US–Japan Trade Frictions: The Past,the Present,and Implications for the US–China Trade War

The United States and Japan have been involved in trade frictions over a number of products including textiles, steel, automobiles, semi‐conductors, and agricultural products over the last 50 years. US–Japan trade frictions have taken basically two forms: (i) the United States attempting to restrict Japan's exports to the United States; and (ii) the United States attempting to increase its exports to Japan by “opening” the Japanese market. By putting pressure on Japan to adopt necessary measures, the United States sought to achieve two main objectives: (i) to reduce its trade deficit vis‐à‐vis Japan; and (ii) to protect and/or promote US industries. The United States failed to achieve the first objective, while some success was achieved for the second objective. The United States triggered a trade war against China with the objectives of: (i) reducing the bilateral trade deficit; and (ii) stopping unfair trade practices by Chinese firms such as violations of intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer. Based on the experiences from the US–Japan trade frictions, the United States may achieve some success for the second objective, but not for the first. The chances of achieving the second objective would increase if the United States cooperates with countries such as Japan and the European Union, which are faced with similar problems.     

标准化对中国出口贸易的影响效应——基于局部均衡的分析

由于技术差距的存在,中国出口贸易产品的技术标准普遍低于美、日、欧等发达国家,因此,标准化对中国出口贸易的影响显著。从局部均衡的角度分析短期和长期的不同影响效应发现：在短期内,标准化对中国的出口贸易效应主要是负面的,表现为贸易限制效应、贸易转移效应和贸易条件效应;而在长期情况下,如果企业能够积极改进,不断创新,那么标准化对中国的贸易会产生积极的促进效应,贸易量会增加,同时贸易条件也会得到改善。     

Foreign and domestic R&D investment

A considerable share of R&D investment is due to multinational firms that simultaneously operate R&D bases at home and abroad. We develop a simple model of foreign and domestic R&D investment and test the model's predictions on a sample of 146 Japanese multinational firms’ R&D investments in Japan and the United States in 1996. The empirical results confirm that the foreign to domestic R&D ratio depends on relative technological opportunities and relative demand conditions, with foreign research expenditures responding to technological opportunity and foreign development expenditures responding to demand.     

Interlinkages between systems, key components and component generic technologies in building competencies

In the paper, an analysis is made of the intolinkages between systems, key components and components' generic technologies in building technological competencies. The sample consists of a set of seven Japanese and four European firm in the industrial, consumer electronics and materials sectors, engaged in the field of optoelectronics. Three tyes of information-—scientific publications, US patenting and interview data—are used. The findings demonstrate the existence ofsuch interlinkages.It was possible to confirm empirically the concept of generic technologies which are the basic underbing technologies forming thefoundation of a range of key components. The generic technologia are important for all firms, irrespectives of their final product markets. Building capabilities at the upstream and over a long period allows firms to develop more high value-added systems and products. It also provides forms with the opportunity to branch into new areas.     

The relation between the average complexity of high-tech products and their diversity: An empirical test of evolutionary models

What is the relation between the average level of complexity that characterizes a product's technology, and the degree of diversity of that technology across rival firms? Evolutionary theories of innovation and technical advance are consistent with either a direct or an inverse relation. The issue thus becomes an empirical one. This paper uses a unique database containing detailed quantitative data on the specifications of 12 high-tech product groups for the U.S., Japan and selected European countries, for 1982, for both products and processes. It is found that the more complex the technology, the less diverse is the technology of rival firms that produce the product. This is consistent with the following evolutionary process: Economies of scale and scope inherent in high-level technologies require firms who adopt them to dispose entirely of older technologies, in order to remain competitive; at the same time, older, simpler technologies continue to exist and permit wide diversities among firms who pursue “niche” market strategies.     

Export strategies in the computer industry: Japan and the USA

Japan's computer manufacturers realize that they need more than a new generation of software (or hardware) for success in world markets. The missing ingredients are primarily multinational busines experience factors, which have worked to the past advantage of US companies. Japan's past export successes — textiles, steel, consumer electronics—have come with products that, unlike computers, could be sold through existing distribution channels. Realizing their disadvantages in selling computer systems worldwide, the Japanese designed the heavily publicized fifth-generation project seeking technology that could serve as a wedge into markets where US-based multinationals had already become firmly entrenched. For this as for other joint government-industry R&D projects in Japan, the indirect effects will be at least as important as the technological outcomes; asking whether the fifth-generation project could have reached particular technical objectives poses the wrong question. In terms of technological capability, Japan could emerge as a formidable rival of the USA in world computer markets. Given the international presence of US companies large and small, this will not be as quick or as easy as in other Japanese export industries: Japan will continue to have far more difficulty exporting computer systems than VCRs or integrated circuits.     

Technological Choice In Voluntary Standards Committees: An Empirical Analysis

Vendors frequently compete to have their technology adopted as part of a voluntary consensus standard. In this paper we report the results of an empirical study of the factors that influence the choice of technologies in voluntary technical standards committees.

Participation in standards committees is viewed as an aspect of the product development process of corporations involved in markets where network externalities are present. The factors hypothesized to affect the technology decision are: the market power of the coalition sponsoring the technology, the installed base of the products containing the technology, the size of the firms that make up the coalition, the promotional activities of the sponsors (such as technical contributions submitted), the perceived superiority of the technology, and the political skills of the coalition.

These hypotheses were tested by collecting data concerning specific technical decisions that were made in several standards committees in the area of computer communications hardware. Two sided t-tests were used to test the hypotheses, and logit regression was used to infer the importance of each factor in predicting adoption or non-adoption of the technology. A factor analysis was also performed to gain further insight into the data.

The results suggest that the size of the firms in the coalition supporting a technology and the extent to which they support their position through written contributions are significant determinants of technological choice in the standards decisions studied. The market share of the firms in the coalition was found to be significant only for the buyers of compatible products, i.e., the monopsony power was significant, not the monopoly power. In addition, the technologies whose sponsors weighted market factors more highly than technical factors were more likely to be adopted in the standards decision studied. The proponents of both the adopted and non-adopted technologies were found to have equal belief in the overall technical superiority of their technical alternative, even after the decision. The installed base of a technology and process skills were not found to be significant predictors of the committee outcome.     

What drives the capacity to integrate Industry 4.0 technologies? Evidence from European R&D projects

ABSTRACT

Industry 4.0 is a word that identifies innovative technologies, processes and products, typical of a Fourth Industrial Revolution characterised by a massive and pervasive use of interdependent digital technologies and the rise of cyber-physical spaces or smart factories. European Member States are committed to adapting their innovation systems in order to be able to benefit from Industry 4.0 and the European Commission is also facing the challenge of putting less advanced regions in a position to do so. However, little is known about the drivers of the capacity to compete in the domain of Industry 4.0 by integrating different enabling technologies at the regional level. On the basis of data on regional participation in the 7th European Framework Programme for research and technological development, we investigate the factors underlying the capacity to compete by integrating Industry 4.0 enabling technologies. The evidence shows that EU funding, centrality in research networks and interregional cooperation all play a significant role in technology integration, and these results have important policy implications.     

Fuel Economy Standards, New Vehicle Sales, and Average Fuel Efficiency

The average fuel efficiency of new automobiles sold in the United States increased substantially from 1975 to 1981. This trend stagnated in 1981, however, and average fuel efficiency has actually fallen since 1987. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards—the major policy tool in the United States directed at improving fuel efficiency—may have contributed to the stagnation and decline of average fuel efficiency by shifting automobile sales toward lower mileage vehicles. This paper illustrates how changes in vehicle sales act to dilute the intended effects of CAFE standards, and can actually lead to a decrease in average fuel efficiency.     

FOREIGN TAKEOVERS AND NEW INVESTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.
Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.
Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union-dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade policies.     

The United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks, 1980–1988

This paper analyzes the United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks by integrating their activities in these two markets with the regulatory environment for banks in Japan and Japan's overall external financial position, as well as with business opportunities in the two host countries. The paper concludes that the regulatory environment in Japan, including restraints on interest rates and possible quantitative restraints, has had an impact on activities of Japanese banks in these two foreign markets.Japanese banks appear to have adjusted to their domestic regulatory environment by using their London branches as a flexible funding source and their U.S. offices in extending commercial and industrial loans to Japan-based companies as well as a substitute location for interbank trading. In both markets Japanese banking offices are large net barrowers from unrelated banks because of constraints on raising funds in their homer market.     

FOREIGN TAKEOVERS AND NEW INVESTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.
Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.
Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union-dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade policies.     

日本创新体制的经验教训及其借鉴

导致日本战后经济成功的创新体制为什么要对近年来日本国际竞争力的不断下降负有重要责任?本文认为，日本创新体制在以工艺创新为主的渐进创新方面具有独特的优势，但由于日本目前在灵活生产方式、产业信息化和创造新产业方面所遭遇的严重困难，这种优势难以发挥。特别是，由于基础研究和大学体制等方面的落后，日本创新体制无法适应激进创新的要求，从而未能抓住跨越式科技发展的机遇。本文还通过日美比较和德美赶超英国经验的总结，扼要讨论了日本的经验教训对我国“科教兴国”战略所提供的重要启示。     

Patterns of factor-saving innovation in the industrialized world

An attempt is made in this study to empirically measure the impact of factor endowment on innovation trends. A large international sample of significant innovations was used, wherein each innovation is classified according to its perceived factor-saving impact, as seen by the innovating firm, the user and industry/market observers. Then, broad trends in labor-, material- and capital-saving innovation were measured in eight European nations, the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. International variations in these trends were correlated with international variations in relative factor cost levels. A very high degree of correlation was found, supporting the position that factor endowment significantly influences innovation trends in the industrialized world.     

Structure of Production,Economic Policy and Performance: the case of Japan,the Republic of Korea and the USA

Using input–output tables as well as a number of indices, this paper attempts to ascertain the degree of similarity of the structures of production of Japan, the Republic of Korea and the United States. The results indicate that Japanese and Korean economies are more similar than Japanese and US or Korean and US economies. There are two possible explanations for the similarity of the structures of production of Asian nations. First, technology transfer from Japan to Korea may have contributed to the similarity of the prevailing technologies in these nations. Secondly, the active industrial policies of Japanese and Korean governments over the past several decades may have played an important role in the structures and performances of these economies.     

美国《2014年科学与工程指标》概论——科技人力资源和科研产出

2014年2月,美国国家科学理事会发布了《2014年科学与工程指标》报告。该报告对近年来美国及其他国家和地区在科学、工程和技术、教育及经济领域的发展态势进行了定量分析。报告《概论》对有关内容进行了总汇,综合分析了国际社会与美国科技领域的发展情况。科技人力资源和科研产出的数据显示:全球科研人员的数量—直在快速增长,美国和欧盟分别约达140万和160万人,中国也已超过130万人;2010年,全球理工科学士学位获得人数550万,其中,欧盟占17%,美国占10%,中国占近1/4;2011年,全球发表科技论文82.8万篇,美国占26%,欧洲占31%,中国占11%;在所有科技领域内,美国发表的论文被高度引用;2012年,美国专利和商标局授予专利数超过25万件,其中,美国为12万件,日本5.1万件,欧盟3.6万件,中国5 351件。数据说明:越来越多的国家和地区日益重视增加科技投入和人才积累,美国在多个方面和指标上仍保持世界领先,部分发展中国家,尤其是中国,科技实力持续增强。     

World Exports of New and Used Automobiles: A Gravity Model Comparison among the European Union,Japan and the United States

This paper considers new and used automobile exports of the European Union, Japan and the United States within a gravity model framework. This standard framework has similar explanatory power for the new and used automobile exports of the European Union and the United States, as well as for the new automobile exports of Japan, but not for Japan's used automobile exports, a finding the paper associates with the importance of left-hand driving in determining the markets for Japan's used (but not ‘made to order’ new) automobile exports. The paper concludes that, while used automobiles are somewhat more important to lower income markets, controlling for discrimination and other factors, used automobile trade clearly supplements new automobile trade from the prospective of the importing country.     

International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement

We model the invention of new technologies and their diffusion across countries. In our model all countries grow at the same steady-state rate, with each country's productivity ranking determined by how rapidly it adopts ideas. Research effort is determined by how much ideas earn at home and abroad. Patents affect the return to ideas. We relate the decision to patent an invention internationally to the cost of patenting in a country and to the expected value of patent protection in that country. We can thus infer the direction and magnitude of the international diffusion of technology from data on international patenting, productivity, and research. We fit the model to data from the five leading research economies. A rough summary of our findings is that the world lies about two-thirds of the way from an extreme of technological autarky to an extreme of free trade in ideas. Research performed abroad is about two-thirds as potent as domestic research. Together the United States and Japan drive at least two-thirds of the growth in each of the countries in our sample.     

The Development and Diffusion of Radical Technological Innovation: The Role of Bus Demonstration Projects in Commercializing Fuel Cell Technology

North American, European and Japanese governments have legislated to control Greenhouse Gas emissions and have promoted alternative technology as part of strategies to address climate change. Governments worldwide have sought to encourage adoption of alternative automotive technology by funding demonstrations and in-service trials. Among other initiatives the automotive industry has explored applications of a radical technological innovation—fuel cells—to power a range of vehicles from forklifts to buses. This paper examines the rationale and actions of various stakeholders to facilitate adoption of fuel cell technology in vehicles through a specific market segment—that of fuel cell buses (FCBs)—and explores the progress of FCB projects in North America, Europe and Japan. It examines the role of demonstration projects and highlights the complexity of the relationship between government and developers, and the multifarious and conflicting objectives of industry players that inhibit progress.     

Arrested development: the experience of European hard disk drive firms in comparison with US and Japanese firms

This paper analyses how US, Japanese, and European HDD firms responded to technological shifts in the hard disk industry from 1973 through 1996. Leading incumbent US HDD firms were frequently forced out of the market. Leading Japanese incumbent firms in the same industry, however, were not displaced by these changes. US startup firms thrived under these technological shifts, displacing US incumbent firms. Japanese startups did poorly. European firms encountered the worst of both worlds: its incumbent firms were frequently displaced by technological changes, as were US firms; while startup firms (with one exception) performed as poorly as those in Japan.