China's booming livestock industry: household income, specialization, and exit

China's production of livestock products has generally kept pace with her rapidly increasing demand. Over-supply and market corrections for various livestock products took place over the latter part of the 1990s and large numbers of householders exited this type of production. Using household survey data, we estimate the relationship between a household's specialization in livestock production and household net income in 1995, and use a logit model to explore some predictors of household exit from livestock production over the following decade of market instability. We conclude that specialist livestock households with access to necessary skills, technologies, and markets increase their incomes from further livestock specialization in the base year, whereas those to whom livestock production is relatively unimportant can increase household incomes by diverting their resources away from animal husbandry. It was specialist rather than diversified livestock households that tended to bear the brunt of the adjustment to unfavorable price movements over the decade post-1995. Policy concerns include the exit of larger-scale specialized producers who tended to earn relatively high household incomes in 1995, barriers to the effective formation and operation of horizontal and vertical integration options to help mitigate market instability, the further development of insurance programs and markets for livestock producers, and development assistance to livestock households that for various reasons cannot increase scale and specialization.     

The estimation of long term impacts of China's key priority forestry programs on rural household incomes

We use a large unique household panel dataset spanning 16 years to estimate the impacts of three Key Priority Forestry Programs (the KPFPs) in China on household incomes. The programs are the most significant of China's forest policies namely the Sloping Land Conversion Program (the SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (the NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (the DCBT). A fixed effect model with clustered standard errors is used to identify programs’ impacts based on variation in participation across households and time. In addition to estimating the total impacts of these programs, individually and in combination, we disaggregate the effects by income source, stage of policy implementation, and duration of participation. Overall, the impacts of the KPFPs on rural households’ income vary with time of enrollment and policy stage. We observe that the KPFPs in their initial stages of implementation, and for the early years of household participation, had negative, or at best neutral impacts on household incomes, in particular incomes from land. However, the later stages of the SLCP and the DCBT have tended to raise land-based incomes, and the NFPP has ceased to have a negative effect. This is likely to be in part the result of adjustments made by rural households over time in response to changes in the programs, as well as in market and environmental conditions.     

The dynamics of Chinese rural households' participation in labor markets

The work is devoted to the dynamics of labor market participation of Chinese rural households. Based on a theoretical farm household framework the choice between four distinct labor market participation states is empirically analyzed. Using household data over the period 1995–2002 from the province Zhejiang we apply a discrete time hazard approach to analyze households' labor market participation histories. In particular, we investigate the movements between autarky and participation in general and, more specifically, the shifts between part-time and full-time farming. Estimation results suggest significant duration dependence, more precisely, a decreasing risk of moving from one state to another with an increasing time a household occupies one of these states. Further, the likelihoods of starting any participation in labor markets and to start part-time farming are considerably higher than to end participation or to return to full-time farming. In addition, we find that labor market participation decisions are significantly related to several household and farm characteristics.     

A System Comparison Approach to Distinguish Two Nonseparable and Nonnested Agricultural Household Models

This study distinguishes two nonseparable agricultural household models for a self-employed farm household. One assumes heterogeneity of farm and nonfarm labor and a competitive market for nonfarm labor. The other assumes homogeneity of the two types of labor and a restricted market for nonfarm labor. We compare demand systems that are derived from them, which have different dependent variables and different numbers of equations. We apply a Cox-type test to compare these complicated nonnested systems. Results show clearly that the former is better for Japanese rice-farming households. Comparison of price elasticities for those models verifies the importance of that test.     

Life cycle models of women's body mass index and probability of being obese: Evidence from panel data

The objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod, finite‐life, life cycle models of household decisions on food, leisure, and health (body mass index [BMI] or being obese) and to estimate econometric versions of these models treating SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) participation as endogenous. A key insight from the economic models is that households allocate their wealth over the multiperiod life cycle to equalize the marginal utility of wealth in each period. The observations for this study are a balanced panel of over 1,600 women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 Cohort (NLSY79). We focus on the 20‐year period starting in 1986, when SNAP data first became available. Women of all ages are included in the study because at the beginning of adulthood women cannot accurately predict over their life cycle labor and marriage market and health shocks that can thrust them into an economic position where they would qualify for SNAP. New findings include that a woman's household SNAP participation with or without updating for last periods health status and higher local dairy product prices reduce significantly her BMI and probability of being obese.     

Are Household Production Decisions Cooperative? Evidence on Pastoral Migration and Milk Sales from Northern Kenya

Market-based development efforts frequently create opportunities to generate income from goods previously produced and consumed within the household. Production within the household is often characterized by a gender and age division of labor. Market development efforts to improve well-being may lead to unanticipated outcomes if household production decisions are noncooperative. We develop and test models of household decision making to investigate intrahousehold decision making in a nomadic pastoral setting from Kenya. Our results suggest that household decisions are contested, with husbands using migration decisions to resist wives' ability to market milk.     

Cereal price shocks and volatility in sub‐Saharan Africa: what really matters for farmers’ welfare?

The lack of information as well as some misperceptions about the distinction between the welfare consequences of higher versus more volatile cereal prices has limited the effectiveness of policy interventions during the recent food crises in many developing countries. This article proposes an integrated empirical strategy to investigate and compare the different effects of these two phenomena and tests it using nationally representative household survey data from four sub‐Saharan countries. Results show that the negative impacts of a cereal price increase substantially outweigh the effects of price volatility on household welfare across the entire income distribution. The amplitude and the distribution of those effects depend heavily on specific factors, such as: the weight of food consumption over total expenditure; the budget share devoted to cereals; the substitution effect among food groups; and the relative number of net sellers versus net buyers accessing the market. We also show that volatility mainly harms the poorest quintile of the population.     

Market Imperfections and Land Productivity in the Ethiopian Highlands

This study analyses how market imperfections affect land productivity in a degraded low‐potential cereal‐livestock economy in the Ethiopian highlands. A wide array of variables is used to control for land quality in the analysis. Results of three different selection models were compared with least squares models using the HC3 heteroskedasticity‐consistent covariance matrix estimator. Market imperfections in labour and land markets were found to affect land productivity. Land productivity was positively correlated with household male and female labour force per unit of land. Female‐headed households achieved much lower land productivity than male‐headed households. Old age of household heads was also correlated with lower land productivity. Imperfections in the rental market for oxen appeared to cause overstocking of oxen by some households. Conservation technologies had no significant positive short‐run effect on land productivity. The main results were consistent across the different econometric models.     

Allocation of time for meal preparation in a transition economy

The decision of how much time to allocate to meal preparation is an endogenous variable to be determined by the opportunity cost of time, preference between market and nonmarket goods and leisure, and household production technology. Using consumer survey data collected in Bulgaria in 1997, this study measured the effect of household income on the amount of time allocated to meal preparation after controlling the effects of demographic, socio‐economic and other characteristics of households. We used the first‐hurdle dominance model to distinguish non‐meal preparers from meal preparers. Since the overall pattern of allocating time between market work, household activity and leisure in a particular country is likely to be conditional on the stage of its economic development, this study presents a unique opportunity to assess the rationality of the time allocation behavior of consumers in an economy in transition from a centrally‐planned to a market‐oriented system. Results showed that household income did not influence the decision of how much time to allocate to meal preparation. While the insignificant linkage between income and time allocation to meal preparation could be due to the differences in preference and household production technology. It can be also attributed to the legacy of four decades of a central‐planning system and underdeveloped food manufacturing and service industries. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Beyond One‐Size‐Fits‐All: Differentiating Market Access Measures for Commodity Systems in the Kenyan Highlands

Market access measures employed by economists and spatial analysts may not adequately capture local market or product‐specific variation. Analysis is conducted on the effects of market access on two commodities in the Kenyan highlands: milk and bean seeds. Both simple and composite measures of market access are applied to spatial price formation models to create spatial price decay functions in the context of household‐specific transaction costs. Composite measures of market access include negative exponential (using travel time or distance as cost) and gravity measures. The results demonstrate that the effects of market access differ significantly depending on the particular goods of interest. Simple measures of market access have the advantage of being more easily interpretable, and should therefore be preferred when communicating research outputs to the non‐scientific community, especially decision‐makers. The implications are that research addressing commodity‐specific development questions needs to look beyond generic measures of market access and develop tailored measures that reflect the characteristics of the commodity system of interest. The analysis also demonstrates that spatial price formation can be used to generate potentially more accurate measures of unit‐distance marketing costs.     

Do crop purchase programs improve smallholder welfare? The case of Zambia's Food Reserve Agency

Government and parastatal crop purchase programs have regained popularity in sub-Saharan Africa, with many citing improving smallholder farmers’ welfare as a key goal. Yet there is limited empirical evidence on the topic. This paper analyzes the effects of the Zambian Food Reserve Agency's (FRA's) maize purchase activities on smallholder welfare. The FRA buys maize at a pan-territorial price that often exceeds market prices in surplus production areas. Using two household panel survey datasets spanning 15 years and exploiting variation in the scale of FRA activities over time, we employ fixed effects and control function approaches to estimate the effects of a smallholder household's maize sales to the FRA on its welfare, as well as the effects of more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a given district on the welfare of smallholder households in the district. Results suggest positive direct welfare effects on the minority of smallholders that sell to the FRA. We also find that, in the early years of the program, more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a district was associated with reductions in smallholder welfare, particularly among maize autarkic and net buying households. In later years, we find no evidence of such negative effects and some evidence of positive district-level effects on maize net buyers.     

福建省农户分化对林地流转行为的影响研究

基于集体林权制度改革后福建省10个县(市)274户农户的抽样调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型,分别建立农户林地转入模型、转出模型,实证检验农户分化对林地流转的影响。研究将农户分化分为农户收入水平上的分化和农户职业上的分化。研究表明:农户分化对农户林地流转行为影响显著,其中农户收入水平对福建省农户的林地转入行为在统计上有显著的负向影响,同时,对农户林地转出行为也有负向显著的影响;农户职业分化对农户林地转入行为有显著的负向影响,却对农户林地转出有正向影响。基于研究提出以城乡发展一体化推进林地流转、建立林地流转市场、建立健全林地流转保障体系、完善林地产权管理制度、合理引导林地租赁等建议。     

Information Access and Smallholder Farmers’ Market Participation in Peru

Previous studies have documented the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on farmers’ market participation. We employ a triple‐hurdle model to examine the effect of internet and phones on Peruvian smallholder farmers’ market participation, marketplace choice, and volume decisions using household‐level data from the IV National Agricultural Census of Peru in 2012. Double matching at the district‐ and household‐levels is implemented to address potential selection bias. Results indicate a positive direct effect of internet and phones on farmers’ market participation and volume decisions on the national market. Those with ICT access are more likely to sell on the foreign market than those without ICT access. The marginal effects suggest that internet access tends to have larger impacts on volume decisions than phones. In addition to direct effects, we find that internet access has significant and positive spillover effects on market participation and volume decisions in the national market. Without implementing matching procedures, the magnitude of the ICT effect tends to be smaller. Results provide empirical support for policies and social programmes that promote ICT especially internet usage in rural Peru to improve smallholder farmers’ marketing performance.     

Pasture taxes and agricultural intensification in southern Mali

This study integrates biophysical simulation data with a farm household model of intertemporal optimization, to investigate changing crop-livestock management practices in the Sudano-Guinean zone of Mali. Over a 15-yr time horizon we find that free grazing on the commons remains more attractive to the representative household than adopting more labor-and capital-intensive confinement systems, but that a relatively low level of pasture tax (around US$3 per livestock unit per year) would be sufficient to induce intensification. Because confinement raises output, the net cost of the tax to the household is only about US$1 per unit per year. Imposing pasture taxes to induce intensification could raise community welfare, if the value of commons resources liberated by reduced grazing pressure exceeds that level.     

Adoption of Multiple Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Rural Ethiopia

The adoption and diffusion of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) has become an important issue in the development‐policy agenda for sub‐Saharan Africa, especially as a way to tackle land degradation, low agricultural productivity and poverty. However, the adoption rates of SAPs remain below expected levels. This study analyses the factors that facilitate or impede the probability and level of adoption of interrelated SAPs, using recent data from multiple plot‐level observations in rural Ethiopia. Multivariate and ordered probit models are applied to the modelling of adoption decisions by farm households facing multiple SAPs, which can be adopted in various combinations. The results show that there is a significant correlation between SAPs, suggesting that adoptions of SAPs are interrelated. The analysis further shows that both the probability and the extent of adoption of SAPs are influenced by many factors: a household’s trust in government support, credit constraints, spouse education, rainfall and plot‐level disturbances, household wealth, social capital and networks, labour availability, plot and market access. These results imply that policy‐makers and development practitioners should seek to strengthen local institutions and service providers, maintain or increase household asset bases and establish and strengthen social protection schemes in order to improve the adoption of SAPs.     

The impact of farm credit in Pakistan

Both informal and formal loans matter in agriculture. However, formal lenders provide many more production loans than informal lenders, often at a cost (mostly loan default cost) higher than what they can recover. For example, the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP), providing about 90% of formal loans in rural areas, incurs high loan default costs. Yet, like other governments, the Government of Pakistan supports the formal scheme on the grounds that lending to agriculture is a high risk activity because of covariate risk. Hence, such policies are often based on a market failure argument. As farm credit schemes are subsidised, policy makers must know if these schemes are worth supporting. Using a recent large household survey data from rural Pakistan (Rural Financial Market Studies or RFMS), we have attempted to estimate the effectiveness of the ADBP as a credit delivery institution. A two‐stage method that takes the endogeneity of borrowing into account is used to estimate credit impact. Results reveal that ADBP contributes to household welfare and that its impact is higher for smallholders than for large holders. Nevertheless, large holders receive the bulk of ADBP finance. The ADBP is, thus, not a cost‐effective institution in delivering rural finance. Its cost‐effectiveness can be improved by reducing its loan default cost and partially by targeting smallholders in agriculture where credit yields better results.     

Off-farm labour allocation decisions in small-scale rural households in Zimbabwe

The double hurdle model is used to analyse the off‐farm labour decisions of small‐scale agricultural household members in the Shamva District of Zimbabwe. The approach permits the joint modelling of the decision to participate in the labour market and the decision regarding the amount of time allocated to work. Results indicate that a number of variables (notably, gender, education and assets) indeed have effects which are qualitatively and quantitatively different in terms of participation and hours worked. Overall, the empirical analysis confirms the importance of individual characteristics (such as gender and education) and household/farm characteristics (e.g. land area accessible to the household, productive assets, remittances and the agricultural terms of trade) in influencing the labour market decisions of rural household members.     

Production efficiency of Chinese agriculture: evidence from rural household survey data

A shadow-price profit frontier model is developed to examine production efficiency of Chinese rural households in farming operations. The model incorporates price distortions resulting from imperfect market conditions and socioeconomic and institutional constraints, but retains the advantages of stochastic frontier properties. The shadow prices are derived through a generalized profit function estimation. The shadow-price profit frontier is then estimated and an efficiency index based on the estimated profit frontier is computed and decomposed to household characteristics. Empirical results using data from China's Rural Household Survey for 1991 reject the neoclassical profit maximization hypothesis based on market prices in favor of the general model with price distortions. Farmers' resource endowment and education influence their response to the market restrictions, thus alter their performance in terms of efficiency. The estimated efficiency index ranges from 6% to 93% with a sample average of 62%. Households' educational level, family size and per capita net income are positively related to production efficiency. Households living in mountain areas or with family members employed by the government or state industries are relatively inefficient. Reducing market intervention, allowing right of use of farm land to be transferred among households, encouraging migration of excess farm labor, and promoting farmers' education will improve rural households' efficiency in agricultural production.     

Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short‐term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption

A complete demand system for Vietnam was estimated using household survey data. Results showed that demand for rice with respect to prices and expenditure is relatively inelastic compared to other foods. Demand for food in general tends to be less elastic at higher levels of income and for urban households. In the short term, a market shock such as a 10% decrease in income or a 30% increase in rice prices forces households to spend a larger portion of their expenditure on rice at the expense of other foods. Low‐income households face a higher risk of undernourishment as their daily calorie intake is more negatively affected by the shocks than high‐income households. The results suggest the importance of policies that provide necessary safety net programs for the poor.     

农村生活污水治理受益农户付费行为分析基于东江源水源地的农户调查

[目的]分析水源地农村生活污水治理中的农户参与及付费行为。[方法]文章运用单边界加支付卡式的改进条件价值评估法（CVM）,以东江源水源地500户农户调查微观数据为基础,采用Heckman两阶段模型分析农户付费行为差异及关键因素。[结果]（1）不同生活污水治理模式下样本农户同意进入付费情景的概率不同,支付意愿也不同,但差距不大;接入城（集）镇处理管网的农户平均支付意愿为8.55元/（月·户）,接入村落集中污水处理设施的农户平均支付意愿为4.42元/（月·户）,采用农户分散处理模式的农户平均支付意愿为5.63元/（月·户）。（2）村集体的参与、农户对水环境的感知变量均对农户付费行为有显著影响。其中,在第一阶段中区县变量、河流水质变化的感知、河流水质变化与污水处理关系认知、是否是集中污水处理设施覆盖村、文化程度、是否是村干部变量通过了显著检验,是影响受益农户是否同意付费的关键因素;在第二阶段中区县变量、本村生活污水处理治理成效满意度、收入通过了显著性检验,是影响受益农户支付水平的关键因素。[结论]应建立县级可持续的农村生活污水处理设施管护机制,明确污水处理设施管护责任主体,划分各主体职责,可...