The Informational Effects of Tightening Oil and Gas Disclosure Rules

We exploit two regulatory shocks to examine the informational effects of tightening preexisting mandatory disclosure rules. Canadian National Instrument 51-101 in 2003 and the U.S. rule “Modernization of Oil and Gas Reporting” in 2009 introduced quasi-identical amendments which effectively tightened the rules governing oil and gas reserve disclosures in both countries. We document significant changes in firms' reporting outcomes when the new regulations are introduced. We also find that the reserve disclosures filed under the new regulations are more closely associated with stock price changes and with decreases in bid-ask spreads. Our findings are robust to controlling for other confounding factors such as time trends, other information disclosed simultaneously, financial reporting incentives, mispricing, and monitoring efforts.     

Trends in elderly health by cohort: Evidence from China

China has the world's largest number of older persons and is undergoing rapid demographic and economic transitions. Using longitudinal data from seven waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) spanning 1991–2009, this study examines trends by birth cohort for persons born during 1912–54 on several dimensions of elderly health—chronic diseases, physical function limitations, and excess weight. A fixed effects specification was used to distinguish trends in health, physical function, and weight common to all adult age groups and differential trends in these measures according to the person's birth year. The empirical results show that while there was a decline in physical function limitations over time, persons born in later years were more likely to experience a stroke and physical function limitations at older ages than were persons born earlier. A similar pattern occurred for stroke, but not for the other heath indicators. These findings are robust after accounting for sample attrition. The secular changes in health and function could have occurred for several reasons. Among the underlying mechanisms the data allow us to analyze, improved access to medical care and expanded health insurance coverage only had minor effects on observed changes in health and physical function.     

关联规则挖掘在学生成绩分析中的应用

关联规则技术是数据挖掘的最重要的组成部分之一,它用于发现大量数据中项集之间的有意义的关联和相关联系。本文使用关联规则挖掘技术对学生考试成绩进行了分析,挖掘出了具有一定可信度的规则,对指导教学有很重要的意义。     

The role of direct foreign investment in developing east asian countries

Conclusion purpose of this paper has been to provide an overview of the role and extent of foreign investment in East Asian developing countries. We have not been concerned with the costs and benefits of DFL Rather, we have attempted to integrate the scattered and limited information on DFI into recent empirical research on the subject. Many of the issues concerning DFI can be examined only through detailed case studies, and our paper is intended to be complementary to such research. Several conclusions emerge from our study. First, DFI constitutes a substantial but still relatively minor source of the total resource inflows to the region, and a very small proportion of total domestic investment. Secondly, although there have been changes in the“packaging” of capital and technology inflows, these changes do not appear to be as great as is sometimes suggested. Thirdly, there are significant differences in the nature and extent of DFI among the investing countries. Fourthly, the importance of DFI varies markedly within the manufacturing sector, and these variations can be explained, at a general level, with reference to the theory of DFI. Fifthly, the phenomenon of intra-firm trade in manufacturing does not appear to be particularly important in the case of United States investment, but it is significant in the rapidly expanding Japanese investments abroad.     

国际保理业务运行模式及其风险防范研究

近年来,国际保理业务在我国开展得日趋增多,而国内对该项业务的研究仍不健全,不仅缺乏专门针对该项业务的法律和监管规章,而且对相关的国际惯例和规则也不够熟悉,这就使得该项业务在实际操作中存在着重重风险。本文试图对该业务的概念、特点进行论述,分析其在实际运作中存在的风险,并提出防范风险的几点意见。     

产业特征对产业国际化进程的影响——以跨国并购为例

产业国际化对中国三十多年的经济增长和结构变迁产生了举足轻重的作用.由于不同产业的国际化进程存在着很大的差别,这种差别一定程度上导致了产业发展的差异性和产业结构的变化.因此,要深入探讨我国的产业发展和结构的变迁就有必要研究产业特征对产业国际化进程的影响.随着中国国际化进程的不断深入,产业国际化的方式逐渐从单一的出口转向出口与对外直接投资并进.在这一过程中,海外并购逐渐成为对外直接投资的一个重要渠道.通过海外并购,企业可以迅速有效地获得并购目标的品牌、管理技能、研究能力、资源和销售渠道等战略资产,有利于产业竞争力的提升.本文运用2003—2009年中国企业海外并购的数据对36个产业的国际化与其产业特征的关系进行分析.结果表明,产业海外并购的动机和能力与产业收益、产业的技术密集度、产业出口强度和产业规模成显著的正相关关系,而与产业的劳动密集度成显著的负相关关系;同时,出口强度对要素密集度与海外并购的关系有显著的调节作用,而且对两种要素(技术和劳动)的调节作用方向相反.这一结果帮助我们认识中国企业海外并购的产业条件,为产业政策的制定提供参考     

How successful has stabilization policy been in The Netherlands? A neo-Keynesian perspective

Summary A modern Keynesian perspective is offered on the conduct of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy in the Netherlands during the period 1960-1976. A small open macroeconomic model is estimated and simulated under alternative policy rules. Striking features are a strong real balance effect on consumer spending and a significant contribution of exchange rate changes to domestic inflation. Actual policy performs no better as regards the achievement of internal and external balance than simple fixed rules. Both actual policy and fixed rules are dominated by instrument values derived from an explicit optimal stabilization approach. We would like to express our thanks to Bill and Ken Rosen for helpful discussions on estimation and stimulation techniques and to S. Kuipers and H. Verwilst for help in obtaining data. Peter Kenen and S. Kuipers offered detailed comments on an earlier draft.     

数字贸易国际规则进展及中国的对策

数字贸易的兴起和发展不仅改变了全球贸易方式,而且对全球贸易规则体系产生重大冲击。目前,数字贸易规则已经严重滞后于数字经济的发展,甚至其内涵和分类都未正式做出规定。主要经济体对于数字贸易国际规则的立场各不相同,美国和欧洲在跨境数字自由流动和个人隐私保护方面存在重大分歧。当然, WTO框架内、CPTTP、TTIP、TISA等谈判使电子商务基本规则方面取得了一些进展,但是核心议题的谈判陷入僵局。我国应当重视数字经济的发展,从理论研究、顶层设计、国内立法和国际谈判等多个方面进行改革以把握制定符合中国利益诉求的规则的主动权。     

Price‐Setting Behaviour in Lesotho: Stylised Facts from Consumer Retail Prices

This paper documents some of the main features of price‐setting behaviour by retail outlets in Lesotho over the period March 2002 to December 2009. These features include the frequency, size, duration and synchronisation of price changes. In addition, the paper compares price‐setting behaviour in Lesotho and South Africa using a comparable set of products. The findings reveal considerable heterogeneity in price‐setting behaviour across products, outlets, locations and time. Variations in inflation are strongly correlated with the average size of price changes, but rising inflation raises the frequency of price increases and reduces the frequency of price decreases. Price decreases constitute an important determinant of inflation movements. Surprisingly, the frequency and size of price changes in Lesotho differ substantially from those in South Africa, despite the presence of common retail chains and their joint membership in a customs union and common monetary area. These findings open up opportunities for further research into the sources of heterogeneity across products and Lesotho and South Africa in the setting of prices.     

试论财政对公共产品补贴机制中的成本规制——以深圳公交企业为例

成本规划经济学是经济领域的重要分支,近年来我国经济学界对此也已经开展了一些研究,但重要依然放在价格管制方面,对在财政补贴机制下的成本规则鲜有涉及。然而实际走在了理论的前面。深圳、上海等地相继进行了公交企业财政补贴机制下的成本规制试点,对今后其它行业进行成本规划起到良好的示范作用。本文在相关理论探源的基础上通过分析公交成本规制的具体做法提出了相关建议。     

中国碳排放强度变动趋势分析及预测

以二氧化碳为主的温室气体导致全球气候变暖已为世界所公认,而中国的碳排放已经成为国内外研究与讨论的热点问题之一。2009年哥本哈根气候变化会议上,中国向世界做出承诺：到2020年中国二氧化碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%。本文基于1990~2009年中国碳排放强度的历史数据,分析其变动情况并预测2020年是否能完成减排40%~45%的承诺。最后提出了为实现减排任务的承诺提出政策性建议。     

The problem with neoclassical institutional economics: A critique with special reference to the North/Thomas model of pre-1500 Europe

A variety of scholars with widely differing political and disciplinary orientations continue to be fascinated by the prospect of making endogenous variation or changes in institutional structures through the use of a general model. While sympathetic to the appeal of such a research program, I argue in this paper that this methodological objective is, in the following sense, not attainable. At a minimum, some subset of institutional structures or rules needs to be treated as parametric in a general equilibrium model, and granted the same explanatory status traditionally accorded tastes, technologies, and endowments in such models. This proposition is developed through a critical analysis of work representative of this research program: in particular Richard Posner's Economic Analysis of Law (Boston: Little, Brown 1973) and, more especially, Douglass North and Robert Paul Thomas' The Rise of the Western World     

Origins of the financial crisis and requirements for reform

This paper examines the causes of the global financial crisis (focusing in particular on why residential mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps exploded from around 2004) and the policy reform agenda. Arbitrage opportunities in capital rules and the tax system were available, and changes in regulations affecting the leverage of international banks (IBs) played a key role in allowing these opportunities to be exploited on a greater scale. Changes to the Basel rules also actively contributed to the sharp rise in toxic securities. The policy agenda focuses on the need to deal with toxic assets, and for broader reforms to incentive structures, not only of capital rules, but also of corporate governance and banking structures. Specific policy reform recommendations are made. Recent numbers on the capital needs of banks suggest that we are not very far into the process of dealing with the crisis, and lack of transparency in this respect is a major issue in Europe. The longer-run reform process too is not focusing on the ideal building blocks.     

Stability and Growth Pact: issues and lessons from political economy

The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. Following a literature survey, the paper stresses the importance of appropriate incentives for rule compliance in an environment where national fiscal sovereignty precludes the option of centralised enforcement. In addition, the paper stresses the importance of clear and simple rules and in particular the 3% deficit limit in anchoring expectations of fiscal discipline and facilitating public and market monitoring of public finances. This, in turn, strengthens incentive for rule compliance. Moreover, the paper discusses the interests of the most important players in European fiscal rule formation and the importance of choosing the appropriate time for initiating a reform debate.Non-technical summary The EU fiscal framework as laid down in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP, the Pact) aims to preserve fiscal sustainability while allowing room for automatic fiscal stabilisation. These two objectives are also at the heart of the ECB’s interest in the EU fiscal framework because their attainment facilitates monetary policy making in the short and long run.The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. The literature review of the first part reveals that fiscal rules can help solve deficit/debt biases and time inconsistency problems by constraining the behavior of policy makers. But rules can also mitigate biases if they facilitate financial market and public scrutiny of fiscal policies.Thereafter, the paper analyses the institutional environment in which EU fiscal rules are applied. It argues that EU rules reflect a “contract” amongst countries that retain sovereignty on fiscal policies. Enforcement, therefore, ultimately has to be undertaken by the contracting parties. Due to this constraint, the rules can also be characterised as “soft” law (with the 3% limit being nevertheless a much “harder” constraint than the other elements). But this does not necessarily imply that the rules are ineffective (or “dead”). Soft law reduces political transaction costs (by improving transparency and providing a forum for peer pressure). Moreover, if well-designed, such law can boost incentives towards making the rules “self-enforcing”. Evidence speaks in favour of this view: while EU fiscal rules were bent in a number of cases and compliance is undeniably of concern, major and rapid fiscal balance deteriorations have been largely prevented since the start of EMU.The paper also looks at potential trade-offs between “complex” rules where a “fine-tuned” economic rationale may boost acceptance of the rules versus simple and clear rules that allow easy monitoring. It is argued that clarity and simplicity of rules are important especially when formal enforcement is limited (“soft law”) and public monitoring becomes more important. By facilitating public and market monitoring of compliance, clear and simple rules are also more costly to breach.The benefits of “complexity”, and in particular the use of administrative discretion to fine tune the rules to country situations have limits, in particular when it comes to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). It is argued that the 3% deficit limit and the time frame for correcting excessive deficits already provide some room to accommodate economic circumstances. The 3% limit must be clear, simple and strictly implemented to anchor expectations of fiscal discipline and to facilitate public and market monitoring. Further discretion and relaxation would conflict with this need. From this angle, other risks (e.g., efforts not materializing, structural reforms producing surprise costs etc) are hard to justify as a reason for extending deadlines to correct excessive deficits.The preventive arm of the Pact with its requirement of close-to-balance-or-in-surplus budgetary positions defines sound medium term budget positions and adjustment paths. This may be appropriately fine-tuned to address concerns about the Pact’s underlying economic rationale. For example, a symmetric application in good and bad times and less time inconsistency would be desirable.Finally, the timing of a debate on fiscal rules needs to be carefully chosen. In the EU context (and perhaps in other contexts as well), there seems to be much inherent pressure to make the rules more “complex”. Moreover, for the debate initiated in summer 2004, there was also no willingness by countries to give up sovereignty nor was there a sense of urgency to strengthen public finances via tighter rule implementation and enforcement. In such an environment, it is likely that changes to fiscal rules make them more complicated, discretionary and, thereby, potentially less enforceable.The views expressed are those of the author and not of the ECB. Comments by Vitor Gaspar, Mark Hallerberg, Steven Keuning, Jose Marin, Richard Morris, Gilles Noblet, Hedwig Ongena, Luca Onorante, Rolf Strauch, Juergen von Hagen, an anonymous referee and valuable assistance by Anna Foden are much appreciated.     

长三角共同市场规则量表的构建与实证研究

共同市场规则是建立长三角共同市场的基础,且长三角共同市场规则的量表构建是进一步研究共同市场制度安排及协调机制的首要任务。由此,在现有定性研究的基础上,提出长三角共同市场规则构成要素是产权规则、劳资规则、竞争规则、市场交易规则以及政府干预市场的规则;建立各要素的测度量表。以长三角153家中小工业企业为调查样本,对量表效度和信度进行实证研究。结果表明,该量表具有较好的同质性信度和结构效度,从而为长三角共同市场制度安排、协调机制的深化研究奠定了基础。     

Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty

In this paper we examine the prevalence of data, specification, and parameter uncertainty in the formation of simple rules that mimic monetary policymaking decisions. Our approach is to build real-time data sets and simulate a real-time policy-setting environment in which we assume that policy is captured by movements in the actual federal funds rate, and then to assess what sorts of policy rule models and what sorts of data best explain what the Federal Reserve actually did. This approach allows us not only to track the performance of alternative rules over time (hence facilitating a type of model selection among competing rules), but also to more generally assess the importance of the data revision process in the formation of macroeconomic time series models. From the perspective of real-time data, our results suggest that the use of data that are erroneous, in the sense that they were not available at the time decisions could have been made based on forecasts from the rules, can lead to the selection of quantitatively different models. From the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) has actually done (and hence from the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Fed will do in the future), we find that (i) our version of “calibration” is better than naïve estimation, although both are dominated by an approach to rule formation based on the use of adaptive least-squares learning; (ii) rules based on data that are not seasonally adjusted are more reliable than those based on seasonally adjusted data; and (iii) rules based solely on preliminary data do not minimize mean square forecast error risk. In particular, early releases of data can be noisy, and for this reason it is useful to also use data that have been revised when making decisions using policy rules.     

A worldwide system of reference rates

This paper assumes that the major industrial countries (and probably most other major countries) will continue to employ inflation targeting and allow their exchange rates to float, in the sense of accepting no obligation to hold the rate at any particular level. However, it points out that floating may be interpreted in three different ways: as free floating, as permitting ad hoc intervention (with no rules, except possibly that there should be no “manipulation” of the exchange rate), and as managed floating, with the rules and parameters publicly announced. The latter can in turn be accomplished either by prescribing rules relating to changes or levels in the exchange rate. The paper argues in favor of a system of managed floating in which the rules prohibit intervention that would push the exchange rate away from an internationally agreed reference rate. It discusses the problems that would arise in calculating and agreeing a set of reference rates. While these would undoubtedly be serious, the prize is a system that would allow—but not compel—countries to attempt to limit the misalignments of their currency, and that would give the IMF a basis for effective surveillance.     

Corporate Governance Reform and Executive Incentives: Implications for Investments and Risk Taking

We investigate the mechanism through which the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) was associated with changes in corporate investment strategies. We document that the passage of the governance regulations in SOX was followed by a significant decline in pay‐performance sensitivity (Delta) and incentives to take risk (Vega) in CEOs' compensation contracts. These changes in compensation contracts are related to a decline in investments, including research and development expenditures, capital investments and acquisitions. Moreover, consistent with the rules in SOX directly affecting CEOs' incentives to take risk, we document that the decline in investments exceeds the amount that would be expected from changes in compensation packages alone. Finally, we also find evidence that the changes in investments are related to lower operating performances of firms, suggesting that these changes were costly to investors. Our evidence speaks to the debate on how corporate governance regulation interacts with firms' and managers' incentives, and ultimately affects corporate operating and investment strategies. Our study suggests that one indirect cost of such regulations in SOX is the significant reductions in corporate risk‐taking activities in the post‐SOX period. The changes in investments were in part due to changes in executive compensation contracts and in part related to increased executives' personal costs of engaging in risky activities.     

Education expansion,assortative marriage,and income inequality in China

In this paper, we study the pattern of assortative marriage in China since 1990 and its impact on income inequality. The results indicate that men in China are increasingly likely to marry women of similar education levels. We calculate the counterfactual income inequality that would prevail if marriages were randomly matched in terms of education. In 2005, China's overall Gini coefficient of household income per capita would decline from 0.512 to 0.476 if marriages were randomly matched. In urban areas, assortative marriage in education increased the Gini coefficients from 0.321 to 0.338 in 2009. The decomposition exercise shows that the rising returns to education contribute most to the increase in income inequality in urban areas between 1990 and 2009, while the change in marriage assortativeness plays a minor role.     

国外促进科研诚信建设的经验概述及启示

科研诚信是科研主体从事科研活动应遵循的基本原则,是科技事业繁荣发展的重要前提。随着科研不端行为的大量爆发,科研诚信的研究已得到越来越多国家的重视和关注,一些国家在科研活动中纷纷采取措施和出台制度,进一步促进科研诚信建设,防范和惩治科研不端行为。本文立足我国科研诚信建设工作实践,对国外促进科研诚信建设的成功经验进行了研究分析,提出加强我国科研诚信建设的启示。