Pricing of Futures Contracts on Coupon Bonds: Empirical Evidence from Finland

This paper investigates the pricing of the two year old Finnish bond futures market. We show that the market has mispriced the futures contracts during the test period with the futures contracts being underpriced most of the time. We also measure whether the futures market has prediction power over the bond market. Our results suggest that there is a lead-lag relationship between the Finnish bond and the futures markets.     

The Dividend Pricing Model: New Evidence from the Korean Housing Market

It is generally conceded that dividend pricing models are poor predictors of asset prices. This finding is sometimes attributed to excess volatility or to a dividend process manipulated by firm managers. In this paper, we present rather powerful panel tests of the dividend pricing relation using a unique data set in which dividends are set by market forces independent of managers' preferences. We rely on observations on the market for condominium dwellings in Korea—perhaps the only market in which information on dividends and prices is publicly and continuously available to consumers and investors. We extend the “dividend-price ratio model” to panels of housing returns and rents differentiated by type and location. We find broad support for the dividend pricing model during periods both before and after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998, suggesting that the market for housing assets in Korea has been remarkably efficient. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Hong Kong-Singapore International Real Estate Research Symposium, August 2004, Hong Kong and the meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association, January 2005. We are grateful for the comments of Ashok Bardhan, Yuming Fu, Chinmoy Ghosh, Lok Sang Ho, Charles Ka Yui Leung, Sau Kim Lum and Seow Eng Ong. Son's research was supported by the Konkuk University and Hwang's research was supported by the National University of Singapore.     

投资者异质性与证券市场定价——理论模型与中国的经验证据

本文从投资者异质性的客观现实出发,通过对投资者二维视角的交叉分类与相关行为的探讨,提出了一种按交易特点与行为依据的新的分类方案,即将投资者分为套利交易者、价格预期交易者和量能变动交易者三类。在此基础上分别建立了各类投资者的需求函数,通过对证券市场供求函数的讨论,利用均衡分析方法构建了基于投资者异质性的证券市场定价模型,并以我国证券市场1999-2011年的月度数据为样本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:我国证券市场价格主要由价格预期交易者的诱导性策略行为与量能变动交易者的羊群行为决定,套利交易者的套利行为对市场价格没有显著的影响,证券市场扩容也未对市场价格的形成产生系统性冲击。     

创业板市场IPO定价效率研究——来自香港市场的经验证据

本文对香港创业板市场IPO抑价现象进行了实证检验，研究表明，香港创业板IPO市场定价效率相对较低：风险投资家能够带领风险企业提前上市并得到投资者认同；IPO企业经营年限、价值不确定性及IPO发行时信息处理效率等变量对香港创业板IPO市场定价效率有显著影响：承销商、审计事务所的鉴证功能得不到体现；高效的IPO发行机制有利于创业板IPO市场效率的提高。     

Market Segmentation and the Cost of Capital in a Domestic Market: Evidence from Municipal Bonds

We study the implications of market segmentation in a domestic setting, the US municipal bond market. A (state‐level) segmentation of this market emerges from asymmetric tax exemption. Municipal bond investors are exempt from state and local taxes on bonds issued by their own state, but not on bonds issued by other states. We demonstrate that market segmentation imposes significant costs on both issuers and investors in the form of higher yields and higher costs of financial intermediation. Our results provide insight into some well‐documented artifacts of the municipal bond market, such as high yields and the popularity of insurance.     

中国在全球工业机器人贸易网络中的拓扑特征与地位变迁

《国务院办公厅关于完善反洗钱、反恐怖融资、反逃税监管体制机制的意见》（国办函［2017］84号）中提出修改惩治洗钱犯罪相关规定,将上游犯罪本犯纳入洗钱罪主体范围,但是否要对自洗钱进行立法一直是我国法律学术界的一个争议焦点。本文在整体视角下提出自洗钱行为的认识框架,对自洗钱行为的危害进行分析,构造了自洗钱和协助洗钱刑事立法的统一理论基础。本文基于这一理论基础,对我国现行洗钱罪相关规定进行全面审视和系统分析,提出自洗钱立法建议。     

优礼与管控之间：清代错案责任“双轨制”之形成及其原因探析

清代错案责任追究制度呈现出以《吏部处分则例》为主、以《大清律例》为辅的"双轨制"法律体系。从对官员管控和优礼的政策视角出发,可以发现,中国古代错案责任制度的发展脉络,呈现出从单一适用律文到以律为主、以单行条文为修正的律例并用状态,再到清代"双轨制"模式的发展过程。结合对当时官僚政治态势的观察,可发现清代错案责任"双轨制"是管控与优礼政策相互作用发展到新阶段的产物。     

我国资本市场可转债定价及后市走势研究

从1992年发行第一只可转换公司债券(以下简称“可转债”)至今,中国可转债市场已经历了二十多年的发展。自诞生以来,中国监管机构对可转债的发行要求不断明确,配套监管措施不断完善,可转债市场迅速发展,发行规模不断提高。然而,在2017年以前,虽然可转债的发行规模增长迅速,但其融资总额占资本市场股权产品总融资规模的比重仍处于较低水平。究其原因,一方面是因为可转债的发行主体仅限于上市公司,股权融资存在较大的不确定性;同时可转债的定价条款过于复杂,市场接受程度较低。随着2017年证监会对可转债产品的审核标准进一步明确,可转债发行规模高速增长,目前已成为资本市场上不可忽视的品种。为确定可转债定价方式,本文以“广汽转债”历年来的市场价格为数据基础,以B-S模型为分析模型,通过实证分析寻求影响可转债定价的主要因素,对未来可转债定价的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Underpricing of Newly Issued Bonds: Evidence from the Swiss Capital Market

The pricing of newly issued bonds on the Swiss capital market is investigated over the years 1980–1982. The results reveal a slight underpricing of new bonds at the issue date that is roughly equal to the difference in transactions costs between the markets for new and seasoned bonds. Underpricing is no longer observed when the new bonds start to be traded on the stock exchange, that is, after about two days. Tests of several hypotheses show that unexpected changes in interest rates over the offering period explain part of the underpricing.     

Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market

This paper analyzes asset pricing in a partially segmented market where citizens of a small country are allowed to hold only their domestic securities, whereas the rest of the investors (“foreigners”) are essentially allowed to hold all securities. In this market setting it may occur that the citizens of the small country are willing to pay less for their domestic securities than are the foreign investors. The paper derives equilibrium required rates of return for different investors in this market setting which perfectly occurred in Finland and tests this equilibrium model using data from the Finnish stock market. Empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses derived from the model.     

The Pricing of Interest-Rate Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market

This paper addresses the issue of whether firms are required to pay an ex ante premium to investors for bearing the risk of interest-rate changes. A two-factor APT model with the market and changes in the yield on long-term government bonds as factors is employed. The paper shows that, empirically, most of the interest-sensitive stocks are in the utility industries, and that there is reasonable evidence that the interest factor is priced in the sense of the APT. Several sources for the interest sensitivity are considered, and regulatory lags are focused on as a likely candidate.     

A Non-Parametric Option Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence

In this paper, we propose an empirically-based, non-parametric option pricing model to evaluate S&P 500 index options. Given the fact that the model is derived under the real measure, an equilibrium asset pricing model, instead of no-arbitrage, must be assumed. Using the histogram of past S&P 500 index returns, we find that most of the volatility smile documented in the literature disappears.     

Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis

We empirically compare Libor and Swap Market Models for thepricing of interest rate derivatives, using panel data on pricesof US caplets and swaptions. A Libor Market Model can directlybe calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a SwapMarket Model is calibrated to a certain set of swaption prices.For both models we analyze how well they price caplets and swaptionsthat were not used for calibration. We show that the Libor MarketModel in general leads to better prediction of derivative pricesthat were not used for calibration than the Swap Market Model.Also, we find that Market Models with a declining volatilityfunction give much better pricing results than a specificationwith a constant volatility function. Finally, we find that modelsthat arechosen to exactly match certain derivative prices areoverfitted; more parsimonious models lead to better predictionsfor derivative prices that were not used for calibration. JELClassification: G12, G13, E43.     

Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis

We empirically compare Libor and Swap Market Models for the pricing of interest rate derivatives, using panel data on prices of US caplets and swaptions. A Libor Market Model can directly be calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a Swap Market Model is calibrated to a certain set of swaption prices. For both models we analyze how well they price caplets and swaptions that were not used for calibration. We show that the Libor Market Model in general leads to better prediction of derivative prices that were not used for calibration than the Swap Market Model. Also, we find that Market Models with a declining volatility function give much better pricing results than a specification with a constant volatility function. Finally, we find that models that are chosen to exactly match certain derivative prices are overfitted; more parsimonious models lead to better predictions for derivative prices that were not used for calibration.     

Market Perception of Goodwill: Some Empirical Evidence

Accounting and reporting for goodwill has been on the agenda of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the International Accounting Standards Committee, the UK's Accounting Standards Board, and the US Congress. Goodwill has also been the subject of Securities Exchange Commission rulings directed at specific companies. The attention directed towards goodwill would suggest that it is a material asset for a large number of firms. This article analyses the market perception of goodwill as an asset in the determination of the firm's valuation. Also explored is whether the market values goodwill to the same degree as it values other assets. The results of this study found that the market perceives goodwill as an asset and incorporates the information in the valuation of a firm. The findings of this study could be of importance to those involved in and affected by standard-setting deliberations involving goodwill.     

Empirical Evidence for Advantageous Selection in the Commercial Fire Insurance Market

De Meza and Webb (2001) indicated that individuals with a higher degree of risk aversion would demand more insurance and invest in self-protection to reduce risk probability when both the preference type and investment in self-protection are hidden from insurers. They referred to the negative correlation between market insurance and risk type as advantageous selection. However, the relationship between risk type and the degree of risk aversion is debatable in both theoretical and empirical research. This paper therefore proposes that advantageous selection could be supported from another angle by directly examining the relationships that exist among market insurance, self-protection, and risk probability. By focusing on the commercial fire insurance market, information on the purchase of market insurance, investment in self-protection, and fire accident records is hand-collected by means of a unique survey. It is found that firms purchasing market insurance have a greater tendency to channel efforts into self-protection. It is also found that firms expending effort on self-protection are less likely to suffer a fire accident. Furthermore, it is found that firms with commercial fire insurance have less chance of suffering a fire accident than those without such insurance. Each of the above three findings jointly supports the view that advantageous selection could play a critical role in the commercial fire insurance market.     

Pricing Sovereign Credit Risk of Poland: Evidence from the CDS Market

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts. We compare different specifications of the models allowing for both fixed and time-varying LGD, and we use these values to analyze the sovereign credit risk of Polish debt throughout the period of a global financial crisis. Our results suggest the presence of a low LGD and a relatively high PD during a recent financial crisis.     

The Pricing of Audit Services: Further Evidence from the Canadian Market

Since the seminal work of Simunic (1980), many studies have investigated audit pricing, competition in the audit industry, product differentiation and audit cost functions. This study expands on the work done to date by examining Canadian audit fees across time, audit firm and industry. The observations of audit fee data span the period of time during which the provincial codes of professional ethics with respect to fee tenders and advertising in general were relaxing in Canada. The results reported in this study support the existence of differentiated audit services in the Canadian audit market, and are consistent with DeAngelo's (1981) size interpretation of audit quality. Although no significant differences in the pricing of audit services across time are detected, the data provide evidence of significant pricing differences across (pre-merger) Big Eight audit firms in the small auditee market, suggesting that treating these audit firms as a homogeneous group in future research may not be appropriate. These inter-firm pricing differences do not appear to be due to the potential confounding effects of the auditee's industry. In contrast to previous studies, a significant positive association between internal and external audit costs is observed, suggesting a complementary, rather than a substitute, relationship.