A few bad apples: Communication in the presence of strategic ideologues

I propose a very simple model of strategic communication. The motivation is to help explain widespread persistent disagreement about objective facts. In the model, there is a message sender and a receiver, and two possible states of the world, left or right. The sender is one of three types: honest, or a leftist or rightist “ideologue.” The honest type observes a private signal in , with higher values implying stronger support for the right state, and reports the observed value truthfully. Ideologues strategically choose any message from this set to maximize the receiver's belief in their preferred state, ignoring any private information they may have. I show that a small presence of ideologues can have a large effect on communication: while we might expect ideologues to just send extreme messages, in most equilibria ideologues use “strategic understatement,” and in many cases actually mix over all non‐neutral (non‐N∕2) messages to mimic honest types and gain credibility. This distorts the interpretation of these messages such that all messages on a side of the spectrum (above or below N∕2) have the same effect on receiver beliefs. This coarsened communication is less informative than even the weakest non‐neutral messages in the absence of ideologues. I show by example how ideologues can cause large delays in the time required for receiver beliefs to converge to truth.     

The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior

Sports and racetrack betting markets have been investigated by researchers for more than 50 years. Many authors have argued that the observed biases and inefficiencies in these markets are a consequence of bettors incorrectly assessing the objective probabilities that favorites or underdogs will win. This article is the first examination of the National Football League season wins total over/under betting market where the designations of favorite and longshot do not apply. The market is found to be highly inefficient, providing several opportunities for profitable wagering. We believe these inefficiencies are a consequence of the representativeness heuristic. Most significantly, there is evidence that bettors, when considering teams with strong records in the previous season, overreact to historical performance and fail to recognize the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean.     

Dueling Jackpots: Are Competing Lotto Games Complements or Substitutes?

This paper considers the relationship that exists between two lottery products offered simultaneously in the same state, a smaller lottery game run by the individual state and a larger multi-state game run in coordination with other states. The primary issue is whether the two different products should be considered substitutes or complements for one another. The question is considered from two different perspectives that lead to a conclusion that while the two products do tend to be complements to one another, overall the individually run state lottery games experience a reduction in sales from the presence of the multi-state game.     

Reevaluation of the Employment Impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games

Using empirical methods published more recently than our earlier analysis found in this journal, we continue to find a statistically significant and substantial employment impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games in Atlanta. Post‐Olympics versus pre‐Olympics employment gains in counties affected by the Olympics exceeded employment gains in the rest of the counties in Georgia by 11% by the end of 2000. In addition, Olympics‐affected counties in the metro Atlanta area experienced employment gains relative to other major Southern metropolitan statistical areas of roughly 5%. These results stand up to robustness and falsification tests.     

Impact of the Information Asymmetry Between Managers and Owners Under Oligopoly

We show, using a Hotelling (1929) model with Laffont and Tirole (1986) firms, that under duopoly, the information asymmetry caused by the separation of ownership and control has two effects on owners’ incentives to induce effort. Information asymmetry raises the marginal cost of inducing effort, which decreases efforts and increases prices. Since all firms’ prices increase, this leads to a change in the expected demand of each firm, and thus in the marginal benefit of inducing effort, which may amplify or mitigate the initial impact. As a consequence, information asymmetry may induce some firms to increase efforts and lower prices. More surprisingly, it may increase both ex post and ex ante social welfare.     

Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters

We provide evidence on the sticky‐information model of Mankiw and Reis ( 2002 ) by examining how often individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts. We draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly Wall Street Journal surveys. We find evidence that forecasters frequently leave forecasts unchanged but revise more often the larger the changes in the information set; additionally, the information sensitivity of revision frequencies increased after 2007. We also find that, on average, forecasters in our sample revise more frequently than found in previous research but that revised forecasts are not consistently more accurate.     

Liar Liar: Experimental Evidence of the Effect of Confirmation-Reports on Dishonesty

We identify the effect of confirmation-reports on dishonesty using data from an experiment where subjects are asked to roll a die and report its outcome using either a self-report or confirmation-report mechanism. We find that relative to self-reports, confirmation-reports have a positive effect on the share of subjects who report honestly. The effect on the magnitude of lies told depends greatly on the accuracy of the prefilled information on the confirmation-report. We argue that these results are driven by changes in the intrinsic costs of lying induced by the confirmation report.     

研发投入对企业绩效的影响——来自2009—2011年中国上市公司的实证证据

论文以2009-2011年中国上市公司为研究样本,从企业盈利能力和发展能力两个方面分析了企业的研发活动对企业绩效的影响。研究发现：（1）我国各行业研发投入普遍不足;（2）企业的研发活动与企业进行研发的当年及随后两年的绩效显著负相关,特别是对企业的盈利能力影响更明显。     

Corruption and Entrepreneurship: Cross-Country Evidence from Formal and Informal Sectors

While the impact of institutional quality on formal entrepreneurial activity has been well documented in the literature, whether and to what extent corruption influences entrepreneurship in the informal sector is less forthcoming. In this article, we analyze the effect of corruption on entrepreneurship in the formal and informal sectors. Using unique cross-country data on formal and informal entrepreneurship, we find that corruption deters entrepreneurship in the formal sector and promotes informal entrepreneurship. These results remain robust even after conducting a series of sensitivity analyses.     

The Impact of Political Influence on Appointees: Evidence from the Small Business Administration Disaster Loan Program

Presidential disaster declarations provide disaster aid through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and are known to be motivated by political factors as well as by need. The extent to which politics influence the Small Business Administration (SBA) disaster declaration decision, made by a presidential appointee, has not been previously measured. We use new data covering 1960–2013 to show that SBA declarations are subject to the same political influences as presidential declarations. Disasters occurring during reelection years, as well as those occurring in electorally important states, are more likely to receive SBA declarations. The effect of politics is stronger in the period prior to the passage of the Stafford Act in 1988, showing that the two types of declarations are substitutes for political purposes.     

Income inequality and educational expenditures on children: Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies

Using the data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2018, we find that rising income inequality causes parents to spend more on children’s education, both in school and out of school. The impact of income inequality on out-of-school expenditures is significant at intensive and extensive margins, especially for study-related tutoring participation. Furthermore, we find some empirical evidence suggesting that in response to rising inequality, mothers spend more time on children’s education and there exists a substitution effect between time and money. Further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the rising education spending: (1) a higher income inequality resulting from rising skill premium strengthens parents’ long-lasting cultural attitude towards education to higher levels, inducing them to spend more on educational investment, and (2) a higher income inequality increases the value of higher education, leading to a stronger demand for better educational opportunities, and then, more intense education competition, forcing parents to invest more in education.     

The Impact of Self‐Perceived Relative Income on Life Satisfaction: Evidence from British Panel Data

This is the first article that uses panel data to investigate the impact of individuals' self‐perceived relative income on life satisfaction. Analyses show that the self‐perceived relative income has a significant impact on life satisfaction, but the impact is asymmetric. The decline in life satisfaction is much more significant due to perceiving a lower relative income in comparison to the rise in life satisfaction because of perceiving a higher relative income. Absolute income is only significantly and positively associated with life satisfaction in the pooled ordinary least squares estimations, but the association is never significantly different from zero when individual fixed effects are controlled. Household savings have a positive but small impact on life satisfaction. Among different financial‐related shocks, people's self‐perceived relative income varies the most due to changes in household net income, total savings, and employment status.     

The Impact of R&D Cooperations and Mergers in Pharmaceuticals on Research Activities and Drugs Offered on the Market

In the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical industry has experienced steep, unprecedented price increases which are frequently attributed to increasing drug development costs. To cope with rocketing development costs, companies engage in Research and Development (R&D) cooperations. We study the impact of R&D cooperations on firms' research activities and drugs offered on the market. Using a comprehensive dataset, we find that R&D cooperations formed at the early stage of the drug development process increase the number of R&D projects and the number of drugs offered on the market. Late stage R&D cooperations, formed among larger firms in technology and product markets, increase firms' research activities, but reduce the number of drugs launched on the product market. Results suggest that large firms cooperating in the late research stage re‐optimize their R&D pipelines and eliminate similarly aligned research projects.     

Consumer Rationing and Cournot Outcomes: Experimental Evidence

We report the results of duopoly market experiments where firms first commit to capacities and then compete in prices. The theoretical literature pertaining to these duopoly models suggests that the way residual demand is rationed is fundamental to the character of equilibrium outcomes when capacity costs are sufficiently low. The experiments test this prediction by varying capacity cost and demand‐rationing schemes. We find that residual demand rationing does not significantly impact the capacity choices of experimental subjects, although it does affect pricing. Regardless of rationing scheme, the Cournot outcome is common with high capacity costs and rare with low capacity costs.     

How the Nature of Product Differentiation Affects Procurement Competition

This article uses computational methods that reveal substantive differences among the equilibrium outcomes from three models of procurement competition: a recently developed model requiring numerical solution and two analytically tractable models that might naturally be considered suitable proxies. The models differ in what sellers know about the buyer's preferences for their products, and they yield substantially different prices and payoffs, different implications for institutional choice, surprising intensities of competition, and qualitatively different comparative statics. These findings caution against using the analytically convenient models when the newer model is empirically appropriate. Reinterpreting the models and results also provides new insights regarding price discrimination in oligopoly.     

The Dynamics of Knowledge Diversity and Economic Growth

How is long run economic growth related to the endogenous diversity of knowledge? We formulate and study a microeconomic model of knowledge creation, through the interactions among a group of heterogeneous research and development (R&D) workers, embedded in a growth model to address this question. The composition of the research work force in terms of knowledge heterogeneity, in addition to its size, matters in determining the production of new knowledge. Moreover, the heterogeneity of the work force is endogenous. Income to these workers accrues as patent income, whereas transmission of newly created knowledge to all such workers occurs due to public transmission of patent information. Whether or not the system reaches the most productive state depends on the strength of the public knowledge transmission technology. Long run economic growth is positively related to both the effectiveness of pairwise R&D worker interaction and to the effectiveness of public knowledge transmission.     

The Growth Barriers of Informal Sector Enterprises: Evidence from India

The present study investigates the growth barriers of informal sector enterprises in India. The empirical analysis is based on the National Sample Survey Organization's unit‐level data for three years, 2000–2001, 2005–6, and 2010–11. The results of the study reveal: proprietary and large firms survive and grow; enterprises managed by women are less likely to decline; inadequate power supply poses a severe growth obstacle to all categories of firms; and proprietary firms encounter capital shortage while large firms are constrained by the non‐availability of raw materials. We do not find evidence of sub‐contracting acting as an enabling factor in firm growth.