The effect of disability pension incentives on early retirement decisions

I investigate the incentive effects of disability pensions on disability retirement entry as a special type of early retirement. The implicit tax rate on further work is included as a forward looking incentive measure. A substantial change of the disability pension legislation caused exogenous variation in disability benefits in Germany in 2001 and is used to obtain estimates of individual's responses to financial incentives. Benefit levels appear to have no effect on the labour market behaviour. At the same time, there is a sizable and significant disincentive effect of implicit taxes on labour market income, indicating that alleviating such disincentives would likely increase labour force participation. Since the response to financial incentives occurs mainly among those in good health, such a policy might on the other hand imperil the aim of providing insurance against a health‐induced loss of one's working capacity.     

South Korean Labor Market Discrimination Against Women: Estimating Its Cost

A bstract . South Korean chaebols (large family owned firms) have extensive government ties which provide them with favorable treatment. In turn, the government obtains support from the chaebols. The chaebols have gained economic or excess profits through exploiting monopolistic power in the domestic South Korean product market and through exploiting monopsonistic power in the domestic factor market.
How a monopsonistic firm obtains excess profits is illustrated and related to the behavior of the chaebols as a whole. Major focus is on the labor market. The chaebols have discretionary power over how to exploit their monopsonistic position. The status of women in the South Korean work force in light of this discretionary power is considered. An estimate of the income loss involved is made.     

Optimal financial contracts with hidden effort,unobservable profits and endogenous costs of effort

This paper studies financial contracting in a two-period financing model with double moral hazard, as entrepreneurial effort choices and profits are unobservable and non-verifiable. The optimal financial contract must induce both the high effort level and truthful revelation of profits. The paper further analyses the structure of the optimal contract where the entrepreneur's payoff takes a general functional form that allows for endogenously determined costs of effort. The entrepreneur's performance is influenced by not only extrinsic work motivation factors but also intrinsic factors so that the degree of control imposed by the investor, in the form of end-of-period transfers, affects the entrepreneur's costs of effort. The finding shows that under well-defined conditions, the optimal contract that solves a model with non-verifiable profits also elicits effort, and generally resembles a simple debt contract. The structure of the optimal contract is robust in the general case where the entrepreneur's payoff function is non-linear in transfers.     

延迟退休、生育政策调整与中国经济增长

政府在放松生育政策的同时，配合退休政策的调整具有重要的现实意义。通过构建延迟退休和生育调整的理论模型发现：从劳动力增量看，延迟退休能够产生即期效应，而生育调整具有滞后效应，且两者导致的劳动力增量差距呈现先扩大后缩小的特点，节点在2031年；从社会总负担看，在实行延迟退休后，总抚养比迅速下降到一个低水平位置；从总产出看，同时实施延迟退休和放松生育政策，经济中潜在的福利损失最小；从产出增速看，放开生育的同时配合延迟退休，经济增速下降最慢；从人均产出看，放开生育的同时最好配合延迟退休，否则人均收入提升的效果不如政策不变时效果。     

Retirement policies: Evidence of the need for change

Although flexible retirement is widely advocated in the professional literature, a recent survey indicates little movement toward flexibility at the operating level. Human resource managers perceive limited top management support for flexibility. Educational and research efforts are needed to improve retirement policies and more effectively utilize an aging work force.     

The great recession and changes in faculty expected retirement age

The great recession of 2008 has shifted retirement plans of workers in general. This paper examines the changes in expected retirement age following the great recession of 2008 of a subset of the labor force—university faculty who are near retirees and participate in a defined contribution retirement plan. We find evidence consistent with the life-cycle model which predicts changes in expected retirement age when there are unexpected changes in retirement wealth. For the faculty who expected to delay planned retirement, the average delay is 4 years. Regression estimates indicate a longer time horizon moderates the delay in expected retirement. We also find evidence that expected wealth at retirement amplifies the delay in expected retirement age while current value of retirement wealth moderates the delay in planned retirement.     

Retirement,financial incentives and health

This paper aims to assess empirically the relative size of incentive effects and health for the retirement decision. We specify and estimate a dynamic model for retirement behaviour that explicitly takes account of health and eligibility conditions and replacement rates of alternative exit routes from the labour force. A range of health instruments are constructed from estimates of a model for health dynamics and these are used to assess the effect of reporting errors and of endogeneity of health on the estimates of the retirement model. Our results provide evidence that health and retirement are endogenously related. Health matters but the size of the health effect depends crucially on the health measure used. We find that subjective health measures overstate the effect of health on retirement and that endogeneity of health suppresses the health effect. Incentive effects are relatively insensitive to alternative specifications for health. The incentive effects are strong for early retirement (ER) schemes. There is evidence that income streams in alternative exit routes are compared in the retirement decision and that alternative exit routes act as substitutes.     

Going Off Script: How Managers Make Sense of the Ending of Their Careers

The extant retirement literature primarily focuses on factors that influence the decision to retire and the generic retirement decision‐making process. While these approaches have extended our understanding of retirement decision‐making, we propose a sensemaking perspective that orients our attention towards the subjective meanings people attach to the factors that trigger the retirement decision, rather than simply the factors themselves. Accordingly, we see the retirement decision‐making process as bounded by situational constraints and rooted in identity work. Based on interviews with 48 retired Canadian executives and managers, we use thematic narrative analysis to identify six types of end‐of‐career narratives. Drawing on these narratives, we present a model of identity work that distinguishes between retirement decision‐making factors that are perceived as identity opportunities and those that are perceived as identity threats. Our findings contribute to scholarly understanding of subjective meanings and identity considerations in the process of ending one's career.     

Firms,shareholders, and financial markets

We study the influence of the financial market on the decisions of firms in the real market. To that end, we present a model in which the shareholders’ portfolio selection of assets and the decisions of the publicly traded firms are integrated through the market process. Financial access alters the objective function of the firms, and the market interaction of shareholders substantially influences firms’ behavior in the real sector. After characterizing the unique equilibrium, we show that the financial sector integrates the preferences of all shareholders into the decisions for production and ownership structure. The participation from investors in the financial market also limits the firms’ ability to manipulate real prices, i.e., there is a loss of market power in the real sector. Note that, while the loss of market power changes expected profits, it is not detrimental to shareholders since the expected return of equity share depends on the variance (and not the mean) of profits. Indeed, any change in expected profits is absorbed by the financial price. We also show that financial access increases production, thereby altering the distribution of profits. In particular, financial access induces firms to take on more risk. Finally, financial access makes the relationship between risk-aversion and risk-taking ambiguous. For example, it is possible that an increase in risk-aversion leads to more risk-taking, i.e., the variance of real profits increases.     

金融危机后券商的理财顾问业务发展分析

理财顾问业务是逐渐从券商发展出来的一个新型业务,它也是券商增加利润的重要来源。应大力拓展我国券商的理财顾问业务,使得我国券商的理财顾问业务快速发展壮大,成为我国资本市场的又一重要力量。     

Estimation of market power in the presence of firm level inefficiencies

“The quiet life hypothesis” (QLH) by Hicks (1935) argues that, due to management’s subjective cost of reaching optimal profits, firms use their market power to allow inefficient allocation of resources. Increasing competitive pressure is therefore likely to force management to work harder to reach optimal profits. Another hypothesis, which also relates market power to efficiency is “the efficient structure hypothesis” (ESH) by Demsetz (1973). ESH argues that firms with superior efficiencies or technologies have lower costs and therefore higher profits. These firms are assumed to gain larger market shares which lead to higher concentration. Ignoring the efficiency levels of the firms in a market power model might cause both estimation and interpretation problems. Unfortunately, the literature on market power measurement largely ignores this relationship. In the context of a dynamic setting, we estimate the market power of US airlines in two city-pairs by both allowing inefficiencies of the firms and not allowing inefficiencies of the firms. Using industry level cost data, we estimate the cost function parameters and time-varying efficiencies. An instrumental variables version of the square root Kalman filter is used to estimate time-varying conduct parameters.     

Worker characteristics,job characteristics,and opportunities for phased retirement

This paper uses a telephone survey of 950 employers to examine employer-side restrictions on phased retirement. The survey not only collected information on establishment level policies, but it also asked questions about a specific worker's opportunity for phased retirement. The paper uses these data to first establish that employers are selective when offering opportunities for phased retirement. It then examines what worker and job characteristics are particularly important in the selection process.     

Heroes in collision: Chief executive retirement and the parade of future leaders

The exit and legacy of leaders can have an impact which rivals the reign of a leader. While leaders' retirement is important to us all, we know little about its dynamics. This article is part of a large research project on 200 retiring leaders. Three core dimensions of leaders' retirement are discussed.     

Predicting Retirement Upon Eligibility: An Embeddedness Perspective

Concern over the impact of baby‐boomers' retirement on needed skills and proprietary knowledge has stimulated an interest in identifying workplace factors associated with retirement upon eligibility. Drawing from embeddedness theory, the authors identify work‐based antecedents potentially underlying a related, but distinct, form of withdrawal—retirement upon eligibility. The authors generate and test hypotheses regarding the impact of fit‐, sacrifice‐, and links‐related antecedents using a prospective study design and a national probability sample of some 500 older individuals who, at the time of the initial interview, were within months of becoming—for the first time—eligible to receive such benefits. The findings indicate that, beyond the effects of person‐based antecedents (e.g., age, health, assets, expected retirement income), a combination of fit‐ (i.e., job challenge), sacrifice‐ (i.e., perceived organizational support), and links‐related factors (i.e., stability of close workplace peer relations) have a substantial influence on the decision to retire upon eligibility. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Uncertainty,hiring and firing costs,and the determinants of profit‐sharing rules

We consider a firm run by a manager who acts on behalf of shareholders. The firm produces a commodity whose demand evolves stochastically over time. The firm's employees possess firm‐specific skills and knowledge and thus can bargain over profits with shareholders immediately before the firm hires or fires workers. The firm will distribute more portions of profits to employees when it incurs higher costs to hire or fire workers. In addition, as uncertainty in demand increases, the firm will distribute smaller (larger) portions of profits to employees if the firm does not have the option to fire (hire) workers.     

Human Resource Approaches to Retirement: Gatekeeping,Improvising, Orchestrating,and Partnering

This qualitative study examines the patterns in human resource (HR) approaches to retirement across 24 organizations to explore innovative practices as well as gain understanding of the differences in how firms are dealing with major changes surrounding retirement and workforce demographics. Using organizational adaptation theory and carrying out a thorough analysis of in‐depth interviews with HR managers, we identify three dimensions that differentiate organizations’ approaches to retirement: (1) actions and interactions of key stakeholders in the retirement process; (2) HR information gathering focus regarding workforce issues; and (3) HR posture around changes needed in retirement policies and practices. Based on organizational profiles on these dimensions, four distinct approaches to retirement emerge and are described in some detail: gatekeeping, improvising, orchestrating, and partnering. These different approaches also provide insight into how organizations differ in their adaptation to change. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Preserving knowledge legacies: workforce aging,turnover and human resource issues in the US electric power industry

The aging of the workforce is believed to be a potential threat to productivity of companies both in the US and worldwide. High levels of turnover that may result from workforce aging could cause short-term as well as permanent loss of knowledge critical to firm operations and customer service. While there is a wealth of research regarding the causes of turnover, there is comparatively little research on the actual effects of turnover, particularly involuntary forms of turnover such as retirement. Focusing on the US electric power industry, whose employees have average ages and company tenures among the highest in the world, this paper explores the aging workforce issue both qualitatively and quantitatively. Results from an executive survey encompassing companies representing over 75 per cent of the industry's workers affirm that workforce aging is the electricity industry's dominant human resource (HR) concern but that it is interrelated with many other top HR issues, including skill shortages, leadership, and transition from an ‘entitlement-based’ to a ‘performance-based’ culture. Implications of prior literature on organizational learning, turnover and socio-technical systems theories are discussed, and propositions are offered as a framework for further research on the general effects of potential knowledge loss due to aging-related turnover.     

Retirement and social security: the roles of self-fulfilling expectations and educational investments

Countries with higher implicit taxes on continued work are associated with lower labor force participation rates of the elderly. This paper constructs a politico-economic model that accounts for this feature based on multiple, self-fulfilling expectations of agents. In this model, agents are identical at birth and can become skilled (or remain unskilled) through educational investment. When agents hold expectations of larger social security benefits, it provides a disincentive to engage in educational investment, thereby resulting in an unskilled majority. In turn, this unskilled majority supports larger social security benefits, which induces the retirement of the elderly and thus results in a lower labor force participation rate. The opposite applies when agents have expectations of smaller social security benefits in their old age.     

The Credibility of Performance Feedback in Tournaments

This paper studies the effect of performance feedback on tournament outcomes, when a possibly dishonest principal may manipulate the agents' expectations to stimulate their effort. Under plausible circumstances, an increase in the principal's propensity to tell the truth (i.e., integrity) induces a mean preserving spread in the distribution of effort and leads to a decrease in expected profits and welfare. More generally, I identify conditions under which a lower integrity can improve the effectiveness of financial incentives in inducing the agents' effort, thus leading to higher expected profits for the principal.