我国财务分析师远期盈余预测偏差的实证研究

我国财务分析师行业起步较晚,研究财务分析师的远期盈余预测的精确度及在公司层面的影响因素有重要意义。远期盈余预测预测期越长偏差越大,上市公司受财务分析师的关注程度和上市公司的未来非营业利润的比重两大因素,始终显著地影响财务分析时的远期盈余预测精度。     

Earnings Quality in Private SMEs: Do CEO Demographics Matter?

This study investigates the impact of CEO demographics on earnings quality for private SMEs. Using a 2012 sample of 30,476 French firms, we first find strong empirical support for a gender effect: female‐run firms engage in less earnings management than do male‐run firms. This result is consistent with female CEOs being more risk averse than their male counterparts are when making financial decisions. Second, CEO age is negatively correlated with the magnitude of discretionary accruals, and the relationship between gender and earnings quality is stronger for older CEOs. Overall, our findings suggest that CEO demographics affect the quality of accounting information.     

Being good or being known: corporate governance,media coverage,and earnings announcements

Based on a sample of banking firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, we examine the impact of corporate governance and media coverage on the market reaction to unexpected earnings announcements. This study finds that positive media reports prior to bad earnings announcements have a positive short-term impact on the market's response to unexpected negative earnings, but the impact is reversed in the long term. In contrast, a better corporate governance quality has a persistent positive impact on market's reaction to unexpected negative earnings, especially when the quality of corporate governance is measured by pledge ratios. The study finding provides one central implication for managements: Yes, being good would pay off.     

Income disclosure and consumer judgment in a multilevel marketing experiment

Consumer protection concerns have been raised related to income misrepresentation in multilevel marketing (MLM) recruitment. Though not required by law, some MLM firms choose to voluntarily disclose income information about previous participants. Through replication and extension of the experiment created in Bosley, Greenman, and Snyder (2020), we investigate the impact of these disclosures on consumer interest and earnings expectations. We test the external validity of their findings with subjects from Mechanical Turk and explore issues regarding treatment heterogeneity and better-than-average bias. Supporting prior findings, we present evidence that income disclosures, on average, do not significantly affect subjects' interest in the MLM opportunity, but they do decrease earnings estimates for most while increasing earnings estimates for a few. These effects depend on a subject's numeracy skills and whether they see their earnings potential as better-than-average. We also find that asking about earnings estimates first tends to decrease interest.     

The effect of education and experience on self-employment success

The impact of education on the business success of an entrepreneur has been the subject of much discussion and speculation in both the popular and academic press. The literature is full of folklore focusing on the high-school drop out who made it big in the business world armed with an education from the school of hard knocks. Until recently this was part of the myth surrounding entrepreneurship. The myth takes shape in three basic areas. The first looks at the entrepreneur's level of education relative to the general public. The second area addresses the effect of education on people becoming entrepreneurs on a macro level. Do people with higher levels of education start more businesses than people with less education, does it increase the probability of becoming an entrepreneur? The third area concerns the micro-economic effect on individual entrepreneurs. Does education help an entrepreneur succeed?Past research on education and entrepreneurship consists mostly of institutional studies at universities with established programs. These offer good support for the outcome of educational programs. However, these studies are poorly circulated and seldom published because of the limited sample sizes (McMullan (1988) summarized several such studies). In this study the literature is reviewed in three areas mentioned above and new information on the relationships between education, experience, and self-employment is provided.The empirical part of this study examines the effect of education and experience using U.S. census data. Self-employment is used as a surrogate for entrepreneurship and the analysis controlled for farmers and professionals (medical doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc.) so that it would more closely fit our conception of an entrepreneur. Earnings potential was used as a measure of success. We recognize that success is a subjective experience based on one's expectations and actual outcomes; however, we believe that earnings provided a global indicator of success that is quantifiable relative to the sample used. Four specific hypotheses were generated and tested using the data.The first hypothesis (Self-employed have more years of formal education than those who do not work for themselves.) was confirmed with the years of education for the self-employed being 14.57 years for all workers, 14.71 years for males, and 14.13 years for female workers. Wage and salaried workers came in nearly one full year lower with: 13.58 years for all worked, 13.73 for male workers, and 13.40 for female workers.Hypothesis two (The number of years of formal education will increase the probability of becoming self-employed.) was supported with the probability of becoming self employed increasing by 0.8% for each year of education providing a significant relationship (t = 32.11 for all workers, t = 21.95 for males, and t = 20.76 for females, p < .0001 for all three).Hypothesis three (The relationship between years of formal education and success of the self-employed, as well as the general population will be positive and significant.) was supported using the “Beta” coefficients in a “Probit” regression model, indicating that self-employment and wage and salaried earnings increase significantly for each year of education. Self-employment earnings increased $1207.63 a year for each year of education ($1212.76 for males and $414.81 for females). Wage and salaried workers earnings increased $825.99a year for each year of education ($1023.33 for males and $369.37 for females).Hypothesis four (The relationship between experience and self-employment success will be positive and significant, but weaker than the impact of education.) was supported. All self-employed workers, both male and female, had over two years more experience than their wage and salaried counterparts. There is a strong positive relationship between self-employment and both experience and earnings with the exception of self-employed females whose experience did not significantly impact their earnings.In conclusion, a general education has a strong positive influence on entrepreneurship in terms of becoming self-employed and success. Experience has a similar relationship although not as strong. Future studies need to examine the impact of specific types of education, such as business school or entrepreneurship classes, on the entrepreneurial outcomes in the studies.     

The influence of strategic patterns of internationalization on the accuracy and bias of earnings forecasts by financial analysts

This paper examines how financial analysts’ earnings per share forecasts are affected by strategic patterns that multinational firms have used to expand abroad. Prior empirical studies have examined a firm's internationalization level as a one-dimensional construct involving increased task complexity for financial analysts’ forecasting and therefore resulting in lower accuracy and greater optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. In contrast, we use two strategic patterns of internationalization associated with geographic dispersion and cross-border integration to characterize a firm's international strategy, and find different empirical results using a sample of U.S. public companies with domestic and international operations. The empirical evidence suggests that geographic dispersion contributes to increases in forecasting accuracy and decreases in optimistic bias. Further, the results support that cross-border integration leads to decreases in forecasting accuracy. The two strategic patterns of internationalization are a consequence of managerial choices and therefore these results are important for managers, investors and shareholders as they help explain the linkages between international strategies and earnings forecasts by financial analysts.     

Corporate Social Responsibility, Investor Protection, and Earnings Management: Some International Evidence

To many, recent allegations of accounting fraud (or earnings management; EM) at Enron, coupled with similar ones at many other corporations, are a strong indication of a serious decay in business ethics. In academics, this raises the concern between EM and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Since it has neither been documented, nor globally tested whether CSR mitigates or increases the extent of EM, three kinds of EM are studied: earnings smoothing, earnings aggressiveness, and earnings losses and decreases avoidance. The extents to which financial characteristics and institutional variables have an impact on the extent to which companies conduct EM are also tested. Our study investigates whether the CSR-related features of 1,653 corporations in 46 countries had a positive or negative effect on the quality of their publicly released financial information during the 1993–2002 period. There is no question that with a greater commitment to CSR, the extent of earnings smoothing is mitigated, that of earnings losses and decreases avoidance is reduced, but the extent of earnings aggressiveness is increased. Feng-Ching Kang is a graduate student for Ph. D degree of the Department of Social Welfare at National Chung Cheng University, Taiwan. Her research focuses on nonprofit governance, social economy, cooperative economics, organization theory and business ethics. She received a MBA from the Department of Cooperative Economics, College of Business National Taipei University, Taiwan     

Value relevance,earnings management and corporate governance in China

This study investigates whether earnings management reduces the level of value relevance and whether good corporate governance restrains earnings management. Using hand-collected data comprising 1012 firm-year observations from all companies listed on the Shanghai SSE 180 and the Shenzhen SSE 100, the results show that the negative impact of value relevance for the companies engaged in earnings management is greater than the companies that have not engaged in earnings management engagement. Furthermore, the companies with good corporate governance practices are more likely to constrain earnings management than those without.     

Labor market differentials and the expected gain from search

Several recent empirical studies have used the residuals from estimated earnings equations as explanatory variables in models of on-the-job search and quit behavior. It has often been argued that the coefficients on these “market differential” variables are biased downward because estimated residuals overstate the “true” quasi-rent or disincentive to search for alternative employment. This argument—that observed wages include implicit payments for workplace and person-specific characteristics not fully specified in earnings models— ignores an opposing bias associated with the value of being able to reject unattractive wage offers. As a consequence, there is no unambiguous a priori relationship between estimated wage residuals and the theoretical expected gain from search. Some evidence bearing on the relative magnitudes of the two biases is discussed.     

融资约束、过度投资与现金流的价格敏感性

已有研究证实了盈余管理、会计稳健性以及边际投资收益递减规律均可能影响应计成分的持续性,揭示了资本市场对盈余的应计成分不存在“功能锁定”现象,但鲜有研究关注盈余的现金流成分与股价关系的影响因素。文章发现,过度投资会显著地降低现金流的价格敏感性,且对于现金持有水平高及融资约束程度高的公司,过度投资对现金流价格敏感性的影响更为显著。文章的研究结论一方面从经营活动现金流的价格敏感性视角揭示了过度投资的负面经济后果,另一方面也证实了市场对经营活动现金流同样不存在“功能锁定”现象。     

Latina entrepreneurship

We utilize individual panel data from the 1996 and 2001 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to analyze the relative success of self-employed female Hispanics. To allow for a meaningful comparison of earnings between self-employed and wage/salary women, we generate different earnings measures addressing the role of business equity. We compare earnings of Hispanic female entrepreneurs to both Latina wage/salary workers and to self-employed female non-Hispanic whites. Latina entrepreneurs are observed to have lower mean earnings than both white female entrepreneurs and Latina employees. However, our findings indicate that Latina entrepreneurs often do well, once differences in mean observable characteristics, such as education, are taken into account. Self-employed Latinas are estimated to earn more than observationally similar non-minority white female entrepreneurs and slightly less than observationally similar wage/salary-employed Latinas.     

Sectoral shifts Impact on Hong Kong workers

This paper documents the accelerating rate of economic transformation in Hong Kong during the 1980s and its impact on the labour market. Earnings in expanding sectors have risen faster than earnings in declining sectors. The magnitude of the effect, however, is small and variable. Sectoral shifts have also had negligible effects on aggregate unemployment and unemployment in declining sectors. It is found that the degree of earnings inequality has increased contemporaneously with the rising rate of economic transformation. The earnings of less well-educated workers have fallen relative to other workers. The earnings of elderly workers, however, have not fallen relative to other workers. The reallocation of labour from low-wage sectors to high-wage sectors has resulted in a substantial growth in earnings for most workers involved.     

Institutional investors, shareholder activism, and earnings management

The widespread practice of earnings management adversely impacts the quality of financial reports and increases information asymmetries between owners and managers. The present study investigates the effect of shareholder activism (as expressed by the proxy proposals sponsored by shareholders), and monitoring by the largest institutional owner on earnings management. Our longitudinal analyses indicate that the number of shareholder proposals received by firms is positively related to subsequent earnings management, yet concurrently, monitoring by the largest institutional owners is negatively related to earnings management. Our findings shed light on the equivocal results reported by prior research regarding the impact of shareholder activism on firm performance, on one hand, and ownership monitoring and performance, on the other.     

Regulatory procedures,investment opportunities and stock valuation

Electric utilities differ in their accounting procedures. By regulatory commission directive some use normalization and some use flow through to arrive at their earnings figures. Because regulation is on an allowed return on investment standard these reported earnings are relevant for stock valuation. Any variation in price/earnings ratios between flow through and normalizing companies therefore must be explained by differences in risk to equity investors, differences in investment opportunities, or market inefficiency involving erroneous restatement of earnings. Empirical work demonstrates that there is a difference in price/earnings ratios. Firms that normalize enjoy a premium. The evidence also indicates that the premium is not explained by risk difference. Because the perverse form of market inefficiency required as an explanation seems unlikely, the most reasonable conclusion is that the premium relates to investment opportunities associated with regulatory climate. If so it promises no excess return to stock buyers because it is already impounded in stock price.     

Gender differences and managerial earnings forecast bias: Are female executives less overconfident than male executives?

This study examines whether firms with female executives forecast company earnings more conservatively. Consistent with the selectivity hypothesis, the results reveal firms with female CEOs tend to make conservative earnings forecasts in a perceived positive situation and firms with a higher percentage of female directors on the board are more likely to forecast earnings conservatively in a perceived negative situation. The conservativeness of female executives is not caused by lower management ability. This conservative behavior is not caused by personal factors such as military status, level of education, or area of study.     

Do firms manipulate earnings after winning public-private partnership bids? Evidence from China

We examine whether firms manipulate their reported earnings after winning investment project bids. China's adoption of the public-private partnership (PPP) provides a unique setting for our analysis. Using the PPP announcements to identify the firms participating in PPP projects, we find that firms conduct both accrual-based and real earnings management after PPP participation. Our findings survive difference-in-differences design with different matching methods. We document that PPP-participating firms have strong incentives to manipulate earnings because of abnormal administrative expenditure and greater short-term performance pressure than non-PPP-participating firms. The auditors respond by charging higher audit fees due to the increased risk. Moreover, government subsidies relieve performance pressure and decrease the likelihood of earnings management among PPP-participating firms. Overall, this study documents the unintended consequences of PPP participation.     

董事会特征、盈余管理动机与非流动资产处置

本文以沪深两市2007-2014年发生非流动资产处置损益的A股上市公司为样本,分析处置非流动资产的盈余管理动机以及公司董事会特征对真实盈余管理的抑制作用。研究结果表明：上市公司为了实现扭亏的目标,存在利用非流动资产处置收益实施盈余管理的行为;董事会治理机制中,董事长与总经理两职合一、独立董事比例和董事会开会次数与真实盈余管理水平显著负相关;相对于民营上市公司,国有上市公司真实盈余管理动机更强,其董事长与总经理两职合一和独立董事比例抑制盈余管理的功能优于民营上市公司,而民营上市公司的董事会开会次数的监督功能更为有效。     

Earnings management and firms' investment behavior: The threshold effect of ROE

This paper, on the basis of a sample of Chinese listed firms, investigates the relationship between both real and accrual-based earnings management activities and firms' capital investment behavior. We apply the threshold model proposed by Hansen (1999) and find firms managing earnings can either over or underinvest, depending upon firms' return on equity (ROE) level. The study results show an inverted relationship between earnings management and firms' investment, which changes from negative to positive with ROE rising beyond certain threshold levels. We also find that the level of ROE affects whether managers use real and accrual manipulations jointly or as substitutes in affecting firms' investment. Our evidence is important because it sheds new light on the relationship between earnings management activities and firms' investment behavior by showing that ROE may act as an important determinant in this relationship. This finding has important implications for policymakers such as the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) as it shows that the regulatory benchmarks they set may have a significant impact on firms' investment behavior.     

The success of stock selection strategies in emerging markets: Is it risk or behavioral bias?

We examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies based on value, momentum and earnings revisions indicators. The findings for value and momentum strategies are consistent with the evidence from developed markets supporting behavioral explanations. In addition, for value stocks, the most important behavioral bias appears to be related to underestimation of long-term growth prospects, as indicated by above average earnings revisions for longer post-formation horizons and by quite rapidly improving earnings growth expectations. Furthermore, we find that overreaction effects play a limited role for the earnings revisions strategy, as there is no clear return reversal until five years after portfolio formation, setting this strategy apart from momentum strategies.     

Tax Avoidance,Near‐Future Earnings,and Resource Availability

This study examines the impact of near‐future earnings and resource availability on current‐year tax avoidance behavior from the perspective of both tax and non‐tax costs. Two conclusions are reached. First, when firms expect high‐earnings performance in the near future, they aggressively engage in current‐year tax planning to manage potential future tax and non‐tax costs. Second, firms that expect high‐resource availability in the near future put tax audit risks and resultant non‐tax costs on the front burner. Therefore, they are unlikely to undertake aggressive tax avoidance behavior.