要介绍了Arrow—Debreu经济模型、均衡存在性定理、存在性涸题在无穷维商品空间上的扩展以及相关工作。     

Foreign exchange market volatility in EU accession countries in the run-up to Euro adoption: weathering uncharted waters

The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001–2003. By using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes, but also that some of the cross-correlations differ. Notably, cross-correlations increase substantially for two pairs of currencies (the Hungarian forint–Polish zloty and the Czech koruna–Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings.     

Another look at the naive estimator in a regression model

We consider the linear regression model where only a particular linear function of the dependent variables is observed, Stahlecker and Schmidt (1987) proposed a naive least squares (LS) estimator for regression coefficients in such a case. In this note we represent their estimator as a general ridge estimator. This observation leads to a view different from the previous work and provides an easy way of obtaining many important properties of the naive LS estimator. Our approach also gives some insight into the relationship between the naive LS estimator and the generalized least squares estimator.     

论人民币汇率形成机制与资本账户开放

汇率形成机制与资本管理程度是开放经济最重要的两个政策安排。世界各国推进资本账户开放的动因各不相同,其中最主要的是通过资本的跨国界自由流动提高资源的配置效率。但是,近年来新兴市场国家(部分起因于资本流动过快)频繁发生的金融危机告诫我们对资本账户开放应持更谨慎的态度,而且汇率机制与资本账户管理程度必须密切配合,彼此协调,才能避免国际收支的严重失衡。文章通过阐述汇率安排与资本账户开放的关系,指出中国应循序渐进地放松资本管制和开放资本账户,逐步增大汇率制度弹性空间,最终实现资本账户开放和有管理的浮动汇率制度。     

An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa

The paper tests the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using the within-effects and the dynamic panel generalised methods of moment (GMM) techniques for a panel of eight middle-income African countries over the period 1960–2009. We selected these countries because they exhibited a mixture of relative productivity growth and real exchange rate misalignment that fits the characterization of the BSH well. The results strongly support the BSH for this group of countries. The results are valid even after we controlled for potentially omitted variables and endogeneity. The implication is that as these countries become more productive, their currencies appreciate in real terms.     

Equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping-generations exchange economy

An extension to the Yaari (1965)–Blanchard (1985) continuous time overlapping generations model for an endowment Arrow–Debreu economy with an age-structured population is presented. It is proved that Arrow–Debreu equilibrium prices are represented by a double linear integral equation, and depend on the age-distributions of population and endowments. For an economy with a balanced growth, and logarithmic utility, we prove that bubbles may exist if endowments are distributed earlier than some critical age.     

Contamination in linear regression models and its influence on estimators

The consequences of the omission of possibly contaminated observations in a linear regression model for the performance of the ordinary least squares ( LS- ) estimator are discussed. We compare the ordinary L Sestimator with the corresponding 'never pooled' LS -estimator with respect to the matrix-valued mean squared error. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the superiority of an estimator to another one and tests are proposed to check these conditions. Finally the resulting preliminary-test-estimators are investigated.     

PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates

This paper revisits some key topics in the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP). The study applies a set of newly developed unit root tests, which account for both nonlinearity and multiple smooth temporary breaks in series, to the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of 23 developed countries. The results suggest that PPP generally holds for various currency-based real rates. There is evidence in favor of linear stationarity in REERs for highly integrated economies. The REERs of most other countries tend to have nonlinear adjustment toward large long-swing type mean changes around constant equilibrium values.     

人民币汇率波动对NFDI波动的影响及其检验

本文通过对我国NFDI资本流动性及其波动性的计算,检验了人民币/美元汇率波动对NFDI波动性的关系。通过实证分析表明,人民币汇率的波动将导致NFDI资本流动的明显不稳定。在理论研究的基础上,引申出其政策含义：在国际资本流动不断加大的今天,我们必须维护人民币/美元汇率的稳定,这样对于有效引导NFDI的资本流动和维护金融稳定都具有重要的意义。     

Pseudo empirical likelihood method in the presence of missing data

In this paper, we propose an estimator for the population mean when some observations on the study and auxiliary variables are missing from the sample. The proposed estimator is valid for any unequal probability sampling design, and is based upon the pseudo empirical likelihood method. The proposed estimator is compared with other estimators in a simulation study.     

Variations in human resource management in Asian countries: MNC home-country and host-country effects

This paper investigates the determinants of HRM strategy in a random sample of firms operating in Korea and Taiwan. Both indigenous and foreign-owned firms are studied. HRM strategy is measured in terms of the company's reliance on high-performance, versus more traditional, HRM policies and practices in several different areas, including staffing, employee influence, employee rewards and employee autonomy. Independent variables include the firm's country or region of origin (USA, Japan, Europe, Korea or Taiwan), the host country (Korea or Taiwan) and the internal culture of the firm, as measured by upper management's perception that human resources constitute a significant source of value for the organization. Pronounced differences are found across countries of origin and between the two host countries. Managerial values and various organizational characteristics that serve as control variables are also found to impact on HRM strategy.     

Compromised imputation in survey sampling

In this paper, a compromised imputation procedure has been suggested. The estimator of mean obtained from compromised imputation remains better than the estimators obtained from ratio method of imputation and mean method of imputation. An idea to form “Warm Deck Method” of imputation has also been suggested. Received: July 1998     

Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI in transition economies. We make an attempt to overcome some problems associated with previous studies; the aggregation problem, inadequate measures of volatility, short-run focus and the endogeneity problem. Using a GARCH specification, we focus on long-run volatility, while we control for the endogeneity problem by applying SYS-GMM estimation. The obtained results show that the impact of the unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI differs among economic activities since 2000. As part of the re-estimation exercise, we use two alternative measures of volatility to avoid arbitrariness. The obtained results are to a large extent in accordance with the first one.     

发展中国家的利率决定:一个逻辑分析框架

发展中国家的利率决定与发达国家有很大的不同,前者更多的受到外部因素的影响。在完全封闭、完全开放开放以及一般的经济条件下,发展中国家的利率决定因素差别很大。因此从政策的角度分析不同的因素影响利率的方式非常必要。