Preparing for a Smooth (Eventual) Exit

One aspect of the U.S. Federal Reserve's efforts to mitigate the financial crisis was the accumulation of unprecedented levels of assets. As financial and economic conditions become healthy and sustainable, the U.S. Federal Reserve will wind down these positions. Doing so without disruption poses serious challenges, but they are challenges that the U.S. Federal Reserve has considered carefully and that can be managed successfully. The approach features caution and transparency and must be coordinated with traditional monetary policy. This paper describes the potential effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve's exit activities and how it will control them.     

浅析美联储“量化宽松”的货币政策

从2008年3月27日至2010年3月18日,美联储面对汹涌而来的金融危机打开印钞机,资产总额大幅上升,基于美联储所采取的种种举动,总结出美联储量化宽松的货币政策的特点,并且分析它所产生的影响。     

The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: An Erosion of Ethics: A Case Study

This case study examines five dimensions of the 2007–2009 financial crisis in the United States: (1) the devastating effects of the financial crisis on the U.S. economy, including unparalleled unemployment, massive declines in gross domestic product (GDP), and the prolonged mortgage foreclosure crisis; (2) the multiple causes of the financial crisis and panic, such as the housing and bond bubbles, excessive leverage, lax financial regulation, disgraceful banking practices, and abysmal rating agency performance; (3) the extraordinary efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Department of the Treasury to stem the financial freefall triggered by the crisis and resuscitate financial institutions, (4) the ethical implications of the unprecedented actions by government institutions to rescue financial institutions and drag the country back from the brink of global financial collapse, and the conduct of the various parties contributing to the financial crisis, such as the shoddy behavior of mortgage brokers, the massive securitization of mortgages into overly complex bonds, the excessive leverage of financial institutions, the disgraceful work of bond rating firms, the abysmal risk management systems employed by financial institutions, and the massive operations of the shadow banking and over-the-counter derivatives markets; and (5) the major provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act signed into law to in response to the financial crisis and for the purpose of correcting the egregious conduct of major financial institutions.     

Central Banking in the Crisis: Conceptual Convergence and Open Questions on Unconventional Monetary Policy

The advanced economies — financial crisis that began in 2007 was triggered by factors that could not have been easily foreseen but also by factors that had been familiar since the Great Depression but were ignored or forgotten. However, once the crisis was apparent, central banks of the major advanced economies — the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan reacted quickly and with a remarkable convergence of policy with respect to defining price stability, communication, enhanced banking surveillance, the role of money and monetary aggregates, unconventional liquidity supply, and forward guidance. These elements of convergence are discussed with respect to their strength and possible dangers in stabilizing the global financial system.     

A Two-Headed Dragon for Monetary Policy

The current financial crisis has been the key global economic event since it unfolded in earnest in early August 2007. The Federal Reserve has taken aggressive actions—both conventional and unconventional—to counteract the economic and financial fallout. Among these actions have been a number of new special lending programs created under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, which had not been employed since the 1930s. Academics, policymakers, and the general public have shown great interest in the Federal Reserve's new programs. In this paper, I emphasize two medium-term risks that the Federal Reserve now faces as it continues to confront financial market turmoil and recession. The two medium-term risks are opposites of each other, a “two-headed dragon.” One is a Japanese-style deflation trap, and the other is a breakout of inflation like that seen during the 1970s. An explicit inflation target would help mitigate these very real risks.     

The Financial Crisis and the Implementation of Monetary Policy

The ongoing financial crisis has had a dramatic impact on how the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. In this paper I outline how the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy during “ordinary” circumstances, and compare and contrast this with how it has implemented policy in the wake of the crisis, especially in the latter part of 2008.     

Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option-implied volatility indices

With option-implied volatility indices, we identify networks of global volatility spillovers and examine time-varying systemic risk across global financial markets. The U.S. stock market is the center of the network and plays a dominant role in the spread of volatility spillover to other markets. The global systemic risks have intensified since the Federal Reserve exited from quantitative easing, hiked interest rate, and shrank its balance sheet. We further show that the U.S. monetary tightening is an important catalyst for the intensifying global systemic risk. Our findings highlight the pernicious effects of monetary tightening after an era of cheap money.     

A Tale of Two Crises: One We Missed and One We Can’t Afford To

The current economic crisis seems to be waning, largely due to effective federal government and Federal Reserve responses. Economists deserve credit for helping to avoid the abyss, but we failed to predict the crisis and warn policymakers so that the crisis could have been mitigated or avoided. We must not miss predicting the next crisis, however, as it is staring us in the face. We can see clearly that federal debt will severely damage the U.S. economy within several decades under current policy. Moreover, simulations that take into account the effect of debt on interest rates indicate that the depressing effect on the U.S. economy will be even worse than official projections suggest.     

E-coli,Repo Madness,and the Financial Crisis

All bond prices plummeted (spreads rose) during the financial crisis, not just the prices of subprime-related bonds. These price declines were because of a banking panic in which institutional investors and firms refused to renew sale and repurchase agreements (repos)—short-term, collateralized, agreements that the U.S. Federal Reserve rightly used to count as money. Collateral for repos was, to a large extent, securitized bonds. Firms were forced to sell assets as a result of the banking panic, reducing all bond prices and creating losses. There is nothing mysterious or irrational about the panic. There were genuine fears about the locations of subprime risk concentrations among counterparties. This banking system (the “shadow” or “parallel” banking system)—repos based on securitization—is a genuine banking system, as large as the traditional, regulated banking system. It is of critical importance to the economy because it is the funding basis for the traditional banking system. Without it, traditional banks will not lend and credit will not be created.     

Federal Reserve Independence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: Should We Be Worried?

The extraordinary circumstances of the past few years have led to extraordinary responses by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. These ventures into uncharted waters have heightened political scrutiny to the point of raising concern about future independence. In discussing independence of the Federal Reserve, it is important to separate its regulatory and supervisory functions from its monetary policy function. It is the latter in which the question of independence is most important. History indicates that independent monetary policy has been a powerful deterrent to inflation. This paper outlines the threats to Federal Reserve independence, particularly as it exists from the unconventional policies that it pursued to mitigate the financial crisis. Economists have an important role in making the case that monetary policy remains independent.     

浅谈新贸易保护主义影响及对策

由美国"次贷危机"引发的全球金融危机给世界经济和贸易带来了巨大灾难,整个世界经济陷入衰退之中,失业剧增.为了拯救国内经济,西方各国纷纷掀起了救市的热潮,不少国家筑起了贸易壁垒,引发了全球新一轮的贸易保护主义浪潮.     

全球经济失衡与调整的政治经济学分析

美国金融危机爆发以来,全球经济失衡及其调整逐渐成为世界主要国家争论与战略博弈的一个焦点问题。本文在分析全球经济失衡的内涵及其成本的基础上,重点探讨了全球失衡的国内调整与国家间调整,认为寻求国内不同利益集团的利益平衡和主要相关国家之间失衡调整成本分担的平衡是决定全球经济失衡调整能否成功的关键。     

Lessons from the Financial Crisis: New Rules for Central Banks and Credit Rating Agencies?

The US mortgage crisis, which has spiralled into what is now seen as the most serious global financial upheaval since the 1930s, has provoked criticism of the Federal Reserve for its failure to recognise, and act on, the real estate bubble. Credit rating agencies, too, have come under heavy fire for having actively contributed to the present crisis. Should central banks pay special attention to, and try to influence, the development of asset prices? Is statutory regulation of rating agencies required? If so, what form should it take? Is the European Commission’s recently issued draft up to its purpose?     

债务经济、美元回流与全球经济失衡——兼论后危机时代中国的应对

金融危机予美国经济以重创,美国迫切需要在全球转嫁其损失,以实现其所谓的全球经济再平衡。文章探讨了美国如何借助美元这一霸权货币,通过美元的国际循环在全球进行债务扩散,以及由此造成全球经济结构失衡的内在机理。研究发现,当前国际分工格局的错位导致了美国巨大的贸易逆差,美国的高赤字率和低储蓄率是造成经济失衡的根源;美国通过美元输出及美元回流在全球进行债务扩散及债务转嫁;经济结构的严重失衡及美联储量化宽松的货币政策导致超发货币,这必然加速美元危机的到来。后危机时代经济失衡的治理必须加强中国等新兴国家的作用。     

鲁伟鼎 长袖善舞的资本高手

在万向集团,父亲鲁冠球坐的是VOLVO——全球安全系数最高的轿车。儿子鲁伟鼎选择的是讲求速度与驾驶快感的BMW。车如其人。在经营操作中,鲁伟鼎讲速度、有闯劲,冲在第一线;鲁冠球则经常往后拉一拉,严格地掌控着企业的安全系数。     

阿根廷的金融开放与银行危机

阿根廷是美国赞扬的金融自由化典型,银行证券业向外资开放的力度大,但其爆发金融危机造成的破坏也格外严重。本文论述了阿根廷金融危机与经济全球化进程,特别是与金融开放和资本市场自由化的联系,分析了阿根廷吸引跨国银行投资,对于本国金融体系稳定所产生的影响,以及资本外逃如何给民众造成重大损失。本文还论述了中国应如何吸取阿根廷的教训,慎重对待外资收购、兼并和MBO,特别是“入世”后银行证券业的开放,更好地维护本国经济金融安全,防范风险。     

Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.     

次贷危机对我国金融创新监管的启示

通过对次贷危机传导机制的分析我们可以看到,对金融创新监管的滞后、不到位是导致危机迅速扩大蔓延的重要原因,这暴露出美国金融监管体制在金融创新监管方面存在的缺陷,而我国在金融创新监管方面与美国存在一些共性的问题,我们要正确处理金融创新与金融监管关系,完善监管体系结构,较变"机构监管"为"功能监管",创新监管方式。     

美国经济的信贷紧缩和美联储货币政策工具创新

2007年美国爆发次贷危机,次贷危机引发信贷紧缩,信贷紧缩对美国实体经济的消极影响具体表现为:住宅投资急剧下降、企业投资急剧下降和个人消费支出的减少。信贷紧缩影响了实体经济,使美国陷入了经济衰退。美联储在这次金融危机中为稳定金融体系积极充当金融体系"最终贷款人"角色,美联储在使用传统金融工具的同时,积极创新,开发了多种新的工具。定期拍卖工具、定期证券出借工具、一级交易商信贷工具、与外国中央银行的货币互换和干预商业票据市场。当然,美联储一系列的政策创新举措也引发了许多担忧。     

国际金融危机与“购买美国货”条款

美国爆发的金融危机给全球金融和经济贸易带来极大的影响,为此,各国纷纷出台应对当前金融危机、刺激经济复苏的政策和措施,美国更是如此。2009年2月17日,美国总统奥巴马签署了《2009年美国复兴与再投资法》,①使之正式成为法律生效,奥巴马"新政"由此也正式启航。然而,美国应对金融危机、刺激经济复苏方案出台前后,不仅在美国国内引起激烈争论,而且在全球范围内也引起轩然大波,矛盾的焦点主要集中在该法的"购买美国货"条款上。带有明显贸易保护主义的"购买美国货"条款出台,使世界上贸易保护主义进一步抬头和泛滥,各国在应对金融和经济危机的同时,不得不与贸易保护主义作斗争。