The impact of E‐Verify mandates on labor market outcomes

A number of states have adopted laws that require employers to use the federal government's E‐Verify program to check workers' eligibility to work legally in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines whether such laws affect labor market outcomes among Mexican immigrants who are likely to be unauthorized. We find evidence that E‐Verify mandates reduce average hourly earnings among likely unauthorized male Mexican immigrants while increasing labor force participation among likely unauthorized female Mexican immigrants. Furthermore, the mandates appear to lead to better labor market outcomes among workers likely to compete with unauthorized immigrants. Employment rises among male Mexican immigrants who are naturalized citizens in states that adopt E‐Verify mandates, and earnings rise among U.S.‐born Hispanic men. There is no evidence of significant effects among U.S.‐born non‐Hispanic whites.     

Coping with regional inequality in Sweden: structural change,migrations, and policy, 1860–2000

In many countries, regional income inequality has followed an inverted U‐shaped curve, growing during industrialization and market integration and declining thereafter. By contrast, Sweden's regional inequality dropped from 1860 to 1980 and did not exhibit this U‐shaped pattern. Accordingly, today's regional income inequality in Sweden is lower than in other European countries. We note that the prime mover behind the long‐run reduction in regional income differentials was structural change, whereas neoclassical and technological forces played a relatively less important role. However, this process of regional income convergence can be divided into three major periods. During the first period (1860–1940), the unrestricted action of market forces, particularly the expansion of markets and high rates of internal and international migration, led to the compression of regional income differentials. During the next period (1940–80), regional convergence was even more intense. In this period, institutional arrangements favoured the reduction of productivity differentials across industries and successive governments aided the reallocation of the workforce from declining to thriving regions and economic sectors. During the last period (1980–2000), when regional incomes diverged, internal migration and structural change slowed. Furthermore, the development of knowledge‐intensive service industries favoured economic growth in the main metropolitan areas.     

Revisiting Growth‐Poverty Relationship: A Medium‐Term Causality Approach

This article examines the potential medium‐term causal relationship between changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and poverty in developing countries during the 1970s–1990s. For this purpose, we use panel data model evaluation techniques to test the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of competing models. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that increases in GDP per capita cause unidirectional poverty reduction, measured by the $1/day poverty rate, in the period 1970s–1980s. The results are similar when analysing low‐ and middle‐income countries and mid‐high‐ and very high‐inequality countries separately. However, in the period 1980s–1990s, it is only statistically significant for low‐income countries.     

Recent Trends in the Skill Composition of Legal U.S. Immigrants

We examine fluctuations in the predicted educational attainment of newly arrived legal U.S. immigrants between 1972 and 1999 by combining data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service with the Current Population Survey. A mid-1980s decline gave way to a noticeable improvement in the skill base of the immigrant population between 1987 and 1993. A short decline in the quality of immigrant skills—less severe than that of the mid-1980s—took place in the mid-1990s. In 1998, the trend reverses once more: The labor market quality of new legal U.S. immigrants improves. The primary sources of the fluctuations include changes in the quality and quantity of immigrants obtaining an adjustment and variations in the distribution of source regions and entry class types among new legal U.S. immigrants.     

The Long‐run and Short‐run Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Financial Development in African Countries

This paper contributes to the understanding of the other neglected effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) by analysing how FDI affects financial development in the short run and long run for a panel of 49 African countries over the period 1990–2016. The empirical evidence is based on a pooled mean group approach. With three panels differentiated by income level, the following findings are established: first, while there is a positive and significant long‐run relationship between FDI and financial development in Africa, in the short run the effect of FDI on financial development is negative. Second, the effect of FDI is positive and significant in the long run in the three sub‐samples. However, in the short run, the effect of FDI is negative and significant in lower‐income countries and non‐significant in lower‐middle‐income and upper‐middle‐income countries. Overall we find strong evidence supporting the view that FDI promotes financial development in African countries in the long run.     

Remittances' Influence on Housing Construction Demand in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Kenya

Abstract: Although it is well documented that immigrants maintain economic and social ties with their communities of origin through remittances, the role of remittances in asset acquisition for most African countries is yet to be documented. This study provides empirical estimates for the impact of remittances from abroad on housing construction demand in Kenya using time series data for the period 1970–2008. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling process is employed to capture the effect of remittances and other variables on housing construction demand. The computed short‐ and long‐run elasticities indicate that inbound remittances are one of the determinants of housing construction demand in Kenya. Other significant determinants include income, interest rates and urbanization growth.     

IMPORTED SKILL‐BIASED TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper discusses the occurrence of skill‐enhancing technology import, namely, the relationship between imports of embodied technology and widening skill‐based employment differentials in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques are applied to an original panel dataset comprising 28 manufacturing sectors for 23 countries over a decade. Econometric results provide robust evidence of the determinants of widening employment differentials in low‐ and middle‐income countries. In particular, the proposed empirical evidence indicates capital–skill complementarity as a possible source of skill bias, while imported skill‐enhancing technology emerges as an additional driver of increasing demand for the skilled workers in these countries.     

Tax‐Avoidance Activities of U.S. Multinational Corporations*

This paper investigates whether economies of scale exist for tax planning. In particular, do larger, more profitable, multinational corporations avoid more taxes than other firms, resulting in lower effective tax rates? While the empirical results indicate that, ceteris paribus, larger corporations have higher effective tax rates, firms with greater pre‐tax income have lower effective tax rates. The negative relation between effective tax rates (ETRs) and pretax income is consistent with firms with greater pre‐tax income having more incentives and resources to engage in tax planning. Consistent with multinational corporations being able to avoid income taxes that domestic‐only companies cannot, I find that multinational corporations in general, and multinational corporations with more extensive foreign operations, have lower worldwide ETRs than other firms. Finally, in a sample of multinational corporations only, I find that higher levels of U.S. pre‐tax income are associated with lower U.S. and foreign ETRs, while higher levels of foreign pre‐tax income are associated with higher U.S. and foreign ETRs. Thus, large amounts of foreign income are associated with higher corporate tax burdens. Overall, I find substantial evidence of economies of scale to tax planning.     

The Short‐Term Economic Impact of Levying E‐Tolls on Industries

TERM is used to analyse the short‐term regional economic impact of an increase in industries' transport costs when paying E‐Tolls. Market‐clearing and accounting equations allow regional economies to be represented as an integrated framework, labour adjusts to accommodate increasing transportation costs, and investments change to accommodate capital that is fixed. 1 1 TERM is a bottom‐up CGE model designed for highly disaggregated regional data. The Enormous Regional Model's originate from Horridge et al. ( 2005 ) and are better explained in Horridge ( 2011 ).
We concluded that costs from levying E‐Tolls on industries are small in comparison to total transport costs, and the impact on economic aggregates and most industries are marginal: investments (?0.404%), gross domestic product (GDP) (?0.01) and consumer price inflation (?0.10%). This is true even when considering costs and benefits on industries as well as consumers. Industries that experienced the greatest decline in output were transport, construction and gold. Provinces that are closer to Gauteng and have a greater share of severely impacted industries experienced larger GDP and real income reductions. Mpumalanga's decrease in GDP was 17% greater than Gauteng's.     

LONG-RUN M3 DEMAND IN SOUTH AFRICA: A COINTEGRATED VAR MODEL

This paper presents a system cointegration analysis of a long‐run demand for money (measured in terms of M3) in South Africa. In particular, the paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregression model, consisting of real money, income and the opportunity cost of holding money. Using a variety of theory consistent identification schemes, the money demand function is identified along with other two cointegrating relations, namely, an IS‐type relationship and a relationship relating inflation to the spread between long‐ and short‐term interest rates. The model shows that of the variables used, only income and real money are error‐correcting to the money demand relation. The money demand relation is found to be relatively stable over the sample period, when short‐run fluctuations are corrected for. The model further shows that the long‐run link between money and inflation is rather weak.     

Change of U.S.‐Russia relations after the September 11 terrorist attacks

This paper analyzes the changes of U.S.‐Russia relations after September 11. The analysis deals with the issues relating to both military and economic cooperation. In particular, this article focuses on examining the impact of the terrorist attacks on U.S.‐Russian relations. Specifically, the paper discusses the results of the visit of U.S. President Bush to Russia and its impacts on the relations between the two countries. First, the paper analyzes the U.S. position toward Russia under the Bush Administration before the terrorist attacks. Second, it looks at how Russia perceived and took advantage of the terrorist attacks to improve its relations with the United States. Third, it explores the nature of the quasi alliance between the United States and Russia. And finally, it examines the possibilities and limitations of the long‐term cooperation agreement between the U.S. and Russia from an economic and military perspective.     

Rethinking the impact of GDP on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels

This paper examines the nonlinear impact of real GDP per capita on financial development in a panel of 125 countries. It also determines the moderating effect of inflation on the impact of GDP on financial development. It employs the dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the dynamic common correlated effects (CCE) to do both panel and country‐specific analysis, as well as control for cross‐sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. This study shows that GDP has a positive impact on financial development in the entire panel. However, when we split the panel into different income groups, we find a positive impact in the high‐ and middle‐income groups while the impact is insignificant in the low income group. Although we find no evidence of a nonlinear impact of GDP on financial development in the panel, the country‐specific analysis reveals a significant nonlinear relationship between GDP and financial development in 73 countries. We also show that inflation adversely moderates the positive impact of GDP on financial development in middle‐income countries. This study implies that the relationship between GDP and financial development depends on the levels of GDP and inflation rate. We recommend some policy options based on the findings.     

Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Mexican output

This paper examines the potential effects of macroeconomic policies, stock market performance, exchange rate fluctuations, and other related variables on real GDP in Mexico. Extending the works by Arango and Nadiri (1981) and Bahmani‐Oskooee and Ng (2002), and applying comparative‐static analysis, possible effects of a change in the exchange rate or government debt on the equilibrium output are examined. All the variables have unit roots and are stationary in first difference. There is a long‐run stable relationship between real GDP and the right‐hand‐side variables. The GARCH(p,q) (Engle 2001) model is applied to estimate regression parameters. Real GDP is positively associated with real M2, government deficit spending, stock prices, U.S. output, and world oil prices, and negatively affected by the government debt ratio, peso depreciation, and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, fiscal policy to incur more debt needs to be pursued with caution, and both net exports and money demand need to be considered in studying the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on output.     

How Can China Avoid the Middle Income Trap?

Many middle income economies have been unable to advance to become high income economies over a period of 50 years or longer, not due to the existence of middle income traps, but because of the overly broad income range in the definition of middle income economies. The middle income trap is, in essence, a growth trap, and refers to the situation in which a middle income economy experiences growth stagnation or a growth rate that is lower than that of high income economies. Nonetheless, it is hard to fully comprehend the formation of the trap solely based on growth theories. Historical data indicate that the middle income economies do not lack growth potential, and the real problem is that although their long‐term average growth rates are higher than those of the high income economies, their average growth rates over a business cycle or an even longer period of time often fall below those of the high income economies. The cause of this phenomenon is neither short‐term macroeconomic fluctuations nor long‐term growth potential, but the frequent occurrence of financial crises in middle income economies. As a middle income economy, China is also facing the risk of a financial crisis, and the key to avoiding the middle income trap is to guard against future financial crises, preventing unsound financial liberalization and mismanagement of the corporate debt ratio.     

The English monetary economy,c. 973–1100: the contribution of single‐finds1

A body of nearly 2,000 English finds of individual coins minted c. 973–1100 is surveyed as evidence for the scale and form of the monetary economy. A long‐term view indicates that this was a period of expansion in coin use, although growth in this area remained limited compared to the later middle ages, or even the eighth century. Within the eleventh century single‐finds suggest more specific developments, including a decline in coin use after the Norman Conquest, and substantial short‐term fluctuations related to various economic and monetary factors. Comparison with estimates of coin production suggests a general trend for more of mints' output to enter domestic circulation after c. 1030/40, though this need not solely reflect an increase in monetization. These chronological changes are compared with the pattern of circulation within England. Overall, the kingdom enjoyed a unified currency which did not see marked localization of coin circulation. Parts of northern England were less integrated with the south, but not so far as to suggest active exclusion of non‐local coin. More striking was a general trend for both production and circulation to be concentrated in the east and the south.     

Field Experiment Tests for Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. Rental Housing Market

This article tests for discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. rental housing market using e‐mail correspondence with landlords advertising units online. We divide Hispanics into two groups: those that appear assimilated into American culture and recent immigrants. We find little difference in the treatment of assimilated Hispanics and whites; however, Hispanics we portray as recent immigrants receive less favorable treatment with margins of net discrimination as large as 6.89% of landlords. We also find discrimination varies significantly at the region level and by the ethnic composition of neighborhoods.     

The Elasticity of Taxable Income during the 1990s: New Estimates and Sensitivity Analyses

Over the past two decades, the elasticity of taxable income has emerged as the central parameter for assessing efficiency and revenue implications from changes to tax policy. This article estimates short‐ and longer‐run responses of taxable (and gross) income to changes in tax rates using panels of U.S. tax returns for the 1990s. With the richest set of income controls, income—weighted elasticity estimates range from 0.19 to 0.33, depending on whether responses are measured over one‐ or three‐year intervals. An alternative approach designed to capture delayed and anticipatory responses yields much larger estimates—ranging from 0.43 over the short term and from 0.78 to 1.46 over the longer term. A continuing obstacle to identification encountered here is that the income controls most likely to control for mean reversion and divergence within the income distribution are also the most likely to absorb independent variation in tax rates, also needed for identification.     

Cross‐Country Evidence on the Importance of Auditor Choice to Corporate Debt Maturity

We examine the importance of Big Four audits in reducing agency costs evident in corporate debt maturity worldwide. Analyzing a large sample of public firms from 42 countries reveals that the fraction of long‐term debt in firms' capital structures rises with the presence of a Big Four auditor, suggesting that higher‐quality audits substitute for short‐term debt for monitoring purposes. In additional analyses, we find that the role that auditor choice plays in debt maturity is concentrated in firms from countries with strong legal institutions governing property rights and creditor rights. Collectively, our research implies that Big Four audits matter to corporate debt maturity, although the impact is isolated in firms operating in countries with more protective legal regimes.     

Non‐farm employment and incomes in rural Cambodia

Rural households in Cambodia derive income from various sources. On average, non‐farm income accounts for more than 60 per cent of total household income. However, the average masks the substantial heterogeneity of non‐farm employment. We account for this heterogeneity and find significant differences in non‐farm participation and incomes across segments of the income distribution. The poor and the less well‐educated participate less in the non‐farm sector, and when they do work in the non‐farm sector, they work in low‐paid jobs and earn lower incomes. Accounting for endogeneity and sample selection issues, we conduct an empirical enquiry of the determinants of participation in non‐farm activities and of non‐farm incomes. As expected, we find that education plays a major role in accessing more remunerative non‐farm employment. Interestingly, we do not find evidence that women, ethnic minorities, or the land‐poor are disadvantaged in access to the non‐farm sector. Geographical location plays a role in access to and income from non‐farm employment, indicating the importance of local context.     

The Impact of Research and Development on Economic Growth and Productivity in the U.S. States

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056–0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82–211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70–80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own‐ and other‐R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own‐state R&D elasticity but the highest other‐R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors.