中国西部地区家庭效用最大化分析

中国作为一个发展中大国,它所面临的人口问题已经得到了广泛的关注。虽然,在强硬政策下,人口数量能够得到一定控制,但是家庭所拥有的孩子及预期拥有的适度孩子数量究竟是多少,单纯地依靠人口政策可能力度不够,如果家庭的孩子数量影响到家庭的效用及其负效用,那么家庭就会慎重考虑适度孩子的数量。所以说要实现家庭效用最大化,就必定要涉及到家庭中孩子的数量,保证家庭孩子的适度数量,就成为了理性家庭所面临的也是必须要解决的重要问题。因此,本文根据家庭效用最大化的理论,得出家庭收入的高低会对家庭孩子的数量产生一定影响,同时,家庭对人力资本投入档次,也会对家庭决定孩子的数量起到一定作用的结论。从而为以后人口政策导向提供了重要理论依据。     

Equilibrium Earnings Management,Incentive Contracts,and Accounting Standards*

In this paper, we model earnings management as a consequence of the interaction among self‐interested economic agents ‐ namely, the managers, the shareholders, and the regulators. In our model, a manager controls a stochastic production technology and makes periodic accounting reports about his or her performance; an owner chooses a compensation contract to induce desirable managerial inputs and reporting choices by the manager; and a regulatory body selects and enforces accounting standards to achieve certain social objectives. We show that various economic trade‐offs give rise to endogenous earnings management. Specifically, the owner may reduce agency costs by designing a compensation contract that tolerates some earnings management because such a contract allocates the compensation risk more efficiently. The earnings‐management activity produces accounting reports that deviate from those prescribed by accounting standards. Given such reports, the valuation of the firm may be nonlinear and s‐shaped, thereby recognizing the manager's reporting incentives. We also explore policy implications, noting that (1) the regulator may find enforcing a zero‐tolerance policy ‐ no earnings management allowed ‐ economically undesirable; and (2) when selecting the optimal accounting standard, valuation concerns may conflict with stewardship concerns. We conclude that earnings management is better understood in a strategic context that involves various economic trade‐offs.     

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POPULATION GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE TIMING AND NUMBER OF BIRTHS

From 1981 to 2005, the total fertility rate in South Africa has been reduced from an estimated level of 4.6 to 2.8 children per woman. The relative differences in the total fertility rate between population groups, however, remain large. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of the timing of births shows that better‐educated women schedule birth later and have fewer children. The differences in education between population groups account for a substantive part (up to 40%) of the differences in completed fertility between the population groups. Our findings suggest that educational reforms aimed at equal access to education, which benefit African women most, may not only improve the quality of life of women but also, through their impact on fertility behaviour, yield long‐run benefits, as they will have fewer children and more resources to invest in the next generation.     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply,fertility and earnings of married women: the case of registered nurses

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply, fertility, and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population, married registered nurses (RNs). Measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21-64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) averages, from the 1-in-100 Public Use Sample of the 1970 Census of Population in the U.S. The sample was restricted in certain ways: the grouped observations apply only to white RNs who are married with husband present and live in SMSAs of over 250,000 population in 1970 (except Honolulu). The sample is further restricted so that each included observation (representing an SMSA average) is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses. This last restriction reduces the sample of SMSAs to 88 from 124. The coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of .40 at the means. These estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on RNs. RN fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant, but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible. A 10% increase in nurse fertility within an SMSA (number of children ever born/1000 nurses ever married within an SMSA) is associated with a reduction in the SMSA nurse labor supply. The estimated coefficients of the husband-earnings and nonlabor-income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90% level or above. The estimated effect of the nurse's earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant, but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately -.2. The coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant, confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children. Husband's earnings are not a significant determinant of RN fertility. The estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurse's market earnings.     

Corporate Social Responsibility or Payoff Asymmetry? A Study of an Endogenous Timing Game

We revisit an endogenous timing game by introducing corporate social responsibility into firms' payoffs. Previous research investigates an endogenous timing game in a mixed oligopoly, wherein one welfare‐maximizing public firm competes against profit‐maximizing private firms. It shows that the outcome is completely different from that of private oligopoly. In contrast to its result, we find that this change in payoff does not matter as long as the payoffs are symmetric. Our result indicates that asymmetry, and not welfare‐concerning objectives, yields specific results in the literature on mixed oligopoly.     

A Note on the Endogenous Timing of Tariff Policy in the Presence of a Time Lag between Production and Trade Decisions

Using the Hamilton–Slutsky extended endogenous timing game of observable delay framework, we analyze the endogenous timing of tariff policy in the presence of a time lag between production and trade decisions. In particular, focusing on the strategic relationships between an importing country’s government and an exporting monopoly firm, we show that a natural Stackelberg situation exists in which the importing country’s government as first mover determines the tariff rate and the exporting monopoly firm as second mover determines the production level. We also find that the natural Stackelberg equilibrium is Pareto superior to both the Nash and alternative Stackelberg equilibria. This implies that commitment to an ex ante optimal tariff policy before the production decision is made is optimal for the affected parties.     

Occupational status,earnings, and fertility expectations: Development and estimation of a causal model

Summary This paper tests, within the framework of LISREL, the causal structures of occupational status, earnings, and fertility expectations using data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey of currently married and common-law women aged 18–44. Differential occupational status, earnings, and fertility among three groups of wives classified by generation of Canadian residence are also examined. The models incorporate age, education, work experience, and ethnic/English language ability as exogenous determinants of occupational status, earnings, and fertility.The major findings are: (1) lower earnings of third generation wives are strongly related to lower levels of education, work experience, and job status; (2) wives who speak an ethnic language are likely to have lower fertility than comparable wives who do not speak an ethnic language; and (3) generational effects on earnings and fertility are limited to differences in education, work experience, and occupational status.The author is grateful to Dr. Karol J. Krotki, co-director of the Canadian Fertility Study, for permission to analyze the Canadian Fertility Survey data. Special thanks are also due to Ms. Margaret King for her comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Elderly long-term care policy and sandwich caregivers’ time allocation between child-rearing and market labor

Using an overlapping generations model, we present analyses of public long-term care provision effects on fertility and time allocation decisions of sandwich caregivers, those caring for young children and old parents simultaneously. If the public long-term care level runs short of the necessary level, then working children must compensate for the difference by spending their time. Reportedly, about a third of university students’ parents are sandwich caregivers in Japan, although Japan has a Long-Term Care Insurance system, which is a mandatory system with universal coverage. With a rapidly aging population, demand for long-term care is predicted to increase, thereby affecting family time allocation, e.g., fertility decisions, in Japan. Results show that if public long-term care production is costly relative to family care provision, then increases in public care provision lower the fertility rate. If labor productivity in the public long-term care sector improves, then it increases the fertility rate by freeing caregivers’ time from family care provision. It will also increase social welfare. The effects on labor employment in the goods production sector are generally ambiguous because the increased public care provision requires more labor.     

Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan

This study quantified the effects of immigration policies in an aging and depopulating Japan. Under a constant total number of immigrants, it focused on the optimal period for an immigration policy that maximized per-capita utility. Simulation results, based on an extended lifecycle simulation model with endogenous fertility, showed that a longer period immigration policy increased the future population and enhanced long-run economic growth. Conversely, a shorter period immigration policy enhanced economic growth in earlier years but less so in the long run. This study found that an optimal duration for an immigration policy, under the standard parameter settings for Japan, was nine years; this finding was derived through reconciling the merits and demerits between shorter and longer period immigration policies.     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

Fertility and old-age labor supply in aging China

This paper studies the fertility and old-age labor supply decisions of Chinese households along with the relaxation of fertility control and a rise in life expectancy. We first build an overlapping-generations model, where agents make endogenous fertility and old-age labor supply decisions in the presence of fertility constraint. In our model, children serve as an alternative saving technology since they provide intra-family transfer for their old-age parents. Our analytical results suggest that the impact of rising life expectancy on fertility depends on whether children are more like consumption goods or saving vehicles. Relaxing fertility control would induce more leisure in the old age, while a rise in life expectancy would lead to more old-age labor supply. We then calibrate the model to Chinese economy and find that a rise in life expectancy would discourage fertility as intra-family transfer becomes less important. In addition, the implementation of two-children policy rather than full relaxation of fertility control, a rise in child-rearing cost, and an expansion of social security would also reduce fertility, partly offsetting the effects of relaxing one-child policy.     

Culture,fertility and the socioeconomic status of women

This paper aims to study the effect of culture on economic outcomes by focusing on one unique fertility norm in China: the belief of continuing the family line. Using the national representative household survey data, we successively examine the fertility behavior and socioeconomic status of women in regions of China with varying beliefs regarding continuing the family line. We show that this local fertility norm has positive and significant effects on the fertility behavior, including the number of births; sex selection biased towards boys; and the education, employment status, and income of women. We also show that the gender gaps in education, labor supply, and income are significantly larger in regions where the belief of continuing the family line is stronger. Our results are robust to the control for reverse causality issue by measuring the local fertility norm using the beliefs of the older generation.     

Childbearing and the distribution of the reservation price of fertility: The case of the Korean baby bonus program

We study the fertility effects of a Korean pro-natalist policy. We show that using the same assumptions and the same binary-choice models used in this literature, and we can estimate the entire unconditional distribution of the reservation price of fertility, which is the minimal compensation an agent must receive to induce her to have a (or an additional) child. Our estimates show that the program’s benefit level and budget would have to be orders of magnitude (about 15 times) larger for the program to bring South Korea back to desired levels of fertility. We also found that over 74% of the program’s expenditures are associated with infra-marginal births – these are births that would have occurred even in the absence of the financial incentive. We show that this is likely not a unique characteristic of the Korean pro-natalist policy but instead a problem of most programs of this nature.     

混合寡头内生行动顺序问题研究：一个综述

本文对关于混合寡头中内生行动顺序问题的英文文献进行一个综述。混合寡头分成三种类型：由公有企业和本国私有企业组成的类型,由公有企业和外国私有企业组成的类型,由公有企业、本国私有企业和外国私有企业组成的类型,逐类综述在企业生产同质产品并进行产量竞争的假定下研究混合寡头内生行动顺序的文献,然后分析在其它假定下的文献。本综述得到的基本结论为：1、在企业生产同质产品并进行数量竞争的假定下,公有企业与本国私有企业同时行动不可能成为均衡;2、混合寡头内生行动顺序依赖于不同的模型设定。文章最后指出了基本结论对未来的研究的启示。     

ON THE OPTIMAL QUANTITY OF PUBLIC GOODS AND RELATED ISSUES

This paper seeks to reopen a discussion on what the profession has considered settled and closed, namely the issue of the optimal quantity of a pure public good. We argue that determination of the optimal quantity by the intersection of the collective willingness to pay curve and the supply curve is inappropriate because it exaggerates the aggregate demand for the public good, thus giving rise to misleading supply decisions. The reason lies in the basic properties of pure public goods, in particular that of non‐rival consumption (joint supply). The paper submits that the optimal quantity of a public good is the largest quantity demanded by any single consumer (individually or as a collective). The individual demand curves are required in the analysis only for the purposes of determining the optimal benefit taxes and an equitable cost sharing formula. We show that under such a formula, based on benefit shares, the budget will be balanced, and since the tax burden is smaller than the benefits, less resentment to taxation could be anticipated under this framework.     

Gender, Time Use, and Public Policy over the Life Cycle

In this paper we compare gender differences in the allocationof time to market work, domestic work, child care, and leisureover the life cycle. Time-use profiles for these activity categoriesare constructed on survey data for three countries: Australia,the UK, and Germany. We discuss the extent to which gender differencesand life-cycle variation in time use can be explained by publicpolicy, focusing on the tax treatment of the female partnerand on access to high-quality, affordable child care. Profilesof time use, earnings, and taxes are compared over the lifecycle defined on age as well as on phases that represent thekey transitions in the life cycle of a typical household. Ourcontention is that, given the decision to have children, life-cycletime use and consumption decisions of households are determinedby them and by public policy. Before children arrive, the adultmembers of the household have high labour supplies and plentyof leisure. The presence of pre-school children, in combinationwith the tax treatment of the second earner's income and thecost of bought-in child care, dramatically change the patternof time use, leading to large falls in female labour supply.We also highlight the fact that, in the three countries we study,female labour supply exhibits a very high degree of heterogeneityafter the arrival of children, and we show that this has importantimplications for public policy. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: pfapps{at}law.usyd.edu.au; ray.rees{at}lrz.uni-muenchen.de     

Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?*

This study investigates security analysts' reactions to public management guidance and assesses whether managers successfully guide analysts toward beatable earnings targets. We use a panel data set between 1995 and 2001 to examine the fiscal‐quarter‐specific determinants of management guidance and the timing, extent, and outcomes of analysts' reactions to this guidance. We find that management guidance is more likely when analysts' initial forecasts are optimistic, and, after controlling for the level of this optimism, when analysts' forecast dispersion is low. Analysts quickly react to management guidance and are more likely to issue final meetable or beatable earnings targets when management provides public guidance. Our evidence suggests that public management guidance plays an important role in leading analysts toward achievable earnings targets.     

卢锋:应加快调整“一胎政策”

北京大学国家发展研究院副院长卢锋日前撰文指出,中国应当加快调整一胎生育管制政策。卢锋说,随着多年来中国低生育人口形势延续和发展,中国学界和公众讨论建言调整一胎生育管制政策的呼声日高。而中国官方政策也发生微妙变化。例如2006年年底中国决策层发布《关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》指出,"面对新的形势和任务,既要坚持多年来行之有效的基本经验,又要解放思想、实事求是、与     

Earnings,Book Values,and Dividends in a Stewardship Setting with Moral Hazard*

The paper addresses the following question: in a multiple-date agency setting, under what conditions will the dividend policy be of no incentive relevancy? It is shown that if the accounting data—earnings, book values, and dividends — satisfy standard owners' equity accounting constructs, and if these indicate that paying dividends is a zero NPV activity, then dividend policy incentive irrelevancy applies. The basic idea is to ensure that the (history of) abnormal (residual) earnings summarize the relevant information and the solution to the incentive problem. The paper also compares classical value irrelevancy with incentive irrelevancy, and the analysis shows that conditions for incentive irrelevancy are more stringent.