对商业银行的信贷风险控制的探讨

信贷风险作为我国商业银行的主要风险,目前我国商业银行的信贷风险管理水平不高,传统的信贷风险管理也缺乏系统性,以致于我国商业银行信贷资产质量普遍较差,严重影响了银行的收益。本文从识别和确定信贷风险并且建立有效的预警机制、以及时商业银行信贷风险的规避、等一系列方面提出了商业银行信贷风险控制的具体措施,以促进商业银行切实防范措施和化解信贷风险。     

农村信用社控制信贷风险的对策研究

信贷风险是农村信用社所面临的主要风险之一,就潜在损失的程度而言,信贷风险是农村信用社的首要风险,农村信用社信贷风险控制水平低下是信贷风险产生的主要原因,因此如何提高信贷风险控制水平是国内农村信用社面临的重大课题。本文笔者结合多年工作经验,从构建科学的信贷风险控制文化、构建按行业分类的信贷业务风险评估体系、构建全方位的信贷风险控制体系等角度出发,提出了农村信用社控制信贷风险的对策。     

农村信用社控制信贷风险的对策研究

信贷风险是农村信用社所面临的主要风险之一,就潜在损失的程度而言,信贷风险是农村信用社的首要风险,农村信用社信贷风险控制水平低下是信贷风险产生的主要原因,因此如何提高信贷风险控制水平是国内农村信用社面临的重大课题。本文笔者结合多年工作经验,从构建科学的信贷风险控制文化、构建按行业分类的信贷业务风险评估体系、构建全方位的信贷风险控制体系等角度出发,提出了农村信用社控制信贷风险的对策。     

后危机时代商业银行的信贷风险管理

信贷业务是我国商业银行的主要收益来源,信贷风险也是商业银行面临的主要风险。席卷全球的次贷危机虽然已经过去,但是宏观经济政策的调整使商业银行面临着新的信贷风险,商业银行务必要强化信贷风险管理。本文分析了我国商业银行信贷风险管理中存在的问题,并提出了商业银行加强信贷风险控制的若干对策。     

我国商业银行信贷风险管理存在的问题及对策

信贷风险管理是商业银行风险管理的核心内容,在国内外经济形势复杂多变的背景下,信贷风险管理问题日益凸显。本文分析了我国商业银行信贷风险的主要表现形式及其成因,提出完善商业银行信贷风险管理的对策。     

提高我国商业银行信贷风险管理水平的对策

分析了我国银行业信贷风险的各方面历史成因和在后WTO保护期可能面临的风险成因,提出了如何构建信贷风险管理体系的设想。以中国农业银行的信贷风险管理体系为例,论证了当前在国内运用全面风险管理理念构建风险管理体系,防范与化解信贷风险的实效性。     

宏微观分析相结合的信贷风险预测模型研究

我国现有的信贷风险评估方法存在宏微观分析结合不紧密以及风险评估不全面的问题.本文在基于财务分析的企业风险评估模型基础上,构建了宏微观分析相结合的信贷风险预测模型.建模的主要工作包括:选择反映行业信贷风险的指标与反映宏观经济变化的指标;确定反映宏观经济变化的指标与反映行业信贷风险指标之间的函数关系;依据以上的关联函数和宏观经济指标预测值,计算行业信贷风险调整系数;据此对属于该行业的企业即期信贷风险指标进行调整,对企业的信贷风险进行前瞻性预测.作者还利用证券市场数据检验了上述模型的准确性,结果表明模型可以有效预测企业未来的信贷风险.     

现行信贷风险管理的缺陷分析与矫正对策

近几年来,农业银行在加强信贷风险管理上做了大量工作,信贷风险管理的制度建设和工作实践均取得了显著成效。然而,由于我国市场社会信用体系不健全、市场主体融资渠道单一,加之农业银行自身还未真正形成有效的信贷风险管理工具,各分支机构执行力和员工从业胄苣力也有待进一步提高,建立和完善有效的信贷风险管理体系任重道远。因此,本文试从农业银行内部信贷风险管理控制的缺陷分析着手,对强化信贷风险控制提出一些粗浅的改进建议。     

中小城市商业银行信贷风险管理应对策略——以保定市银行业金融机构为例

近年来,随着我国经济持续稳步发展,我国金融市场发展速度不断加快.银行业金融机构从机构设置、从业人员到经营范围、服务对象都有了很大改观,而信贷业务依然是商业银行的主要利润来源,信贷风险也是商业银行面临的主要风险.随着银行业金融机构的持续快速发展,对金融机构信贷风险管理提出了严峻的挑战,如何提高信贷风险管理能力是商业银行面临的重要课题.本文分析了中小城市商业银行面临的信贷风险及加强信贷风险管理的必要性,并从信贷文化建设、内控制度建设、风险等级评定、信贷风险监测与监督等方面提出了信贷风险管理的应对策略.     

试析新形势下基层商业银行信贷风险管理策略

在我国经济不断发展的前提下,基层商业银行信贷风险呈现出了一些新的特征,这给基层商业银行信贷风险管理工作带来了挑战。基层商业银行怎样积极的应对当前的形势,及时的调整战略,加强信贷风险管理,提高信贷风险管理的有效性,成为了当前急需解决的问题。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.