A sensitivity analysis on optimal economic growth

A model of capital accumulation is considered and the relation between the optimal path and the initial capital stock is analyzed. Mathematically speaking, the model is a convex model of infinite horizon in continuous time. The existence of optimal paths of capital accumulation is proved. By using the continuity of the value function, it is proved that the optimal path of capital accumulation is a continuous function of the initial capital stock. The analysis is so general that neither the smoothness of the model nor the interiority of the optimal path are made.     

Implicitly additive utility and the nature of optimal economic growth

The solution of an optimization problem frequently depends only on the constraint set and on the indifference set through the optimum. This observation is spelled out and applied to the problem of optimal economic growth. The validity of the turnpike property of optimal growth plans is investigated when the intertemporal utility function is not additive, but has the property that each of its indifference sets is also an indifference set for some other utility function which is additive and has a constant rate of discount. A characterization is provided for such utility functions, which are called implicitly additive.     

Nonlinear optimal control of coupled time-delayed models of economic growth

Decisions in Economics and Finance - The article proposes a novel nonlinear optimal control method for the dynamics of coupled time-delayed models of economic growth. Distributed and interacting...     

The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.     

Educational growth and economic equality

Quality & Quantity -     

Financial crises and economic growth

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky due to randomness in the firms’ production. Financial crises occur when output and liquid capital are insufficient to meet required loan payments and systemic defaults occur. In this model, a financial crisis caused by systemic defaults can shift the economy from an equilibrium with positive borrowing/lending to an equilibrium with no borrowing/lending. In this no-lending equilibrium, neither traditional fiscal or monetary policy tools are effective in increasing output. Fiscal and monetary policy can only increase the likelihood of the equilibrium evolving to a borrowing/lending equilibrium.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

Political institutions and economic growth

We analyze the impact of micro-founded political institutions on economic growth in an overlapping-generations economy, where individuals differ in preferences over a public good (as well as in age). Labour- and capital taxes finance the public good and a public input. The benchmark institution is a parliament, where all decisions are taken. Party entry, parliamentary composition, coalition formation, and bargaining are endogenous. We compare this constitution to delegation of decisionmaking, where a spending minister (elected in parliament or appointed by the largest party). Delegation of decisionmaking tends to yield lower growth, mainly due to the occurrence of production inefficiency.     

Energy consumption and economic growth

The present paper discusses methods originally proposed by Adams and Miovic in 1968 (then refined and used later by many other authors) for calculating the output elasticity of useful energy consumption (?). We first show that this methodological approach is quite dubious. Better alternative methods of estimation are then proposed. We also stress that, since the marginal rate of interfuel substitution depends on the GDP functional form, the simulataneous use of several functional forms of GDP in energy studies leads obviously to misleading interpretations. Using thermal efficiency coefficients and OECD countries figures for the 1959–73 period, we finally found that ? did steadily fall from high values to values which are still higher than one.     

四川省城市化与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章在回顾城市化与经济增长关系的基础上,对四川省1978—2007年城市化与经济增长的时间数列进行了格兰杰因果关系验证等实证计量研究。结果显示,改革开放以来,四川省经济增长对城市化的作用相对较强,但是,城市化的发展对经济增长的促进作用不是明显。有必要加快四川省城市化发展水平,在分析四川省城市化发展出现的问题的基础上,提出加快四川省城市化的对策和办法。     

Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia

This paper looks at the relationship between output variability and economic growth in Australia using the ARCH-M model. Quarterly data for growth rates of industrial production and of GDP are used for the analyses. However, the growth of GDP does not show any ARCH effects. The variability is found to be significantly negatively related to the growth rate of industrial production. Unlike Caporale and McKiernan (1998), our empirical results do not support Black's (1987) hypothesis, which is that there is a positive relationship between output variability and economic growth. Our results support the Keynesian position. The authors thank the anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link

This paper shows that oil shocks impact economic growth primarily through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data, we find a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of economic growth. We then develop a new measure of oil shocks and show that it is superior to existing measures; it indicates that the conditional variance of growth increases in response to an indicator of the local maximum oil price exceedance. The empirical results uncover a large pronounced asymmetric response of the growth volatility to oil price changes. The uncertainty about future growth is considerably lower than with a benchmark AR(1) model when no oil shocks are present.     

Entrepreneurship,innovation and economic growth

The linkages among entrepreneurship, creativity, innovation and economic growth are only vaguely understood presently. This paper is an attempt to improve that understanding. The first step in establishing the linkages requires the formulation of knowledge about the psychological make-up of entrepreneurs. These questions are pertinent: What motivates humans to become entrepreneurs? Are entrepreneurs “rational economic men”? How important are monetary rewards to entrepreneurial creativity ? The second step requires information about how the human brain functions. The brain is bi-hemispheric and both sides of the brain play an important role in human decision-making. Nevertheless, we have a cultural bias in favor of the functions performed by the brain's left side. The third step requires an understanding of the process of creation and innovation. Several stages in this process have been identified. The stages of preparation, incubation, and illumination involve the brain's right hemisphere while the verification stage involves the left hemisphere. The final step integrates the first three. We assume that entrepreneurship is an essential determinant of economic growth, that the entrepreneurial function involves creation and innovation, and that entrepreneurship can be taught. This article is intended to provoke thinking and research incorporating new insights from several disciplines. These insights appear to bear more on entrepreneurship than is generally acknowledged.     

Technology-based design and sustainable economic growth

This paper seeks to analyze how design creates economic value. The literature on knowledge-based economic development has primarily focused on innovation as the analytical lens, whereas design is the original action that leads to innovation. Despite the fundamental importance of design, existing design research has offered few insights and little guidance for national strategies due to the lack of focus on and analysis of design in an economic context. This paper addresses such gaps by linking design research and economic development theory. We first elaborate on the relationship among design, invention and innovation, describing the necessity of design activity for invention and innovation. Our analysis of the fundamental characteristics of design across contexts sheds light on the strategic importance of the accumulative nature of technology-based design for sustaining economic growth. Through the lens of technology-based design, we further quantitatively compare Singapore and three similarly-sized countries (South Korea, Finland and Taiwan). Based upon interview data, we also qualitatively examine Singapore's national strategy focusing on design. The quantitative and qualitative results align well with the Singaporean government's use of design as a strategic lever to pursue innovation-driven economic growth, and also reveal its achievements and shortfalls which indicate possible directions for strategic adjustment.     

On exchange rates and economic growth

Extending Ireland's (1994) model, this paper analyzes an international economy where cash or credit can be used for payment. Foreign trade credit is more costly than its domestic analog. A depreciation of the real exchange rate is associated with an external surplus and a reduced share of imports purchased with credit. Economic growth slows when foreign trade credit becomes the predominant means of payment for international transactions. A country with high inflation exports its Tobin effect and thus temporarily increases world growth.     

The model based on the matrix of economic growth

This paper is concerned with some aspects of direct and indirect growth rates of sectors and with the model based on the matrix of economic growth. The purpose of this consideration is to determine through indirect growth rates the growth structure of economy and to construct the model which may be used for the planning goals. In other words, by means of the matrix of growth or the model which is based on it we can estimate the future development of the economy. This can be done under different assumptions no matter whether relations are transfered from the past into the future or whether various relations change in future periods on the basis of streamlined elements of the plan. Hence, it can be determined either from the assumption that past relations will be kept approximately in the same frames, or that they will change in the future. In each case all the changes can be described through direct and indirect growth rates.     

The demographic effects of income redistribution and accelerated economic growth revisited

The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well-founded. The potential for reducing natality in the richer nations by means of income redistribution may be overstated by Winegarden's results.     

城乡收入差距经济分析与治本之策

我国改革开放的26年是社会财富高度增长的26年,也是社会利益高度多元化的26年。为追求经济稳定发展,建设和谐社会,必须从根本上解决城乡收入差距扩大问题。本文对我国城乡居民生活水平的变化趋势和城乡收入差距的现状进行了比较详细的实证分析,在此基础之上提出了收入差距的适度范围,并探讨解决"三农"问题的治本之策。