Environmental and financial sustainability of air transport: Are they incompatible?

Many would consider that the current reliance on air transport is environmentally unsustainable, especially given its impacts on climate change and its use of non-renewable resources. In addition, financial sustainability is often seen as inconsistent with environmental sustainability. The conclusions here are otherwise. Air transport does contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, but the climate change problem is a general one, and while addressing it has a cost, this cost is minimised when air transport is required to bear the environmental costs that it imposes. The reliance on non-renewable resources does give rise to a sustainability problem. There is not likely to be a problem of lack of financial sustainability of the industry, though addressing environmental objective will lead to a reduction in performance in the short run. Both environmental and financial sustainability of air transport can be achieved, as long as efficient policies are adopted.     

The networkability of cities in the international air passenger flows 1992–2004

A modified social network analysis model was designed in this study for use in the examination of the international air network. By using this model in analyzing the networkability of cities, the connectivity of the air routes was estimated, using the air traffic and the number of air routes. Networkability is the quantitative measurement of the spatial interaction relationships in the international air network. Through this process, this study aims to analyze the structural changes of the global network in 1992 and 2004. As a result, it was observed that London, Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, and New York were class 1 cities that were at the top in both years. Tokyo was included in class 1 in 1992, but not in 2004. Rome, Zurich, Singapore, Los Angeles, and other cities were identified as the class 2 cities in 1992, while Singapore, Tokyo, Madrid, Hong Kong, Bangkok, etc. were identified as the class 2 cities in 2004. These cities occupy the center of the global network, and the class 1 cities are connected to the class 2 cities, which perform the function of hubs in each continent, thus uniting the whole world as one network.     

Evolution of air transport network of China 1930–2012

This paper analyzes the evolution process of the air transport network of China (ATNC) since 1930. Based on the network analysis results, the ATNC has significantly improved in connectivity based on (1) rising alpha, beta and gamma indices, (2) declining diameter and centre index and (3) decreasing average path length and increasing clustering coefficient. The network centralization index reveals a fluctuation phase before 1952, a pre-1980 centralization phase before the economic reform era, a centralization phase after the mid-1990s deregulation, and a decentralization phase between. The k-core decomposition method helps identify the evolution of core network and hierarchy of the ATNC over time. The spatial development model characterizes its structure change in six stages: (1) scattered development, (2) trunk line connection, (3) circular linkage, (4) hub formation, (5) a complex network structure, and (6) emerging multi-airport systems.     

The adjustment of international rail passenger services to new state boundaries – the Eastern Marchlands of Europe 1918–39

This paper considers the problems which confronted governments in restoring international railway services after the Peace Treaties of 1918–20 in the Eastern Marchlands of Europe, namely the states of Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Austria, Romania and Yugoslavia. The states which emerged from the old Austro-Hungarian Empire inherited railway networks which did not meet their needs, necessitating new construction for which funds were scarce. The railway infrastructure had been damaged by war and lack of maintenance again requiring substantial investment. The service patterns are compared by means of a city pairs analysis which examines minimum frequencies/journey times between five capital cities – Warsaw, Prague, Vienna, Budapest and Belgrade between 1925 and 1935. An examination of border delays is also undertaken for the same period. © 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

The application of a neural network approach to predicting bankruptcy risks facing the major US air carriers: 1979–1996

Airline bankruptcy, an unheard of event prior to the deregulation of the US airline industry, has become rather commonplace. Over 123 air carriers have filed receivership since 1982, and several large carriers have sought court protection more than once in the past decade. In spite of record airline profits over the past two years, the financial condition of many carriers still remains fragile. The huge financing requirements of the industry over the next decade, driven by the carriers’ need to replace aging fleets of aircraft, will create further stress for many. The ability to assess the level of this financial stress is important to many groups, including stockholders, bondholders, other creditors, financial analysts, governmental regulatory bodies, and the general public. For this reason, models that can forecast financial distress are useful. Building on prior research by several of the authors, who utilized multiple discriminant models driven by financial ratios, a neural network approach is employed to increase the reliability of the forecasts. In this paper, a neural net is trained with the result that it successfully classifies 26 out of 26 carriers in the holdout (test) set.     

Environmental sustainability,airport capacity and European air transport liberalization: irreconcilable goals?

The general aim of this paper is to discuss the apparently irreconcilable tensions that exist between policies for air transport liberalization in the European Union (EU), those directed at environmental sustainability, and the inadequacy of plans for additional airport capacity and modal shift to meet projected growth in air transport. The paper analyses the contradictory responses of the major stakeholders in the air transport industry to these problems, concentrating in particular on the environmentally incompatible strategies adopted by airlines in the competitive market-place. It concludes that environmentally driven capacity constraints at airports will effectively determine air transport's development within the EU, and that current laissez-faire attitudes of airlines and their regulators are unlikely to prevail as 'polluter pays' principles are more firmly implemented.     

Impact of high speed rail on housing values: an observation from the Beijing–Shanghai line

This study investigates the ex post impact of the Beijing–Shanghai high speed rail (BJHSR) on housing values. A dataset including 1016 housing communities from the 22 cities along the BJHSR line are analyzed in the tradition of the hedonic pricing model using three estimation procedures: a robust ordinary-least square regression, a Box-Cox transformation technique and a spatial econometric model. After controlling for physical characteristics of housing property, neighboring environment and locational accessibility, the study finds that the establishment of the BJHSR service has a considerable regional impact (including local effects and spillover effects) on housing values in medium and small cities but a negligible impact in larger capital cities. This may be the results of the competitive nature of housing market in Chinese capital cities.     

Classification and competition analysis of air cargo logistics providers: The case of Taiwan’s high-technology industry

This paper classifies air cargo logistics providers allowing analysis of high-technology manufacturers’ choices of providers. Data are collected from high-technology manufacturers in Taiwan’s science parks. Forwarder providers are put into three categories and nested logit model are applied to explore what service performance factors influence high-technology manufacturers when selecting third party logistics providers. Delivery is found to be the most important factor. It is found, for example, that two express providers with high levels of customer satisfaction and market share could compete more effectively by exercising differential strategies.     

Out of Prague: a week-long intermodal shift from air to rail transport after Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010

In April 2010, the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull considerably disrupted air travel across Europe. The grounding of air transport forced passengers to cancel journeys or find alternative means of transport. We analyse short-term intermodal shifts as a reaction to sudden changes in air transport availability. The question addressed is whether, and in what capacity, air passengers used railways when Prague International Airport was closed. To compare the degree of intermodal shift in Prague for particular European destinations during the closure, we calculated an InterModal Shift Index. We concluded that approximately 20% of passengers travelling to neighbouring countries and 6% of passengers travelling to more distant European destinations chose rail as an alternative. Following the airport closure, travellers were willing to choose rail transport as an alternative, but this willingness varies for different countries and areas.     

Liberalization of China–US air transport market: Assessing the impacts of the 2004 and 2007 protocols

This paper examines China's considerations in reaching the 2004 and 2007 Air Service Agreement Protocols with the United States (US) and the impacts of such policy on the China–US market from the perspective of China. Analysis shows that the 2004 and 2007 protocols have profound impacts on the China–US market. The two protocols have been associated with phenomenal traffic growth and intensified competition. Passengers also benefit from much more choice in terms of both airlines and routing. Over time, Chinese carriers' operating performance and financial performance have gradually improved after the liberalization expressed in the protocols. However, the industry's hub-building initiatives are still seriously challenged by competing hubs in Seoul and Tokyo which have diverted substantial number of passengers moving between the China and US markets. Such issues have to be addressed in order to create a win–win outcome for both countries.     

The development of the Gulf region’s air transport networks – The first century

This paper employs the concepts of centrality, intermediacy and proximity to explain the evolution of air transport networks in Asia and applies them to the region surrounding the Arabian Gulf. In doing so the paper provides a structured, historical account of the development of air transport in a region that occupied a central place for important trade routes for thousands of years. The paper argues that there has been a “principal axis shift” so that the role of the region is no longer defined as an intermediate section of the east-west routes. Indeed, the region has come to re-occupy a central place in trade and travel flows serving a fundamentally changed global aviation network building upon the economic and social development within the region.     

Algebraic connectivity maximization of an air transportation network: The flight routes’ addition/deletion problem

A common metric to measure the robustness of a network is its algebraic connectivity. This paper introduces the flight routes addition/deletion problem and compares three different methods to analyze and optimize the algebraic connectivity of the air transportation network. The Modified Greedy Perturbation algorithm (MGP) provides a local optimum in an efficient iterative manner. The Weighted Tabu Search (WTS) is developed for the flight routes addition/deletion problem to offer a better optimal solution with longer computation time. The relaxed semidefinite programming (SDP) is used to set a performance upper bound and then three rounding techniques are applied to obtain feasible solutions. The simulation results show the trade-off among the Modified Greedy Perturbation, Weighted Tabu Search and relaxed SDP, with which we can decide the appropriate algorithm to adopt for maximizing the algebraic connectivity of the air transportation networks of different sizes. Finally a real air transportation network of Virgin America is investigated.     

Exploring causality in trade and air passenger travel relationships: the case of Asia-Pacific, 1980–2010

This paper explores the potential of heterogeneous Granger analysis in transport geography research by applying this method to a specific case of the often complex and potentially reciprocal linkages between the deployment of transport infrastructures and spatial economic development: the linkages between rising intra-regional volumes of trade and air passenger traffic in Asia-Pacific. Although conceptual and empirical linkages between both indicators can be assumed based on previous research, relatively little is known about the actual causality. Using heterogeneous Time Series Cross Section Granger causality analysis for the period 1980–2010, we explore the presence of four ‘causality scenarios’ amongst different country-pairs: (1) there is no co-evolution, implying that both patterns develop independently (e.g. Japan–Australia); (2) there is ‘real’ co-evolution in that both patterns influence each other through feedback loops (e.g. South Korea–Philippines); (3) air passenger traffic is facilitated by trade (e.g., South Korea–Philippines); or (4) trade is facilitated by air passenger traffic (e.g. Australia–Malaysia). Some tentative interpretations of this heterogeneity are offered.     

The Northeast Asian air transport network: is there a possibility of creating Open Skies in the region?

Unlike in the US and the European Union aviation markets, the Northeast Asian markets are still very fragmented. As a result, the passenger and air freight collection/distribution systems in the region are very inefficiently organized. The primary reason for the inefficient and inconvenient air carrier networks in the region is the restrictive bilateral air services agreements between Asian countries. This paper documents the nature and extent of the restrictive bilateral agreements among China, Japan and Korea, evaluates several bilateral or trilateral approaches for liberalizing the regional air transport markets, and makes a proposal which would increase substantially the probability of achieving an Open Skies market in the region. In particular, the current approach to liberalize the bilateral air services agreements among China, Korea and Japan has limitations even in the medium term because of China's and, to a less extent, Japan's reluctance to remove price and capacity restrictions. Therefore, as an institutional solution we propose to create bi-national (for bilateral negotiations) or tri-national (for trilateral negotiations) ‘Trade and Transport Facilitation Committees’, that can pursue a practical avenue to tie air transport negotiations with those of other goods and services trade.     

Integration of HSR and air transport: Understanding passengers’ preferences

Different solutions for the integration of high-speed rail (HSR) and air transport could be implemented, ranging from very basic integration to more sophisticated systems which include ticket and handling integration. A discrete choice experiment is conducted to better understand passengers’ preferences. We estimate a number of flexible choice models, taking into account the existence of systematic and random taste heterogeneity. We obtain a range of willingness-to-pay values for service quality attributes, finding some important results that can be used to infer policy conclusions about the real attractiveness of the Air–HSR integrated alternative. In this respect, we find that schedule coordination which reduces connecting time will be crucial.     

An Interperiod Network Storage Location–Allocation (INSLA) model for rail distribution of ethanol biofuels

In response to the US federal renewable fuels standards, new ethanol plants of varying sizes are being established in the US. The transportation challenge is to decide on how best to move raw materials to these existing and new ethanol plants, and to ship the fuel from the ethanol plants to markets around the country. In this paper, we extend the Interperiod Network Storage Location–Allocation (INSLA) model formulation into a Rail-INSLA model to address the transportation/transshipment issues associated with the rail distribution of ethanol biofuels that include: transporting less than unit train quantities from each plant, developing new sidings at ethanol plants to accommodate a unit train, and determining the optimal number and locations for carrier operated terminals for the agglomeration of less than unit train size shipments into unit train shipments.     

The ASEAN multilateral agreement on air services: En route to open skies?

The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations recently adopted a Multilateral Agreement on Air Services that seeks to liberalize market access and ownership and control requirements for air carriers in the region. The Agreement is a precursor to an eventual Single Aviation Market arrangement targeted for 2015. This article analyzes the key provisions of the Agreement and identifies the factors that will likely impact on the future SAM. In particular, there is uncertainty as to whether the SAM will go beyond third, fourth and fifth freedom relaxations to include important seventh freedom rights as well as more permissive ownership and control structures for air carriers. There are also lingering concerns over the loss of state sovereignty impacting on attempts to harmonize safety and technical standards, aviation security and competition policy.