债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应

研究目标：中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法：基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现：中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应：当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新：引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值：对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。     

Investment and capital structure decisions with strategic debt service under asymmetric information

This paper examines the agency problem due to manager-shareholder conflicts in a real option framework by incorporating strategic debt service. We show that when the equityholders’ bargaining power is weak, the optimal coupon is larger and the manager overinvests the project relative to the case without renegotiation, while the results are totally opposite when the bargaining power is strong. An increase in equityholders’ bargaining power reduces the manager’s value and the total social value. Especially, the social value can be improved by debt renegotiation when the systematic risk is high, which provides an explanation why Chinese government encourage the market-oriented debt restructuring.     

A sectoral analysis of the financial instability hypothesis

Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) is applied to various North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups, and it is found that some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others. Minsky categorized firms based on the relationship between cash flow and debt service requirements: hedge finance units, whose operating revenues are adequate to service current interest and principal on their debt; speculative finance units, which can meet interest payments but cannot pay down principal; and Ponzi finance units, which cannot meet current interest payments. The FIH is related to, as well as supportive of, Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory, because interest rates are negatively correlated with the proportion and market value of speculative firms in several sectors.     

Soaring corporate debt is a risk to global growth

• ▀ Corporate borrowing is accelerating as a result of the coronavirus crisis. In part, this is a healthy development as firms look to ride out a period of low or even zero sales. But it also brings potential risks to growth, especially in the longer term, including via lengthy balance sheet restructuring that hurts investment and productivity growth.
• ▀ In the advanced economies, we estimate the aggregate corporate debt/GDP ratio could rise as much as 10ppts in 2020, to 95% of GDP - well above the 2009 peak. Debt service ratios may also rise into risky territory despite low interest rates. Risks look especially elevated in France and Canada.
• ▀ Evidence for both advanced and emerging economies suggests high corporate debt levels can damage growth. Highly indebted firms tend to invest less in both the near and medium terms, and some estimates suggest the rise in aggregate debt this year could cut GDP growth by up to 0.2% per year.
• ▀ The coronavirus crisis may also crystallise some pre-existing risks in corporate debt. Despite government assistance, defaults by low-rated firms have started to rise and commercial real estate prices are falling.
• ▀ Sectoral concentrations of risk may also be intensified and new ones created in industries hit hard by the virus like energy and consumer discretionary sectors.
• ▀ Emerging market corporate debt is also on the rise - sharply in some cases. In some economies, this mostly reflects exchange rate effects. But negative balance sheet effects of this kind are also a risk to growth.

     

“十二五”时期北京市区县政府社会保障公共服务标准探讨

政府社会保障公共服务标准的制定和实施,有利于实现政府社会保障服务的规范化、透明化,开展政府社会保障服务的评估和比较,并促进社会保障服务的均等化。根据科学性、可比性、系统性、简洁性和可操作性等原则,本文选取了社会救助、社会保险、社会福利等方面的指标,构建了地方政府社会保障公共服务指标体系,并根据国际比较、国内比较和可及性等原则,对"十二五"时期北京市区县社会保障公共服务标准进行了初步探讨。     

城市公共服务设施空间分布分异调查——以广州市为例

社会经济体制综合转型以来,市场机制逐步取代行政命令成为我国城市公共服务设施配置的主体方式,其空间分布形态也由空间均衡趋向社会分异。以广州市为例,基于3954份有效问卷和城市公共服务设施专项调查数据,对城市公共服务设施的空间分布进行了社会生态学分析。研究结果表明,广州城市公共服务设施空间分布的社会分异特征显著,中心城区116个街镇单元可以划分为6个类型,不同阶层社会群体居住单元的公共服务设施配套及可达性存在显著差异;受旧城区社会经济持续繁荣及历史沉积效应影响,社区地位与城市公共服务设施供给及可达性之间呈非完全一致性,体现出类似西方国家城市公共资源配置过程中的"城市生态法则"的作用特征。     

Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality

What are the welfare effects of government debt? In particular, what are the welfare consequences of government debt reductions? We answer these questions with the help of an incomplete markets economy with production. Households are subject to uninsurable income shocks. We make several contributions. First, by targeting the skewed wealth and earnings distribution of the US economy in our calibration, we identify inequality as the major driver of the welfare effects of public debt/GDP changes. Second, we show that in order to fully gauge the welfare consequences and the political feasibility of government debt changes, it is crucial to consider the transitional dynamics between stationary equilibria. Our results therefore have important implications for the design of debt reduction policies. Since the skewed wealth distribution generates a large fraction of borrowing-constrained households, a public debt reduction should be non-linear, such that the tax burden is postponed into the future.     

地方债务视角下西南地区四省市财政可持续性研究——基于面板数据的协整检验

随着经济社会的快速发展,我国地方政府债务规模也增长较快,引起了社会对地方债务风险及财政可持续性的担忧。为分析西南地区主要省市地方政府债务对其财政运行的影响,选取相关指标进行横向对比,并对西南地区各省市财政运行的面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明：西南地区各省市财政运行存在弱的可持续性,虽然地方债还未对财政运行造成显著不利影响,但弱的财政可持续性表明该区域财政运行存在一定风险,政府应注意防范,同时,应加强对新增债务和存量债务的控制和管理,提升财政运行的效率,改善财政运行透明度,建立科学的财政管理体制,提高财政风险识别和管理能力等,以实现财政的可持续发展。     

中小企业债务融资与公司价值关系研究——基于中小板上市公司的实证研究

中小企业在我国经济社会发展中具有重要的战略地位,但是融资难问题却一直制约着中小企业的发展。文章以2010年到2012年我国中小企业板上市公司的数据为研究依据,进行实证检验,分析我国中小企业债务融资与企业价值的关系。研究发现,中小企业的债务融资与企业价值有着显著的正相关关系,尤其是银行借款融资对企业价值起到了积极的作用。因此,我国中小企业应该增加债务融资,尤其是增加银行借款融资的比重。所以,解决中小企业融资难、贷款难的问题刻不容缓。这篇文章旨在为我国中小企业进行融资以及政府的扶持提供具有一定参考价值的数据支持。     

Diaries from the front line—Formal supervision and job quality among social care workers during austerity

Focusing on social care workers in public, private and voluntary sectors, this article contributes to research on the impact of austerity on public service human resource management (HRM). The article uses an innovative diary method to highlight the importance of intrinsic elements of job quality such as supervision practice in mitigating degradation in extrinsic elements as austerity dismantles public service HRM. The article also reports that supervision has itself come under pressure due to resource shortages. The results regarding sub‐sector differences have implications for policy‐makers and practitioners in terms of rebuilding the standard employment relationship in social care so that they are more sensitive to differences across private, public and voluntary sectors.     

Government debt,learning and the term structure

Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically significant manner. The maturity composition of debt is also found to matter: innovations in holdings of long-term debt affect the term structure, while increases in short-term debt affect inflation expectations. These effects of changes in holdings of debt on the yield curve can be derived in a general equilibrium model in which the government issues exponentially-maturing riskless debt, financed by lump-sum taxes, and the optimizing agents are adaptive learners. On calibrating the average maturity of debt in the model to match that of U.S. Treasury debt since the 1980s, I find that positive innovations in government debt lead to increases in asset yields. This is because agents do not learn the principle of Ricardian equivalence exactly, and perceive increases in holdings of government bonds as a rise in their net wealth. Imposing rational expectations on the agents eliminates this channel, and changes in holdings of government debt have no effect on yields. The learning model also implies that as the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and the average maturity of debt becomes longer, the agents become less likely to learn that Ricardian equivalence holds.     

地方政府融资平台存在缘由与规制思路

随着政府融资平台筹资的扩大,政府性债务余额也在不断积累,地方政府融资平台的问题已经越来越多的摆到了各级政府领导的案头上,以举债促发展、保民生似乎已经成为各级政府运行的模式。一面是堆积如山的累债、积债,一面是各级政府的政绩工程、民心工程建设仍在如火如荼的展开。我们通过对部分地方政府投融资平台运行状况进行调研,分析目前地方政府融资平台的起因,探讨地方政府融资平台的建设思路,提出地方政府融资平台的规制建议。     

Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world

This paper investigates the relationship between democracy and public debt in the Arab world over the period 2002–2013. The results show strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt. This means that democratization is associated with lower debt only when a certain level of democracy is reached. In an attempt to explain these findings, we assume that the effect of democracy on public debt operates mainly through its impact on government spending and government revenue. Our results show that the inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt stems from the inverted U-shaped democracy-government spending path and the U-shaped democracy-government revenue pattern. This implies that, at the earlier stages of democratization, democracy is associated with an increase in government spending and a decrease in government revenue, which stimulates public debt. However, beyond a certain level of democracy, further democratization reduces government spending and enhances government revenue, leading to lower levels of public debt. Hence, achieving some level of democracy is a key prerequisite to improve the effectiveness of public spending, enhance tax compliance, and thereby control public debt.     

地方政府债务风险对金融压力的溢出效应——兼论重大突发事件冲击的影响

本文基于2007年1月至2020年12月的月度数据,使用CRITIC熵权法构造金融压力指数,并分别从城投债利差和相对发行规模两个角度测度中国地方政府债务风险;通过TVP VAR模型实证分析地方政府债务风险对金融压力的溢出效应,以及重大突发事件冲击产生的影响。研究结果显示：第一,地方政府债务风险对金融压力始终具有较强的解释效力,并且基本上呈现正向影响;第二,2008—2012年,地方政府债务风险对金融压力溢出作用的主要源头为债务利差的波动,2016年以来则转变为债务规模的提升;第三,在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下,地方政府债务的信用风险与偿债风险对金融压力均具有正向冲击作用,整体冲击力度高于前期数次重大突发事件。因此,“十四五”时期的重要任务之一,就是进一步化解地方政府债务风险,有效阻断其向金融部门的传导路径,切实打好防范系统性金融风险的攻坚战。     

国家治理、地方政府性债务审计与经济安全

地方政府性债务因关系到区域财政金融安全与经济安全而受到前所未有的关注。新形势下,从国家治理角度来看地方政府性债务审计,可以全面深入地认识地方政府性债务的本质问题。要充分发挥地方政府性债务“免疫系统”功能,需要构建地方政府债务审计治理基本路径,建立健全地方政府性债务审计治理机制,防范地方政府性债务风险,维护国家财政金融安全与经济安全。     

Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia

As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a country that features endogenous risk premia, imposed by financial markets that evaluate the probability of debt default by governments. Endogenous risk premia arise by assuming, e.g., simple linear relations between risk premia and the level of debt. As a result the real interest rate on government debt can be written as a constant (measuring the risk-free real interest rate corrected for real output growth) plus an endogenous risk premium that depends on the debt level. We bring such an endogenous risk premium into Tabellini (1986) model and analyze the impact of it. This gives rise to a non-linear differential game. We solve this game for both a cooperative setting and a non-cooperative setting. The non-cooperative game is solved under an open-loop information structure. We present a bifurcation analysis w.r.t. the risk premium parameter.     

Relationship risk perception and determinants of the collaboration fluency of buyer–supplier relationships in public service procurement

Public service procurement effectiveness has been emphasized as a major challenge in recent years. Well-managed partnerships between buyers and suppliers are needed in this domain to achieve collaboration fluency and improve the effectiveness of procurement. The main objective of this study is to determine which issues managerial teams must emphasize when aiming to create a solid partnership based on pre-existing collaborative relationships. The originality of this study lies in the domain approached (public service procurement in social and healthcare services), as well as the variable it attempts to explain (collaboration fluency). The study investigates two major issues: firstly, how collaboration risk perception influences communication, trust, and the governance of a collaboration and, secondly, how these factors (communication, trust, and governance) affect collaboration fluency. The study is performed via a survey regarding the collaboration of the public sector with organizations from the private and third (non-profit) sectors within public service procurement. The empirical evidence was gathered with a structured online questionnaire that was sent to organizations from the private and third sectors that provide services in the social and healthcare domain. The results indicate that in collaborative relationships in public service procurement, the higher the perceived relationship risks are, the more positive effects they will have in terms of increasing trust, communication, and the quality of collaboration management. Furthermore, communication, governance, and administration have strong influences on collaboration fluency.     

政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道

基于1960～2010年113个国家的面板数据集,运用系统广义矩动态面板方法和稳健性分析,比较发达国家和发展中国家政府债务经济增长效应的差异,并尝试分析政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。研究结果显示,政府债务对经济增长有非线性影响;发达国家政府债务对经济增长、投资以及全要素生产率均无显著影响;发展中国家对政府债务的直接承受力更弱,但在一个宽松的临界点内,政府债务的增加可以提高投资率。     

基于模糊综合判断法的地方政府债务风险评价

世界性的金融危机让西方许多国家面临严重的主权债务危机,地方政府债务危机成为世界不稳定的因素之一。近年来,我国地方政府债务风险逐渐增大,2013年IMF、穆迪、惠誉及高盛等外资金融机构均发布了对中国地方政府性债务的警示报告,指出我国地方政府性债务存在失控风险。文章回顾了国内外政府债务风险评价研究现状,建立了地方政府风险评价指标体系,并试图通过模糊综合判断法和层次分析法建立地方政府风险评价模型,最后就我国某市地方政府债务指标进行实证研究,以论证模型的可行性。