Technical Analysis Profitability Without Data Snooping Bias: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

We perform a comprehensive analysis on the profitability of a large number of technical analysis based trading rules in Chinese stock market. To counter data snooping bias, we employ a stepwise superior predictive ability test to identify genuinely profitable trading rules among more than 28,000 technical signals. Using 19 years of daily data on Chinese aggregate stock market return, we find substantial evidence on the profitability of technical trading rules measured by either the market timing ability or Sharpe ratio gain. Our results on the profitability of technical rules hold during different subperiods and remain valid under the presence of transaction costs.     

A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets

This article investigates the profitability of technical trading rules in U.S. futures markets during the years 1985–2004. Statistical significance of performance across the trading rules is evaluated using White's Bootstrap Reality Check and Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability tests, which can directly measure the effect of data snooping by testing the performance of the best rule in the context of the full universe of technical trading rules. Results show that the best rules generate statistically significant economic profits for only two of 17 futures markets after correcting for data snooping biases. This evidence suggests that technical trading rules generally have not been profitable in the U.S. futures markets. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:633–659, 2010     

Half-day trading and spillovers

This paper investigates the linkage of returns and volatilities between the United States and Chinese stock markets from January 2010 to March 2020. We use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) GARCH models to calculate the time-varying correlations of these two markets and examine the return and volatility spillover effects between these two markets. The empirical results show that there are only unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. stock market to the Chinese stock market. The U.S. stock market has a consistently positive spillover to China’s next day’s morning trading, but its impact on China’s next day’s afternoon trading appears to be insignificant. This finding implies that information in the U.S. stock market impacts the performance of the Chinese stock market differently in distinct semi-day trading. Moreover, with respect to the volatility, there are significant bidirectional spillover effects between these two markets.     

Religion, Ethics and Stock Trading: The Case of an Islamic Equities Market

Islamic banking, based on the prohibition of interest, is well established throughout the Muslim world. Attention has now turned towards applying Islamic principles in equity markets. The search for alternatives to Western style markets has been given added impetus in Muslim countries by the turmoil in Asian financial markets in 1997. Common stocks are a legitimate form of instrument in Islam, but many of the practices associated with stock trading are not. In this paper the instruments traded and the structure and practices of stock markets are examined from an Islamic perspective. Speculation is not acceptable in Islam and measures would have to be taken to control speculative trading. In addition short selling and margin trading are severely restricted. The use of stock index and equity futures and options are also unlikely to be acceptable within an Islamic market. Regulatory authorities in Muslim countries will therefore find a vast array of problems in attempting to structure a trading system that will be acceptable.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

How Have the Emerging Stock Exchanges in Africa Responded to Market Reforms?

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on how the stock markets in Africa have responded to the reform process. We identify three main types of reforms implemented in these markets since the 1990s, namely revitalization of the regulatory framework, modernization of trading systems, and relaxation of restrictions on foreign investors. We invoke market microstructure theory to hypothesize the expected response of the markets in terms of efficiency and volatility to the three types of reforms. Econometric methods are applied to test the hypotheses on a sample of ten stock exchanges, for the period 1988:01-1999:12. The evidence generally suggests that there are benefits of investments to improve market microstructure. For example, a comparative analysis across the sample demonstrates that markets with advanced trading technology, tight regulatory system and relaxed foreign investors' participation show greater efficiency and lower market volatility. Although direction of causality between efficiency and volatility varies across the markets, in general, we infer that reforms, which reduce volatility, reap higher efficiency. However, in some markets, the effects of the reforms are too recent to show any clear response pattern.     

技术分析的经济收益与市场有效性

技术分析是现代金融市场中一种重要的投资分析工具。本文基于沪深两地的证券市场,对双重移动均线交错、交易区间突破、亚历山大过滤规则、相对强度指数等常用的技术交易规则进行了全面的实证检验,采用了参数优化和样本外测试的方法来解决数据过度挖掘的问题,考虑了交易成本和风险因素,发现技术分析确实能够产生显著的经济收益,这说明我国证券市场尚未达到弱式有效。     

The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets

This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock‐bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implications for portfolio management and asset allocation. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1066–1094, 2008     

Insider trading laws and price informativeness in emerging stock markets: The South African case

We test the view that insider trading deters informativeness and, thereby, provide empirical evidence on the ramifications of insider trading legislation, particularly in an emerging market, that has hitherto received no research attention. Using the difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that “effective insider trading law” improves stock price informativeness, a reflection of market efficiency, and that this efficiency is robust to both economic factors that affect market efficiency and the choice of control. Importantly, our results support the hypothesis that prohibition of insider trading elicits efficiency enhancement, particularly in emerging markets which are often characterized by weaker requisite institutional infrastructure than developed markets.     

Fragmentation and complementarity: The case of EFPs

With the proliferation of alternative markets, concerns have arisen that they may induce lower liquidity on centralized exchanges. In futures markets, the use of an alternative trading mechanism known as exchange of futures for physicals (EFPs) has increased sharply in recent years. EFPs provide a means to obtain futures positions, coupled with offsetting cash positions, away from the centralized exchange. Traders use EFPs to ensure a desired price on complex packages of trades, thus avoiding the transactional risk (slippage) that is inherent in the centralized market. Theoretical analysis establishes that any detrimental effects of fragmenting the centralized market can be offset by traders' knowledge of another opportunity to trade without transactional risk. If EFPs attract more risk‐bearing capacity, there could even be a net benefit to the central market. An empirical analysis suggests that EFP trading is motivated by transactional risk because it represents a larger portion of total trading during periods of unusually high volatility when slippage is apt to be more of a problem. Consistent with the notion that alternative markets can be complementary to centralized exchanges, we find that EFP trading is not associated with reductions in market quality and may act as an outlet for extra volume when markets are under the most stress. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:697–727, 2002     

Further evidence of the influence of option expiration on the underlying common stock

Over the past decade there has been increasing research into the interaction among the securities options markets and other institutions. Of particular interest in the earliest research was the extent to which social efficiency is enhanced by the trading of puts and calls. Since it is now well established that market-spanning opportunities are more complete when options are available, recent research has been directed toward such issues as the informational efficiency of the options exchanges and the relationship between an option premium and the behavior of the underlying common stock. Of interest to us in this research is the latter issue. We find significant new evidence that in the final two days of trading prior to the expiration of an option series, the presence of options influences some underlying stock prices.     

Hat die Einführung der Abgeltungsteuer Aktienkurse beeinflusst?

This paper discusses findings of a current research project whose results indicate that the implementation of the German flat withholding tax on capital gains at the turn of the year 2008–09 led to a temporary but significant increase in trading volumes and share prices on the German stock market. As this capital gains tax reform had already been announced in 2007, corresponding market reactions imply a delayed dissemination of tax information. Hence, our results raise some doubt regarding the information-processing capacity of stock markets. This holds true especially in the following circumstances: 1) extensive trading activities of individual investors with limited information access and attention; 2) a strong focus by a large group of individual investors to a limited number of trading days (herd behaviour); and 3) limited liquidity in the market (e.g. stocks with a small market capitalisation).     

International Linkages among Stock Markets of Malaysia and Its Major Trading Partners

This study empirically examines the short- and long-run dynamic causal linkages between Malaysia and its major trading partners (the United States, Japan, Singapore, China, and Thailand) based on a two-step estimation, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) during the period 1992–2008. The study documents that the stronger the trade ties among the countries, the higher the degree of comovements among their stock markets. The Japanese stock market, to some extent, is found to be more important than the United States over these markets. In designing stock market policies, each country should take into consideration of any shocks in its major trading partners.     

Margin trading and spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

Using a sample of Chinese stocks, we demonstrate that liquidity and return in stocks with margin trading can spread to other stocks causing spillover effects. Furthermore, the level of margin interest has a positive relation with the degree of spillover effects from relevant stocks. In addition to the deleverage mechanism which has received support from recent studies, we propose the cross-asset learning behavior in stock markets as a new mechanism to explain such relation. The mediation models suggest that the cross-asset learning mechanism can explain a large proportion of the relation between margin trading and spillover effects in stock markets.     

Banks,stock markets,and China's ‘great leap forward’

Using quarterly data for 1995–2005, we examine the role of financial factors in China's recent increases in real sector activity. After describing the institutional challenges that China faces in building a well-functioning equity market to complement its banking system, a series of cointegrated vector autoregressive models and the associated variance decompositions and impulse response functions show that banking sector development was central to these successes. At the same time, we find that stock market development, as measured by market size and trading volume, did not contribute significantly to them. We suspect that lingering questions regarding the quality of China's stock markets are largely responsible for the latter result, though it also may reflect the smaller size of the “stock market economy” relative to the broader economy in which we measure outcomes.     

股指期货如何影响股市稳定性?——对全球主要市场的三角度实证检验

以全球多个市场作为实证检验对象,从股市波动率变化、系统风险变化以及股市正反馈交易行为影响三个角度,分析股指期货市场稳定作用的含义,即对股市波动的影响及其作用表现,较为全面地解读股指期货的市场稳定作用。研究发现:三个角度都支持股指期货的市场稳定作用;而抑制正反馈交易的作用最为基础、直接和显著,是股指期货市场稳定作用的更为恰当的判断标准。     

Does Index Futures Trading Reduce Volatility in the Chinese Stock Market? A Panel Data Evaluation Approach

This study investigates the effect of introducing index futures trading on the spot price volatility in the Chinese stock market. We employ a recently developed panel data policy evaluation approach (Hsiao, Ching, and Wan, 2011) to construct counterfactuals of the spot market volatility, based mainly on cross‐sectional correlations between the Chinese and international stock markets. This new method does not need to specify a particular regression or a time‐series model for the volatility process around the introduction date of index futures trading, and thus avoids the potential omitted variable bias caused by uncontrolled market factors in the existing literature. Our results provide empirical evidence that the introduction of index futures trading significantly reduces the volatility of the Chinese stock market, which is robust to different model selection criteria and various prediction approaches. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:1167–1190, 2013     

Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

The interaction between foreigners' trading and emerging stock returns: Evidence from Turkey

Using monthly foreign flows data on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and employing a structural VAR model, we analyze the interaction between foreigners' trading and emerging stock returns. In contrast to most of the available theory and repeated previous findings on other markets, foreign investors negative-feedback-trade with respect to past local returns in ISE, however only in rising markets and especially under macroeconomic instability. Net foreign flows forecast future market returns, but not individual stock returns. Price impacts are permanent, suggesting that foreigners' trading incorporates information. Overall, results reject previous conclusions that foreigners are uninformed positive feedback traders: rather, they are a heterogeneous group dominated by sophisticated investors able to rationally adjust their trading style in line with the market's prevailing characteristics.     

Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach

The effect of financial shocks on the cross‐market linkages between oil prices (spot and futures) and stock markets is examined for four major crises. We employ the local Gaussian correlation approach and find that the two markets were regionalized for most of the 1990s and the early 2000s. Flights from stocks to oil occur in all crisis episodes, except the recent global financial crisis. The view that stock and oil markets behave like “a market of one” after the financialization of commodities is further supported by the presence of contagion between US stock markets and all the benchmark oil markets.