FISCAL POLICY, ADJUSTMENT COSTS, AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH

This paper develops a one-sector endogenous growth model inwhich investment incurs convex adjustment costs. Conditionsfor the existence of a balanced growth path are discussed. Fiscalissues are analyzed in a circumstance in which the governmentuses tax revenues to finance public expenditures that impacton both the productivity of the existing capital stock, andadjustments costs. The effect of these costs on the equilibriumgrowth rate and on the effectiveness of fiscal policy is discussed.Optimal fiscal policy is derived and the role of adjustmentcosts and congestion in determining the trade-off between differenttaxes is considered.     

Catching up with the Technology Frontier: Finnish Manufacturing Productivity, 1975–2003

Abstract

Labour productivity in Finnish manufacturing industry grew at the rapid average annual rate of 5 per cent from 1975 to 2003. The labour productivity growth was broad-based, or yeast-like, in the 1970s and 1980s, with contributions from multi-factor productivity gains in the paper and metal industries dominating. In the 1990s productivity growth was much more mushroom-like, that is, concentrated in the electronics industry. The level of labour productivity in Finnish manufacturing matched that of the USA by the end of the second millennium. Labour costs and unit labour costs remained at only three-quarters of the US level, although real hourly compensation increased steadily. After 1995 manufacturing industry constituted a quarter of the Finnish economy but contributed a third of overall economic growth.     

New,disaggregated, British railway total factor productivity growth estimates, 1875 to 19121

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Britain's railways in the last part of the nineteenth century and the first decade of the twentieth has been widely studied, not least because it can throw light on the question of the causes of overall slowdown in industrial growth. This article is concerned with the detailed mechanics of measuring TFP growth and with the use of results to compare growth across different companies. The article disaggregates TFP growth between different activities performed by railway companies (provision of locomotive power, operation of carriages and wagons, provision of permanent way, and working of traffic), and it also develops detailed measures of capital stock and capital costs using disaggregate data on assets employed in each activity. These improvements to existing methodology reduce, rather than increase, existing estimates of TFP growth. Consequently the results confirm the previously observed conclusion that productivity growth was slow. They show that while there were significant increases in goods train operating efficiency in the first decade of the twentieth century, the additional resources that were employed meant that these increases were slow to translate into overall TFP growth.     

Population trends,employment levels,economic performance,and income evolution in East and West Germany since unification

Between 1989 and 1996, former East Germany experienced a population loss of more than 1 million inhabitants as hundreds of thousands of East Germans moved to former West Germany. Population growth in East Germany sank dramatically, since 1995, however, since 1995, this trend has been reversed and today more children are born than in the preceding year.The number of gainfully employed East Germans shrank between 1989 and 1993 by 3.5 million. Job loss hit female employees, who in East Germany prior to 1989 formed a part of the job force in proportion to their number, especially hard. In 1994 and 1995, employment increased in the East German states, but job growth did not extend into 1996 as economic growth, which sustained a process of “catching up” with West Germany, failed to maintain its dynamism.Economic performance disparity between East and West Germany is very large. Although productivity increased significantly in former East Germany, wage costs outran productivity growth. Per capita income in East Germany in 1991 was 49 percent of per capital income in West Germany and as of 1994 per capita income had reached 66 percent of its West German equivalent.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY,AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Financial development might lead to productivity improvement in developing countries. In the present study, based on the Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we use the Malmquist index to measure China's total factor productivity change and its two components (i.e., efficiency change and technical progress). We find that China has recorded an increase in total factor productivity from 1993 to 2001, and that productivity growth was mostly attributed to technical progress, rather than to improvement in efficiency. Moreover, using panel dataset covering 29 Chinese provinces over the period from 1993 to 2001 and applying the Generalized Method of Moment system estimation, we investigate the impact of financial development on productivity growth in China. Empirical results show that, during this period, financial development has significantly contributed to China's productivity growth, mainly through its favorable effect on efficiency.     

A GROWTH MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

We examine the South African growth experience during 1960‐2005 using an intertemporal growth model. The model combines old growth theory investment dynamics and new growth theory endogenous productivity growth. The consumption and investment decisions are intertemporal and assume open capital markets. Structural change is captured by separating the traded and nontraded sectors, and sectoral productivity growth is determined in a barriers‐to‐growth framework. Calibration of the model shows how the growth experience combines neoclassical convergence, technology spillovers with barriers and productivity‐investment interaction. Counterfactual analysis shows the growth costs of sanctions and protectionism. The suggested model is an alternative to existing growth modelling in South Africa, in which investments are short‐sighted and productivity growth is imposed exogenously.     

The Contribution of Associate's Degree Holders to U.S. Earnings,Labor Quality,Productivity, and Overall Economic Growth

There is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings, productivity, and economic growth. However, knowledge of the specific role of associate's degrees in U.S. economic growth is limited. We analyze the sources of U.S. economic growth and identify the contribution of associate's degree holders to improvements in earnings, labor quality, productivity, and overall economic growth. We find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate's degrees has increased U.S. earnings, aggregate labor quality, and productivity, and that these effects are concentrated in the health care, trade, and government sectors. While the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued, our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings, the quality of the workforce, productivity, and growth, potentially without more time spent in school.     

Productivity Growth and Some of Its Determinants in the Deregulated U.S. Railroad Industry

This study analyzes the effects of an important postderegulation innovation on rail freight productivity: the elimination of cabooses and related crew members. It also analyzes the overall growth of productivity in rail freight between 1983 and 1997 (using a translog rail cost function estimated over a sample of Class I railroads between 1983 and 1997). The results indicate that elimination of cabooses and associated crew members from freight trains reduced costs by 5-8% on the typical Class I railroad in 1997, equivalent to an annual cost saving of $2 billion to $3.3 billion for all Class I railroads. Moreover, if Class I railroads had no other technological advances since 1983, their 1997 costs (with 1997 factor prices) would have been 36-43% higher than they in fact were. Finally, the results show that overall productivity growth in rail freight did not decelerate between 1983 and 1997; if anything, it accelerated slightly.     

Transactional activities and total factor productivity growth in Taiwan

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth shows how rapidly an economy is enhancing technology and the efficiency with which it allocates resources. It has been argued that “miraculous” growth in East Asian economies may not be sustainable, due to relatively low rates of TFP growth. Among these economies, it appears that Taiwan has indeed exhibited substantial technological progress. Failure to control for transactional activities, however, can distort the impression of TFP growth. This study recalculates Taiwan's TFP growth for the 1957–1993 sample period, adjusting for transaction costs in the government and private sectors. For the early years of the sample, 1957–1973, the economy's technological progress is better than GDP-based calculations suggest. In recent years, 1983–1993, productivity improvement has been overstated, but the economy has still exhibited relatively fast TFP growth.     

Interindustry effects of productivity growth in Japan: 1960–2000

Combining conventional sectoral growth accounting and the static open input–output price model, we analyze the sources of growth of product prices in Japan during the period 1960–2000. Using the input–output framework, we take into account not only the effects of factor costs and productivity within a sector, but also their impacts outside of the sector. We find that Japan's deflation in the 1990s was characterized by low growth of wage rates, low productivity growth, and a low rate of return on capital. Until 1990, productivity improvements compensated for factor cost pressures on output price, especially the rapid growth of labor cost. In contrast, during the 1990s, decreasing rates of return on capital, not productivity improvements, canceled out the inflationary effect of wage growth. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 568–585.     

Roots of growth and productivity change in Dutch shipping industry, 1500–1800

Shipping was one of the most dynamic industries of the pre industrial period. The article presents detailed estimates of the growth of output and inputs of the shipping industry in the Netherlands between 1500 and 1800. These are used to study the development of productivity in two ways: by comparing output with inputs (labour and capital), and by analysing the relationship between output prices and input prices. Both methods lead to different results, which we explain. It appears that productivity in this sector increased strongly between ca. 1550 and 1620 as a result of technological and institutional changes, such as the increased efficiency of the network of shipping routes. After 1620 labour productivity continued to increase because of factor substitution as wages increased much more than capital costs. The competitiveness of the Dutch shipping sector did not improve anymore after ca. 1650, however, which helps to explain why its rapid growth came to an end in the second half of the 17th century.     

Aging Workforce,Firm Productivity and Labor Costs in Korea: Are Older Workers Costly to Firms?

Are older workers costly to firms? This study aims to investigate the relationship between an aging workforce on firm productivity and labor costs using a unique Korean firm‐level panel dataset (WPS) covering the period from 2007 to 2011. The primary results show no evidence of a negative relationship between the proportion of older workers and firm productivity, and no significant relationship between the proportion of older workers and labor costs. In addition, the findings of this study implies that failure to account for unobserved firm heterogeneity and endogeneity of changes in age structure biases the results toward finding a correlation between the age structure of workers and firm productivity and labor costs. Consequently, there is a tendency to underestimate the true value of older workers for firms.     

Aging,automation, and productivity in Korea

This paper examines the impact of aging in the Republic of Korea on productivity as measured by labor productivity or total factor productivity (TFP). It also assesses the effect of robot adoption on the relation between aging and productivity using industrial level data. We find that aging is negatively associated with labor productivity and TFP growth. This is true particularly when aging is measured by increases in shares of old workers. If aging is measured by increases in the median age of workers, the negative effect is weaker. Evidence also suggests that robot technology mitigates aging's negative effect on productivity growth, particularly when productivity is measured by TFP. However, there is no evidence that robots are more heavily adopted in aged industries. While robot technology does not directly contribute to higher productivity growth, our findings suggest that the robot adoption can alleviate the negative impact of aging by helping workers in their 50s and 60s contribute less adversly to productivity growth.     

Productivity Growth,Technical Progress and Efficiency Change in African Agriculture

Abstract: The paper examines the economic performance of a large number of African countries using an international comparable data set and the latest technique for analysis. The paper focuses on growth in total factor productivity and its decomposition into technical change and efficiency change components. The analysis is undertaken using the data envelopment analysis (DEA). The present study uses data of 16 countries over the period 1970–2001. It was found that, globally, during that period, total factor productivity has experienced a positive evolution in sampled countries. This good performance of the agricultural sector was due to good progress in technical efficiency rather than technical progress. The region suffered a regression in productivity in the 1970s, and made some progress during the 1980s and 1990s. The study also highlights the fact that technical change has been the main constraint of achievement of high levels of total factor productivity during the reference period in sub‐Saharan Africa. Contrariwise, in Maghreb countries, technological change has been the main driving force of productivity growth. Finally, the results indicate that institutional factors as well as agro‐ecological factors are important determinants of agricultural productivity growth.     

价格贸易条件变动、进口关税削减与中国加入WTO的生产率效应

本文使用中国加入WTO之后的2002～2009年数据,构建面板数据模型来检验了价格贸易条件变动动和进口关税削减对产出和全员劳动生产率的影响。我们的检验结果表明,价格贸易条件的改善显著地促进了我国生产率的增长,价格贸易条件对生产率的影响体现为一种结构效应和资源配置效应的综合。在结构效应和资源配置效应总体为正的情形下,价格贸易条件的波动才能体现出正的生产率效应。进口关税水平的削减对我国生产率的影响为负,因为削减进口关税税率所推动的进口贸易的增长,在很大程度上带来的负的竞争效应要大于其所带来的技术溢出效应。本文的研究对于我国进一步改革开放战略,尤其是对我国进行区域间的经贸合作或者建立自由贸易区都有着一定的启示。     

Trade Barriers,Openness, and Economic Growth

Using a long data set on openness and productivity, this article tests the influence of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and per capita growth since 1870 for 16 industrialized countries. It is shown, in simple regressions, that growth is, by and large, independent of openness. However, once the interaction between openness and foreign knowledge is allowed for, productivity is positively affected by openness.     

An Empirical Analysis of Productivity in Philippine Agriculture, 1974–2000

Using recent agricultural data sets, we estimate a non-neutral and non-homothetic translog variable cost function to empirically investigate Philippine agricultural productivity. Overall, the annual average productivity growth rate is 0.51 percent. The highest productivity level is observed during the post-Green Revolution period (1974–1980). Thereafter, productivity growth shows a discernible decline up until the late 1990s. This indicates that productivity level during the Green Revolution era has not been sustained or paralleled, despite substantial policy changes put in place since 1986 to invigorate the agricultural sector. The government should therefore continue to promote technological progress in Philippine agriculture; however, this may require redirection of its present policy by placing more emphasis on productivity-enhancing investments, such as research and development, irrigation and other infrastructure.     

Multinational Enterprises,Technology Diffusion,and Host Country Absorptive Capacity: A Note

Abstract

Previous empirical studies show mixed support for the hypothesis that the impact of technology diffusion from multinational enterprises (MNEs) on host country productivity growth depends on host country absorptive capacity. One explanation is that the results of these empirical studies are sensitive to the measures of absorptive capacity used. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating average years of schooling and total factor productivity gap as measures of host country absorptive capacity in 38 developed and developing countries. Panel data regression equations are estimated using a cross-sectionally heteroskedastic and timewise autoregressive (CHTA) model. The paper has two main results. The first result does not support the hypothesis that the technology diffusion from MNEs has a positive impact on the productivity growth in developing countries. The second result is that the total factor productivity gap is more appropriate than average years of schooling to measure host country absorptive capacity. This may suggest that the results of previous studies that used average years of schooling should be interpreted with caution.     

The Effect of Public Infrastructure on Cost Structure and Performance of Chinese Provinces*

This paper estimates a translog cost function for 29 Chinese provinces between 1979 and 2018. The results imply that investment in public infrastructure reduces costs in all provinces. Comparing the estimated rate of return to infrastructure with the rate of return to private capital, our results indicate underinvestment for the initial period after the economic reforms; however, after 2010 our results show overinvestment in infrastructure. Infrastructure capital is a substitute input to labor, private capital and intermediate inputs. Finally, public infrastructure growth contributes positively to labor and total factor productivity growth, but the effect is small. The growth of private capital and intermediate inputs are the most important factors that boost the growth of labor productivity.     

Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Productivity Growth: An Examination of the Brynjolfsson–Hitt Proposition

This study investigates what happened to productivity growth during the Information Technology (IT) revolution in an IT-driven economy, Korea. To this end, we have decomposed the source of productivity growth into technological change, technical efficiency and scale economies using a stochastic frontier function and examined how the composition of productivity growth has changed with different phases of IT developments. We have used panel data that is comprised of 4022 firms from 1996 to 2000. We have found that Korean firms have been quick to embrace organizational restructuring to adapt to a new business environment brought about by IT, which seems to be the major source of the success of Korean firms. We have also found that: (i) there is no substantial difference in productivity gains between IT-producing firms and IT-using firms; (ii) productivity growth is more robust to business cycles in an IT-driven economy than in the traditional economy; and (iii) efficiency improvement attributed to organizational transformation plays a greater role in productivity growth as IT applications become more widespread.