国际资本流动的新趋势及其影响

当前，国际资本流动呈现证券化、市场倾斜化和规模扩大化趋势，这带来了外汇市场崩溃、宏观经济紊乱、国际收支失衡和央行监管难度增大等负面影响。可以通过采取限制短期资本进入、政府利用市场手段“入市”操作、积极参与国际协调等措施减少国际资本流动的负面影响。     

国际资本流动与我国资本市场开放

了解国际资本流动的特点，按照市场趋势的规律顺势而为，将国内现存的风险释放在资本市场开放与国际资本流入的过程中，在需求大于供给的形势下，推出国有股市价减持，减缓外资流入中国资本市场的速度。配合利率、汇率的适时变动，锁定国际投机资本，使资本市场与外汇市场通过现货对冲的方式阻止套利行为的发生。     

国际资本流动有效监控问题思考

对国际资本流动实施有效控制，就要加强宏观经济政策对涉外经济活动的指导和协调，坚持资本账户的有序开放，建立资本流动监控的预警系统，并建立国际资本流动风险预警体系，对国际资本风险程度进行测算。     

我国短期资本流动新趋势

资本流出能够减少货币供应的被动投放,将大大提高中央银行对货币供应的控制力,这将为货币政策的预调微调创造更大的空间受欧债危机不断蔓延、美元指数持续走强、中国经济增速放缓等因素的影响,近几个月国际资本流动出现了方向性逆转,我国短期资本流动     

试析国际资本流动对新兴市场国家金融体系的影响

有关国际资本流动和一国资本帐户开放的理论研究都表明，在理想的状况下容许国际资本自由流动将给所有的国家带来福利的增加。所以目前大部分的经济学家和政策制定们都相信所有的国家最终都应当向资本流动自由化的方向发展。但是，在过去的十几年里，银行问题和银行危机又开始大量出现，而新兴市场国家的银行问题似乎更为严重。这就意味着新兴市场国家是带头银行体系的脆弱性问题来迎接资本自由流动这一挑战的。那么，一个国家在银行体系未能足够完善时就开放其资本帐户，任由国际资本（特别是流动性非常强的短期资本）自由流动，究竟会产生什么样的后果呢？     

Financial Markets Trends and Studies of Singapore Futures Markets

In this paper we explore some recent trends in the financial market and also report some studies of the Singapore futures markets. A characterization of trends shows that national securities markets are much closer than before. This means the linkages between securities and their derivatives and amongst themselves have be come much stronger. Secondly, the advent of sophisticated risk products and instruments and the knowledge to use them effectively would become a common theme together with the idea of value enhancements. Thirdly, computerizations and the internet will play an increasingly important role. So will empirical financial research become increasingly microscopic. The discussion will be supported by the experiences of the Singapore futures markets and various empirical research evidences. The paper also provides a detailed study of causality-in-variance test of information transmission between SIMEX and Osaka Stock Exchange on the Nikkei 225 stock index futures trading prior to, during, and immediately after the announcement of the collapse of Barings. The results are indicative of very strong international market linkages and a portent of things to come.     

美元与国际资本流动

长期以来，美国依靠资本项目顺差业弥补经常项目赤穿，维持了美元在国陆货币体系中的优势地位，这一现象用传统经济学理论难以解释。本文从历史的角度分析了这一问题。20世纪80年代，日本的大量资金回流美国支撑了美元；90年代，东亚新兴市场经济国家流入美国的资金增加，同时美国经济保持强劲的增长势头，使美元强势地位继续维持，进入新的世纪以来，随着日元国际化进程不断深入，东亚货币合作的兴起，欧元进入流通领域，美元的脆弱性不断加深，美元将向其真实价值回归，国际货币体系将更加稳定、合理。     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

金融危机下国际资本流动对中国金融的影响

介绍了金融危机及国际资本流动的新特点,分析了其影响中国金融安全的传导机制。提出国际资本流动危害金融安全的表现并给出相关建议。     

国际资本流入对中国金融稳定性的影响和对策分析

从2002年开始,中国非FDI资本流入和"错误与遗漏"账户一改过去十多年的运行模式,由负转正."错误与遗漏"账户数值为正一般被用来解释国家监控之外的大部分资本流入.非FDI和"错误与遗漏"账户两项正值则可以明确地显示出人民币升值预期下大量投机性资本的偷偷流入.本文主要分析了国际资本流入对中国宏观经济稳定的影响,并提出了相应的政策建议.     

国际金融危机对我国资本市场的影响和对策研究

2007年以来,国际金融市场动荡加剧,"新兴加转轨"的我国资本市场跌宕起伏,上证指数从最高的6124点跌至最低的1664点。国际金融危机对我国的实体经济、上市公司经营业绩、投资者心理和金融创新都带来了负面影响,但也为我国的产业金融转型创造了机会。本文认为,我们要化危为机,加强资本市场制度建设、改善宏观运行环境、强化应急机制、稳定市场信心、提高资本市场资源配置效率和化解风险能力,要稳妥推进金融创新和资本项目可兑换,提高资本市场透明度,利用资本市场加速产业转移。     

国际金融体系的改革与发展趋势

国际金融危机的爆发,将现行国际金融体系存在的缺陷与弊端暴露得淋漓尽致,同时也凸显国际金融体系改革的必要性和紧迫性。在改革国际金融体系问题上,各经济体分歧的焦点主要集中于其在后金融危机时代国际金融体系之中的地位问题。充分认识国际金融体系的现状、特点与缺陷,深入剖析主要经济体关于国际金融体系改革的思路与分歧,有利于准确把握后金融危机时代国际金融体系变化的总体趋势、推进这一改革的进程。     

Statement of the Financial Economists Roundtable on the International Competitiveness of U.S. Capital Markets

The Committee on Capital Markets Regulation issued an Interim Report (known as the “Paulson Report”) near the end of 2006 that concluded that the U.S. “is losing its leading competitive position as compared to stock markets and financial centers abroad.” This report was quickly followed by a study, which reached similar conclusions, that was commissioned by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Senator Charles Schumer and prepared by McKinsey & Co. At its July 2007 annual meeting, the Financial Economists Roundtable (FER) — a group of senior financial economists at universities and other organizations recognized as having made significant contributions to the finance literature—discussed the issues raised by the Report and decided to publish its own report. The report makes the following four policy recommendations:

• 1 Securities class action suits —Abolish enterprise liability under rule 10b‐5 in situations arising out of security purchases and sales in the secondary trading market among outside shareholders, while retaining managerial and firm liability where the company itself or its insiders (officers and directors) transact to their own benefit. Imposing massive liability on a company that is not a party to the securities transactions and does not benefit from the fraud does not serve a deterrence function since it is the continuing shareholders of the corporation who bear the burden of what the company must pay if found guilty, either directly or indirectly through insurance premiums.
• 2 Shareholder rights—Require all corporations to obtain shareholder approval to adopt a poison pill, regardless of whether a company has a staggered board. This requirement would conform to the broad principle that the board of any company should not be able to deny its shareholders the opportunity to decide on the merits of a takeover bid, and it would help restore the market for corporate control as an effective disciplinary mechanism for poorly performing boards and managers.
• 3 Compliance costs associated with SOX §404—Adopt a statutory amendment that makes it optional for a company to adopt the §404 procedures for a management assessment and auditor attestation of the effectiveness of its internal controls, with the requirement that if the company chooses not to comply it must explain why in its financial statements. Thus, in effect, the FER effectively recommends that the market be allowed to determine the value of §404 compliance. If a company chooses not to comply, the market will assess its explanation for non‐compliance and will value the company accordingly.
• 4 Maintaining open markets—Allow both foreign and U.S. firms to choose to report in conformity with either IFRS or U.S. GAAP. The FER recognizes both IFRS and U.S. GAAP as high‐quality accounting standards that provide reasonable foundations for financial reporting for investors. Allowing both foreign and U.S. firms to adopt whichever of these standards they believe to be the most cost‐effective provides an opportunity for the market and investors themselves to sort out which reporting standard best serves their interests.

     

International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk

Relations between foreign exchange risk premia, exchange ratevolatility, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels forthe underlying currencies, are derived under the assumptionof integrated capital markets. As predicted, the volatilityof exchange rates is significantly associated with the estimatedvolatility of the relevant pricing kernels, and foreign exchangerisk premia are significantly related to both the estimatedvolatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchangerates. The estimated foreign exchange risk premia mostly satisfyFama’s (1984) necessary conditions for explaining theforward premium puzzle, but the puzzle remains in several caseseven after taking account of the pricing kernel volatilities.