我国粮食安全:基于美元贬值视角下的分析

由美元贬值引起的农资生产资料价格上涨、替代生物能源需求增加、国际投机资本流动等派生因素对粮食价格的直接、间接推动作用,根据我国粮食现状,现阶段应采取敦促美元升值、提高粮食单产、提高科技对粮食贡献率,以及密切关注国内粮食期货价格波动等,努力保证我国粮食安全。     

Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra‐Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.     

Does retailer CSR enhance behavioral loyalty? A case for benefit segmentation

We study the effects of consumer perceptions of four types of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities on their behavioral loyalty toward retailers. The four activities are environmental friendliness, community support, selling locally produced products, and treating employees fairly. Behavioral loyalty is measured by share-of-wallet (SOW). We control for other retailer attributes that drive attitudes and SOW, and examine how the market is segmented in terms of consumer response. We partition the total effect of CSR on SOW into a direct effect and an indirect effect mediated through attitude towards the store. These effects differ by CSR activity and customer segment. The effects on attitude are positive and positive attitude enhances SOW, so the indirect effects on SOW are positive. While we generally find positive total effects, the total effect of one of the CSR activities, environmental friendliness, is significantly negative for one group of consumers. The magnitude of CSR's total impact on SOW is not only statistically significant but also managerially meaningful in an industry where every share point carries a substantial dollar amount. We characterize the customer segments and conclude with implications for how best a retailer can manage its CSR initiatives.     

Small‐Dollar Credit Lending: The Effect of Financial Burden on Personal Asset Misvaluation

Small‐dollar credit lenders offer consumers quick access to cash in the form of products, such as pawn loans. The consumers who tend to use these small‐dollar credit products are more likely to face financial burden and potential for default—particularly when loan‐to‐value ratios are high. However, the cognitive effects of financial burden can impair financial decision making. If financial literacy educators are to empower consumers, more consumer‐centric evidence is necessary to determine how small‐dollar credit consumers make decisions when purchasing loans. One critical decision consumers make is accepting how lenders value their assets in exchange for credit. Three lab studies assess how consumers facing financial burden value their own assets. We find that, due to cognitive constraints of financial burden, consumers can undervalue functional assets and overvalue symbolic assets. Importantly for financial literacy efforts, however, we show that framing a symbolic asset in terms of other‐benefit construal helps attenuate asset overvaluation.     

An Eye for an Eye Will Make the Whole World Blind: Conflict Escalation into Workplace Bullying and the Role of Distributive Conflict Behavior

The current study investigated how work-related disagreements—coined as conflicts—relate to workplace bullying, from the perspective of the target as well as the perpetrator. We hypothesized a positive indirect association between task conflicts and bullying through relationship conflicts. This process accounted for both for targets and perpetrators of bullying. Targets are distinguished from perpetrators in our assumption that this indirect effect is boosted by distributive conflict behavior, being yielding for targets and forcing for perpetrators. Results in a large representative sample of the Flemish working population (N = 2,029) confirmed our hypotheses. Additionally, our study also revealed a direct effect from task conflicts to bullying in the analyses regarding the indirect as well as the conditional indirect effects. For perpetrators, both the indirect and direct relationships are moderated by forcing, underlining the importance of distributive conflict behavior particularly for the enactment of bullying behaviors.     

Some New Evidence about the Effects of U.S. Antidumping Orders and Their Administrative Reviews on the Prices of Covered Imports

The present article presents evidence from a sample of U.S. antidumping orders that are followed through as many as 15 administrative reviews. The decline in average antidumping duties over the course of successive reviews is entirely the result of firms with higher dumping duties disappearing from the review process (probably ceasing sales in the United States). For given firms surviving to be named in the next review, the antidumping duty actually increases from one review to the next. This article is the first to report direct information about the unit value of covered imports contained in administrative review reports of the United States International Trade Commission. This article is also the first to present information about the large number of firms—more than one-third of those ever assigned a firm-specific duty—that are named in administrative reviews, but not in original antidumping orders.     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370     

Decomposing the effect of advertising: What happens in the retail channel?

The diverging interests of manufacturers and retailers famously give rise to the double marginalization problem but have consequences far beyond pricing. Advertising is another marketing instrument that is under the control of the manufacturer but its ultimate effect on consumer demand also depends on retailers’ pricing decisions. We decompose the effect of advertising in the channel and highlight an additional route through which advertising affects sales, namely via the changes in the retail price that a strategic retailer makes in response to changes in demand following manufacturer advertising. The total demand effect of advertising thus comprises the direct effects of advertising on market shares, and the indirect effects coming through adjustments that the retailer makes to the in-store prices of all the brands in a given product category in response to the shifted demand due to advertising. We match advertising data for four different categories (both food and non-food) to store-level scanner panel data, which also include information on wholesale prices. Controlling for wholesale prices, we establish in a reduced-form model that the retailer reacts to manufacturer advertising by changing retail prices instead of simply imposing a constant markup on the wholesale price. To further explore the role of the strategic response of the retailer in a systematic fashion and quantify the effects derived in the decomposition, we estimate a discrete-choice model of demand and determine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects. We find that the indirect effect of advertising through retailer prices is about half the size of the direct effect, and thus substantively affects advertising effectiveness.     

Redesigning after-sales service: Impact on incumbent product distribution channels

With the growth of multi-channel retailing, many firms that have traditionally relied upon third-party service providers to offer after-sales service (AS) have introduced direct AS channel. While there exist a few studies that examine the effects of adding a direct sales channel on the sales revenue of incumbent channels, there are no studies investigating the effects of adding direct AS channel. This study tries to fill this research gap by exploring cross-channel effects of including AS through the firm's direct brand stores on performance (i.e., revenue, assortment width, and extent of upselling) in both direct and indirect channels. A matched difference-in-difference quasi-experimental design was used to compare the sales outcomes of test and control groups using a five-year longitudinal dataset from a large dual-channel consumer durables firm. Results reveal that providing AS through the firm's direct channel has a positive significant effect on the revenue and upselling in the indirect channel, but no significant impact on assortment width in the indirect channel. However, unlike hypothesized, it results in significantly lower revenue, assortment width, and upselling in the direct channel. We interpret these negative effects as arising from customer confusion and perceived retail crowding. Overall, our research highlights that implementation of going direct with AS should be done with utmost care. Our findings would serve as a building block for future studies that are conducted to understand the dynamic cross-channel effects of introducing direct AS, and would be useful for drawing comparisons and contrasts.     

Assessing the effect of introducing a permitted phase through the use of flashing yellow arrow signal for left-turning vehicles

This paper evaluates the direct and indirect effects of introducing a permitted phase, through the use of flashing yellow arrow (FYA) signal for left-turning vehicles, in reducing crashes at intersections. Data for 18 study intersections in the city of Charlotte, NC, USA were used to conduct a before–after comparison study through the use of Empirical Bayes (EB) method and examine the effects. The estimated number of left-turn crashes, had the FYA signal not been installed, was compared to the actual number of left-turn crashes to assess the direct effect, while the estimated total number of crashes, had the FYA signal not been installed, was compared to the actual total number of crashes to assess the indirect effect. Only left-turn crashes along a selected FYA leg were used to examine the direct effect as the number of legs (approaches) with the FYA signal varied between the selected study intersections. The results obtained indicate that the FYA signal helps reduce the left-turn crashes (direct effect). It does not lead to any negative consequences. Instead, the FYA signal has the potential to indirectly lower the total number of crashes (indirect effect) and contribute to improved safety at intersections.     

The Retail Travels of the U.S. Greenback: A Comparative Study of Currency Substitution Along the U.S.-Canadian and U.S.-Mexican Borders

This currency substitution study explores the extent of retail firm-level U.S. dollar acceptance in Canada and Mexico. Employing a stratified random sampling approach of retail business in the border region, results demonstrate that all Mexican firms (N = 300/300) and nearly all Canadian (N = 257/261) firms accept the U.S. dollar in retail transactions. Of greater interest is the difference between firms in the two countries in how acceptance of the U.S. dollar is operationalized. On average, U.S. dollar sales of Canadian border firms comprise just 3.4% of total sales whereas U.S. dollar sales of Mexican firms encompass 23.7% of total sales. Our results also indicate a stark contrast as to the effective exchange rate for U.S. dollar acceptance— Canadian firms typically charge a premium (2.1% on average) while 69.3% of Mexican firms transacted business at a discount (?0.8% on average). Additional analyses further refine the currency substitution distinctions between Canadian and Mexican firms in the sample including a logistical regression which reveals significant differences as to firm-level predictors of U.S. dollar acceptance (whether at a discount or premium).     

EFFECT OF TEXTILE QUOTA RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS BETWEEN 1964 AND 1973

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of U.S. cotton textile quotas on cotton textiles imported into the U.S. between 1964 and 1973. The findings showed that cotton imports requiring more processing stages had significantly greater 10-year average prices than other groups. Changes in the dollar value of imported cotton textiles during the decade have mainly occurred because of an increase in the average prices rather than resulting from a redistribution of imports from low to high average price groups. The weakening correlation between changes in the dollar value and in the quantity of high unit value groups indicated that the control on quantity has not precluded increases in total dollar value of imports in higher processing stages, especially since 1970. Since fabrics with a relatively stable average price accounted for the major importation of cotton textiles during the 1964–1973 period, the overall control by quantity in this decade was still quite good, even though average prices of apparel were rising.     

浅析人民币升值对中国经济的影响

近年来人民币汇率受到国内外的高度关注,自从中国实行一揽子货币政策以来,人民币对美元汇率一路飙升,并且迫于美国的压力,央行表示仍要持续稳定的上升。人民币的升值对我国经济带来一系列积极和消极的影响。我国政府应通过经济、行政、法律手段将人民币升值速度控制在一个合理的范围内。     

Dynamics and peer effects of brand revenue in college sports

Team branding plays a key role in attracting corporate sponsorship for the multi-billion dollar business of college sports. In this paper, we study peer effects in the dynamic brand revenue evolution of major college sports teams that play in the same National Collegiate Athletic Association conferences. To examine the peer effects in each conference, we propose a new dynamic model that can identify conference-specific peer effects while capturing the dynamic evolution of brand revenue. Our model estimation results reveal significant positive peer effects in the six conferences — ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 — where the brand revenue of teams benefit from other teams in the same conference. Our modeling approach also sheds light on the effect of a conference switch on a team's brand revenue by showing the difference between predicted brand revenue with a switch and the predicted brand revenue without a switch.     

美元特权对美国贸易逆差的影响探析

美元特权的形成使贸易逆差成为输出美元的主要途径,并对贸易逆差起到了助长作用,集中表现在美元特权使美国维持着巨额贸易逆差而不受外汇储备短缺的制约和金融危机的威胁,却使其他追求美元储备的国家依靠贸易顺差和过度储蓄来摆脱不利处境,从而从供给和需求两个方面推动了美国贸易逆差的持续扩大。但贸易逆差的继续发展和未来的调整势必会影响美元特权地位的巩固,使世界经济特别是发展中国家的国际经济活动面临极大的风险。     

ADR rule of thumb: Validity and suggestions for its application

Hotel investors use the ADR rule of thumb because it's simple—a hotel should generate one dollar in ADR per every $1,000 in value per guest room; but that rule is not without its problems.     

Developing Consumer-Based Service Brand Equity via the Internet: The Role of Personalization and Trialability

The commercialization of the Internet has provided opportunities for building service brands in the minds of consumers. Services are characterized as intangible, heterogeneous, inseparable, and perishable features that often engender high information costs and, hence, low perceived value to potential consumers. When a service is available via the Internet—a medium that can subdivide and rebuild the service into personalized offerings—potential consumers become better informed in advance of what the service provides. The Internet also permits most services to be trialable before consumption. These new features, empowered by the Internet, have important implications for what we call consumer-based service brand equity (CSBE), the value that potential consumers assign to a service brand. This article investigates the effects of service personalization and trialability on the development of CSBE of Internet banking service, a typical service available via the Internet. Results from a laboratory experiment indicate that both service personalization and trialability have significant positive influences on the development of the CSBE of an Internet banking service brand. While personalization was found to indirectly influence CSBE development by mediating the perceived benefits of the brand, trialability exerted both a direct and an indirect effect. Trialability developed the brand's CSBE by first mediating the information through gathering cost savings and then the perceived benefits of the brand. Implications of the study's results are discussed.     

The Impact of Salesperson Perception of Firm Market Orientation on Behaviors and Consulting Effectiveness

The purpose of this study was to study market orientation as an antecedent of salespersons' behaviors that should, in turn, influence the ability of the salesperson to add value to the product or service. There have been many studies of personal antecedents of salespersons behaviors and performance, with little predictive success. But there are few studies of firm-level influences on salesperson behaviors and their outcomes. A survey was sent to non-retail salespeople utilizing previously validated scales for all constructs of interest. The survey responses were analyzed using structural equation modeling to test hypotheses. Results suggest that market orientation has an indirect influence on salesperson consulting through adaptive selling and active listening behaviors. Active listening fully mediates the relationship between customer orientation and salesperson consulting, while salesperson consulting fully mediates the relationship between active listening and consulting effectiveness. Half of the influence of market orientation on salesperson consulting effectiveness is direct, while the other half of its influence is indirect through those salesperson behaviors. The author provides explanations for these results and implications for managers and researchers.     

Services Linkages and the Value Added Content of Trade

Working with a set of global social accounting matrices spanning intermittent years from 1992 to 2011, this paper examines the services embodied in trade on a value added basis. Data include not only the direct and indirect contribution of services to value added contained in a given country's exports, but also the extent to which third‐country value added in services, through intermediate linkages of imported goods and services, is also embodied in production and trade. Our data indicate, in line with previous findings, that the ratio of value added to gross trade has been decreasing both for goods and for services, which is consistent with growing vertical production fragmentation. On the other hand, while value added in goods sectors including indirect exports is less than the gross value of exports, in services, it is greater, highlighting the service intensity of trade.     

Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value of the U.S. dollar and the world business cycle—in particular, to the strength or weakness in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia. Despite concerns raised by some policymakers that increased commodity index investment (the financialization of commodities) has driven commodity price movements, numerous academic studies have concluded that index-based investing has not moved prices or exacerbated volatility in commodity markets in recent years. An examination of weekly and monthly net flows into commodity mutual funds reveals that these flows have little or no effect on the overall growth rate of commodity prices. In particular, weekly flows into commodity mutual funds do not lead to future commodity price changes. These results are consistent with academic papers that find little or no impact of commodity index investors on commodity prices in individual markets. The paper concludes by briefly discussing three key factors that illustrate why flows into commodity mutual funds cannot explain commodity price movements.