The Cost of Living and Terror: Does Consumer Price Volatility Fuel Terrorism?

Do fluctuations of consumer prices prompt terrorist activity? A latent assumption among conflict scholars is that price volatilities for basic consumer goods produce hardships for people that increase popular grievances, damage government legitimacy, and raise the chances for terrorism. In this study, I use a series of regression estimations to test volatility in consumer price indices for energy, housing, and foods as predictors of domestic and transnational terrorism in a cross section of countries. I produce several findings. First, food price fluctuations are significant predictors of multiple measures of terrorism, while energy and housing prices are not. Second, rapid food price increases, not decreases, promote terrorist attacks. Third, the relationship between food price volatility and terrorism is most consistently present in nondemocratic and “hybrid” political regimes and in medium human development countries rather than in democracies or in countries characterized by very high or very low economic development.     

The impact of terrorism on public debt in African countries

Given the increase in the number of terrorist attacks in African countries, a better understanding of the relationship between terrorism, the informal economy and public debt is essential for policymakers. The model is empirically tested for 47 countries during the period 1996–2015. We use ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (ER) and system generalized method of moments (GMM). Three terrorism indicators are used: the uncertain, the domestic, and the transnational. The results confirm that the rise in terrorism and the informal economy lead to an increase in public debt. The results also show that the informal economy magnifies the effect of terrorism on public debt. In addition, the results suggest that a larger informal economy reduces income taxes and therefore increases public debt and the increase in public spending reinforces the effects of terrorism on public debt. The reduction of terrorism should therefore be governments’ primary political objective. Given the detected complementarity between terrorism and the informal economy, the reduction of terrorism would also reduce the size of the informal economy and the public debt. The reduction of terrorism will also minimize the harmful effects of terrorism on public debt through public spending.     

Introduction: Advances in the Study of the Economics of Terrorism

Although the study of the economics of terrorism dates back to 1978, work on this topic was sporadic until 2001. Since the four hijackings on September 11, 2001, there have been many contributions both theoretical and empirical in this area of study. The purpose of this article is twofold: (i) to orient the reader to this area of study, and (ii) to introduce the five articles of this special symposium. These articles address diverse aspects of the economics of terrorism including the demise of terrorist groups, natural disasters and terrorism, cost of living and terrorism, terrorism and stock‐bond returns, and terrorism and piracy.     

An Empirical Study of Suicide Terrorism: A Global Analysis

This paper provides the first venue‐based empirical investigation of the number and lethality of suicide terrorist attacks on a global scale. For 1998–2010, we assemble a data set of 2448 suicide terrorist incidents, drawn from the three main terrorist event databases, i.e., International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and RAND. Our data set distinguishes between domestic and transnational suicide terrorist missions. For the quantity of suicide terrorism, we apply zero‐inflated negative binomial panel (country‐year) estimation for country‐specific variables and negative binomial panel estimation for attack‐specific variables. We also present linear regression panel estimations for the impact of suicide terrorism in terms of casualties per attack. Economic, political, and military variables, at times, differentially influenced the two kinds of suicide terrorism. A host of policy conclusions are drawn from the empirical findings.     

Has Fiscal Federalism Worked for Macroeconomic Purposes？ The Chinese Experience 1994-2003

China＇s central government undertook major tax regime reform in 1994 that was characterized by fiscal federalism. In hindsight, this reform might be viewed as being more emphatic towards the revenue side than the expenditure side. The reform has resulted in certain success both for revenue shifting and inflation fighting purposes. However, the reform and its subsequent follow-ups have not addressed some fundamental issues pertaining to China＇s government finance system, such as the overhauling of the function of government finance and redrawing lines between the central and regional governments with regard to their fiscal responsibilities and duties. Moreover, fiscal federalism might have actually increased fiscal burden on the economy, especially on domestic sectors of the economy. However, coupled with enhanced policy support for China＇ s external development, fiscal federalism might have helped to further accelerate resource shifts toward the external sector, thus resulting in an unprecedented rapid expansion in China＇ s exports since the mid1990s.     

Survey of recent developments

The president reconstituted his cabinet in early December, focusing primarily on the economic team. The highly experienced Boediono was appointed as Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, while Sri Mulyani Indrawati was promoted from chair of the planning agency to become Minister of Finance. The former economics coordinating minister, Aburizal Bakrie, was made Coordinating Minister for Social Affairs—out of the economic limelight, but still with considerable influence. These changes overall have been well received by the markets, as indicated by a considerable strengthening of the rupiah.

The challenges facing the new cabinet remain immense, however. On a range of macroeconomic variables, performance has fallen well short of the government's targets. Output growth declined to just 4.9% p.a. in the December quarter from 6.5% a year earlier. Investment growth has fallen to a very low level, giving rise to concern about the creation of job opportunities. In a booming global economy, exports grew by only 7.4% in the four quarters to December, despite Indonesia's wealth of natural resources. The inflation rate doubled from September to October to almost 18% p.a., although subsequent price increases have been much slower.

The president's anti-corruption campaign continues to generate much attention. The number of corruption cases involving government officials and state enterprise managers brought to the courts continues to increase. Some high-profile cases have resulted in convictions, but others have not. The campaign seems likely also to be extended to judicial reforms, which are clearly crucial, but one urgent issue yet to be tackled directly is the widespread suspicion that funding of major political parties derives largely from abuse of power by government officials.

Numerous floods and landslides early in 2006 resulted in deaths, injuries and considerable physical damage. The frequency of such natural disasters has risen significantly over time, suggesting that governments at all levels need to develop mechanisms to manage them and implement policies to mitigate or prevent them.

Reconstruction progress in Aceh and Nias during 2005 was disappointingly slow. The reconstruction authority predicts dramatic improvement in 2006, but there appears to be a need to clarify the relationships among its three components, and to make some adjustments to its master plan, particularly in relation to land use planning. A reallocation of available funds among major activities, better coordination of implementing organisations, and a rethinking of conflicts between the authority's roles as implementation agency and coordinating agency may all be needed if the ambitious and urgent targets are to be met.     

Antidumping as Strategic Trade Policy under Asymmetric Information

Trade liberalization under GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO) has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection, possibly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping. This article investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework, in which the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. We show that by designing a tariff schedule contingent on firms' cost reports and accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification, the domestic government may not only be able to extract the true cost information, but also succeed in implementing the full‐information, governmental welfare‐maximizing duty. The antidumping framework within GATT/WTO may thus not only offer the means to pursue strategic trade policy disguised as fair trade policy, but it also helps overcome informational problems with regard to correctly determining the optimal strategic trade policy.     

Foreign aid,government behaviour,and fiscal policy in Papua New Guinea

The paper explores a number of long standing questions surrounding how foreign aid has influenced the fiscal behaviour of the PNG Government. This includes whether grant aid has encouraged the PNG government to be less fiscally responsible and accumulate higher levels of foreign debt; whether grant aid has tended to lower the PNG government's domestic revenue raising efforts; whether grant aid has drawn government expenditures away from key service delivery sectors; and whether budget support and project and program aid have had differential effects with respect to any of the foregoing questions. The analysis reveals several important insights regarding the interplay between foreign aid and public sector fiscal behaviour including evidence that grant aid has been an important source of debt reduction during this period. However, grant aid has tended to erode the domestic tax base, which has limited the government's ability to increase aggregate expenditure levels. Evidence is also found that suggests a significant portion of budget support was spent on key development sectors, although it also undermined domestic revenue collection. A number of policy implications follow.     

Natural disasters and high-stakes exam performance: Evidence from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

In this study, the 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan, China serves as a natural experiment for examining the effect of natural disasters on high-stakes exam performance among students who were admitted to four-year colleges between 2005 and 2011. Results of a generalized difference-in-differences model show that, on average, the earthquake reduced a student's National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) standard score by 55% of a standard deviation. The findings have implications for higher education and China's economy, because earthquake exposure lowers a student's probability of being accepted to an elite college, pursuing a major in a high-salary field, and moving to a highly developed urban area for education or employment.     

Terrorism and the Invisible Hook

This article investigates and compares the root causes of transnational terrorism and piracy. In order to accomplish this, we construct a novel data set that catalogues terrorist activity and piracy over the years 1992–2008, paying particular attention to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean since 1991. These data are then merged with other information detailing the economic, political, and security posture of each organization during the same period so that we can examine the relationship between economic prosperity, security, terrorism, and piracy. The main conclusion is that terrorism is mostly unrelated to economic conditions, while piracy responds to both economic payoffs and military deterrents.     

Development Trajectories in the Biotechnology Industry： China versus Leading Countries

The present paper examines China's biotechnology industry from a global perspective and explores how its development trajectory differs from that of countries that are leaders in biotechnology. We draw on diverse data to demonstrate the unique development trajectory of the industry in China. China has benefited through targeted spin‐offs of R&D‐oriented foreign direct investment from developed countries driven by the effects of globalization, government‐encouraged collaboration between the domestic academia and industry, and the input of overseas returnees. Together with an increasing focus of the government and domestic enterprises on independent innovation, such developments have enabled China to catch up with the global biotechnology industry. However, its small scale and low capacity for commercializing innovations under China's current regulations and other barriers pose challenges for the development of the industry. Suggestions for the sustainable development of China's biotechnology industry are presented in this study.     

A dream denied? Mining legislation and the Constitution in Indonesia

Indonesia is blessed with a wealth of natural resources. After wresting power from the Dutch, the leaders of the new republic adopted a constitution that required this national wealth to ‘be controlled and utilised by the State for maximum prosperity of the people’. The dream of turning the country's abundant natural resources into a catalyst for socio-economic development was not pursued actively until 1967, when Soeharto's incoming New Order government introduced policies that supported a significant expansion of the mining industry. The combined effect of the Asian financial crisis and domestic political unrest in 1997–98 interrupted this process. It was anticipated that the introduction of a new mining law in 2009 would re-invigorate the sector. Based on an analysis of five significant elements of the new legislation, this article finds it is unlikely to result in a mining industry that provides maximum benefit to the Indonesian people.     

The competitiveness of China's telecommunications industry before and after China's accession to the WTO

According to China's World Trade Organization (WTO) commitment, its entire domestic market will be more open to the world. China's telecommunications industry is worth special attention because it plays a critical role in enhancing China's overall competitiveness. This study critically reviews and corrects the problems of existing studies on the telecommunications industry, and explains the nature of changes in the competitiveness of China's telecommunications industry before and after China's accession to the WTO by using the diamond model. Based on this analysis, strategic suggestions are provided for both the Chinese government and firms to enhance their competitiveness in the global economy.     

US Foreign policy in the war against terrorism: Challenges,prospects, and ROK's desirable options

Despite the September 11 incident, the US should consider investing more resources in Northeast Asia and Europe rather than focusing all its energy on the terrorists. While consolidating its existing grand strategy of promoting democracy and the market economy, the US may need to draw more support from its major allies to be better prepared against the multi‐spectrum conflicts. As for South Korean options, it is desirable to level up its support for America's war in Afghanistan and also for the long‐term fight against terrorism. In addition, the ROK‐US readiness against potential North Korean terrorism and asymmetric threat should be improved through closer bilateral consultation and coordination.     

从PCT申请和三方专利指标评价中国海外专利申请实力

目前中国的本国人发明专利申请量和授权量同时位居世界首位，成为名副其实的专利生产大国。但中国向海外申请专利的水平和实力还比较薄弱。从反映国家（地区）国际专利申请实力的PCT申请和三方专利这两个指标看，在绝对数量和规模上我国已进入国际前列，但在结构和强度上与主要专利强国还存在较大差距。我国政府将PCT申请量纳入规划文件后，除了推动和激励国内企业积极向海外提交专利申请，还要注意监测PCT申请进入国家阶段的状况，并为企业的海外专利布局提供必要帮助。     

PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION – AN ALTERNATIVE TO CVDS: A COMMENT

This note is a comment to Wang (2008)'s contribution in the SAJE (Vol. 76 (3)). We show that when firms' strategic variables are prices and not quantities, Wang's findings are largely reversed. In particular, the foreign government levies an export tax on its producer as opposed to an export subsidy. Further, both the “optimal tax” and the domestic welfare are non‐monotonic in the degree of product differentiation.     

Natural disasters and the economy: some recent experiences from Southeast Asia

This paper uses recent examples of natural disasters from Southeast Asia to illustrate some important arguments discussed in the literature on natural disasters and the economy. First, the severity of the consequences of disasters depends not only on the natural hazards, but also on societal factors. Second, the effects of the disasters on physical and human capital could go far beyond the directly observable loss of properties and lives. Third, disasters could have positive long‐term consequences if they lead to a change in the total factor productivity of the economy. Fourth, the effects of disasters could spread beyond the country of origin, naturally and economically. Finally, assistance from the government provides implicit insurance that could crowd out private insurance, but the failures of the government in dealing with recent catastrophic disasters may help reduce the extent of this effect.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

The importance of being earners: why women in South Africa need well-paid jobs

The ‘children fare better’ viewpoint claims that children tend to be better fed if their mother (as opposed to father) has sufficient income of her own for food. This paper assesses this claim for South Africa, using data from household surveys. It considers the possibility that this issue is related to domestic violence between husband and wife, and finds an apparent link between wife's earnings, child nutrition and domestic violence. Children's well-being seems more assured if mothers have an adequate income; but there is more risk of inadequate nutrition in households where there is domestic violence against wives.     

The Impact of Multinational Presence on Domestic Investment: Firm‐Level Evidence from South Korea

In order to analyze the effects of foreign multinationals' presence on domestic firms' investment, we use a detailed firm level data set from South Korea for the 2006–2014 period. We combine it with the input‐output tables provided by the Bank of Korea to construct industry level measures of multinational presence in sectors that are horizontally and vertically linked, and estimate dynamic investment equations that are augmented with these foreign presence measures. We find a positive and significant effect of foreign presence in both horizontally and vertically linked industries on domestic firm's investment rate, with larger effects arising from multinational presence in the supplying sectors. Quantitatively, a 2 percentage point increase in the presence of multinational suppliers increases the domestic firm's investment rate by 3.24 percentage points. We also find that this effect is larger for small and medium firms, private firms, nonexporters, firms that are not part of a chaebol, and for firms in external finance dependent industries. A similar 2 percentage point increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors increases the investment rate of domestic suppliers by 0.55 percentage points. This effect is larger if the domestic firm is part of a chaebol, or is in a less external finance dependent industry. Investment increase by 0.53 percentage points following a 2 percentage point increase in horizontal linkages.