Correcting for the endogeneity of pro-environment behavioral choices in contingent valuation

In contingent valuation studies, observed behavioral choices often enter as independent variables in the willingness to pay function. However, these variables may be endogenously determined when the error term in the behavioral model is correlated with the error term in the willingness to pay model. We investigate the effects of correcting for the endogeneity of a variable, namely membership status in environmental organizations that proxies unobservable characteristics of the respondents. Jointly modeling the membership variable and the willingness to pay response yields an estimate for the effect of the former that contradicts previous findings but is intuitive and agrees with theoretical expectations.     

The spatial empirical Bayes predictor of the small area mean for a lognormal variable of interest and spatially correlated random effects

The standard small area estimator, the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), estimates small area parameters by way of linear mixed models. The EBLUP assumes normal and independent random small area effects as well as normal and independent random sampling errors. Under these assumptions, the variable of interest also follows a normal distribution. In practice, however, the above assumptions are often violated. The variable of interest is often non-normal and highly skewed, and the small areas are frequently spatially dependent. In this paper, we propose the spatial empirical Bayes predictor (SEBP) of the small area mean of a positively skewed variable of interest in the presence of spatial dependence among the random small area effects. We assume that the variable of interest follows a normal distribution after a log transformation and that its log transform is linked to some auxiliary variables by a nested error regression model. The SEBP is derived under the log-transformed nested error regression model. By way of simulation, we show that compared to its alternatives, i.e., the direct estimator which is solely based on the survey data for the small area under study, the EBLUP which does not take into account spatial dependence and skewness, the empirical Bayes predictor which takes into account skewness but not spatial dependence among the small areas, the SEBP has the smallest average relative bias and average relative root-mean-squared error for various combinations—though not all—of skewness and spatial correlation.     

Errors in variables in panel data with a binary dependent variable

In a conditional logistic regression model for panel data when independent variables are subject to measurement error, the usual estimator, obtained by a regression on the observed independent variables, is asymptotically biased. We introduce a bias-adjusted estimator, which is examined asymptotically under conditions that are appropriate when the measurement error is small but non-negligible.     

中国金融信托业经营效率评价——基于20家信托公司2004—2008年的经验数据

本文通过将Monte-Carlo模拟理论、结构方程模型理论和三阶段DEA模型理论相结合,选取效率评估指标和环境变量指标,测算了剔除环境变量和随机误差项对经营绩效的影响后的我国20家信托公司2004—2008年经营的真实效率。结果显示:我国金融信托业的真实效率不仅主要受配置效率的影响,还受环境因素和随机误差项的影响,从而验证了环境变量和随机误差对我国金融信托公司经营的真实效率的测算结果存在较大影响的假设。     

Identification and estimation of endogenous selection models in the presence of misclassification errors

This paper shows the semi-parametric identification and estimation of sample selection models when the primary equation contains a discrete mismeasured endogenous covariate. Assuming that appropriate instruments for the presence of endogeneity are available, I apply a control function approach to remove the possible endogeneity. Based on the conditional mean independence between the model error and the selection error, the model can be regarded as a semi-parametric regression model with a discrete mismeasured covariate, thereby permitting a non-classical measurement error. Additional identification assumptions include monotonicity restrictions on the regression function and an empirical testable rank condition. I then use the identification result to construct a sieve maximum likelihood estimation estimator to estimate the model parameters consistently and recover the selection rule and joint probabilities of the accurately measured endogenous variable and the mismeasured observed variable. The proposed estimation method allows for a rather flexible functional form of the mismeasured endogenous covariate, requires only one valid instrument to control for both endogeneity and measurement errors for the variable of interest, and imposes no distribution assumptions on the selection rule.     

School vouchers in practice: competition will not hurt you

Since the introduction of school vouchers in 1992, independent and public schools in Sweden operate on equal terms. We analyze the effects of competition on the public schools using data on the results of 28,000 ninth graders. Because the decision on which school to attend is a choice variable, sample selection models are used. To account for the potential endogeneity of the share of students attending independent schools, we use instrumental variable estimation. We also estimate panel data models on 288 Swedish municipalities. Our findings support the hypothesis that school results in public schools improve due to competition.     

Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models

Treatment analyses based on average outcomes do not immediately generalize to the case of ordered responses because the expectation of an ordinally measured variable does not exist. The proposed remedy in this paper is a shift in focus to distributional effects. Assuming a threshold crossing model on both the ordered potential outcomes and the binary treatment variable, and leaving the distribution of error terms and functional forms unspecified, the paper discusses how the treatment effects can be bounded. The construction of bounds is illustrated in a simulated data example.     

Proxying Ability by Family Background in Returns to Schooling Estimations is Generally a Bad Idea*

When schooling is measured with error and data on ability are lacking, return to schooling estimates will be subject to positive omitted variable bias (OVB) and negative measurement error bias (MEB). We investigate how these biases are affected when ability is proxied by family background variables. We show that the effect on OVB is uncertain, while MEB invariably increases in magnitude. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that MEB generally dominates OVB. With more background variables or increased measurement error, the total bias rapidly becomes negative and increasing in magnitude, thereby driving the return estimate further and further away from the true value.     

Returns to Lying? Identifying the Effects of Misreporting When the Truth Is Unobserved

Consider an observed binary regressor D and an unobserved binary variable D?, both of which affect some other variable Y . This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the effect of D on Y , conditioning on D? = 0. For example, suppose Y is a person’s wage, the unobserved D? indicates if the person has been to college, and the observed D indicates whether the individual claims to have been to college. This paper then identifies and estimates the difference in average wages between those who falsely claim college experience versus those who tell the truth about not having college. We estimate this average effect of lying to be about 6% to 20%. Nonparametric identification without observing D? is obtained either by observing a variable V that is roughly analogous to an instrument for ordinary measurement error, or by imposing restrictions on model error moments.     

Alleged instability of the Okun's law relationship in Australia: an empirical analysis

The determinants of the long run equilibrium unemployment rate are modelled through a cointegrating regression. The residual term, which represents the error correction mechanism, is used in the testing of a general dynamic model to obtain a simplified representation of the data generation process over the period 1968(2)–1989(2). The long period equilibrium unemployment rate, which is I(1), is shown to be related to the rate of capacity utilization, a structural change variable and the rate of capacity growth. Steady state rates of unemployment are calculated which are based on different assumptions about the magnitudes of the independent variables. In contrast to the other two variables, changes in the rate of capacity utilization are shown to have only modest effects on the steady state unemployment rate. The Okun coefficient is inversely related to the steady state unemployment rate, which accords with intuition. The statistically significant decline in the trend growth rate of non-farm GDP in the 1970s explains, in part, the apparent instability of the Okun's law relationship which is revealed in recent studies. These studies can be criticised for their conometric methodologies.     

Why rural Russians participate in the land market: socio-economic factors

The existing literature does not provide a theoretical basis for understanding why Russians participate in the land market. Based upon a survey of 800 rural households in five Russian regions, this article analyses three variable clusters which act as the independent variable: structural factors, capital factors and labour factors. Statistical analysis is performed to test which of the independent variables best explain participation in the land market. The analysis has policy implications as Russia searches for a way to transform its land relations.     

产业内贸易对我国制造业自主创新能力影响的实证研究

从产业内贸易的形成机理出发,利用1997—2010年我国29个制造业的相关数据,利用面板数据变截距模型分析了我国制造业整体的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力的影响,利用面板数据变系数模型分析了29个制造业行业的产业内贸易对其自主创新产出的间接影响效应和直接影响效应。实证结果表明:不同的制造业行业的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力的影响有所差异;在自主创新能力高的制造业行业中,产业内贸易对其自主创新的影响比较显著;在自主创新能力中等的制造业行业中,除了医药制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力有显著影响外,其他制造业行业的该影响均不显著。     

Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK

It is widely reported for many countries, including the UK, that income velocity has been highly variable around a declining trend in recent years. This paper advances the following hypothesis. The demand for credit and hence the broad money stock are influenced by total spending in the economy, rather than spending only on newly produced goods and services. Since total spending in the economy has generally increased relative to GDP (mainly because of asset transactions) credit and money have expanded more rapidly than GDP, with the resulting fall in income velocity. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 2008, we estimate a vector error correction with income velocity as the dependent variable and the ratio of total to GDP transactions as an explanatory variable. The results show substantial support for the hypothesis and raise (further) doubts about the information content of broad money aggregates for inflation targeting central banks.     

省域自主创新的金融支撑体系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

本文运用面板协整分析、Granger因果检验与误差修正模型,对1998-2008年我国31个省域的金融支撑体系与自主创新能力之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：长期来看,我国省域金融支撑与自主创新之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,金融支持是自主创新的Granger原因,并且落后地区自主创新的发展对金融的依赖性要大于发达地区。从短期来看,金融体系的不同方面对自主创新的影响却大相径庭。其中金融规模对自主创新具有正的短期效应,但这种短期效应具有时滞性,一般在3年后才开始显现出来。而金融体系的金融效率和金融结构对自主创新起抑制作用。     

An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending

This paper augments the Granger and Lee (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 1989) non-symmetric error (equilibrium) correction model to assess the possibility that, in the aggregate, consumers respond differently to different types of disequilibrium error. This idea is illustrated using an Engle-Granger implementation of the Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (DHSY, Economic Journal, 80, 1978) model. The disequilibrium error is endogenously determined by the long-run, empirical model and a binary dummy variable captures two alternative states, above and below equilibrium spending. Interaction of the dummy variable with key variables in a short-run dynamic model of UK consumer spending augments the dynamics of the DHSY model. Income elasticities, inflation elasticities and speeds of adjustment are all seen to change significantly depending on whether the disequilibrium error is positive or negative, and is suggestive of asymmetric behaviour on the part of consumers. Moreover, the asymmetrically augmented model substantially outperforms a symmetric model with standard error improvements in excess of 50%.     

高新技术企业研发团队沟通行为对自主创新绩效的影响——以知识吸收能力为中介变量

在知识经济时代,知识是企业发展和创新的源泉与重要资源。研发团队沟通行为是影响高新技术企业自主创新绩效的重要因素,探究其对自主创新绩效的影响机制具有重要意义。以社会认同、知识共享等理论为基础,以知识吸收能力为中介变量,分析高新技术企业研发团队沟通行为与自主创新绩效的关系,运用逐步回归分析法对288份有效样本进行实证分析。研究发现：研发团队合作性沟通对团队产品创新绩效和工艺创新绩效有正向影响;研发团队竞争性沟通和回避性沟通对团队产品创新绩效和工艺创新绩效有负向影响;知识吸收能力在研发团队合作性沟通、竞争性沟通与自主创新绩效的影响中起显著中介作用,但是在研发团队回避性沟通对自主创新绩效影响的中介作用不显著。结论为提升高新技术企业研发团队自主创新绩效提供了新的方法与路径,对企业提高知识共享与创新能力,开展创新活动具有重要启示。     

‘Time-series’ versus ‘econometric’ forecasts : A non-linear regression counterexample

A non-linear regression model is presented in which a deterministic, model-based forecast of the dependent variable may have greater mean square error than a purely extrapolative forecast, in contrast to the result on relative forecast efficiency in linear models.     

Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data

We consider an asset-based alternative to the standard use of expenditures in defining well-being and poverty. Our motivation is to see if there exist simpler and less demanding ways to collect data to measure economic welfare and rank households. This is particularly important in poor regions where there is limited capacity to collect consumption, expenditure and price data. We evaluate an index derived from a factor analysis on household assets using multipurpose surveys from several countries. We find that the asset index is a valid predictor of a crucial manifestation of poverty—child health and nutrition. Indicators of relative measurement error show that the asset index is measured as a proxy for long-term wealth with less error than expenditures. Analysts may thus prefer to use the asset index as an explanatory variable or as a means of mapping economic welfare to other living standards and capabilities such as health and nutrition.     

后股权分置时期中国上市公司独立董事激励研究

股权分置改革之前,独立董事制度在中国公司治理中发挥的作用并不理想,原因是多方面的。在后股权分置,完善独立董事制度有了新机遇。独立董事制度本身的不完善给公司治理带来的新的代理问题值得关注,委托代理理论以激励相容来解决该问题。独立董事制度中独立性变量的引入,使得独立董事制度的激励设计不同于激励经理人。除了固定薪金的激励外,声誉激励在独立董事制度中的应用显得格外重要．而独立董事行业协会制度的建立保证了声誉激励的实施。