Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid-ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices

This paper examines the performance of a variety of new open economy macroeconomic models in explaining the exchange rate pass-through in a wide range of prices. Quantitative versions of different models are used to derive the dynamic response of various prices to an exchange rate shock. Predicted responses are compared with the evidence based on VAR models to examine how well different models fit the data. The results show that the best-fitting model incorporates a number of features highlighted by different strands of the literature: sticky prices, sticky wages, distribution costs and a combination of local (LCP) and producer currency pricing (PCP).     

中国三地区出口影响因素比较实证分析--对广东、北京、浙江三地的研究

中国的对外贸易在1979年以来发展非常迅速，而广东、北京、浙江三地对全国出口的贡献尤其突出。理论分析与实践表明，出口的增长受国内国际经济增长与汇率等因素的影响。文章通过对广东、北京、浙江三地区出口的实证分析，比较论证了各地区出口影响因素及其影响效应，并就此提出政策建议。     

The macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation in emerging markets—The Asian experience

The impact of currency reserve accumulation is controversially discussed since reserve accumulation potentially destabilises the international financial system and causes crises due to higher systemic risk. The main aim of this paper is to put the macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation for four Asian economies under closer scrutiny. The key question is whether accumulating currency reserves is beneficial from a long‐run perspective. Based on a vector error correction approach, we start by analysing long‐run steady‐state relationships between currency reserves, exchange rates against the US dollar, real GDP and interest rates. Our findings show that cumulated currency reserve shocks significantly affect real GDP . A likely explanation for our finding is that accumulation of reserves has supported growth through providing liquidity and supporting the development of the financial sector for the economies under observation.     

The welfare effect of international asset market integration under nominal rigidities

This paper assesses the impact of integrating international asset markets when segmented markets are not the only distortion. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and monetary shocks, we show that integration is not universally beneficial. Instead, the welfare impact depends on the degree to which exchange rate fluctuations are passed through to consumer prices. While the integration is welfare neutral in the polar cases of complete or zero pass-through, this is not the case when pass-through is partial. When shocks are equally volatile in both countries, integration can be detrimental or beneficial depending on the degree of pass-through. When shocks are more volatile in one country, it benefits from integration compared with the more stable country.     

The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view

This paper study the feasibility of a monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, by measuring the evolution of economic integration among them. Considering the critical role of crisis and shocks in the integration process within the region, we determine whether GCC countries are characterised by a common business cycle. We suggest a different empirical approach that, unlike previous studies, allows one to endogenously detect structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure for this region that is based on the time‐varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but also distinguishes these dynamics in terms of short‐ and long‐term cycles. Additionally, we can test whether certain countries tend to be more synchronised. The main finding of this study is that not all GCC countries share a common short‐term business cycle. However, in the long term, all country‐pairs indicate a medium‐level synchronisation in the most recent subperiods. The new role of the United Arab Emirates’ regional trade platform allows it to strengthen long‐term business cycle comovement, thus differentiating it from other GCC country‐pairs that have shown a decline in the last two subperiods.     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

The public bond offering of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.

In April 2007, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) issued debt for USD 7.5 billion, the largest debt offering to date by a Latin American company. The conditions surrounding this issue, which was denominated and tradable in dollars, but payable in bolivars, were quite special, particularly when considering the strict foreign exchange control system put into place by the Venezuelan government in 2003. The fact that the bond issue attempted to fulfill the dual purpose of offering dollars to local companies and investors in the midst of prevailing exchange rate controls, while helping to finance PDVSA as a company, creates a unique dilemma that is ideal for class discussion. This teaching case provides the information necessary for estimating and proposing a price for PDVSA's bond offer.     

Analyzing price and product strategies with a comprehensive system dynamics model—A case study from the capital goods industry

Price reductions and/or product enhancements are widely seen as appropriate ways to increase market share. However, the key findings of this analysis demonstrate the opposite: decreases in price combined with product enhancements can lead to substantial loss in sales revenue and, ultimately, profit. The discussion draws on findings from a comprehensive system dynamics model, which has been developed in a major company in the capital goods industry. The purpose of this research is to analyze the price and product strategies in the capital goods industry. In the case company, testing intuitive beliefs with the help of a formal system dynamics model proved to be beneficial in the strategic decision-making process. The model had a significant impact on the case company, especially when challenging basic assumptions about mechanisms of markets and competition.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

The quality of volatility traded on the over‐the‐counter currency market: A multiple horizons study

Previous studies of the quality of market‐forecasted volatility have used the volatility that is implied by exchange‐traded option prices. The use of implied volatility in estimating the market view of future volatility has suffered from variable measurement errors, such as the non‐synchronization of option and underlying asset prices, the expiration‐day effect, and the volatility smile effect. This study circumvents these problems by using the quoted implied volatility from the over‐the‐counter (OTC) currency option market, in which traders quote prices in terms of volatility. Furthermore, the OTC currency options have daily quotes for standard maturities, which allows the study to look at the market's ability to forecast future volatility for different horizons. The study finds that quoted implied volatility subsumes the information content of historically based forecasts at shorter horizons, and the former is as good as the latter at longer horizons. These results are consistent with the argument that measurement errors have a substantial effect on the implied volatility estimator and the quality of the inferences that are based on it. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:261–285, 2003     

The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms

This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results demonstrate that a multinational firm's response to exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whether the volatility arises from shocks in the firm's native or host country. It is the first study to depart from the representative-firm framework in an analysis of direct investment behavior with money.     

“To buy or to pirate”: The matrix of music consumers' acquisition-mode decision-making

The decision to engage in music piracy may be preceded by consumer consideration of a range of issues. The determinants of such piracy as embedded in a large matrix of acquisition-mode decision factors relevant to exchange theory, including economic, legal, ethical, network and consumer behavior aspects, are investigated here. This matrix depicts numerous interrelated factors and makes assessing the decision-making process regarding music piracy more contextual than previously considered. A study of 204 American business students was conducted to test this matrix and assess the impact of the various factors. Implications and future research regarding this decision-making matrix and exchange theory are provided. The significant factors predict whether an exchange takes place between music consumers and the music industry.     

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US: A cointegration approach

This paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long‐term effects of several key variables on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US . The evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that: (i) a real depreciation of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate reduces Mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of Chinese goods in the US market; (ii) a depreciation of the peso‐dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply‐side effect due to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, which ultimately leads to lower (rather than higher) sales in the US ; and (iii) external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports, whereas real wages are negatively related. Therefore, a falling external demand for Mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the Chinese currency could, to some extent, be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages. These findings reflect two fundamental problems of the Mexican economy: (i) low investment in high‐quality formal instruction and proper training programs, which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and (ii) excessive reliance of the export‐oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs.     

How green is your packaging—A comparative international study of cues consumers use to recognize environmentally friendly packaging

Consumers have grown increasingly aware of the impact of packaging on the environment. Therefore, interest has grown in more environmentally friendly packaging, but we wondered how consumers recognize ‘green’ as distinct from ‘grey’ when evaluating packaging. We asked over 3,000 respondents from Germany, France and the United States how they recognize environmentally friendly packaging. To solicit responses that we may not have anticipated, we used an open‐ended format, which we then followed with a closed‐ended format so that we could compare the two sets of responses. Not surprisingly, in both sets of responses, we found labelling to be the attribute consumers rely upon most, as well as evidence of misleading labels. We also found consumers in Germany and the United States relied on information on the packaging and named searching for information as one of their preferred ways to decide whether packaging is environmentally friendly. French consumers seemed less trusting of published information and more trusting of the look and feel, especially the material, of the package. Our results point to the importance of cultural influences in the acquisition of perceptual cues by the consumer.     

The impact of CSR on corporate reputation perceptions of the public—A configurational multi‐time,multi‐source perspective

This study investigates the connection between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate reputation among the public using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). To examine complex processes underlying the reactions of this influential stakeholder group, hypotheses are drawn from the category diagnosticity approach. Thereby, a psychological model of perceived (im)morality is transferred to the CSR context. In line with these hypotheses, positive/negative CSR activities influence reputation in the expected directions (H1a, b), while the effects of specific configurations of CSR activities reveal an asymmetry suggesting a negativity bias (H2). Further analyses confirm that positive effects require a consistent positive performance regarding prior reputations (H3a) and the aggregated CSR activities of several previous years (H3b, c). Moreover, the relevant patterns vary between industries (H4). The present study thus contributes to CSR research by investigating a powerful but hitherto understudied stakeholder group through a category diagnosticity lens combined with a configurational approach to analysis.     

The extent of marketability and consumer preferences for traditional leafy vegetables – a case study at selected markets in Ghana

This paper reports on a survey conducted at two major marketing centres in Ghana; Tamale in the dry savannah zone and Kumasi in the forest zone. One hundred traders were interviewed using a semi‐structured questionnaire and focus groups discussions held on traders’ perceptions and consumer preferences, relative importance and indigenous nutritional knowledge of traditional leafy vegetables (TLVs). The survey established that, with the exception of Xanthosoma mafafa (cocoyam leaves), inter‐market distribution of TLVs is limited because of their perishable nature, narrow utilization base and lack of storage techniques. Socio‐culturally related factors limiting the distribution of TLVs include regional diversity and ethnic differences in the dietary patterns of the Ghanaian populace, inadequate knowledge about the methods of preparations as well as nutritional and medicinal values of TLVs. The most preferred TLVs as reflected in the consumers’ buying behaviour and traders’ perceptions are Xanthosoma mafafa (cocoyam leaves), Corchorus spp.(Ayoyo), Amaranthus spp (Alefu) and Hibicus sabdariffa (Bra). The order of preference in the forest zone is Xanthosoma mafafa (cocoyam leaves) > Corchorus spp.(Ayoyo) > Amaranthus spp (Alefu) > Hibicus sabdariffa (Bra), while the reverse order pertains in the savannah zone.     

The commercialization of academic outputs in the administrative sciences: A multiple‐case study in a university‐based business school

Technology transfer, and its focus on research commercialization, is gaining popularity in all academic fields as a way to better demonstrate universities' external impacts. We conducted a multiple case‐study of three commercialization projects in Organizational Development, Information Technology, and Marketing, which took place in a university business school. We explored to what extent the technology transfer model of commercializing academic outputs could apply in business schools. We also examined its potential value compared to other ways of sharing academic expertise. Although the technology transfer approach appears to work, the three projects exhibited crucial characteristics that markedly differ from traditional technology transfer. Compared to other forms of knowledge uses, what makes research commercialization so attractive is that it is readily observable and traceable. However, it raises some fundamental questions about knowledge production and its use. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.