产业集群内基于时间和距离的技术创新扩散模型研究

以创新和扩散为导向的集群经济效益已成为产业集群的竞争优势所在。基于时间和空间距离因素,构建了产业集群内的技术创新空间扩散模型,应用数据仿真实验,分析了在集群内进行技术创新空间扩散的动态过程,探讨了模型参数变化对技术创新扩散的影响,并着重分析了空间距离对技术创新扩散的影响。结果表明,产业集群内的技术创新扩散是典型的时空统一扩散过程,空间距离会阻碍技术创新的扩散,而且集群内采用技术创新的企业数量与距离因素呈负指数关系,为客观地预测和控制产业集群内时空统一的技术创新扩散过程提供了理论依据。     

信息扩散、产业集聚与区域技术创新绩效——基于2005—2018年区域面板数据的动态分析

为了探索信息扩散、产业集聚与技术创新绩效间的动态影响关系,寻找影响地区经济发展及技术创新驱动的主要因素,使用2005—2018年我国区域面板数据,采用VAR模型、面板数据模型及状态空间模型,对信息扩散、产业集聚与技术创新绩效关系进行分析。研究发现：①产业集聚对技术创新绩效的边际影响力呈倒U形曲线,而信息扩散对技术创新绩效的边际影响力呈递增趋势,信息扩散对产业集聚的边际影响力呈线性增长态势,而技术创新绩效对产业集聚的边际影响力呈倒U形曲线;②不同地区信息扩散与产业集聚对技术创新绩效的影响效应依次为东部地区＞中部地区＞西部地区,且东部和中部地区的信息扩散对技术创新绩效的影响大于产业集聚的影响,西部地区的产业集聚对技术创新绩效的影响大于信息扩散的影响;③不同地区信息扩散与技术创新绩效对产业集聚的影响效应依次为东部地区＞中部地区＞西部地区,且东部地区的技术创新绩效对产业集聚的影响大于信息扩散的影响,中部和西部地区信息扩散对产业集聚的影响大于技术创新绩效的影响。     

企业技术多样性、实质性社会责任信息披露与创新扩散

技术多样性是企业创新能力的重要表征，但现有研究对于技术多样性与创新扩散的关系存在争议。对此，区分相关和不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的异质性影响，并检验实质性社会责任信息披露作为一种信号传递机制对上述关系的调节作用。基于2008—2017年中国研发密集型上市企业数据进行实证分析，结果发现：相关技术多样性能够积极影响创新扩散；不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的影响存在滞后效应；实质性社会责任信息披露正向调节不相关技术多样性与创新扩散的关系。结论丰富了创新扩散理论与实证研究，可为企业创新实践提供决策依据。     

城市科技创新人才政策扩散动力因素时空差异研究

科技创新人才是城市提升创新能力的核心资源,是科技进步的关键要素。科技创新人才政策作为城市争夺人才的工具,被各个城市广泛采纳和使用。以161个城市为研究对象,运用事件史分析方法,探寻城市科技创新人才政策扩散的动力因素并进行时空差异分析。研究发现,城市科技创新人才政策扩散具有双重动力因素：在需求拉动因素中,经济发展水平和财政收入是影响城市科技创新人才政策扩散的主要因素;在压力推动因素中,行政指令、府际竞争和社会舆论显著影响城市科技创新人才政策扩散;在政策扩散平稳增长期,双重动力因素共同作用于政策扩散过程,而在政策扩散加速和减速增长期,城市科技创新人才政策扩散动力因素存在差异;在东、中部地区,压力推动因素占据主导,而在西部地区,双重动力因素都发挥重要作用。     

Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050

Future disruptive, pervasive technologies will have important consequences for industrial structure, economic growth and the environment. Drawing on theories of technological diffusion, industrial evolution and long-term technological change this paper explores the effect of the development and diffusion of two future pervasive technologies on five industrial sectors in three regions during the 21st century in terms of their effect on economic structural change. Through semi-structured interviews with over 100 experts in the two technologies, the paper quantifies the effects of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies on the industrial structure of the EU, USA and China in 2020 and 2050. The paper finds that as a result of the development and diffusion of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, some industries grow whilst others decline and some new ones emerge. The evidence suggests that the effect is different across countries and time; whereas the experts commonly believe that effect of the technologies on the industrial structure of the EU and US is likely to be similar, the effect in China is considered to be less by 2020 but the same as in the EU and US by 2050. This finding has important implications for the location of production, economic growth and energy demand in the future.     

Technological change and path dependence: a co-evolutionary model on a directed graph

In this paper, I model technological change as an evolutionary process of generation and selection of economic activities in a highly path-dependent fashion. There are two key features of our approach. The first is that economic activities are conceived as points of a directed graph and endowed with a corresponding notion of technological distance which determines both the probability of invention of any new activity and the cost of learning it. The second feature is that agents are assumed rational and taken to choose optimally from among the available activities, given the status quo and the associated learning costs. In such a context, we focus on two economies that start off technologically close and evolve side by side with some extent of technological diffusion across them. It is shown that alternative assumptions on the speed of diffusion may have drastically different implications for the evolution of the process. I then argue that this theoretical analysis helps provide some insight on existing empirical evidence; in particular, on the conditions under which relative stagnation or technological catch-up may arise and become consolidated among different economies.     

技术要素集聚对我国区域经济增长差异的影响

回顾了技术要素集聚的基本理论,对技术要素集聚的形成动因与形成条件进行了较为深入的研究。在此基础上,分析了技术要素集聚的相关理论,包括增长极理论、极化效应与扩散效应以及集群理论等。文章的最后针对我国区域经济的差异与技术要素聚集的关系进行了分析。本文的研究将有助人们了解技术要素对于我国区域经济增长差异的影响,可对解决区域经济增长差异的研究提供参考。     

科技创新效率与区域经济韧性交互分析——基于珠三角地区的实证

测算珠三角地区科技创新活动研发和经济产出两阶段效率,探讨两阶段效率在时空上的异质性。构建包含科技创新效率、经济韧性和产业多样化的联立方程组,对三者关系进行分析。结果发现,珠三角地区科技创新研发与经济产出效率在空间上存在显著异质性;科技创新效率有助于增强经济韧性,经济韧性也可以提高科技创新效率;现阶段珠三角地区产业相关多样性通过降低研发阶段效率间接削弱经济韧性,无关多样性则与之相反。研究结论对于珠三角地区乃至全国各地提高科技创新活动效率、推动创新驱动发展战略实施、构建区域经济韧性具有重要意义。     

Technological diffusion: European experience to 1850

This paper considers the diffusion of British technology to the Continent, especially France and Prussia, during the industrial revolution. Particular attention is paid to the various transmission mechanisms and to differences in the speed of diffusion. It is shown that the economic growth of a country and its absorption of foreign technology tends to follow a logistic curve. This suggests that linear and purely economic explanations of technological transmission may be inadequate.     

Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis

Climate policy choices are influenced by the economics literature which analyses the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for climate action. This literature, in turn, rests on a series of choices about: the values and assumptions underlying the economic analysis; the methodologies for treating dynamics, technological change, risk and uncertainty; and the assumed interactions between economic systems, society and the environment, including institutional constraints on climate policy. We identify and discuss such critical issues, pushing at the boundaries of current climate economics research. New thinking in this area is gathering pace in response to the limitations of traditional economic approaches, and their assumptions on economic behaviour, ecological properties, and socio-technical responses. We place a particular emphasis on the role of induced technological change and institutional setups in shaping cost-effective climate action that also promotes economic development and the alleviation of poverty.     

国外新经济理论的研究进展

随着技术变革的深入,新兴技术对经济发展产生的影响更为深入,产生了以知识和创新为核心的新经济,对传统经济理论提出了挑战。特别是金融危机之后,全球经济发展方式发生变革,对新经济理论与方法的研究具有重要现实意义。文章对国外新经济的产生与发展相关理论进行系统梳理与分析、从技术变革与新经济的关系、新经济的理论基础、新经济形态下经济发展方式的变化及其新经济理论的应用领域等方面剖析了国外新经济理论的研究进展,提出未来新经济领域可围绕国家创新体系的战略定位研究、技术变革发展方向的预测方法、技术变革推动经济增长与社会进步的过程分析、新经济理论框架对产业结构影响以及新经济背景对企业发展的影响等方面展开。     

科技创新促进长株潭经济增长的微观机理研究

经济与科技是现代社会的两大杠杆,科技创新与经济增长有着密切的内生联系。本文通过分析科技创新对长株潭经济增长的微观传导机制与促进区域经济持续增长的科技创新机制进行分析,得出结论：科技创新是区域经济高速增长的内生驱动器,加快构建长株潭一体经济快速增长的科技创新孵化体系,加大科技投入、扶持企业自主创新、发挥产业集群的协同优势、增强聚集效应、创造科技创新扩散机制是长株潭经济增长的必然选择。     

公司治理与技术创新关系的实证研究--基于中国省级区域面板数据

采用中国省级面板数据在区域层面对公司治理水平与技术创新之间的关系进行实证研究的结果表明：在控制了地区资本存量、人力资本存量、经济外向性、外商投资、信贷规模以及技术产出效率的差异之后,省级股东治理指数与省级R＆D资本存量之间存在显著的负相关关系,而省级经理层治理指数与省级R＆D技术创新资本积累却有显著的正相关关系。此外,随着地区生产要素投入和生产总值的增加、对外开放程度和技术效率的提升,地区经理层治理的影响不断增强,技术创新促进的效果也更加明显。     

Economics of soft innovation: a review article

This article identifies and articulates the foundations of the theoretical approach of the new book ‘Soft innovation: Economics, product aesthetics and the creative industries’ by Professor Paul Stoneman. This book is likely to open a new research area within the economics of innovation. The source of economic growth and prosperity is technological change and the economics of innovation to date has mainly focused on technological approaches to innovation. However, the development of the technological base of product and process can explain only a part of economic growth as soft innovation represents a relevant additional source of economic development that has received little attention so far. The source of a unified economic approach for soft innovation relies on Lancaster's theory of consumer behaviour coupled with the variety approach, innovation in services and the economics of knowledge. It appears as though industry structures favouring the successive emergence of new variants are characterised by soft innovations.     

Embodied technological change in supplier dominated firms

This paper identifies the role of new capital goods as the main external source of innovation for supplier dominated firms belonging to traditional consumer good industries. After a brief survey on the role of inter-industry technology flows, the results of a field study are presented concerning the amount of technological change embodied in the new machinery acquired during the 1980s by a sample of Italian manufacturing firms producing traditional consumer goods. We show that industries and firms differ in the quality of technological change embodied in (or allowed by) new capital goods, and that such differences depend on industry-specific and firm-specific factors. The former primarily refer to product characteristics, the latter mainly to the age and the affiliation of the firm with an industrial group. The final section contains some policy suggestions for fostering the diffusion of new machinery (embodying technological change) among small firms and traditional industries.     

Technological Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development

Linking technological innovation with high-quality economic development is a complex process. So far, there has been little academic research on the mechanism and internal law of technological innovation related to high quality economic development. After streamlining the research context of technological innovation in the deductive development of economic growth theory, this paper summarizes and extracts the core connotation of high-quality economic development from the concept of high-quality development and at micro, meso and macro dimensions. The internal law of technological innovation promoting high-quality economic development is revealed from six aspects, including total factor productivity, supply of high-quality products and services, industrial structure upgrading, consumption structure upgrading, resources and environment, and promoting social equity. This paper then puts forward policy recommendations for technological innovation promoting high-quality economic development at micro, meso and macro dimensions. Microscopically, organizations including R&D enterprises, universities and research institutes should have their creativity enhanced; mesoscopically, the levels of industrial chain, value chain and regional technological innovation growth pole should be improved; and macroscopically, China should raise its overall technology competitiveness in the world for high-quality economic development driven by technological innovation. This paper proposes six issues on technological innovation related to high-quality development that deserve in-depth discussion, including identifying the standards and boundaries of innovation, capturing the orientation of technological innovation, and raising the rate of transforming technological innovation achievements, etc.     

Technological discontinuities, competition and firm performance

This article discuss in a tentative way what determines the effect of technological discontinuities on the competitive position. of companies within an industry. Three cases of technological change are anahzed: the change from manual to romputer numericalb controlled metal cutting machine tools, the change from stand-alone machine tools to flexible manufacturing systems; and the change from non-cellular to cellular mobile telephony It is argued that the character of technological discontinuity affects market shares, by altering the barriers to entry and mobility, and by being more or less in accordance with the different firms' vision about the future, implying variations in the time needed to detect and accept the new threat or opportunity. A technological discontinuity that includes a new threat or opportunig. A technological discontinuip that involues a new generic technology which substitutes for rather than adds to the previous technology base is seen as being most disruptive. The time actualb available for detecting the need to change and to act is limited by the market growth of the new product (the 'speed of diffusion between users). The faster the difficulties is, therefore diffusion is the greater are the possinbilities that early movers will fain intial advantages. Furthermore, the faster the diffusion is the greater are the possibilities that early movers will build sustanable, volume-related entry and mobility barries.     

Assessing the appropriate grassroots technological innovation for sustainable development

ABSTRACT

Grassroots technological innovation (GRTI) is perceived as a source of sustainable development while addressing local problems and needs of people belonging to the bottom of the economic pyramid. The fostering of sustainable development develops a need for scientific evaluation and subsequent diffusion of GRTI to ameliorate the livelihood of grassroots communities. It is, hence, the purpose of this research to assess the relative performance of different GRTIs with respect to economic, social, and environmental benefits. The empirical data for this study comprised of 32 GRTIs from the three different rural non-farm sectors in the Indian context. Analytical hierarchy process is used for deducing the relative assessment of the selected GRTI against the aforementioned performance criteria. The findings of this study offer imperative insights into the field of technology diffusion and development at the grassroots level and suggest recommendations for sustainable policy formulation.     

Economic Policy for Structural Change

Starting from a conceptualization of structural change as an uneven phenomenon punctuated by technological revolutions that give rise to long-term movements of real and monetary variables, i.e. long waves, this paper puts forth an explanation of radical technical change. Then, drawing upon Post-Keynesian theory, the neo-Schumpeterian school of techno-economic paradigms, and the work of Luigi L. Pasinetti, we suggest guidelines for economic policy to manage structural change and its consequences. While economic policy cannot by itself fully tame the dynamics of structural change, it can ameliorate its disruptive effects, firstly by helping us to manage the stagnation phase of the long wave in order to avoid a deep depression; secondly by preparing the way for a new long-wave and, thirdly, by facilitating the establishment of the institutional conditions for the diffusion of the new technological paradigm. The paper concludes by comparing these suggested policies with those pursued by the dominant western economies after the Second World War. We find that three broad factors—a misdiagnosis of the nature of the crisis that began in the 1970s; a shift in power relations that was strongly unfavorable to the working class; and the rise of neoliberal ideology—led to the adoption of policies that had disastrous social and economic consequences.     

“一带一路”倡议是否推动了我国技术扩散——基于高新技术产业的分析

基于“一带一路”倡议的国际间技术创新合作是推动构建新发展格局的重要举措。基于技术扩散理论，运用2008—2019年我国与全球135个经济体间贸易数据，从高新技术产业出口视角分析我国在“一带一路”倡议前后对东道国的技术扩散效应，并讨论技术邻近性、制度距离等约束因素对技术扩散的影响，进而对理论分析结果进行了验证分析。结果表明：“一带一路”倡议有助于我国高新技术产业的技术扩散，并能通过增加与东道国的技术邻近性强化技术扩散性；但制度距离对该倡议下的技术扩散有限制性作用。研究结论为新发展格局下我国通过“一带一路”倡议拓展国际科技合作空间，通过强化技术创新成果转移、知识扩散推动高水平对外开放提供了有益参考与启示。