A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF A MULTIFIRM MORAL‐HAZARD ECONOMY WITH FINANCIAL MARKETS

We present a general equilibrium model of a moral‐hazard economy with many firms and financial markets, where stocks and bonds are traded. Contrary to the principal‐agent literature, we argue that optimal contracting in an infinite economy is not about a tradeoff between risk sharing and incentives, but it is all about incentives. Even when the economy is finite, optimal contracts do not depend on principals’ risk aversion, but on market prices of risks. We also show that optimal contracting does not require relative performance evaluation, that the second best risk‐free interest rate is lower than that of the first best, and that the second‐best equity premium can be higher or lower than that of the first best. Moral hazard can contribute to the resolution of the risk‐free rate puzzle. Its potential to explain the equity premium puzzle is examined.     

金融危机背景下汇市与股市关系实证研究

本文建立了由上证综指、汇率、利率与道·琼斯指数构成的多变量VAR模型,运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解技术分析了金融危机背景下外汇市场与股票市场关系.实证分析结果表明:我国金融市场上汇率变动对股票价格有明显的短期作用,而股票价格变动对汇率没有影响;美国股市波动对我国股市的短期冲击超过人民币汇率对股市的冲击;我国的利率调整对汇率有短期效应,但对股票价格无影响.     

Operating leverage as a determinant of systematic risk

Since the development of the capital asset pricing model, a number of studies have examined the effect of a firm's operating leverage on its systematic risk. The essential conclusion of these studies is that operating leverage affects systematic risk through either the contribution margin or unit variable costs. In this paper, the models derived in previous research are refined and extended to demonstrate that, for either a single-product or multiproduct firm, the degree of operating leverage measures the full effect of a firm's operating leverage on its systematic risk. In addition, it is shown that a sales variability measure should also be an important differentiating factor among the systematic risk of common stocks. Thus, the results have important practical implications for financial managers when estimating project or divisional risk for investment decisions, and for security analysts when predicting the systematic risk of common stocks.     

Interest Rate,Currency and Equity Derivatives Valuation Using the Potential Approach

Based on the potential approach to interest rate modelling, we introduce a simple tractable model for the unified valuation of interest rate, currency and equity derivatives. Our model is able to accommodate the initial term structure of zero‐coupon bond prices, generate positive and bounded interest rates, and handle cross products such as differential swaps, quanto options and equity swaps. As our model is specified under the actual probability measure, it can be directly used for portfolio risk management and the computation of value at risk. Furthermore, our model yields simple analytical formulas that are easy to calibrate and implement.     

Valuation and applications of compound basket options

This study investigates compound basket options, which are options on portfolios of options. Although they may be new to financial markets, they are available as equity basket options, equity spread options, stocks of holding companies, and collateralized debt obligations. Using moments of portfolio values, we provide formulas for pricing compound basket options. According to numerical analysis, a lower bound and a weighted average of bounds yield relatively small errors. Additionally, ignoring the compound feature increases the pricing error of equity basket options because the feature captures the capital structure and leverage effect of stock prices.     

Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in international financial integration in the form of largely offsetting cross-holdings across countries. We assess how such financial leverage affects the international transmission of monetary shocks, and find that it leads to sizable welfare differentials that far exceed the impact due to nominal rigidities. We document the relevance of the exact nature of holdings, with bond holdings associated with larger effects than equity holdings. The impact of financial leverage on welfare is also sensitive to the extent of exchange rate pass-through and the substitutability between goods produced in different countries.     

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR PRICING CREDIT AND EQUITY DERIVATIVES

We propose a model which can be jointly calibrated to the corporate bond term structure and equity option volatility surface of the same company. Our purpose is to obtain explicit bond and equity option pricing formulas that can be calibrated to find a risk neutral model that matches a set of observed market prices. This risk neutral model can then be used to price more exotic, illiquid, or over‐the‐counter derivatives. We observe that our model matches the equity option implied volatility surface well since we properly account for the default risk in the implied volatility surface. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for the default risk and stochastic interest rate in equity option pricing by comparing our results to Fouque et al., which only accounts for stochastic volatility.     

Financial determinants of systematic risk in real estate investment trusts

Financial theory and empirical evidence suggest that a firm's systematic, or market related, risk is related to its financial conditions. This study empirically investigates the financial determinants of systematic risk for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The study is an examination of sample of 32 REITs for the period 1976–1978. The results indicate that systematic risk varies directly with financial leverage, business risk, and advisor fee. The explanatory power of the relationship between systematic risk and financial variables exceeds that of previous studies wherein firms were pooled across industry groups. The higher explanatory power observed even with limited data suggests that better estimates of coefficients of financial determinants of systematic risk may be obtained through analysis conducted on an industry by industry basis. Furthermore, such industry-specific analysis provides useful results to practicing financial managers in their financial policy considerations. With the knowledge of how the financial decisions affect the firm's systematic risk, a manager may be able to manipulate those variables so as to reduce the systematic risk for his or her firm and thus increase the market value of the firm's securities.     

Market Discipline of Canadian Banks' Letters of Credit Activities: An Empirical Examination

While the motivation and riskiness of US off-balance sheet banking activities have been studied both theoretically and empirically, no such study has been found dealing with Canadian off-balance sheet banking activities, although such activities are numerically huge, and growing larger each year. This article provides support for a market discipline hypothesis of Canadian bank letters of credit activities by employing several market measures of risk from one-factor and multi-factor models, and an implied asset volatility from the option-pricing model. Furthermore, it examines both price and quantity response of off-balance sheet activities in the Canadian banking market by employing a tobit analysis to assess the robustness of our conclusions about market discipline. The results indicate that various market measures of risk and letters of credit are negatively related. Moreover, banks with greater portfolio risk measured in terms of equity and asset risk, high leverage and interest rate risk are less likely to issue letters of credit.     

Real and Financial Sector Interaction Under Liberalization in an Open Developing Economy

A short‐run model incorporates instantaneous portfolio equilibrium with macroeconomic flows to clarify the structure of real–financial sector interactions. If equity and foreign exchange markets are introduced in structuralist theories of asset markets in developing countries, the key result that a fall in money supply raises the rate of inflation now holds only under special conditions on partial derivatives. But there is a tendency for interest rates to rise and for fluctuations in asset prices. Fuller integration of asset markets moderates these fluctuations. Outcomes are stable in spite of the generalized complementarity distinguishing equity markets from loan markets. Expectations play a major role. Implications for policy are to link domestic interest rates to foreign, remove artificial barriers to market integration, and stimulate demand as well as supply.     

Commercial bank stocks, interest rates, and systematic risk

This study examines the effect of interest rate changes on bank equity values. Several versions of the market model were specified and estimated. The results indicate that bank systematic risk differs during periods of changing interest rate levels. In addition, bank portfolio betas appear to increase with time and are positively correlated with interest rates.     

Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices

This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of an equilibrium asset-pricing model with financial frictions are consistent with key features of the Sudden Stop phenomenon. Foreign traders incur costs in trading assets with domestic agents, and a collateral constraint limits external debt to a fraction of the market value of domestic equity holdings. When this constraint does not bind, standard productivity shocks cause typical real-business-cycle effects. When it binds, the same shocks cause strikingly different effects depending on the leverage ratio and asset market liquidity. With high leverage and a liquid market, the shocks force “fire sales” of assets and Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism amplifies the responses of asset prices, consumption and the current account. Precautionary saving makes these Sudden Stops infrequent in the long run.     

物流上市公司系统风险与财务变量关系的实证分析

本文以33家中国物流上市公司1997年至2005年的年报资料为样本,采用多元回归方法,对中国物流行业系统风险和7个会计变量之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:经营效率和盈利水平与系统风险负相关,而流动性、财务杠杆、公司规模和成长性与系统风险没有显著的相关性。     

The different roles played by venture capital and private equity investors on the investment activity of their portfolio firms

Venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investors play different roles in their portfolio companies. We argue that this will translate in a recognizable difference in the investment sensitivity to cash flows of portfolio companies and its evolution after the first investment round. We hypothesise that VC, thanks to its ability in overcoming asymmetries in information, will entail a reduction in the financial constraints which hampered the growth of investee firms. We predict, instead, a greater dependency of investments to cash flow for PE-backed companies, driven by the renewed interest for growth of their management combined with higher leverage. We find evidence confirming our hypotheses on a large panel of Spanish unlisted firms in low and medium technology sectors, where both VC and PE firms are active.     

Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets

We aim to compare the systematic risk in conventional and Islamic equity markets by introducing two dynamic risk measures. Accordingly, the level of the systematic risk in conventional markets is slightly higher than the risk in Islamic markets for most of the time. However, this difference is significant in less than 3% of the sample period. More importantly, there is no significant difference in the levels of systematic risk during the global financial crisis of 2008, suggesting that Islamic equities are not able to provide a lower market risk compared with their conventional counterparts in financial turbulent times.     

Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads

We introduce “financial imperfections” – asymmetric net wealth positions, incomplete risk-sharing, and interest rate spreads across member countries – in a prototypical two-country currency union model and study implications for monetary policy transmission mechanism and optimal policy. In addition to, and independent from, the standard transmission mechanism associated with nominal rigidities, financial imperfections introduce a wealth redistribution role for monetary policy. Moreover, the two mechanisms reinforce each other and amplify the effects of monetary policy. On the normative side, financial imperfections, via interactions with nominal rigidities, generate two novel policy trade-offs. First, the central bank needs to pay attention to distributional efficiency in addition to macroeconomic (and price level) stability, which implies that a strict inflation targeting policy of setting union-wide inflation to zero is never optimal. Second, the interactions lead to a trade-off in stabilizing relative consumption versus the relative price gap (the deviation of relative prices from their efficient level) across countries, which implies that the central bank allows for less flexibility in relative prices. Finally, we consider how the central bank should respond to a financial shock that causes an increase in the interest rate spread. Under optimal policy, the central bank strongly decreases the deposit rate, which reduces aggregate and distributional inefficiencies by mitigating the drop in output and inflation and the rise in relative consumption and prices. Such a policy response can be well approximated by a spread-adjusted Taylor rule as it helps the real interest rate track the efficient rate of interest.     

NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade

Empirically, demand and market size effects play an important role for international trade in assets and the determination of asset prices. Financial integration decreases the cost of capital, asset prices increase with investors base and market size determines international financial flows. We present a two-country model with an endogenous number of financial assets, where the interaction of a risk diversification motive and market segmentation explains those facts. In our set up, an imperfectly competitive structure of financial markets emerges naturally and provides a new source for home bias in equity holdings. Due to co-ordination failures, the extent of financial market incompleteness is inefficiently high in equilibrium.